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Back at ya Timmy Boy..
freekin accountants..always giving a dose of reality..
With all due respect to my brother's and sisters on monks den.
This play has a much bigger upside. I love your plays and will continue to contribute to the cause, but this puppy, is off the charts.
That would be WMO. Took the trip to Chile and met with Juan.
On his own dime I might add.
By the way it's not funny..
Its a learning experience...LOL!!!
I'm not blaming you for anything outside of being dramatic to excess. There are some that listen and some that don't. Just realize your word has meaning. DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY..
Fool me once..SHAME ON YOU..Fool me twice..SHAME ON ME..I think you could have taught us a new History lesson is a less dramatic way, but that's only me. I'm long and believe in the mountain. I've done my DD and I am satisfied this will eventally get done and I'm willing to wait. Some of my group felt otherwise as you can see by todays activities. One thing for sure. I will no longer linger on rumors from either thread. Grain of salt everyone, grain of salt.
Thank you for the update Vince. Much appreciated..
So, if the opening of mdmn is .25 why would cdch not reflect a simular uptick? They are joined at the hip.."Myopic" is the only word I can use to describe it.
CDCH ask is.065 so the MDMN ask of .25 is bogus.
I wonder if that would make Bill less grumpy?lol..Do ya think?
From Doc on Mining Play..Interesting and Brilliant..
regards to the question asked about share repurchases versus cash dividend distributions when heavily naked short sold corporations gain access to cash:
1) Review Book #8 Chapter 17 and the 42 benefits of share repurchase plans for heavily naked short sold corporations. These programs truly are the 8th wonder of the world for corporations able to survive 12-year attacks like a Medinah or a Cerro Dorado.
2) Calculate the “book value per share” (BVPS) for Medinah and Cerro should a JV get landed. You need the details of any JV agreement to start the calculation. Hopefully the majors will have pro forma cash flow projections from which you could do a discounted cash flow analysis which would be very crude at first. Next you have to do a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of the 5% interest at Pumillahue. I’d use an ultra-conservative 10% “discount factor”. The 43-101 reserves are either in hand or due soon. Either 30 or 40 holes have been completed to date and the reserves resources should soon be available. The specs on the Knelson concentrator and production plant are available as are the anticipated average grades. Then you have to ascribe a value to the 15% ownership of the 6,000 hectare Polo project. The NI 43-101 calculations there are either in hand or due soon. Next would be a similar analysis of the Las Dos Marias “LDM” project if it is going to exist as a “stand alone” project.
3) The rule of thumb is to buy back shares aggressively as long as you’re trading below BVPS. If the stock goes berserk right from the get- go then your share repurchase program will not be necessary or prudent. If your share price gets well out ahead of your BVPS in the 150% to 200% range then you may even sell restricted shares to fund another round of dividends. If the share price doesn’t go berserk then you go for it full speed ahead following the 6 rules needed to follow in order to gain a “safe harbor” during the process. The share repurchase program is an OPTION to exercise if the naked short sellers attack en masse. It is a wonderful option with numerous benefits but whether it gets deployed in full force or not is up to the naked short sellers. Quite frankly, we don’t care what they choose to do.
4) A generous cash dividend or “combo-dividend” or series of either depends upon the price per share, the size and timing of any tranches of cash and cash flow. Once again it too is an OPTION and depends upon what the naked short sellers do. If they attack en masse then any cash dividend of “X” amount of money done in a depressed share price environment will be extremely generous from a “per share” percentage basis.
5) A generous cash dividend AFTER an aggressive share repurchase will make the “per share percentage” go up also. Concentrate on the “per share percentage” basis of any cash dividend. In the 30-day period prior to the “dividend record date” a large “percentage cash dividend” will bring in tons of opportunistic buying especially if it can be pulled off before the tax preferential treatment of dividends sunsets at the end of 2010.
6) OPTIONS are a very good thing even if they don’t need to be exercised. The wild card is what are the shorts going to do? It’s very comforting for management to get itself out of the “please don’t attack us any more” frame of mind and into a “who cares” frame of mind.
7) One thing I’ve been aggressively lobbying for is having management bring the future of Medinah into the present. Rewarding today’s shareholders many of which have gone through a dozen years of misery is critical. In the mining arena you can pre-sell production at a discount, sell a percentage point or two for cash, exploit any “high-grading” opportunities, etc. None of these shareholders are getting any younger. Anybody sitting on an astronomically high naked short position is not going to be in a mood to match enormous amounts of generous dividends. They might be forced to cover in the 30-day timeframe before any dividend “record date” within which other opportunists will be buying like crazy and any shareholder would be crazy to sell lest he miss out on a generous dividend. As for the naked short sellers the option becomes to cover in a market that is already gapping upwards or naked short sell yet more fake shares into all of that buying and then be on the hook for that many more generous cash dividends.
