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Hamilton was a member of the House when I was there. He was respected by all, including Republicans. I have not been surprised at all by his performance on the 9/11 commission. And of course he was Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Most important, though, is his integrity. He can be counted on to tell the truth. It is impossible to imagine him using "Slam dunk!" the way Tenet did.
When I think about staff and cabinet I can't help but see an erie similarity between "the best and the brightest" who got us into Vietnam (and needed an old curmudgeon like Clark Clifford to turn things around) and the present crowd, Rumsfeld, Rice, Wolfowitz, et al. But Johnson listened to Clifford. Bush probably wouldn't. Even if he had one.
Bootz, there isn't a plan. There should be.
You're right that the Republicans have completely abandoned any pretence of fiscal responsibility. If it weren't for 9/11 that would be the defining issue for me. Do I want to saddle my children and grandchildren with more debt? No. But this is now. It does my kids no good to have a lower debt if they're not alive to enjoy it. So with a son who works in NYC and watched the twin towers from his office window, national security is the defining issue for me. And what I saw of the Democrats on this issue during my time in the House (1973-1988) makes me very skeptical that they are up to it.
I can't vote for Bush because the people he appointed failed us and him, and there is no sign he understands this or intends to change it.
I won't vote for Kerry until and unless I know who he'll appoint. Try Cohen at Defense, Holbrook at State, Rubin at Treasury, Lee Hamilton at CIA, and Hillary at Justice. Would you mention these names next time you talk with him?
Bootz - The comparison is with Gore because that was the choice in the real world, ie, the election. And yes, I'd vote for Bush over Gore today. In fact I'd take McCain over Bush, but that's not a choice we have or are going to have in the real world.
As for Powell he is a decent and honorable man, but in these times I want my President to have the qualities that Chuck Yeager said were necessary in a fighter pilot,"The eyes of an eagle and the instincts of a mongoose."
As for self-respecting Republicans, I'm touched by your concern. But I'm also reminded of the remark by Disraeli, "My idea of an agreeable man is a man who agrees with me."
Bootz - Assuming your care...
Stevenson was UN Ambassador under Kennedy and during the Cuban Missile Crisis. He was never hung out to dry, at least as I would use the phrase, but became an increasingly marginal figure, mainly because be chose to take a position during the Cuban missile crisis that was accomodationalist to an extent that it couldn't and wouldn't be considered by Kenndey and his circle. He was hurt when his posiiton was leaked to the press by Assistant Secretary of State Roger Hillsman with the words "Adlai wanted a Munich."
UN Ambassador during the Powers/U2 caper was Henry Cabot Lodge. He was a player and never in that position that I can remember.
Master of the art of hanging people out to dry was of course Henry Kissinger when he was National Security Advisor. He had his own exclusive channels to the President and key people on the hill, and lesser players like the Secretaries of State and Defense didn't know what was going on unless and until they read it in the papers.
Still watching QCOM. Now 38.71. Would like < 37 but will definitely wait for < 37.5. Always have strike prices and CCs in mind. QCOM has very nice premiums.
Truly sorry about Clinton because I always admired his political instincts and his ability to bring extraordinary people into government, ie, Bob Rubin. Bush and Clinton are both superb campaigners. THAT would be a good matchup.
Kerry simply doesn't have the instincts of the natural politician. In this regard he reminds me of Ed Muskie. "He thinks too much. Such men are dangerous."
Of course, but *which* scars?
ljk - Nicely put.
Lango - "Flawed" is not really the right word.
Their method is transparent, and as a method of valuation I can't argue with it. The difference is the market psychology that attaches to each individual stock. You are right that the odds of seeing a 40% discount are miniscule, because AAPL has a market psychology that defies conventional valuation.
I'm not trading AAPL now but am trying to buy QCOM at or below 36. Very frustrating. Similar psychology. Reminds me of the old "War of the Worlds" where they are looking at the aliens' ship and one says to the other "What's holding it up?!"
In the case of AAPL and QCOM the answer is that people believe. Morningstar can't and doesn't try to value that.
