when it doubles, sell half.

I like it that you think like that. But if you're right on that count of the value of the CVRs. Wouldn't that be the FMV of the CVR at the end of 12/31/2010?

Even if it weren't....let's go further and say that the value of the CVR was $1.00 that would put the cumulative value of all the CVRs at 160 million.... that would be 56 million more than than the 114 million it would take to make up the shortfall. 2.5 times 56 million = 140 million divided by 160 million shares...that would make the payout .875 per share. They would have to go alot further to make the $6.00 per share payout.

The thing is that they would have to exceed the 267.153 by only 5 million in order to break even at 8 cents.

I hope I'm wrong, and I was thinking I'd go ahead and place a bet anyway. I've always been a gambling man. Maybe it'll double before the deadline and I can finish with free shares.

I wasn't "Trying" to do anything. except answer a question for myself. I ran across this thing in my stock screener, and I decided to investigate further to decide whether or not I should buy it. I found my answers, and I just thought I would be a nice guy, and share the information I found. Make of it whatever you like.

My bad...I read this wrong.

For the Nine Month
Period Beginning
January 1, 2010 and
Ending September 30, 2010
For the Cumulative
Period Beginning
January 1, 2008 and
Ending September 30, 2010
EBITDA CALCULATION:
Net income (loss) $ 83,213 $ (250,074)
Interest expense (net of interest income) 212,315 707,206
Income taxes 31,984 28,458
Depreciation 15,033 52,253
Amortization 30,488 512,416
Fixed asset impairment 2,938 8,310
EBITDA $ 375,971 $ 1,058,569
Reconciliation to Adjusted EBITDA:
Stock compensation 443 6,572
Merger and separation related costs 1,015 49,770
Puerto Rico costs * — 32,802
Technology transfer costs * — 2,098
Change in the value of contingent value rights (43,262) (152,640)
Other taxes 520 1,905
Gain on sale of fixed assets (604) (262)
Consulting fees — 600
Foreign currency (gain)/loss 69 (2,405)
Puerto Rico closure costs 751 1,157
Other charges 4,155 1,681
Adjusted EBITDA – per CVR $ 339,058 (<---end of 3rd Quarter)

$ 999,847 (<---cumulative Since Jan 01, 2008 to end of 3rd Quarter 2010)

That means that they would have to do the whole 267,153,000 in the 4th quarter.

just type "adjusted ebitda" into the search on your adobe reader, then press enter to get to the figures.They will need 114,095,000 in adjusted ebitda just for the 4th quarter to make the mark. That's just a little more than the first half of the year.

Since they did do 72,407,000 in the first quarter, I suppose it's possible that they could do 114,095,000 in the fourth quarter.

But if you plot the chart....it looks like they will end 2010 with about 193 mil, when it takes 267,153,000 to trigger the threshold.

Wouldn't that be a drag? missing the 1.267 billion mark by 74 million?



Do your own DD...throw your own dice...don't listen to me.

I was looking at the quarterly reports, and trying to plot the advance of the adjusted ebitda for the end of the year. each quarter the ebitda advanced by approximately 40 mil. over the previous quarter.

1st quarter was 72 mil.
2nd quarter was 113.6 mil.
3rd quarter 153 mil.

this is a cumulative total. The necessary amount for the 4th quarter

would need to be the 267.153 mil, and it looks to me like they will have a shortfall of about 70 million. Not only that, but the market value of the CVR comes in on the balance sheet as a liability, so the higher the value on the open market, the smaller the profit on the balance sheet.

My honest opinion is....it's not going to happen. I'm out, Good luck to all.


do your own DD...throw your own dice and don't listen to me.

Any thoughts on length of time to approval for IPCI?

I was trying to find out average times for ANDAs but the data I found was 17 months? That doesn't seem right to me. How long ago did CLDA submit theirs for Viibryd?

I'm kicking myself for that one. I was in at 15 and sold prematurely at 23.50...should've held on a little longer.

There is an acquisition in the wings. That's part of the reason they had to do the debt to equity conversion...was to free up their balance sheet so they could borrow so they can buy. Their orders are already beyond their manufacturing capacity. I am certain that they are trying to fix that. Me?....I am not afraid. If it goes lower, I buy more.