I always get asked what I would do if I was naked short a bunch of shares of a “Medinah” and I saw a press release involving the distribution of a generous dividend. If I was a small player that had accumulated perhaps a 30 million share naked short position over the years I think I would quickly cover and then go net long before the dividend record date. I could leverage my ability to be more nimble than a huge MM that might be short 200 million shares and make some money off of my co-conspirator’s back i.e. "no honor amongst thieves". There’s this phenomenon called “recruitment” wherein larger naked short sellers run up a huge naked short position but they can’t kill the corporation. They then “recruit” others to join the festivities and “pile on” with a bunch of their own naked short selling to hopefully finish off the company. You have to appreciate how incredibly easy and incredibly lucrative naked short selling really is even after Reg SHO. After 12 years of not being able to kill one of the “Medinahs” of the world then there are bound to be a long line of “recruits” that have small to moderate naked short positions that are not very happy with their “recruiter” that told them that this corporation was just about "toast" and only needed a litte nudge to fall off of the cliff.
(Disclaimer: Do not buy or sell securities based upon these observations)
Okay..Lets close our eyes, click our heels and say this jva finally gets done..After they pay off their bills and put away some rainy day money, based on the skuttle butt of the cash payment, they should have plenty of dough left over. Any comments on how they should spend it? Pay a dividend? Buy back shares? Invest in other mining companies, buy the Lakers? Any ideas?
Serious and funny comments are welcome. I need a few laughs..But, I'm more interested in the serious because you all might have to really, some day, make that choice..
From George on Mining Play. He's only allowed one a day here.
Go figure.. Great DD George..
geoly37
Hero Member
Posts: 845
COME ON ALREADY!!!
Re: Medinah Minerals and Cerro Dorado - The Main Discussion
« Reply #10446 on: Today at 07:16:34 PM »
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FROM LES
Quote
George the balls are rolling so fast its hard to catch up and produce something that wont change before its printed. I br ought this up again today with the boys and I do believe they understand the importance and will act.
----- Original Message -----
The longs with large positions are not going anywhere. Very happy to wait for the fast approaching "perfect storm".
This has nothing to do with Les Price.Geez. Go to the web site, read the reports, draw your own conclusions and go from there.
Do some DD..It'll pay off..
What Medinah needs is cash. They'll have plenty of that very soon.
Excellent post Rich.How they announce and who they partner with will determine sp out of the blocks. After they announce, who knows where the short squeeze will take us. I think the ss will have a bigger effect on Medinah than Cerro. I personally think shareholders will be bought out prior to an ounce of mining.
If the longs hold onto their shares and don't panic sell we could be in for quite the ride. For a good example of a short squeeze,
go to a flagged post on the cdiv board. "Annotated Chart of a Short Squeeze". Interesting stuff.
I never said anything about an update. Just posting Doc's chapter 9 info. Are you okay? Too many cocktails?..lol
MM's in for a big time KABOOM..Glad Doc is on our side..
This post by Doc on MP is worth the read..Based upon what transpired today.
brecciaboy
MP Poster-Full
Jr. Member
Posts: 66
Re: Medinah Minerals and Cerro Dorado - The Main Discussion
« Reply #9819 on: Today at 02:39:43 PM »
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I just finished a chapter in Book #9 that deals with what appears to be happening in Medinah's market today. I call them "pulse-like" attacks. As you might have read due to the lobbyists for the abusive short sellers we no longer have an "Uptick Rule" in the U.S. after 74 years of it operating quite well. This means that abusive short selling market makers can "semi-legally" knock out bid after underlying bid in a serial fashion. Their purpose is to induce selling and dissuade buying. It's also referred to as "shaking the tree" to get the "weak-stemmed" shareholders to panic sell. Unfortunately this is often the older investors unable to risk a total meltdown in their investment. The pattern of the selling gives away the intent as the sellers don't seem to care what they get for their sales. A buyer will be gladly willing to pay a certain price yet the sellers just keep whacking away at bids. Legitimate "long" sellers don't act like this. If somebody puts in a "market sell order" then it's tough to tell what's going on unless the erratic selling is accompanied by an acceleration of the efforts of Internet bashers. If you see that then it's definetely a "pulse-like" attack. The most courageous one I've witnesseed was on "Dendreon" a biotech with a briliant prostate cancer cure. There was an announement on the Internet stating that at 11:30 CST we're attacking "Dendreon". Sure enough the share price went down 70% within minutes.