08:03 AAPL Apple shares could be impacted by new iMac -- Piper Jaffray (34.12 )
Piper Jaffray believes that that the significance of the change in the iMac design will impact AAPL shares as investors begin to anticipate greater-than-expected iMac upgrade numbers. Co finally introduced the G5 iMac at the Apple Expo in Paris, which was widely expected by the Street. Apple announced three models, ranging in price from $1299-$1899. The old iMac started at $1799 so it appears to the firm that Apple is targeting a mass market with the new model. Firm feels that the ongoing rebound in the creative pro mkt will impact Apple sales. Also, they view last qtr's results as the first evidence that adoption of iPods has been improving underlying demand for Macs, and expects this trend to continue, bolstered by the international launch of the iPod mini.
LOUD Loudeye management meeting was positive
Ferris Baker Watts (1.19 ) 09:22
Ferris Baker Watts has been on the road visiting accounts with the CFO of Loudeye. The firm has been encouraged by the additional info garnered on the trip and by investors' responses to the co's story. The biggest surprise to investors seems to be the co's newly acquired Overpeer anti-piracy business. When acquired, the co had annual revs of $1.5 mln. Already, Loudeye has the co at a run rate of more than $5 mln per year.... Loudeye will be late in filing its 10-Q. The firm received an in-depth explanation of the issue that caused the postponement, and is very comfortable assuring investors that there is no reason for concern. The rumor mill is heating up with talk that Microsoft (MSFT) will introduce its online music service as early as this week. Microsoft's entry into the market, along with the pending introduction of its Janus digital rights management system is a major step for the industry toward the acceptance of new devices (aside for the iPods) and open music formats.
Linda - I hope for a very pleasant surprise someday.
My fear is that LOUD like SPAZ will always be just a niche player with significant profits always just around the corner.
Chavez Apparently Survives Recall Vote
By ANDREW SELSKY, Associated Press Writer
CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez survived a popular referendum to oust him, according to results Monday, while Venezuela's opposition swiftly claimed fraud.
Backers of the leftist populist president set off fireworks and began celebrating in the streets of the capital in the pre-dawn darkness upon hearing the news from Francisco Carrasquero, president of the National Elections Council.
Carrasquero stopped short of declaring Chavez the outright winner. But vote counts he released showed the firebrand former army paratrooper had a virtually insurmountable 58-42 percent lead, with 94 percent of the vote counted.
* * *
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&e=2&u=/ap/20040816/ap_on_re_la_am_ca...
dileet - I hope your right on LOUD. To me they have looked like SPAZ did for a while; long on promise and relationships, but never able to make any real money. I have 5K LOUD shares in a drawer somewhere from a day trade gone bad.
dileet
The quality of the writing in the New Yorker is far above any other US periodical. It is a delight to read, even when I'm not particularly interested in the topic. I collect and read writings of founders EB White and James Thurber. Quality stuff.
I was immensely impressed by the NYT coverage of the Dem convention, particularly their ability to place it within the context and the limitations of the real world.
Linda - I must say I couldn't compare the two candidates "at this point." But my general memory of Gore was of a man who was constantly trying to reinvent himself and his campaign themes, trying to appeal to everyone and therefore appealing to no one. Bush simply couldn't have won that election on his own. The election was Gore's to win or lose.
I am immensely impressed by Kerry's realistic and restrained judgements on terrorism. He has been under tremendous pressure to pander to the left wing of his party, but so far as I can see has stayed squarely in the center. Of course I am no longer in the loop, and base these views on what I read, eg in the NYT, Atlantic, and New Yorker. And it may all be one gigantic spin. But it sounds genuine to me.
If he's got Rubin committed for the Fed or Treasury, then he should say so. That's the rare example of a prospective cabinet appointments that could influence the outcome of the election.
What's impressed me the most with the campaign so far has been virtually flawless execution. No mistakes. It is a vivid contrast to Gore 2000.
OT: NAACP vs Urban League.
