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Thanks Duma, much appreciated
Yes, I have only a small account to trade so I am trying to look for the smaller trades with the most leverage. 2002 I traded primarily options but the risk was indeed too high and led me to take a break from trading. Feb this year my pension had a cashout option so I moved the funds into an IRA, so no margin and no options other than covered calls available to trade.
2002 I worked on the MKTSS Plan with Options and it Worked but only if I was really disciplined to follow it, which I wasn't, and I took the higher risk short term option trades. Since Feb this year I have been looking at different Index stocks to use it with and decided on TNA/SPXU, primarily just for the leverage. I could make smaller trades and have the highest return. I have been looking at other's boards who have been trading SPX, for some reason no one trades DIA, and trying to determine what they are trading as far as underlying stocks and charts/trade triggers. I was looking for trend following systems but have found that with the Markets volatility I am back to doing short term swing/daytrades much as I was with the MKTSS Plan, though this time with 3x funds. I am hoping to eventually get approved for options just for the fact that I would not have to risk so much on a trade, limited investment/limited loss but still high return potential. Until then I am in the situation you mention, how much risk do I want to take and should I try to leverage that risk. When looking at the different funds SSO/SDS QLD/QID FAS/FAZ TNA/TZA I determined that most tracked fairly identical and TNA/SPXU were the easiest as far as share size per trade and $ movement for me to target. Yes, having some cash reserve when making the trades is also a factor as I am making withdrawals from my IRA at this time. When I am saying 'look at TNA' your response is exactly what I am looking for, much appreciated. I am still trying to determine why others don't seem to be trading it, primarily I see SSO/FAS traded. If it were something like, the funds settle faster, the fund is more inline with SPX, the fund has a fixed stock base that you know,the fund has a lower margin, the fund has a dividend, etc it would help but most just say 'this is what I trade and why do you question me'. If it is only the leverage then I can also understand that.
Yes, I have seen with the more extreme price movement of TNA/SPXU that getting in at the wrong timing can make for a more difficult trade. The lowered leverage funds are more forgiving if a trade does go against you, while still offering the better gains.
Right now my biggest downside is trade size and risk. Setting a stop on a TNA/SPXU trade has been difficult with the added volatility, and then I usually need to wait for the funds to settle before moving into another trade. I need to work more on setting up the trades using better money management. I have been trying to target 30% trades to keep some funds available for a direction change but a stop out or added position will often leave me waiting for funds to settle, as was the case yesterday. I don't have the skill to enter both on a trade and let one get stopped out and one hit it's target as the Markets volatility would most likely stop them both out imo.
So if you don't mind I have bookmarked your board and will look forward to some more informative posts on how you establish your trades.
Thanks again, Sincerely, Bob
I believe they track identical
That is why I would have thought you to trade TNA with the higher percentage of return.
For me when I am watching a chart/quote and a projected target it is much easier to identify with 44, 45, 46 than 73.50, 74.25, 74.75.
One of these days I might get to the point where I just trade the chart and ignore the pricing but not yet.
Also the lower priced TNA is easier for me to track the number of shares to target a profit, say 400 shares each $1 uptick is $400 rather than 200 shares and a 1.50 uptick is $300.
My mind doesn't like to work math.
Again, I probably should start focusing on the chart/price action rather than looking for targeted 'even' price/profit targets, as the Index support/resistance doesn't always offer up a nice round $ sign on the tracking stocks, but that is how I try to target most of my trades.
And, Yes, why not use the stock with the higher % of return since they track nearly identically?
Have a wonderful weekend
INDU 10 day chart
Really surprised at how tight the trading range has been this week.
Even though the INDU only moved 200 pts it sure felt like a lot more. I think a lot of it had to do with the extremes happening overnight?
Time to see if the Consolidation theory from the Ibox kicks in and we continue the trend to the upside eh?
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
Thanks Steve, looks Good
Yes, with next week being OEX things will most likely continue to be hectic. I was just looking at the left side of the bowtie and realized it did have a 'diamond' pattern to it after the whiplash Nov1 centered by the big red bar in the middle. If that were to repeat I would think OEX week a good place for it. If we shift the diamond from Oct 17th to this level then I can see where 1330 would be a 'potential' target for a high. I would be leaning more towards a double top at 1295 if we do break to upside from here. Just as around mid Oct I think watching any diamond setup for a break will be worthwhile, but the left end of the Bowtie has me wondering if we get some big headfakes towards the end of the month. Things will certainly be interesting if we trade similar to mid Aug to beginning of Oct, which I am anticipating, but that should mean a lot of range bound trades available.
