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Euro looks like its working on a key reversal.
Down big overnight but coming back strong.
My guess is the US dollar will begin another leg down soon. Probably someone knows what is up at FRE...
M.
That would be fine with me
Dow 10,000 with no economic improvement would probably equal about .80 on the dollar and 420 gold
M
Sandspring article -Fed-Induced Liquidity Rallies Past & Present
http://www.sandspring.com/charts2003/cdj061703.html
BONDS---
bonds falling is good for gold
Bonds are topped out. Major league
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB
Bonds going down a lot - stock market not going up
makes you wonder about the theory that bond money will go to stocks.....
M
Im liking the looks of little one TXCO. Good volume recently - nat gas play
Moves around a lot but under 4 seems good entry
Then you'll like this chart -g-
gives $60+ target on crude
http://stockcharts.com/snapshots/12455574.png
Drillers maybe worth a shot here RIG, GSF, RDC, KEG fwiw
Big pull back last three days. Longer term charts look bullish to me
M
Four week cycle chart calling for hard down on SP500 today . fwiw
M
<when the music stops (as Zeev says), I plan on being short.>
and I plan on being one of those left holding the bag on gold/silver -g-
M
Wow the Barron's cover is right!
The bull market is here!! Bears are silly and have a bucket over their head because they cant see why stocks are the only way to go now... -ng-
M
Will the magic hand come in at 3:30 and pull mkt up again, or will Fri 13th make it different?
Stay tuned -g-
M
FRE and a little astrology
http://www.sandspring.com/charts2003/cdj061103.html
Fed's putting the fox in charge of the hen house?
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030612/1713001217_2.html
What would be real interesting is if FRE/FNM were involved with gold swaps and they are about to get upside down on it all. Maybe that has something to do with the $370 gold cap?
Ahh, nice to dream -g-
Silver looking like a bottom imo
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?r=&type=future%2Cindex&symbols=SIN03&perio...
Anyone else get the feeling this market is going up out of desperation rather than for good reason? Acts like someone is afraid if it goes down at all its going to fall apart.
Don't like the vibes here.
d.
CEO and CFO of FRE were fired by the board?
No problem <g>
M
<Are you sure the market has topped out??>
Yes, I've been sure of it for four weeks now. <G>
From George Slezak............
especially like this part
"When I was trading in the pit every day, after I cleared my outbraves in the morning I would go to the health club to swim a half mile. While I was swimming I would recognize that there was a crowd in my head arguing the pros and cons of the market. I learned to follow a routine while swimming laps to try to clear my head of opinions prior to going into the pit to begin trading. As I swam, I would look down at the lane line at bottom of the pool and say to myself "follow the line." When I exhaled on my stroke I would say "opinions." Repeatedly saying "follow the line" and exhaling "opinions" was a very important ritual that I went though every day for nearly fifteen years of trading on the trading floor."
_______________________________________________________________
"PRINCIPALS AND PSYCHOLOGY OF DAY TRADING"
http://www.futurestradingschool.com/technical/psycho/psycho.htm
32. When the market is going up, say "the market is going up." When the
market is going down, say "the market is going down." Say it without
qualifications, no "buts" attached. This is a reality check, you'll be
amazed at how hard it is to say what is literally going on in front of you
when your mind is full of preconceived opinions.
You may be beginning to sense that I have a pretty strong opinion about
market opinions. I have a right to my view because I paid a lot of money
over time being distracted by hearing what other people think. It takes a
long time to understand the cost and effort it takes to over come
preconceived notions. As a day trader, you will eventually arrive at the
same conclusion. The question is how much will it cost you to come to that
conclusion, and can you survive the cost.
The thing I try to tell myself every moment of every trade is to say what
the market is literally doing at this moment. "I'm looking for a sell, but
right now the market is going up." It will probably keep going up, unless it
stalls and starts going down, but right now it is going up!
A moment later, what is it doing? It is going up, should I sell? Why would
you sell? Is it going down? No, it's going up.