IMHO...throw your own dice.

Matt, can you do an annotated chart on UVFT for me please? Thanks.

I'm sure there are plenty of people out there that have health concerns about their indoor air quality to purchase such a filtration device. If you don't want to own it, then don't.
Asthmatics would be good candidates. Ex-smokers, folks with open wounds.

Looks like UVFT may be setting up for the pinch

http://biomedreports.com/2010102959168/major-news-developments-may-push-micro-cap-stock-that-licensed-engineered-skin-substitute.html

I hope it gets there, But I think we'll be lucky to get half way there from here.

I'm gonna try this again....



Hey!, It worked!

insert-text-here




Hmmmm...not working for me either.

And how long have you been trading, Almighty Guru?

Would you say the same of Bogner and Marcial?

I agree. Today is day # 10 above the 200 ma. This is gonna start coming up on a lot of people's scanners. Day traders, momentum players and chartists will be joining the party soon.

Okay....you only suggested that they should sell. You sound just like somebody else I've heard on here before...is that you Tim?

So why are you in such a foul mood, telling people to sell?

I take it you're out with a loss, right?
What if validation results are positive and come out after the close?

You and I have no control over HFTs Wait for the rest of the story to unfold. I think you are a little premature with your gloating.

I'll think for myself, Thank you. RPC will take off!

Any thoughts on when the MAYO Clinic results might be released?

How can you put in a stop on a stock like this? My broker won't let me.

I don't think that the company is dumping. I think that what we are seeing right now is a changing of the shareholders. Impatient investors getting out, and others who are seeing opportunity and diving in. However, call it however you see it.

Disclaimer....don't listen to me...one way or the other. do your own research and make your own decisions. I am not liable for your actions.

Any way you look at it, you're throwing the dice and hoping they don't come up craps. Good luck.

stalemate bears vs. Bulls Finally trading sideways. There's hope for this one yet. CLEAR! I think we have a heartbeat. There's been a lot of interest and eyes on this, but nobody likes to buy during a downtrend. There was some dilution a few weeks ago, and it upset some of the present shareholders. I don't think that it's very likely that they will dilute to oblivion. That's just my take on it.
This "After the close stuff" is Market Makers covering eachother. They sell to you when you buy, even though they have no shares. RegSho will show shares shorted, then they can cover by buying wholesale from another market maker.


Disclaimer....don't listen to me...one way or the other. do your own research and make your own decisions. I am not liable for your actions.

Any way you look at it, you're throwing the dice and hoping they don't come up craps. Good luck.

Shhhhhh! Quiet Please.

can anybody tell me which brokerage firm lets you place stop loss orders on pennies/pinks

The price will rise when people aren't interested in selling anymore. =)

it's part of a trend. some traders think that the good news has already been priced into the stock price, and no longer see a point to holding. I, on the other hand, somehow believe in "continuation runs" and will be holding for awhile.

I ain't buying it.

http://www.univec.com

I happened to be at a WalMart last night, and I decided to take a look in the games section just to see if it was there...



Englewood, CO...BTW

Give credit where credit is due. That info is from biomed reports' M.E. Garza

you think it goes north past today's HOD tomorrow?

Now there's some level headed thinking. When the PR comes, flippers are left in the dust.

I think Qasp has nearly hit bottom. RSI 5 is below 30 again. Could bounce at any time. You agree?

Tim...IVVI....!

Tim, show me the e-mail. Give us a real link to follow. I don't believe you when you say that KBLB is a scam. If it's all about chart for you, what about when bear stearns went straight up? They're a scam too, right? Las vegas sands?

Show me the proof and stop trying to get me to subscribe to your alerts for 100.00 a month.

he does that all the time. It makes me wonder wether or not he's reall trying to protect us when he is gone for the day already. Makes a few posts, and then up and leaves? just give it some time, and he'll be the same as the other pumpers. He'll have a few thousand followers, and when he recommends a stock, it'll pop. Then he will be the pumper even though he wasn't paid by the company, he will have benefited from the alert.