Really appreciate the charts and hope you have a Fantastic Friday!
Ha Ha!
Yes, would rather be in the Ho Ho spirit than the Oh No frustration on Monday.
Enjoy the Day!
SP Futures overnight low 1223
To me the target has been met, but could be retested again, so now we are back to testing resistance at 1245/1250.
Seems that is the way things have been going?
Most of the moves are overnight and you need to try and trade ahead of them?
I am all cash and looking forward to a Wonderful Weekend, Enjoy!
Actually should say, partial SPXU position but sold Dec 13 Calls against them, only a small position, sitting at 80% cash.
The 'Bowtie'
Here is the chart with the 'bowtie' and you can see so far the tests of it's top and bottom range. I would anticipate this to continue up until Christmas.
Will I be making trades based solely on the trading range?
Probably not but I will certainly be keeping it in mind.
Also look back to Oct 17th and you can see the 'diamond' pattern there to watch for.
Monday's have been good for reversal days, so if we end up flat today then watch for where the Market opens on Monday.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
SP Futures 1230-1225-1245-1240
You can see in the FTSE chart the Futures morning surge and pullback. Wednesday we had the close near hod at eod and resistance, Thursday a close at lod at eod and potential support. Today it looks as though we might get some recovery but possibly close right in the middle of the two. Remember the diamond pattern mentioned before mid Oct and keep watching for the squeeze and which direction the market will break. Also we could be working on the 'bowtie' from RCKS chart, which means the continued whiplash until the Markets find a defined direction. For now the bias will be Bearish until 1250 is recovered as support. Just as when the MKTSS Plan is above the 100sma and the SPXU/ShortPut type trades are only held for 1-2 days the same applies here when under the 100sma that TNA/LongCalls type of trades should only be held 1-2 days. The pivot will be the 100sma and whether it is inclining/declining and holding support/resistance. As long as the Markets continue to be volatile and have the whiplash we will once again be range bound until a defined break and the 100sma is clearly inclining/declining.
For now the trading range has again been widened to 1230-1270 with 1250 the pivot. That leaves plenty of room for short term trades but make sure and use Stops and Profit targets to lock in and protect yourself against potential reversals.
Good Trading and have a Wonderful Weekend!
Euro vs USD$
Use [chart][ /chart] together no spaces
Insert the url directly between the two
Often called a Bull flag?
Thinking Longs might get back in if can setup a small inverted H&S here. Would watch for a break back above 1245/1250/1255. INDU holding 12000 was a major support level to hold imo.
Definitely use some Stops if looking Long or Short here.
Hi Ken, check THQI
It is trading around $1 today and I 'thought' it was a seasonal stock for December sales before?
Forecast was for weaker earnings but the stock has been severely cut.
I used to watch trading levels 1 2 5 10 and this one could make another run back to 1.50/2 as long at the $1 level holds on it.
Make sure and use some stops.
Let me know what you think or what to watch for as far as a reversal from here, thanks, Enjoy the Day!
SPX 1245 breakdown
Not looking good now unless it can be recovered
Plan now in Bearish mode until the 100sma can be recovered as Support again, for now Resistance. Would still continue to watch 1240/1245/1250 here for recovered support but jmho. INDU 12000 is critical support level, so far holding.
Yes, just another News spike
Right now it seems as though News is coming out to hold the Markets down so the Longs can reload.
The higher low along with the attempted breakout looks as though some upside is still anticipated.
I am seeing the potential for another week of upside into expiration but am uncertain after that.
Thinking downside the closer we get to Christmas, we shall see.
FTSE/Euro/SP potential double bottom
Looks as though we might get the same type of spike low this am as yesterday but with higher support. Would be a potential Long signal using the prior low SPX 1245 as a Stop. The Plan would use the volatility of the first hour of trading and 10:30 is a potential reversal period. Just make sure to use a Stop on any Long trades from here as the Markets have moved back below the 100sma.