It was very instructive to compare Kerry/NAACP with Bush/Urban League. Although Kerry said all the right things, he was flat and wooden and the response was perfunctary. Bush really connected. People continually look at his policies and conclude that he can't possibly connect with the middle class. They are wrong. In this regard, and in ths fact that he clearly enjoys campaigning, he is entirely different from his father.
I don't know anything about Laura. It's just my version of coalition government Seriously, though, I do think men and women are, to a large extent, genetically hard-wired for certain behavior that was essential to survival of the species. Men to be hunters, warriors, and sexual predators. Women to bear young and nurture and protect them. Women are better suited by nature to "disagree without being disagreeable," which is so lacking today. It is not clear, though, whether women can be cold-blooded and ruthless, as we will increasingly need to be in the years to come. But I'm willing to give it a try.
"Run the wives" was entirely serious, by the way.
There was a long article on Theresa Heinz Kerry several weeks ago (NYT? Atlantic? New Yorker?) which I found truly inspiring. She chose to make a real difference in the lives of ordinary people through her husband's charities, and rejected the ego and glamour of a Senate seat. And she's obviouslt got the guts to continue making those kinds of choices. Maybe I'll write her in, with Laura as VP.
Enjoying "Life the way it should be" in Maine.
And trying to find a choice in the election that I can be at peace with.
I won't even consider voting for Bush unless he dumps Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz.
I'm reading everything remotely objective about Kerry and while I getting more comfortable with him personally, there are still elements in the Democratic party who feed and feed on hatred and resentment, and for me bring back very ugly memories. The contrast between the NAACP and the Urban League is as good an example as any. And of course there is some of that here on this board. I'm simply not going to let my remaining years get uglified by that stuff.
Dump the husbands. Run the wives.
Ameritrade streamer AOK on FireFox. And I'm now on dialup.
Oops.
16:36 AAPL Apple Computer beats by $0.02, ex items, guides Q4 in line (29.58 +0.36)
Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.17 per share, excluding $0.01 charge, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.15; revenues rose 30.4% year/year to $2.01 bln vs the $1.94 bln consensus. Company issues in line guidance for Q4 (Sep), sees EPS of $0.17-0.18, ex items, vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.17, and revs of $2.1 bln, vs consensus $2.04 bln. IPod shipments were 860,000, Briefing consensus 876,000, with estimates ranging from 810,000 to 910,000.
16:32 AAPL sees immediate reversal after numbers hit; posts current qtr upside, but guidance just in-line to slight upside, Stock has turned around almost 2 pts since the number hit... currently trading at $28.86 in after hours
16:32 AAPL guides Q4, sees EPS of $0.17-0.18, ex items; Reuters consensus is $0.17
16:31 AAPL Apple Computer gross margins 27.8%, Briefing.com consensus 27.77%
16:31 AAPL prelim $0.17, vs $0.15 consensus; revs were $2.014 bln, vs $1.943 bln consensus
16:30 After Hour Movers: SNDK +17.9%, LEXR +10.1%, PLNR +7.0%, CNET +5.3%, AAPL +2.9%, CEC +1.9%... AMD -3.5%
16:26 AAPL trades up $0.80 in after hours, suggesting numbers are out
Market risk from safehaven.com
http://www.safehaven.com/article-1715.htm
Excerpt:
"...the psychological condition of the present equity market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average is fragile. The pattern tells us that crashes can occur from this type of price action over the period of time we have experienced. These analogs do not guarantee we are about to have a stock market crash, but they do tell us that we are in a position of high risk to have one."
Annie - For a quick fix just turn images off. I maintain a browser (FF) setup just this way for reading forums and boards.
Because I consider Richardson the Democrat best qualified to be President. I admit to a strong bias because I knew him as a member of the House, and knew that he had deep, genuine respect of his peers both as a person and a politician.
By instinct I like to hedge my bets, and I would like each party to nominate two persons I would be comfortable with as President.
Baggage? Who doesn't. Lewinsky? I don't know anything about Richardson comparable to that. If there is, please enlighten me.
NM Gov. Richardson Bows Out of Kerry's VP Race
A very big loss for Kerry. A very lucky break for Bush.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&e=3&u=/nm/20040702/pl_nm/campaign_ri...
tomm - Thanks so much for that post on IE.