A moment later, what is it doing? It seems to have stalled. I'll sell
because I am looking for it to go down. But is it going down? No!
A moment later, what is it doing? It is going up, I should not be short.
Cover your trade.
The point of the reality check is to be sure you are trading reality not
imagination. I do understand that many trades are made "anticipating" a
market turn. If that is your approach you need to be cold and calculating in
evaluating your expectation.
If you are anticipating a turn, at what price difference, or what time
difference will you acknowledge you are wrong. Be sure to determine that
before entering the trade. Don't allow those parameters to change once you
are in the trade.
There is nothing more foolish than a trader trailing his stop against his
position because he stubbornly thinks "I'll be right in just a few more
moments so I'll move my stop so I won't get stopped out."
When I was trading in the pit every day, after I cleared my outbraves in the
morning I would go to the health club to swim a half mile. While I was
swimming I would recognize that there was a crowd in my head arguing the
pros and cons of the market. I learned to follow a routine while swimming
laps to try to clear my head of opinions prior to going into the pit to
begin trading. As I swam, I would look down at the lane line at bottom of
the pool and say to myself "follow the line." When I exhaled on my stroke I
would say "opinions." Repeatedly saying "follow the line" and exhaling
"opinions" was a very important ritual that I went though every day for
nearly fifteen years of trading on the trading floor.
33. THE DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY: I've never had an opinion I didn't like,
however, successful day trading requires flexibility. Do your homework not
to develop a market opinion, but rather to understand the potential for both
sides of the market. This will allow you to make your trades based on what
the market is doing at the time of the trade.
I know the best approach for a day trader is to not have any opinions, but
if you find that you are continually bombarded with opinions that you just
can't shut out then a approach I have found helpful is to thoroughly think
out reasons for both sides of the market.
Let's say you think out that the market can be bullish for the following
five reasons. And you also think out that the market can be bearish for an
equal number of reasons.
The reasons for each opinion above should be thoroughly thought out, the
logic tested and the markets past movements in relation to past similar
events tested. Now you can with some degree of authority talk both sides of
the market at any moment.
For example, "Bonds are going higher so that is bullish for stocks." You can
study comparisons of the stock market and the Bond market and find many
times where that is true.
"Bonds are going higher (rates lower) and that is bearish for stocks." Again
you can study past market comparisons and find many instances where this is
also true.
Study these situations in great detail so you thoroughly understand that the
relationships can have a high positive correlation as well as a high
negative correlation all the way down to intra day turns on the five minute
chart. Now, no matter which side is working, you can use that information in
your trading without having the bias that the effect on the market will
always be the same way.
Think about the situations where the Fed raises interest rates. You will
hear all of the following:
The Fed raised rates and the market went down.
The Fed raised rates a quarter point, "as expected", and the market went up.
The Fed raised rates more than expected, which suggests the Fed will not
have to raise rates again for some time, and the market went up.
In a surprise move, the Fed raised rates more than expected, and the market
went down.
If you follow the news and results above, you will understand that the news
commentator is simply connecting two events that occurred the same day as if
there was a cause and effect relationship. He read on the news tape that the
Fed raised rates, and he read on the news tape that the market went down. He
simply reported them both in the same phrase.
I often squirm in my chair when I watch the nightly business new connect a
move in the transportation stocks to changes in the price of crude oil. On a
given day crude could rise a dollar, and the transports are up. The rise in
crude is not reported with the rise in the transports. The next day crude
drops a quarter and the transports are up again. The commentary is the
transports rose on the drop in the price of crude.
34. Here is a quote to remember: "When you wake up, your instincts are
wrong."
This means you have to try very hard, it is difficult, to get on the right
side of the market. What comes naturally is usually the wrong answer when it
comes to day trading. If it was natural 90 % would win rather than 90 %
lose.
Uh yeah
Havent figured out how to get Big Charts to post the chart I want yet. Always returns to some default symbo,anyway...