My IRA is waiting for funds to settle so no trades for me.
Options would target slightly OTM Calls, again using Stop limit orders to protect against a continued breakdown.
Good Trading!
SP Futures 1265-1260-1265-1260
You can see the whiplash in the FTSE chart as the Futures are testing the new trading range. So far the support seems to be holding but no breakout of the resistance. We are back to the consolidation period like Mid Oct where the SP was stuck between 1190 and 1225, now 1245-1265. To me the narrowed trading range means limited upside from here but I see a lot of targets at 1300. Personally I would think 1280 as a cap but that is just my own speculation. We talked about the diamond pattern mid Oct and to watch for the break to upside or downside and I think we are back to that again here. The MKTSS Plan would be Bullish with the inclining 100sma and support above it. Just be sure to use some caution and good stops as the Markets volatility/whiplash looks to continue.
Good Trading!
Euro vs USD$
I am repeating it
I told everyone I knew in May 2001, mid 2007, and the middle of this year. Of course not a single one listened to me.
Why do I tell them?
Because no one told me the middle of 1987 and I was a huge bagholder come Oct 1987. So much so that I didn't trade or participate in the Markets from 1987 until 2000. And Yes, no one told me in 2000 and yet again I was a huge bagholder. So much so that I decided to learn Technical Analysis of Chart patterns and find out Why the big price swings and breakdowns. It took me 3 years of trading to make some attempt at Learning, some of which can be seen in the early MKTSS board posts. But I still had not learned enough by the beginning of 2003 and once again left trading behind, mostly due to lack of discipline and high risk options trades. The MKTSS Plan did Work but I was just not disciplined enough to follow it, took the higher risk short term trades and failed to use good stop loss orders. When I cashed out my pension the beginning of this year to get back into trading I even told my Broker 'get ready for some Market downside as my "timing" had been perfect so far entering the Markets in 1987 and 2000-2002. My trading account funded in mid Feb and I was right back into the old Bearish market that gave me so many 'learning' experiences. This year has been a lot of 'deja vu' to those prior bearish years and Hopefully this time I will have the discipline to stick to the Plan. I have found out throughout the year that I am still too much of an Emotional trader and am still not sure I have what it takes to be successful at this. So out of All the hard lessons learned I think the Most useful one is just as you are trying to say 'Be Safe', as I know in the past I, and many others, have not.
Good Trading!
Max Pain rally day back to 2003/2002
I am pretty sure we started targeting these back in 2002 as Ihub search I found two from 2003 and one from 2002. When did da-cheif start calling them WWW days?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=1543739&txt2find=max|pain
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=529123
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=529060
Mid Oct type trading imo
Today was a near identical trading pattern to the Max Pain rally day mid Oct when SPX retested 1190 for a double bottom buy at support.
In my opinion we either mirror the recent bowtie or the diamond from mid Oct here and break to the upside. I think that would be in line with Tom DeMark looking for a top near Dec 22nd and Bradley turn date Dec 28th. We should at least get 8 more days of whiplash finishing with a spike high like Oct 27th, but could be a doji followed by a steep selloff rather than a bullish day.
So personally I think today will be the middle day to a diamond pattern similar to mid Oct Max Pain rally day, we shall see.
If you still have the diamond pattern trading chart you might want to post it.
Good Trading!
Mid Oct type trading imo
Today was a near identical trading pattern to the Max Pain rally day mid Oct when SPX retested 1190 for a double bottom buy at support.
In my opinion we either mirror the recent bowtie or the diamond from mid Oct here and break to the upside. I think that would be in line with Tom DeMark looking for a top near Dec 22nd and Bradley turn date Dec 28th. We should at least get 8 more days of whiplash finishing with a spike high like Oct 27th, but could be a doji followed by a steep selloff rather than a bullish day.
So personally I think today will be the middle day to a diamond pattern similar to mid Oct Max Pain rally day, we shall see.
If you still have the diamond pattern trading chart you might want to post it.
Good Trading!
Found a couple old boards
I thought that there was one more but I can't find it.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1442
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1281
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1320
Is LG still around?
