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This sounds a lot like the reason ONTY went from $4 to $12 last summer.
(and then went back to $4 when the theories on paper, didn't pan out too well for investors)
Because 011 is highly specific to a certain subset of breast cancer, like TDM1, and would be complementary in Roche's portfolio, not a competitor.
Th current "trade" in small cap biotech is......"the bigger the scam, the higher the rise in share price" ergo, I fully expect a large spike in CYCC shortly.
Perhaps, but, I bet you could listen to about 10 or so biotech CEOs that are also saying the same thin, verbatim, with their programs (just change the drug name, and insert a different company name and its a well used biotech CEO script - especially the part of "we're in talks with multiple parties")
BMY, with their Medarex products, would be a nice partner....
...or they can just steal CLDX, like they did MEDX ;)
Regardless, small cap oncology companies have performed horribly the past month.
It is frustrating watching CLDX trade for ~$275-300 million marketcap - because, I really believe this company has one of the most impressive potential pipelines out there right now. Think about the programs this company has, of which 2 are late stage and represent big opportunities - and then think about some complete junk in biotech which is trading at comparable, if not much higher, market caps. Frustrating.
JQ, re your comment about Marucci. Understood. I just hope he knows how to juggle business development of 4-5 programs all at once.
What I really don't want to hear from Marucci is a script from the "Small Cap Biotech CEO Handbook, in 6 months:
"We wanted to do this financing so we could NEGOTIATE FROM A POINT OF STRENGTH with potential partners.".
Whenever I hear such a thing, the first few things that cross my mind are:
1. I am being lied to;
2. This CEO is likely incompetent;
3. They're not even close to partnering bc they either want too much, or no one wants to take a bite.
They'll probably be close to $65 million in cash (or less) ending September quarter. And around $50 million for the Decmber quarter. And $50 million in cash is when you start getting scummy hedgefunds like Adage Capital et al to play their shorting games because they know a financing is coming.
At least they have SABC in Decmeber, and, it's likely IMO, they finance then. I still do not buy this bit that they are in big talks with multiple partners (they prob ARE speaking with multiple parties, but the other party hold all the cards, especially when theyre dealing with an inexperienced CEO who has never had success in Phase 3 planning, follow-through etc). I have heard that from just about every small cap bio CEO - and, about 20% of the time, it plays out.
CLDX They finished the quarter with $78 million in cash and the CEO says this is enough to get them into 2014 (and they have 4 compounds in clinical testing, two of which are very late stage and require large money to run).
How does this guy think that the market isn't already anticipating a fund-raise in the not too distant future. Because, partnerships certainly don't spring up over night and I don't think there is a '011 partnership coming for at least the next 6 months (if that).
Roche would make sense with their diagnostics and personalized medicine approach, however, Genentech/Roche doesn't seem to have a great history of giving the partner deal terms which are generous to the partner.
Blade, I completely agree with you on this.
They need to retain as much as their best compound as possible. They should be working as hard as possible to unload Rindopepimut (if they even can) for some money. Hell.. they should be on the phone to Merck Kgaa at this point...those German Merck guys seem to want a piece of every crappy unproven compound and dole out plenty of money for them (not saying Rindo is crappy, but, you get the point).
I'd be very disappointed if they got $75 million upfront for '011. They'd piss through that rather quickly.
I would rather see them finance the company through secondaries and retain 100% of it, like Ariad has done with Ponatinib.
CLDX
As of June 30, 2012, Celldex had approximately 58.8 million shares outstanding.
Even if they floated an additional 15 million (to raise ~$100 million), that is still far well below the outstanding shares of 75% biotechs I follow.
I'd be fine with that.
I just don't want them to sign on shitty terms for '011.
I wonder if EXEL thought they were getting a good deal on their debt and then realized they were C rated and would be getting a 15% coupon.
If you were in charge of this company, and the bankers fcked this up, would you cancel the deal?
I certainly would. But, then again, this is Exelixis - for all shareholders know, next week they'll announce cabozantinib had dozens of SAEs and their shelving it.
This actually smells like existing shareholders (the top layers - FMR, T Rowe Price, etc.) were blindsided by this and decided to just dump their massive holdings in the company. If Morrissey had lied to these guys consistently about no need to cash, etc., and then goes out and pull this shit, it wouldn't surprise me to see large investors bailing.
The way the stock is trading, its either (1) large investors saying screw these clowns, I'm out, or (2) illegally shorting by participants of the convertible, into the placement.
Either way, someone messed up big time here - and it's likely bankers overpromising, and a brainless CEO Morrissey getting taken advantage of.
