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How about comparing Ariad to perhaps a CELG? Or maybe even ALXN? Are those within the realm of possibility in the next few years? Let's say 3-5?
That's a fair comment. Let's see what becomes of 113.
I apologize for the incite typo. Iphone spell check is a pain in the ass.
I am curious. What are your reasons for NOT lightening up?
I guess 15.75 is your last entry huh?
If you are looking for a better performing investment in this awful market, you might want to consider putting it down on a hard eight at the crap table. That pays 8 to1
I agree that Novartis prob isn't buying Ariad anytime soon, but I have been wondering something.
If/when Ponatinib is approved, what becomes of Tasigna and Sprycel?
We know the value in generic Gleevec, but why would you prescribe the 2 line drugs when Ponatinib clearly shows better efficacy?
Maybe I am missing something here. Interested in feedback.
You know what I'd really like?
To wake up Monday a.m. (Merger Monday) and see a $35.00 bid on the tape for ARIA from some desperate pharmaceutical dinosaur.
Bth is almost as bullish as me
Are you Aware of the sell the news phenomenon?
IF ANYONE HERE IS INVESTED IN THIS COMPANY FOR TODAY, TOMORROW OR NEXT WEEK, I STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU FIND ANOTHER COMPANY B/C DEW AND RACHEL ARE CORRECT IN THEIR ASSUMPTION THAT ARIAD IS CURRENTLY FULLY VALUED! YOU DON'T VALUE ANYTHING FOR 113 YET BECAUSE THERE IS TECHNICALLY NOTHING PROVEN AS OF YET.
IF YOU ARE NOT HERE FOR THE LONG TERM TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PONATINIB AND 113, YOU ARE GOING TO BE IN FOR A ROUGH RIDE. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS COMPANY TO DEVELOP FROM HERE.
PARK YOUR SHARES, MONITOR THE TRIALS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
Would you be so kind as to pass that "next front line molecule" stuff on to the insurance companies who will fight tooth and nail to make sure that title is given to generic Gleevec for as long as humanly possible.
The fight for the front line will be a difficult one regardless of the fact that Ponatinib is most likely as we speak best in class.
It's too bad the world is falling apart just when this company is really getting their act together. If 113 starts to show real promise, this has to be one of the most interesting munch targets out their. If the macro drags Ariad under, that would be an opportunistic time for someone to make a move. Obviously I'm just speculating at 1 am. Good luck tomorrow. Looks like we might need it the way the futures are trading.
EDIT: I also have a lot riding on this as well. Hence I guess why I am up so late looking for a some crumbs. Thanks to AF, maybe I can get some sleep now at least knowing that Ponatinib didn't s*%t the bed.
According to Feuerstein on Ponatinib:
54% major cytogenic response up from 47% in December
70% major cytogenic response up from 65% in the T315 subgroup
Pancreatitis unchanged at 6%
Full report in the AM. Good luck to the Ariad holders (and the non-Ariad holders as well) on the BV board.
According to Feuerstein:
54% major cytogenic response up from 47% in December
70% major cytogenic response up from 65% in the T315 subgroup
Pancreatitis unchanged at 6%
Looks good to me. See you in the morning.
So what you are saying is that you essentially top ticked it last year and now your mad that your only up 20 something %.
You must be joking, right?
Sorry, I thought there was a someone from Belgium here. What is the tax structure like for investing in Canada?
Oh right. Forgot that there are other countries besides America! Typical American lol
Whats the rate by you? Belgium is it?
That sounds like a lot of work. If you like the company, why not buy and hold a year for the 15% tax rate?
NAH, I am sticking around till this becomes the talk of the town.
If I was going to trade Asco, I would have done it with options.
This has nothing to do with anything in the abstract whatsoever. Look at the sector, everything is getting clobbered. Even the ones with great results.
This happens every effin year, but I am too effin stubborn to trade it. I think that is the definition of insanity.
EDIT: Now how about teeing up some nice long term calls for us like you have done a few times.
I am not so sure about the up today part. We could see the overall weaken into the weekend. My guess is the filthy animals are looking for QE3. Which may be coming sooner than I thought.
But who knows, you may be right. I can't tell you what Ariad is going to do today, just that it will be higher in a few years. I think. LOL
You realize that you are asking the opinion of someone who pounded the table that it would be $18 yesterday, right?
If T/A for biotech is accurate, shouldn't Ariad be trading at $20 today?
FWIW, the only reliable T/A indicator I have used for Ariad is pullbacks to the 50 day as a buy point. That has served me well over the last 3 years. The other thing that has served me well is walking away from the screen on days like yesterday.
Good luck
I have a feeling this is going down to the 50 day. Barring further market meltdown, $15-$15.50 would be a place I would put some money to work.
Just hoping we don't see a repeat of last summer's insane risk off move again. That was awful.
BTW, the post Asco dump is right on schedule. All bio's (even the ones with great results) are tanking. Every year I refuse to believe that it is going to happen again and every year it does. I can't believe that something could be that predictable, but it is.
DVAX is simply too strange to venture a guess as to what might be going on. They certainly are not signaling a buyout. Why accept such a haircut (roughly 15%) unless they are cash constrained, which they don't seem to be. Bizarre.
Moderator please erase my post. It was supposed to be private. Sorry
Dvax just got whacked. I like their story.
Dvax is my second largest position. Can you guess what is my first? ;0) My basis is fairly high at $4. I watched a nice gain go poof as well. I believe the ass kicking was a little perfect storm like scenario. They announced an offering and the CEO leaving on a bad market day where risk off was the flavor of the day. There was a decent size short position as well (19 million I believe).
I know they are doing the "go alone" dance, but I am thinking they are a pretty good buyout candidate.
Did you ever buy back in after the Rida back up? Wasn't much of a chance to grab it in the $14's. Hope you were able too. From the sounds of the last CC, sounds like they think they have the goods with 113. The patients on the Inspire board that are in the trial are going to be showing signs of efficacy soon. To my knowledge, one has already. The fact that these assholes on the Ariad board are posting links to cancer patients posts on a NSCLC board makes me sick to my stomach.
Regards, Joe
That's nice. Can you tell me where the PPS will be in 2-3 years?
That's the time frame that I am concerned about.
I also agree 100%!
Moderator these posts should be removed.
The time to make those kinds of pricing decisions is after product approval, when one knows exactly what’s in the label.
In 2010, NICE rejected Tasigna, but NVS evidently gave them a better deal this time
I want to see some '113.
Yes, it would be like large pharma to wait until ARIA is trading at $40, and then offer $65.
All in all, then, with a fair value in the $14.50 to $18 range and a current price of $15.75, Ariad is a stock that I'll continue to watch, but have no pressing need to buy today'.
But i have a big problem with HB. I don.t know how many conference calls i listened to about Rida this Rida that.
Now after the Rida fiasco i Don't trust HB. It seems a bit odd imo when everyone and everyone thought Aria would tank after the commitees review of Rida instead it went up. Why then the insiders ran for the door.
Drank too much CAB good night.
This is where BTH sold (between $14.50 and $15.50).
Why not sell in April instead of May. Just make sure to keep the second part of the deal and go away.
Actually I would be thrilled if the "going to $60 gut instinct" posts were gone as well.
How about this, you do this board a favor and don't post something from Yahoo predicting the price going down 30-40% on a "gut feeling".
So now we have people posting Yahoo message board predictions.
This board has become a rag. Enjoy watching every .05 move of this stock. Go ahead and delete the post.