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What dilution?
Frankly, I'm optimistic about what we'll hear at the shareholders meeting and the information to follow.
I would assume nothing at this point.
Number of producing wells prior to 10.4.10
How many wells were operating prior to the drilling program announced last October? Any sense of where they are in implementing the 60 well drilling program to date?
-Thanks.
$4.65 Premarket/5000 shares sold
One thing is for sure.
The shareholders meeting will not be dull.
I continue to think the information about collaboration between Guinea and Angola is highly significant. It shows things are moving rapidly on the ground. In my mind, that's an indirect but visible indicator that all parties expect the drilling program to deliver.
I'm confident HDY can initiate a program based on present resources alone. But I would not be surprised if the eventual structure of the JV deal or financing allowed for a more aggressive drilling program than has previously been articulated.
The fundamental quality of the investment opportunity here is what's important to me. I don't care what the share price does on a daily or weekly cycle. I think recent development both on the demand side and specifically related to the progress made by HDY to date are highly positive and that even optimistic interpretations can be exceeded at this point in the near and long-term.
Says Who?
The idea that it was Noble Energy seems completely without confirmation by multiple independent sources, which is what's needed to give the report a high level of credibility. It's not much better than a theory at this point, in my opinion.
But having said that, Noble's website has a PR for the Leviathan natural gas discovery in offshore Israel as 12/29/10. So, if they were talking to HDY in December/January, then this is also the timeframe of the Leviathan find.
While it's complete unknown if any of this is true, it would suggest that one explanation is Noble exited because of changing conditions on their side of things.
Down then up?
Any thoughts about where we will end the day?
That would certainly be amazing if it happened...
Expected more of a dip
Think the low was the high $11-s. I thought we would have seen more of a decline to date.
Very interesting stuff…
Thank you for the post. I’m limited in my understanding, because I don’t speak French. So, your condensed summary is also very helpful.
My first reaction to this information is that there is a heck of a lot bundled up to interpret. Here’s my opinion:
To start, I do not think these developments relating to creation of a new state oil apparatus are solely about areas relinquished by HDY during renegotiation of the PSC in 2010.
It’s important to note that the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) is precisely that - an agreement splitting future oil resources between the HDY Joint Venture and The Republic of Guinea. Based on my understanding, under the PSC, the Guinean State will receive a percentage of total barrels, that while it varies based on quantity of production, is generally around half of total output plus or minus. I view what's being talked about as the beginning of process on Guinea's part to evolve the necessary internal administrative capacity to manage the host of issues that would inevitably result if the country transitions to becoming an oil exporter. More to the point, I think the reasonable outside observer could also guess they probably expect to be looking at these issues sooner and not later. Hence, they desire to act now.
The US Energy Information Administration states Angola has around 9.5 billion barrels, while the Angolan government officials say total reserves are around 13.1 billion barrels. Moreover, Angola is a member of OPEC and runs about middle of the pack as far as total production in barrels per day. Are there reasons Angola appears to be “mentoring” Guinea as far as the development of a state oil company is concerned? I’d say do your own research to reach conclusions on that. But overall, on the basis of the information discussed on this board, I’m thinking events are moving very quickly in Guinea. I also think this is good for HDY, because the oil drilling program is on track and moving equally swiftly.
Again, this is just my attempt interpret and to make sense of recent developments. I’m not saying I’ve reached the correct conclusions, and I certainly welcome other points of view.
Cheers,
Joint Venture Situation/Question
For what it's worth, I tend to think no news until a finalized deal with a third partner is announced. In my opinion, I also think it will be a 6AM press release on a random trading day and not at the shareholders meeting as some have speculated. That's just my humble attempt to make sense of things based on experience. However, your guess is as good as mine.
Also, does anyone have a sense of when the revised resource estimate may be available? I assume post haste, and there may be no answer beyond that. But I had heard someone mention "April" on another board.
