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"most of it is "sitting" in the bank, which is expert at putting that money to work."
bank!?! heck, didn't someone just successfully sue his broker because he kept too much of a large portfolio in cash?
u find me one rich guy who has any, even modest, fraction of his/her net worth in cash, and i'll eat my hat. well, um, baseball cap.
seems to me that alot of it has been speculating in real estate, commodities, junk bonds and other bubbular activities. has to be them, cuz j6pack doesn't have access to such investments.
Report: Big Explosion Reported in North Korea
Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:26 PM ET
SEOUL (Reuters) - A huge explosion rocked an area in North Korea near the border with China three days ago and appeared to be much bigger than a train blast that killed 170 people in April, Yonhap news agency reported on Sunday.
"There were rumors that the explosion was much bigger than the one at Ryongchon train station and the United States is showing a big interest as the blast was seen from satellites," Yonhap quoted an unnamed source in Beijing as saying.
The cause had yet to be determined but the source said Washington was not ruling out the possibility that the blast may be linked to a nuclear test.
Yonhap reported that a mushroom cloud up to 2.5 miles in diameter was spotted after the blast in remote Yanggang province in the country's far northeast.
The New York Times reported in its Sunday editions that the Bush administration had received recent intelligence reports that some experts believe could indicate North Korea is preparing to conduct its first nuclear weapons test explosion.
South Korean government officials were not immediately available for comment.
Thursday was the 56th anniversary of North Korea's founding. The reclusive communist state often stages extravaganzas and big events to mark important anniversaries.
Train cars exploded at the Ryongchon railway station on April 22, killing 170 and wounding an estimated 1,300. The blast was believed to have been caused by a train loaded with oil and chemicals hitting a power line.
"the upcoming bush victory will effect the mkt positively"
counting chickens, yadda yadda. even applies when rove is involved ...
a nice day for distribution on the SOX, it seems.
ISSUE DECLINERS EXCH LAST PRICE MONEY FLOW RATIO
(in millions)
Interpublic (N) 10.95 -83.0 8/100
AstraZen (N) 44.15 -54.7 59/100
SemiConHldrs (A) 29.59 -53.4 77/100
AnheuserB (N) 51.01 -31.6 45/100
Nokia (N) 13.71 -30.5 75/100
Intel (Nq) 20.25 -30.3 81/100
SPDR (A) 112.87 -26.3 95/100
Rouse (N) 67.00 -24.1 54/100
iShrRu2000 (A) 113.37 -21.4 84/100
MaximIntgt (Nq) 41.03 -21.3 77/100
Brunswick (N) 40.85 -20.8 22/100
ProctGamb (N) 56.30 -20.8 70/100
FstData (N) 42.81 -18.8 50/100
CocaCola (N) 43.47 -18.5 78/100
KerznerIntl (N) 42.61 -18.1 10/100
RegBkHldrs (A) 134.60 -17.1 11/100
MedcoHlthSol (N) 31.24 -15.9 40/100
WalMart (N) 52.60 -13.8 86/100
Youbet.com (N/A) 2.85 -13.4 11/100
Diamond (A) 103.27 -13.0 86/100
"I think the market is suggesting and moving as if Mr. Bush will be re-elected."
hmm. u mean selling off and moving money to switzerland?
point taken.
"Prediction....Osama bin Laden will be taken soon which could cause a global market rally."
well hasn't that been the expectation of just about everyone since tora bora? hard to believe that they could be smuggling him a dialysis machine and can't get him a camcorder ...
although there is a risk, especially if it were announced too early, since there could be the perception of a lessened risk of terrorism, which is bush's strength.
odd. flashlights explode? why don't i find any references to this on google?
Iraq Pipeline Attack to `Greatly Reduce' Oil Exports (Update3)
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- An attack on an oil pipeline near the southern Iraqi city of Basra today will ``greatly reduce'' exports from the country's Persian Gulf oil terminals, said Jabbar al-Leaby, director-general of state-run South Oil Co.
``The attack on the pipeline, an act of sabotage, will greatly reduce exports,'' said al-Leaby in an interview from Basra, southern Iraq's regional capital. The full extent of the damage may not be known for days, he said.
Iraq exports 90 percent of its crude oil from the Persian Gulf ports of Basra and Khor al-Amaya. Repeated sabotage by opponents of the U.S.-led coalition and of the Iraqi government have interrupted exports, helping drive oil prices to a record.
Crude oil for October delivery rose 1.9 percent this week in New York to $43.99 a barrel, or 49 percent more than a year ago. The price slipped 7 cents a barrel yesterday as concern eased that shipments might be disrupted from Russia and Iraq.
Saboteurs today also set alight a secondary pipeline serving Kirkuk in the north, Agence France-Presse said, citing Northern Oil Co. security chief Ahmed Hassan Ghafif.
The sabotage follows Thursday's attack on a pipeline in northern Iraq, which halted shipments along the main export route from Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The pipeline had been pumping 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day, AFP said.
Achilles' Heel
``Clearly the insurgents, who are not one group of people, have identified the Iraqi oil facilities as the Achilles' Heel of the government, which they want to bring down,'' said Youssef Ibrahim, managing director of Dubai, United Arab Emirates-based Strategic Energy Investment Group.