Part of the psychology is to induce existing shareholders to sell once the share price gets back to a certain pre-attack level. Mentally investors will decide that the next time the share price gets back to "X" level I'm out of here; this was too scary. Fear and geed are the two main emotions associated with investing and fear is much stronger than greed. These attacks are typically accompanied by Internet bashers accelerating their efforts and often stating "I told you it was a scam; next time you'll listen". These attacks can be very effective and they're often executed out of desperation prior to corporate breakthroughs. Let's hope so. These attacks can be a huge blessing in disguise for corporations with access to cash. What I do is have management teams with cash put on a big old catcher's mitt and keep large "stink bids" in at 10-15% below market. On 1/1/2011 a new "alternate uptick rule" with a 10% "circuit breaker" will kick in. What this means is that after a company has lost 10% of its share price on any given day the "uptick rule" will kick in barring any short selling unless it is on an "uptick" or "zero plus tick". This stays in effect for the rest of that day plus the next trading day. From 1/1/2011 management wants to set their "stink bid" at 9.9% below yesterday's closing price. A corporation with access to a fair amount of cash cannot be destroyed. With access to cash the psychology actually changes from being afraid of attacks to welcoming them especially if you're trading at ridiculously cheap share price levels wherein a little bit of cash can allow management to buy back and cancel a lot of shares. Picture a company able to buy back 90% of its shares with only 10% of its assets.
The delivery failures associated with these attacks are mandated to be covered by a "purchase" or a "borrow" by the opening of trading on T+6 if the selling was done by a bona fide MM otherwise it must be closed out b y the morning of T+4..
I bought this stock because I thought it had the potential to be "Life Changing". That potential is about to be realized.
We are in a very good place as of today. Share price for both are holding inspite of the absense of new new's. Hand is right on.
News must be received this week or history repeats. I'm confident Greg will not let this happen.
Shareholder Update March 18, 2010 " But, in summation, we were finally able, through multiple meetings with a Major group, to secure a “signed and acceptable offer sheet” outlining their entire proposal to Medinah Minerals, Inc. Their actions and performance in accordance with their offer will be detailed as we move through the overall staged process with the clear understanding that we are under Non- Disclosure mandates.
It's been three weeks. Is that enough time for them to get their ducks in a row? We'll find out this week. If not, they must update us as to the progress. If they do not post an update then history repeats. Like George said, "Checkmate" one way or another.
Until I see an official news release and/or higher volumne and share price I'll remain sitting down. The way rumors fly around these boards who really knows, besides the, BOD what stage the offers are.
Everyone needs to read and comprehend this post from Doc. Print it, take it to your happy place and try to gather the prophecy of it. Wow. I am in total awe. Thanks Doc, I'm very happy to be on your side. Mike..
To clarify. Buy back shares and retire the same shares. Sorry..
Thanks Round and good post. But the fact of the matter is, if Medinah buys back shares at a cheap price, pays a dividend, the MM's must cover the dividend or cover their shorts. End of story.
Nice to have you here.
Bill, I know you get grumpy when you have to repeat yourself.
So, here ya go DD.
Posted by: wmo767 Date: Tuesday, April 06, 2010 7:44:11 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 11907
Last week I said that I had been told that there were 2 offers in and a third to come. Check for the first offer in the bank.....some backtracked on that at the end of the week.
Now hearing that back tracking was not necessary. Two offers are in and they are accompanied by checks. I trust my sources on this. They are to connected to wrong. I would guess my original estimate of April 13-17 is still a good one. I would be suprised if it goes out beyond that.
How much would a million shares be worth at $8.00?
Just some food for thought while we wait around and abuse our livers. I have heard that a possible plan is to buy back shares post jva, pay a dividend and force the mm's to cover the dividend or cover their shorts. Now, I'm no expert, but common sense says if that's the case, they would not want to do anything that would drive the price up prior to a jva. So, If a jva is coming prior to eom an update would not be in their best interest. Just putting it out there for all of you to poke holes, stir the pot, have some debate.
Go to aol, stock quotes, advanced charts..goes back ten years plus..
And good for him. You are talking about a man with experience in these matters.lol..
after hours trade of cdch @ 0.055. Gonna be a fun day on Friday.
CDCH owns 2220 hectares. JJ owns a 20% interest in one of the cdch claims. I believe cdch has 8 claims total.
Let's stop the personal attacks. My finger is on the delete/ban button.
After hours trade @ 0.055..nice
I'M ON MY WAY..LOL.