Cheers,
$5.34 after hours 2/4/11
Volume a little stronger than usual and trading well after market close.
Congrats.
Nice move in numbers and percent today.
If I had jumped in today, I would definitely be right now pouring something golden brown over ice to celebrate.
Let's hope there is something to toast tomorrow as well.
A Polar Opposite Week
I don't trust aphorisms, but it's starting to look like the observation any publicity is good publicity is on the mark in this case.
I think the steep drop last week might have put HDY back on the radar for many wishing to enter. Add that to the fundamental merits of the opportunity, and I think we're going to see better days and soon.
Even at its recent all-time highs, I believe we are looking at huge potential going at an insane discount as the 3-D data should likely demonstrate in the near future.
Next PR?
I wonder...Is there a strategy behind the pattern of 6 AM news release?
Because I would like to see the next good news PR released after market close one of these days.
(Of course, sooner is better.)
Off to the races!
Good analysis.
They aren't making new "Petroleum Provinces."
So, consumer spending is up 0.7% in December 2010 with the corallary of a lower savings rate. That says to me it's slow return to business as usual -- a lot of people driving and spending money.
All that oil has to come from somewhere.
Go HDY
Some thoughts...
By now, I think it's self-evidently obvious that oil resources not based in certain un-named parts of the world grew in value over the weekend. I don't want to belabour the point except to say clearly it cuts in favor of HDY.
I completely agree with the notion that the 3D data quality as well as the revised resource estimate will help produce a price equilibrium that offsets the recent decline. Will new news be good? I think so. Again, I hope we will be over $4 quickly. I seem to remember Ray stating something to the effect of handpicking a team that had worked for him in the past? I have confidence in management.
I'm not calling bottom, but I seriously question a pessimistic assessment at this point as anything more than just following the herd. Nothing at a fundamental level has changed. In fact, I'm starting to believe a corner might have been turned.
Here's wishing for a better week.
Who else is following this?
Oil drilling in Egypt? Anyone?
Fundamentals are solid.
I think we might test lower but will be back to about the upper end of the fall before long. Actually, I think it's held value decently under much stress this week. Worst is over in my opinion.
New information is what's required at this point to fix short-run perceptions. No need to rush to judgment before then.
Now unarguable the big picture favors HDY.
The market is getting it wrong.
Markets aren't perfect.
It's been said elsewhere before, but I do not think the present situation is overly complicated. The PR yesterday clearly stated what will happen next and provided a general timeframe.
I take the lack of follow-up as a sign the merits of the 3-D alone are sufficient to make the affirmative case for HDY on much stronger grounds. Again, the PR said this will happen soon.
Furthermore, It's possible to conclude that with 3-D analysis in hand and an updated resource estimate HDY will be able to set the terms going forward.
Time will tell.
Same old line from you know who?
Thanks for posting that article . I saw it mid-afternoon but have not seen it commented on before.
To me, it has seemed they always deliver too little by way of compelling analysis and then rush to conclude that the glass is half full. My opinion is that good analysis presents more than one point of view.
Or ask yourself this. Does it seem like they're selling something?
Not relevant to my thinking.
Trading but...
Don't forget now is the start of peak oil.
We will benefit.
Pausing for a moment
This the time where due diligence makes all the difference. Management has repeatedly demonstrated that they have formulated multiple strategies to increase shareholder value. Remember the decision tree diagrams representing options for concession development? There is more than one way to go, and it should be obvious we have some of the best leadership possible.
In fact, as has been frequently stated, maintaining a 77% ownership interest helps support maximum appreciation of the share price over the long-range. It wasn't too long ago that there was active discussion about whether this was the most desirable approach.
Plus, this was only a non-binding letter of intent to maintain exclusive discussion. I don't read anything in today's PR to say we can't work with that potential partner in the future and on our terms.
The above is all my opinion, but I submit it's worth thinking about how the case for value remains very strong.
Up somewhat after hours...