Either way, this company is about to have a capital structure among the worst of any developmental stage biotech in the USA after this deal.
EXEL
EXEL Financing
Does anyone have any experience where a banker has completely fkced up the deal so badly (in terms of broadcasting that a deal was coming, or overpromising subscription and guaranteeing it would be a hot deal in order to get a moron CEO to commit to financing which they necessarily didn't need), whereby, the company has pulled out of the deal and told the bankers to go screw?
At this point, Exelixis is getting a MUCH MUCH lower price from which the point where they announced this deal. Why wouldn't they tell the bankers to fck off?
Clearly this has been mishandled on all different angles.
Has this pig even priced yet? Or, are there just not enough funds out there that want anymore of this bloated pig?
Gotta figure, if theres a convertible debt deal, Deerfield is probably involved in a huge amount....which means one thing for the equity: company is a dead, zombi stock.
EXEL's capitalization at this point is a complete disaster (if youre looking at the share count and debt it holds).
It really is incredible - I have never seen a company produce so many compounds and have 90% of them go nowhere.
Can someone explain to me why this CLOWN Morrissey had $300 million in the bank in June, and is now raising at least another $300 million???
Are they doing THIS convertible deal to pay off old debt, or something?
Since when does a company with one drug, not even approved, need $600 million to keep the lights on?
It's simply amazing.
Complete bunch of clowns running that place.
It is just a lousy company with a management team in denial. Lots of promising compounds for sure - but when you move at a snails pace, it won't be until 2016 before they get marketing approval for any of their CUDC compounds.
They are weak, and very stupid and content with $500,000 salaries and having zero growth in the stock because they own almost no stock in their own company. It is unfortunate.
At least BMS got a good deal with their Medarex acquisition, lol.
What did they pay for the nuke drug? $2.0 billion?
I am convinced CRIS is garbage. Sick of waiting around for their incompetent management team to get their act together. Will be selling on any signs of strength as this company is a joke.
Entirely convinced that this company is going nowhere. Held this long enough and next time it shows any strength I am dumping my entire position in this one. It is dead money I feel for at least 1 more year. Lots of better plays out there with real catalysts instead of waiting for these idiots to delay their trials more. I have never seen a biotech company run things so incredibly slow. It is an absolute disgrace.
The CEO is just a terrible business person, and its clear that he has no idea what it takes to running a real biotech company.
Sleezy or not sleezy, ARIA and Ponatinib have given me nearly 2,000% on a lot of stock; I think they've done a fine job.
Seen a LOT worse. we're in the third quarter right now anyway...
Every blue-chip should be doing this exact same thing. Borrowing as much as they can get their hands on, for long duration.
NWBO is about the biggest bio-turd there is, on ANY exchange.
Their last 10_Q showed them holding $37,000 in cash.
The company is being funded by their largest shareholder.
Or .0000001 seconds if you're a high frequency robot.
Add BMS' Anti PD-1 drugs, albeit in early phase studies. But, these compounds are the real deal (more from Medarex).
I know these are off subject to your posts, but, should probably be worth noting.
Anyone ever wonder what a trillion dollars and an algo can do for large asset managers?
Here you go:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/wtf-skynet-chart-du-jour
LOL, maybe they read this board when someone posted the blurb from the 113 patient.
The Phase 1, was, essentially, a Phase 2....simply because there was so much evidence of efficacy in that one small Phase 1 study....it was VERY obvious the drug was doing what it was intended to do.
To be honest, I truly believe there is about, maybe, $1.00 being valued in 113 right now.
Rest is cash and Ponatinib, and about 50 cents worth of Ridaforolimus.
I don't think anyone has focused on 113 at this point - I think the reason you are seeing price target increases is because they are trying to factor in 113, as their old targets were fully baked Ponatinib and only Ponatinib.
Yes. It was big. 30-50% (but I am pretty sure the stock was at like, $1.75, then.
ARIAD price target raised to $23 from $20 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital increased its target on ARIAD as the firm believes that the potential opportunities of the company's '113 drug for ALK mutations will become clearer over the next 6-12 months. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.
Right... The good 'ol days when a .25 cent move was a 15% move in the stock >:o)
Apparently you weren't around when ARIA would trade 100,000 daily.
"Remain" what?
Independent?
INCY, IMO, will likely get bought at some point in the future as well. Just like MLNM and HGSI.
I wonder who's going to buyout DNDN now :o)
No CVR either. Wasn't HGSI's advisors saying the company was worth at least $20/ share just a week or so ago?