Substitute HMY , GFI, NEM, FCX in that 10 year chart and I think you see what I mean.
good trading
M.
Thx
Yes dat be me -g-
Look at the handle on some of these bad boys - 10 year chart
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tei&time=&freq=
An experienced floor trader who follow commitments of traders told me that in major commodity turns the commercials eventually have to be overpowered by the specs.
I think in gold the commercials are definitely heavy short to cap gold at 370 which must be some threshold above which derivatives positions start to blow up. The big swings in gold this week after ECB rate cut and then on Friday seem more like a last ditch effort to cover as much as possible by shaking the $6-7 swings.
Aug gold has tested 361 area several times last week and held so I think its strong support. Also the gold stocks are looking great considering the action in gold and the stock market. Several of the gold stocks are breaking to multi year highs like NEM and FCX.
Also silver looks like it is ready to turn and I believe in major bull markets in metals silver leads gold, not the other way around.
Hard to think of a better time for hard assets. I wouldnt want to be short.
Would like to get this going again fyi.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19011786
M.
Super Duper stick with gold down 5 bucks yesterday
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?r=&type=future%2Cindex&symbols=SIN03&perio...
Cat trying to get out of bag......
Interesting chart with a technical indication of $60 crude to come
http://stockcharts.com/snapshots/12455574.png
Creative Government accounting.....
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030602/bs_nm/economy_jobs_overhaul_dc_1
or how to ease the pain of reality.
<Now I'm wondering how many more derivitives are out there that are written in a manner similar to those
covering the Yandel hedgebook?>
Enron traded in metals and I beleive JPM was counter party. I think some of the gold/silver contracts are what hit the shredder first after Enron got notified by the SEC :)
This is going to get real interesting. Gold is trading like someone doesnt really want to be short, just want to make it look weak so they can cover.
D
Oops- have to turn that FCX chart into a 10 year chart to see the breakout.
Triple top breakout
on a gold stock no less
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=fcx&sid=&o_symb=fcx&freq....
looks headed to fill the gap at 27 imo
I get the feeling that " Elvis" is leaving the building. These guys are using the inside knowledge of the Fed action and Greenspans free money gig to make it back and then leave. Insiders are selling at record levels.
We wont have to worry about the crooked execs, Greenspan, the worthless SEC; they are all going to leave soon anyway and retire comfortably after converting to gold and Euros.
Leaving future generations with the bag.
A few gold stocks getting bought in spite of the drop in gold price
check out the OBV
NEM
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?i3=0&i2=6&i1=7&i0=1&period=120&...
MDG
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=null&period=120&chart1=ma&time=...
GG
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=null&period=120&chart1=ma&time=...
OT
Sorry the link doesnt work. Its a monthly chart for HUI going back a few years and shows a large cup and handle formation.
Don't worry, SARS is not allowed to enter the U.S.
Neither is mad cow disease.
Our government has figured out how to solve the problem, supress all the evidence.
Gold going higher.
Dont get confused by COT imo. Look at the charts, weekly HUI looks excellent. Weekly MACD on XAU and HUI look bottomed and turning up.
The US government doubled the deficit spending limits for a reason, because we are going broke.
Gold's true value is yet to be realized.
I dont think Globex is open yet. That site gives weird data over the weekend.
Globex opens at 6:30 EST
When bonds reverse then gold will go for another leg up imo.
Interesting long term Crude chart fwiw
http://stockcharts.com/snapshots/12455574.png
I thought the original discussion started off with a comment by another poster that the stock market probably wouldnt take a big plunge because commercials were net long SP500 contracts.
I dont think that is a good assumption for the reasons I stated. However if you are trading the SP500 futures only then you are probably right to follow the commercial position in that contract. Hell its working for you I wouldnt change anything.
I doubt the big players do much of anything without hedging a great deal at the present time, so its probably hard to infer much imo.
peace
D