$2.68 with 8400 shares traded by 7:30 PM EST 1/20/11.
The yahoo board is discussing a new research report from Zachs reiterating their positive conclusions. Any thoughts?
Interesting follow-up, thanks.
Personally, I did not see how A connected to B with that story.
I've noted that publication seems to make a habit of originating some very sensational tales without readily making available full content or sources.
Three cheers for the long haul!
Looking for an entry point on CEF...
Is anyone else thinking the same way?
Any new thoughts for 2011?
Is anyone interested in this stock?
I am. Who else is out there?
I second that.
HDY PPS End of Year
I'm impressed by the performance as of end of this week.
Fast forwarding, does anyone have a guess on a likely price range if the good news and market holds to the end of 2010?
Cheers,
LP
RR Slides and Presentation 9/14/10
Putting daily considerations aside, I thought most recent slide presentation was again top notch.
In my opinion, everything in the big picture is coming together. It was great to hear rig providers were calling HDY to inquire about exactly what the company needs, reiteration that mining interests in Guinea will pay market rates for any natural gas discovery, that the drilling program will be comprised of 3 wells, and that other firms are emphasizing west African activity. Did I hear right that there is one strong prospect in comparatively shallow water -- about 70 m -- I think?
I take everything to indicate we have a premium asset in a strong, emerging profit hub. To my mind, these presentations go a long way towards building real value.
Any other thoughts on the most recent information?
Good news indeed
Nothing like +9.09% on a Monday to shake the dust off.
A more optimistic tack...
I agree, but I think things will improve ahead of 3-D results.
(I'm no more or less frustrated with HDY PPS than I am with any other part of the economy right now.)
MAKING THE RIGHT CONNECTIONS
Leaving my protracted reasoning out for the moment, is anyone aware of a BP/KNOC or XOM/KNOC connection? What, if any, history does Chariot (CHAR) have partnering with supermajors?
I've found nothing aside from they operate in sometimes overlapping parts of the world. But I do think there are a lot of new and interesting angles to the larger shakeout that might be possible.
I'm suspecting we're now approaching rapid changes well before the 3-D analysis is complete. After this week, HDY seems better placed than ever before.
Cheers all,
Agreed. Barriers to upward movement are gone.
I 100% agree. I think the buyout is highly probable.
Perhaps competing buyers and the situation in the Gulf of Mexico raise the ante?
Seeing HDY go to $10 was all some of us were hoping for anyway. So, anything close to double digits is compelling.
Realistically, what can management do to prevent it at this point?
A finish telling us something?
Especially interesting against the down market and falling oil. Stay tuned.
What About Best Case Scenarios?
If things do go favorably, then realistically how far can we push on upside in the short term, given the high range of the week at $1.10 to $1.06?
I'm asking the techs out there, or anyone with a historical point of view.
Last week was crazy to say the least! Very soon, I think we're gonna see it as a passing low point outlier. The smart money is with plays like HDY, once there is acknowledgment just how much the cost of domestic US hydrocarbon production has been forever changed.
IMO oil and gold are the place to be.
NO NEWS = GOOD NEWS?
Management's unwillingness to spin is good in my opinion. It shows a commitment to big picture strategy.
Plus, barriers to US domestic production, which can reasonably be imagined from where I sit, should push HDY higher. HDY wins in many different ways on that score.
One scenario explaining the lack of information is simply that whatever is in the works will be big and can't be talked about until done. Until we have new facts, there is nothing on the ground motivating this sell-off. Anyone who doubts HDY will be pivotal in creating a huge profit center in Guinea, only needs to regroup with the IPAA presentation.
On any given day, the market is going to do what it's going to do. But I say the floor meets greed real soon.
(Evidence: 9:52 AM, 5/4/10, $1.07)
The one good question not being asked
It's a shame what's happening in the Gulf, but am I alone in seeing the many ways recent events favor of HDY? Seriously, why are we not talking about it?
I'm just saying...you fill in the blanks.