I have many friends who use IE and will be much more likely to pay attention to a discussion of IE as a browser rather than a discussion of mac vs windows.
07:48 AAPL Apple Computer upgraded to Outperform at Piper Jaffray (33.70 ) -- Update --
Piper Jaffray upgrades AAPL to Outperform from Mkt Perform and raises their target to $40 from $32, saying the Street is underestimating the digital convergence opportunity; firm believes this theme will gain momentum among investors, and they believe that success in digital convergence will spark underlying demand for Mac products.
FF .9 working fine here under 10.3.4 on:
Yahoo
Briefing.com
Fidelity
IH
SI
macnn
macintouch
macfixit
In browsing, as in investing, us old folks are not very adventurous.
10:34 LOUD Loudeye started with a Buy at Ferris Baker; tgt $4 (1.56 +0.04)
Ferris Baker Watts initiates coverage of LOUD with a Buy rating and $4 target; firm notes that the co is the industry leader in the emerging industry of business-to-business digital music products; also, within weeks the co is expected to formally launch its new "white label" service, which allows any co to quickly launch an online music store. In addition, earlier this week the co announced its acquisition of On Demand Distribution, the leading European business-to-business digital music provider, and the combined co now serves more than 200 customers worldwide, including Microsoft Network, Coca-Cola, MTV, and Virgin.
ljk FWIW I'm going to hold LOUD.
I have 5K @ 2.70 from a day trade gone bad at BrownCo and had just about forgotten about it.
In some ways LOUD reminds me of SPAZ in the early days. The question in both cases was/is pricing power and margins. I frankly don't know about LOUD but it wouldn't take much to make a nice profit.
ljk - From MF in LOUD
http://www.fool.com/Server/FoolPrint.asp?File=/news/mft/2004/mft04062306.htm
Loudeye Busts a Move
By Seth Jayson
June 23, 2004
Never have so many written so much about a business that makes so little but appeals to… so many. I'm talking about the music-download biz, a topic that excites finance writers, hackers, libertarians, and Silicon Valley execs alike.
We fools are as guilty as the rest, but the news on which I'm wasting precious bandwidth today is actually quite interesting. It could determine the fate of the music-download industry as we know it. Really.
A little-known and barely-above-penny-stock firm called Loudeye (Nasdaq: LOUD) announced yesterday that it would purchase the leading European music-download provider, British firm On Demand Distribution (OD2). You may remember our recent peek at OD2, which, together with Roxio's Napster, tried to steal a bit of the thunder rumbling about Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) European launch.
As opposed to much of the damaging and often meaningless posturing among download providers like RealNetworks, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and dozens of others, Loudeye's move has the capacity to really change the competitive landscape. The firm -- just like OD2 -- is something of a music-download "wholesaler," meaning it won't compete directly with those big names.
Instead, it licenses what it calls the largest downloadable music library on Earth and serves digital files, plus enabling software, to other firms that wish to take a crack at the download business. It last made big headlines when it announced a partnership with Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) to provide an inexpensive front end for prospective online stores.
Is there money in this business? Not yet. But with more than 100 music-download firms already in existence, and companies like Papa John's, Coke (NYSE: KO), and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) using downloads as promotions, there is definitely a market for what the newly enlarged firm can provide. Factor in future possibilities like phone ringtones and streaming video clips, and Loudeye is definitely worth a closer look.
For more Fool coverage of the music-download business:
* You call this service?
* Are dollar downloads dead?
* See how Apple profits off the pod people.
Fool contributor Seth Jayson has no position in any firm mentioned. View his Fool profile here.
10:11 AAPL Apple Computer target raised to $39 from $32 at Merrill Lynch (32.95 +0.62)
OT - 11:31 AAPL Apple Computer downgrade details (32.90 -0.01) -- Update --
As mentioned at 11:26, FTN Midwest downgrades AAPL to Neutral from Buy, as their checks suggest that while momentum remains positive, it is leveling off; firm also says that many of the product upgrades and new marketing initiatives have played out since their late March upgrade, and they note that the stock has exceeded their $30 target and has reached its highest point since early 2001.
