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I actually think the new bull is starting now. eom
How is the fed going to sell treasuries with interest rates below 1% to fund the trillion in bailout? Who's going to buy a 10 year note with a yield under 2%???
Buzz
Your mother was awesome last night. eom
Did our new bull market start this am?
who's catching these days?
great quotes, raw. thank you. eom
Well, maybe in a "less abundant" holiday season, people can focus on what's really important - the people you care about. Instead of spending a bunch of money on presents, just appreciate being close to them.
Buzz
Pretty close on oil and gold. Your dow is off just a bit unless we can get a 5000 point rally in the next few weeks.
Buzz
Your face. eom
I am gonna buy me some ebay for long term. If we go into heavy duty recession, people are gonna be selling a lot of their shit.
Buzz
SO?? eom
You and raw shouldn't be so confident until this pans out. The dow closed flat for the week. All today's rally managed to do was close the gap from Wednesday's open. We've given back, to the penny, all of Monday's gains. Hard selling into the close. This is not a bull market. Bull markets don't give back all of their gains. They hold them with higher highs.
We may be in the process of bottoming, and in consolidation with accumulation beginning, but it's far to early to say a bull market has begun. Especially since we closed flat for the week. All we've managed to do is NOT set a lower low.
Early next week will be decision time. We're in a bear pennant at current time. We need to see a break of the down TL that's around 10,000, maybe 10,200 right now, with heavy volume, then a back test of that same TL as support, and then we'll have a bull market.
I do love the 400 point up, 400 point down days. I get nothing but long signals in the am, and nothing but short in the afternoon. Makes for very fun and profitable trading in the futures market.
What you guys don't get is, I don't care. I have no emotional attachment to anything the market does, because I'm flat at the end of every day. I just trade the very short term intraday trends. Nothing more, nothing less. And then I sleep very well and just don't care what happens overnight. Then I wake up and do it again. But I don't want to see people lose money cause some jack off tries to call the beginning of a new mega bull. Especially one who hasn't lived and traded through a real bear market. Raw at least did that, and very well, from 2001 to 2003. We were side by side on that one. But make no mistake. Monday was nothing but a snap back. All of the gains have been given back. It's now time to see if we can rally off a slightly higher low, on very heavy volume.
Buzz
I believe a new bull market started about an hour ago ........................ OOOOOPS, it's over now.
Buzz
Start your 10 months from where the bear technically began, because that's where those statistics count from. The bear didn't technically begin at the decline from the top. That's correction. Mark your 10 months from the point the dow declined 20% from the high.
Buzz
u guys need to accept the fact, as we did in 2001, that we may well have another year left in this bear.
Buzz
You're wrong in your comparison -
we were already in a bull market when black monday occured. it wasn't in the middle of a one year long bear market.
the third, fourth and fifth days after black monday, the dow gave back all of the gains from the two days you mentioned and double bottomed (within 20 pts) from black monday's low. Then it consolidated for two days before moving back up.
The volume the day after black monday was equal to the volume in black monday itself.
Black monday was an anomoly, as were the days that followed, that was NOT in a bear market, and there was consolidation, accumulation, and then a steady rise marking the continuation of the existing bull market.
Buzz
No, actually, futures were down in negative territory already. And I said this the day of the big rally. Nothing but a snap back. Most suspect was it happened on a day the bond market was closed.
Generally speaking, bull markets do not have rallies like that, and they never begin with days like that. Those days occur in bear markets, and at the very very end of bull markets - buying capitulation.
Most obvious was volume in futures on Monday. It was the lowest in two weeks. Snap backs aren't caused by buying. They're caused by short covering.
Buzz
I hope you now understand the difference between a new bull market, and a bear market snap back.
1st clue? The snap back happened on a day of volume less than any previous down day.
2nd clue? It was on a bank holiday.
3rd clue? No consolidation or accumulation prior to the move up. Just "snapped" up.
Buzz
The new bear, following the snap back, was born yesterday, October 14, at 9:51am edt.
See ya 7500.
Buzz
Bull markets never have rallies like yesterday. They have orderly rises based on accumulation, rise, profit taking.
Buzz
The ES set volume records on 4 consective days last week, and I traded all of them.
I will say something odd. I found last week incredibly stressful. Today was just as volatile, although volume much lower, but seemed fun somehow. I had more trades last week, mostly short, but at the end of the day, I felt filled with anxiety. It's no fun to see a crash, even if you're making money on it. It's much more fun when it goes up.
Buzz
Agreed - I think it's less about the dollar being good, but foreign currencies finally catching up as they've been hit with financial difficulties.
Just like commodity bubbles are bursting now. Hey, how come oil is down at 80.00 a barrel, almost 50% from the high, but gas prices are only down 20%????????????????????
Buzz
I think just about everything is overshooting, lol, and there's a major down trend line at 10K with nothing in between.
Buzz
One thing is for sure, we have all just witnessed and been a part of market history in the last two weeks. A 2500 point drop in the dow, followed by a 900 point up day. Unbelievable.
Buzz
A bear market rally is sometimes defined as a rise of at least 10%, but not more than 20%.
Notable bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index in after the 1929 stock market crash leading up to the market bottom in 1932, as well as throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s.
That's actually wrong. Both should be on very heavy volume. Oddly enough, the trin was bearish virtually all day, which is a measure of breadth based on volume. So while breadth based on advance decline was very positive, the volume behind that didn't confirm.
Buzz
No it's not. My post is saying this is a bear market rally, that I think will top around 10,000, then head down.
Buzz
Let's not get too excited yet:
Today was a bank/bond holiday.
The market had reached oversold levels literally beyond the scope of many technical indicators.
Volume today was much lower than any day last week.
This is a classic bear market "snap back" rally. I expect it to continue to about 10,000, then we'll at least go back to test the lows.
The es was a blast day. Anytime you saw a dip, you bought and held for about 20 points, lol.
Buzz
Has the new bull been born yet today? In answer to your question, where are we supposed to make money, vegas is always an option. Lot safer than the markets, recently anyway.
Buzz
I really had to laugh at cnbc the other day. The daytime chick, not Maria but the other cute brunette, asked a guy if the Dow was going to keep going down 500 points a day.
The guy, very smugly and kind of like "oh my what an idiot you are" said, and this was around dow 9500 "Well, obviously not unles you think the dow will be at 0 in 19 days".
I just laughed and laughed and laughed. The dumbfounded look on her face was priceless.
Buzz
band aids are cheap tho lol
The issue becomes, where do we stop on the Dow if the october 2002 low is taken out. That answer is possibly, ugh, 4000. If several of the airlines and GM go BK, and the insurance companies are in a lot more trouble than we thought, well, that's not a longshot.
Buzz
If you're liquid enough to tough it out for 2 years, I might go in with 10 to 20 percent here, then scale in for a bit.
Several very good technical analysts are projecting s and p 500.
Buzz
I'm watching the ES right now, currently at 874 DOWN 50 points right now from the close.
Buzz
We're a long long way from a new bull. We have to have a bear market rally snap back soon, and it will be a large thrust, but then it will grind down again, IMO.
Don't try to pick a bottom. Wait for confirmation.
Buzz
Uglier, s and p down 40 points from the close right now. Nikei is down 10%. We may see 7500 tomorrow.
Please, be careful.
Buzz