Sorry to see that Zeev has passed :(
Yes, Options=Time
I know what you mean as I used to trade short term options and holding for any period of time can lead to a big 0 on a trade if the Markets have any kind of substantial reversal.
Northam has posted before about the overall Bullishness of the Markets over time so he has developed his system to Hold the Long trades for a considerable amount of time and only Hold the Short trades for a Short time, Longs weeks to months, Shorts days to a week. Historically it is a correct way of trading the Markets, just as long as you don't buy at the highs or reversals. That has been the case this year, some buys near the high without hitting a Sell trigger and buys on the reversal without hitting a Stop signal. So now the trades he is still holding become Long term trades waiting for the historical trend to offer some recovery.
I have been looking at the Cycles system more for the shorter term trades, days to weeks, and the reversal signals seem to work fairly well. I look more for changing from Phase 2 bullish to Phase 1 bearish and back on the Weekly chart, but don't hold the trades more than a week using the short term indicators from MKTSS as reference.
If you follow the trade triggers using the Close above the UTL, Close below the LTL and the moves back into the middle trading range it might help, as to me these are the reversal points.
Good Trading!
Ah, I remember Da Cheif :)
Don't think I have been over to SI since 2001 lol.
I thought he had a board here for a while?
Right now I am remembering the last Max Pain rally day when SPX had the gap down to 1190 support and then rallied into eod. I don't want to be stuck with SPXU on a repeat of that, especially with SPX low right at prior targeted support 1245, SPY 125.
The covered Calls will keep me in SPXU to 12.65 and still break even from the 13.80 hod.
For now the speculation is some repeat of why it is called Max Pain Rally day, so playing it Safe.
Hi Sam, maybe I can help
Northam's system is strictly trend following, primarily bullish trends and secondly bearish trends. It was not ready for the Market whiplash after July. Prior to July this year he had no Buy Blockers to keep him from buying into a Market Bearish reversal, so a couple trades bought into the mid year downturn. Those are the losing trades that he is holding, he also has a rule not to sell for a loss if he can help it. He has since established some Rules to help him not get stuck holding too long and prevent him from buying into a reversal. I think the new rules are good ones and will help with his system. I tried to discuss some type of stop orders for his system but the triggered Sells he has had in the past have Worked for him so he is standing pat on them.
Hope this helps to explain the loss for him so far this year.
Good Trading!
Exit 3/4 SPXU at 13.70
Looking like some potential support for QQQ here so taking some off the table. Might look to sell Calls on remaining, will see if Markets follow FTSE to lod at eod or we bounce here.
Sold Dec 13 Calls on SPXU at 1.15 for remaining shares.
Would be in line with MKTSS Plan taking advantage of 1st hour of trading on a gap.
SP Futures 1255-1265-1260-1250
Not sure what the News is other than the Euro dropping.
I think it is Germany's Merkel won't agree to merging fund bailout.
Looks like Steve's WWW day is off to a Wild day.
So far FTSE is looking like a trend down day, we shall see.
QQQ premarket low 56.83 below yesterday's low of 56.90, watch for breakdown/support there
Thanks Steve, I like it
Yes, I am hoping we get a mirror to the other side of the bowtie so that we can get at least one good test of lower support. If we could get 2 tests of lower support before OEX that would be even better.
11.2% 5.56% and 17-22 trading days?
DeMark is the Guru of Fibonacci and you can hear him repeat this but I never understood Fibonacci numbers. Then he starts talking about 13 and 7-8? I believe the Markets here from the Nov low it has been 7 trading days? Not sure how the 7-8 trading days he mentioned changes to 17 up and 22 down? Perhaps someone with Fibonacci background can explain? One thing you probably didn't see in the posted chart was that the first 17 day rally had a substantial pullback midway before resuming the 17 day to upside. I still think we get that midway pullback, but just my own speculation.
Here is MACD info
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve
It helps to give an idea of the Momentum imo of the price movement.
It is related to the Moving Averages so if you have a positive moving MACD the price movement is moving in a positive trend. The higher the divergence the more Momentum the Markets have. When the price movement begins to stall the MACD will start to decline, or reset to zero, as the Momentum is lost. Once the MACD crosses below the midline and starts to move below it then the Price action is showing a negative trend. Again the divergence of the MACD to the downside will indicate Momentum of the trend.