The attack on the southern pipeline took place at about 8:30 a.m., AFP said, citing police colonel Nuri Jaafar Fayad. It damaged parallel pipes, one carrying oil to the Harithah electrical plant and another connecting the town of Nahr Omar to the Zubeir oil fields, AFP said.
Exports through Iraq's two southern terminals on the Persian Gulf weren't affected by the attack as of 9:00 a.m., said three local shipping agents who declined to be identified. Shipping agents handle tankers calling at the terminals.
Attacks Expected
Three vessels, the Namur, Crude Progress, and Guru Gobind Singh were loading at a combined rate of 90,000 barrels of oil an hour from the Basra and Khor al-Amaya terminals, more than yesterday's rate of 70,000 barrels of oil an hour, the agents said. Two other vessels, the Eco Africa and Hyundai Banner, were berthed at the terminals waiting to load, they said.
Iraqi exports through the southern oil terminals were at a rate equivalent to 1.9 million barrels a day on Thursday, close to maximum capacity, local shipping agents said.
Attacks on pipelines and oil sites will probably increase as more insurgents, some backed by Iraq's neighbors, try to bring down the government of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, said Strategic Energy's Ibrahim.
Iraq relies on oil sales to pay the salaries of more than 1 million government employees. The country lost $1 billion in income as a result of sabotage to its oil facilities during the year to June, Prime Minister Allawi said that month.
Declining oil exports from Iraq, the Middle East's fifth- largest oil producer in July and the world's third-largest holder of oil reserves, helped push oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange to a record $49.40 a barrel on Aug. 20.
Oil exports from Iraq fell in August to the lowest in 10 months after a pipeline in the south was shut for about two weeks. Shiite Muslim militia had threatened to attack it.
`Feelings of Hopelessness'
``These attacks, which have been taking place for a year and a half, can't be separated from the problems of occupation and feelings of hopelessness among Iraqis,'' said Saddalla al- Fathi, former president of Iraq's oil refining organization.
Al-Fathi, a former employee in the secretariat of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries between 1986 and 1994, was speaking in a telephone interview from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Shiite Muslim militants loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr set oil pipelines and oil fields on fire last month as part of a standoff with the U.S.-led coalition and Iraqi forces in the southern city of Najaf.
Insurgents also set alight warehouses and the headquarters of South Oil Co., which operates pipelines and terminals through the Persian Gulf.
Strategy Spreading
Militants in other Persian Gulf countries may mimic attacks on Iraq's oil installations to bring down other regimes that rely on oil for most of their income, said Ibrahim.
``The idea that you can challenge a government which depends on oil for its income is migrating to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia,'' Ibrahim said.
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is fighting suspected al-Qaeda militants, who in May stepped up attacks near oil-sites in a bid to undermine the economy and bring down the ruling al-Saud family.
The militants are suspected of killing close to 30 non- Saudis since the start of May, including a U.S. engineer who was beheaded in June, in a bid to scare away expatriates who help run the kingdom's industries. Crude oil accounts for 90 percent of Saudi exports.
The attacks prompted international companies such as Swiss engineering company ABB Ltd. to evacuate its foreign staff from Saudi. About 100,000 Westerners, mainly U.S. and U.K. citizens, live and work in the kingdom,
Cold Fusion Back from the Dead
kinda interesting ... this has been discussed here before ...
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/WEBONLY/resource/sep04/0904nfus.html
interesting observation. how the heck did the vxo and vxn drop today??
hrm. but tim russert (and later others) pointed out that bush didn't get the info before the speech today (because of preparations). of course, nobody has to believe that ....
hrm. can't you make your own beer in the bathtub?
well andrew sullivan's informal tally of bush's laundry list of domestic programs puts the cost in the trillions: "He pledged to provide record levels of education funding, colleges and healthcare centers in poor towns, more Pell grants, seven million more affordable homes, expensive new HSAs, and a phenomenally expensive bid to reform the social security system."
perhaps the japanese are just groaning at the thought of writing those loans ...
"Just a way to get more money out of John Q public into the hands of Wall street. What is wrong with investing these funds in safe long term treasuries?"
i don't understand the logic behind these alternative retirement accounts. why isn't the "right" thing to do -- given the stated reasons for doing it -- just to decrease the soc sec contribution by a similar amount and leave it at that? (similar to the amount that would be contributed to these individual accounts, that is.) after all, if an individual is not getting some defined benefits for his/her contribution, why should he/she want to be coerced into starting an IRA?
'twas not scripted. only the first couple remarks that were read.
i think tonight's domestic agenda at the rnc pretty much puts the nail in the coffin of fiscal conservatism in the u.s.
OT "Kerry sounded like ... Nothing new."
actually, no. what was new were the scripted remarks, "misled us into iraq". the gloves have come off. gonna get uuuugly.
weren't they all hinting about better-than-expected numbers last month also? (well, sometime this summer.) just like the last time intel management opened its collective mouth.
dang, i was gonna post that for mlsoft.