OT - 07:04 AAPL Apple Computer estimates raised at First Albany (32.81 )
First Albany raises FY04-05 ests for AAPL above consensus, primarily due to higher iPod growth forecasts; firm expects reacceleration in Sept, driven by European ramps of iPod Mini and iTunes, as well as this summer's launch of the HPod; another highlight for AAPL is pending cash repatriation incentives in Congress, which would most likely be used for share buybacks.
MSFT takes another hit
Key quote "Likewise, security managers are routinely cautious in deploying patches to Microsoft software and other products. The patches are tested, and rolled out over a period of time. That caution be used by a plaintiff's lawyer to prove negligence. "They'd ask how much it would cost to install the patch? They'd say it doesn't cost much. You'd say it isn't just one patch, there are thousands of patches. But the jury just hears about the one patch," Rasch said"
Full text
Technology - TechWeb
Security Managers Could Face Court Penalties
Fri Jun 18, 8:00 PM ET
San Francisco - Routine efforts to improve network security could be used against IT managers in court, warned cybercrime attorney Mark Rasch.
Security managers who fail to secure their company's information could be making it harder to prosecute computer crime, said Rasch, who delivered a keynote at the NetSec 2004 conference here this week.
"For trade secrets to be entitled to legal protection, the person holding the trade secret has to demonstrate that they used reasonable efforts to ensure its secrecy," Rasch said.
And sometimes a security manager's efforts to secure information can be used against him by a plaintiff's attorney. For example, imagine that a security manager writes a memo listing 10 measures that must be taken to secure corporate information, and the company only implements two of them. "That memo is a plaintiff's lawyer's dream," Rasch said.
Likewise, security managers are routinely cautious in deploying patches to Microsoft software and other products. The patches are tested, and rolled out over a period of time. That caution be used by a plaintiff's lawyer to prove negligence. "They'd ask how much it would cost to install the patch? They'd say it doesn't cost much. You'd say it isn't just one patch, there are thousands of patches. But the jury just hears about the one patch," Rasch said.
Likewise, companies that generate security logs but don't look at them are letting themselves in for legal trouble, Rasch said. The corporation is presumed to be aware of the information contained in those logs.
Rasch is senior vice president and chief security counsel for Solutionary, a managed security service provider. He is former head of the U.S. Justice Department (news - web sites)'s computer crime unit, and prosecuted Robert Tappan Morris, who released one of the first Internet worms in 1988. Rasch also prosecuted the Hanover hackers, as described in "The Cuckoo's Egg," by Clifford Stoll.
Another problem with computer law is that laws are written so broadly that they criminalize normal activities, Rasch said.
"We define computer law so broadly that it covers things we never meant, and then we tell people, don't worry, you would never be prosecuted," Rasch said. There is no way to make the law so precisely worded that we prosecute only what we want to prosecute; we rely on prosecutorial discretion to stop unreasonable prosecutions. Computer crime is defined as unauthorized access to a computer, he said. By that standard, any time an employee violates a company policy barring personal use of the Internet, that employee is committing a felony - even if the policy is routinely violated and never enforced, Rasch said.
Scottstreamer works on FF 0.9! Goodbye IE!
Blue - I have the Kyocera 7135 SmartPhone. CDMA. Palm OS. Verizon wireless. Excellent coverage and reception. $400 purchase a year ago. Flawless sync with address book and iCal. I recommend it very highly. Friends wih other, less expensive systems simply prove that you get what you pay for.
Dump the husbands. Run the wives.
Theresa vs Laura. I'd vote for Theresa but could be very happy with Laura.
I met Theresa years ago at a fundraiser when her first husband was serving in the House of Representatives. I liked and admired her then and more so now. There are few people in public or private life who could match her record of service under extremely difficult circumstances.
I couldn't vote for Bush. But neither could I vote for Kerry. I know his brand of interest group liberalism all too well. At least with Bush I have the excuse that I didn't know what I was getting.
I'll write in Theresa Heinz and John McCain.