If you look at the MKTSS board iBox take a look at the INDU and SPX charts and you will see where the MACD is now making a 'reset to zero', which is an indication that the consolidation in the Market is losing it's upside momentum. If the MACD continues to decline below 0 then the Markets could gain momentum to the downside. Typically the MKTSS would look for a 2nd or 3rd MACD crossover as a change of direction. You can see in the MKTSS chart the MACD has had 3 negative crossovers from the last 4 days. With the MACD back to 0 the Markets are back to Neutral as far as the Momentum of the trend. Any further break to downside or upside from here is uncertain until the Price, MAs give the MACD some inclination of movement. For me the crossovers are critical leading indicators, which for now tend to lean towards downside from here, we shall see.
SP Futures 1245-1250-1260
Once again the Euro reverses overnight. It was back to resistance but helped by German factory orders showing strength. Again you can see a potential double top in the FTSE and the Euro testing at 1.34. Possibly just a bear flag on the Euro so would watch 1.34 for support or breakdown. Once again SP back to watching 1240/1250 as the support levels with 1260 potential resistance. Again the anticipation is a double top selloff to retest support, we shall see.
QQQ premarket high 57.55
Thanks Steve, looks good
Yes, I totally agree with the topping black bars for a potential repeating pattern here to downside.
Yes, the Euro speculation could get another puff of sunshine before the week is out.
Yes, I really hate that most of the speculation/reaction happens overnight and we are left either ecstatic we picked the right trade or left holding the bag on a reversal.
Still hoping I can get some kind of swing trade going but a morning gap might be worth it to lock in some profits.
So far the Euro chart shows yet another breakdown, but would not be surprised to see another bear flag uptick tomorrow.
We saw a lot of steps on the bounce coming up that I think will repeat going down.
Did you see the next big Bradley turn date is Dec 22nd?
Of course it isn't specific as to upside or downside but I would be a bit shocked if we get downside until then, but it is possible.
We shall see
One of your older charts
This chart seems to have the DMI/ADX crossover and MACD negative turn we normally look for with the MKTSS Plan? Is there any significance to the declining ramp of the CCI and peaking Stochastic much like early November? I know some traders follow the declining CCI ramp as a weakness indication, lately nearly a H&S type pattern. I am not sure if it is similar to an MACD reset to 0 though?
Was on the road this am
Tough to get a swing trade to downside here, need to stick to intraday I guess. Now I am wondering if we mirror that bowtie wedge early Nov here? Still looking a lot like early July except we are cycling from the bottom here rather than the top. It certainly Looks like an Oct type rally but Oct we were a long way from resistance. I still anticipate we trade much like mid Aug-end Sept with a lot of whiplash but the Markets just don't want to listen to me lol.
Ditto, Euro 1.345 resistance
Interesting to see the Euro bear flag in a much lower trading range yet the Markets are right back where they were Friday?
Will have to see if we get a breakout at 1260 or another pullback to support.
I can vouch for Pokersam
The board was literally 'hijacked' away by negative posters who failed to agree. The board got caught up in too much 'politics' and opening the Mod feature just let the antagonists take over the board.
Really disappointed that this happened to Pokersam's board and hope it can be cleared up somehow.
Sincerely, Bob
Hey Poker, sorry to hear it
Did you remove all the Ibox and sticky stuff?
I hope you start a new board and leave out the (SPY)
That way it can't be tagged as a Stock board, and preferably a premium board, so it can't be hijacked and you will be back in control.
I think it was a terrible mistake for Ihub to intercede in how the boards have been running.
You put a Lot of work into this board and I really appreciated the insights.
Hope you can get something working again.
Until then Take Care and Good Trading!
Sincerely, Bob
Looks like a Good signal
I don't know of any scans that would target that, but definitely something worth watching
Great posts Gleno!
I enjoy reading most Everyone's posts but especially those from posters with Good information.
Keep up the Great work :^)
Prior to Euro drop, LOD at EOD and Support
I was looking for another LOD at EOD and Support at SP 1245 but the Euro waterfall has me thinking possibly more downside here. If we close below 1250 but above 1245 we could still move either direction next week. Below 1245 close and Markets could get spike low on Monday.