"Do you know that show called Monk? I think Detective Monk should review that 10/01 mishap."
no, but i'm sure, if he did, his research and findings would be stuffed away in a drawer in an undisclosed location. personally, i'm also suspicious of those two nightclub fires that happened within days of each other about 2 yrs ago, various gas/refinery explosions of late. of course, we'll never know.
i'm pretty sure this is why the al qaeda "signature" on terror events is multiple simultaneous attacks. russia showed that you just can't credibly dismiss those as accidents or human error.
"What if something significantly beyond a pepper spray prank were to happen ..."
as the resident paranoid i'll just add: you don't actually know that something more *didn't* happen. i'd contend that, first and foremost, whenever possible, the facts of the events are modified for public consumption, for the sake of national security. like what (may have) happened with the jet downing out of jfk in 10/01, or what the russians tried to pull with their simultaneous jet accidents last week.
oh come on, the only terrorist attacks there will be are those that can't be ascribed to accident, etc. for reasons of national security. (e.g. large scale simultaneous)
hrm. but was ag's goal really to stave off a recession? i don't think so, just a deflationary one, led by business. he's pretty much helped companies repair their books and build up some cash, so we're free to experience a deep consumer-led recession. i'd think that would be considered success ...
but then, of course, i'm completely naive on these topics too.
though the higher they jam the tick, the higher goes the trinq ... 2.2 now ...
"The bad INTC news priced in so post-mid q it rallies."
of course you could have said that about intc twice each quarter (earnings, update) for the last few months, and it very rarely played out that way. short ratio is something like 0.7 days, so not alot of fuel there for much of a rally.
IBM moneyflow has been pretty negative for days.
see, lee, u have to be careful:
Hackers Hijack US Govt Computers - USA Today
08/31/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Hundreds of computers at the Defense Department and U.S. Senate were hijacked by hackers who used them to send spam e-mail, federal authorities say, USA Today reports on its Web site Monday.
The use of government computers was uncovered during the Justice Department's recent cybercrime crackdown, USA Today said. It adds another wrinkle to the use of so-called zombie PCs, which number in the millions and have bedeviled consumers and universities the past year.
The takeover of government computers is part of a bounty of evidence of new online scams that could lead to more busts under the crackdown, says Dan Larkin, unit chief of the Internet Crime Complaint Center, according to USA Today. Authorities are in the process of repairing the government computers.
Won't my "broadband" cable service provider charge me MORE if I have a home network/lan?
or is their charging similar to the phone company, pay a monthly fee, and if you have one wired phone great, if you have ten wired phones equally great.
depends on how u want it set up, of course. if you want them all to have their own ip address (as seen from the outside world), then you have to pay for that. (like having several phone numbers.) but otherwise, you'd probably have your own private network inside, and your firewall/router would do the address translation so that they can all share the same external ip address.
"My offer is for a high priced office visit ...$400"
wow. what does that work out to hourly?? we need more medical outsourcing to put prices back in a reasonable range. open up those canadian hospitals.
[China] Credit squeeze risks triggering loans crisis
Elliot Wilson
The mainland's long-running banking crisis may get worse before it gets better - thanks to its own attempts to rein in an economic boom that threatened to get out of hand.
A wave of new non-performing loans (NPLs) could soon hit China's biggest banks as the government's credit squeeze triggers defaults by everyone from steel mill owners and car buyers to golf course developers and homeowners.
New lending this year by China's biggest banks outpaced even last year's record figures to the acute discomfort of policy-makers in Beijing.
The ``Big Four' state-owned lenders, which include Bank of China and China Construction Bank (CCB), made 670 billion yuan (HK$631.7 billion) in new loans in the first six months of this year, up 20 billion yuan from last year, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
Figures from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) show loan growth slowed slightly in June, but still rose 13.9 per cent year on year, following a record 23.2 per cent annualised increase in June last year.
Central bankers first began to worry publicly the economy was spinning out of control in March, when the PBOC announced total outstanding loans grew 2.2 per cent on a monthly basis and 20.1 per cent year on year.
Even with government attempts to rein in some of the most overheated parts of the economy, including real estate and steel, new lending by the big four this year could exceed last year's record 1.3 trillion yuan. And commercial loan growth that year was 18-20 per cent, one of the fastest rates of growth in the world, according to accountants Ernst & Young.
More troubling than even this pace of new lending is the areas where the money flowed - many analysts reckon it went to the so-called ``bubble sectors' - real estate, autos, and natural resources such as aluminium and steel - the very areas where loan defaults look most likely.
``Loan growth has basically doubled in three years, and in my view in any market with extraordinary growth in a short period of time there's usually a problem that follows,' said Jack Rodman, managing director of Ernst & Young Asia Pacific Financial Solutions and adviser to Huarong - one of the four asset management companies (AMCs) set up in 1999 to clean up China's banking system.
Some hint at the dimensions of the problem: Total aggregate lending by all Chinese banks reached 18.48 trillion yuan at the end of June, more than double the total outstanding loans at the end of 2001.
At the individual bank level the situation is just as worrisome. Outstanding loans at Merchants Bank, the most respected of China's five listed lenders, rose 30 per cent by the end of June from a year ago. Minsheng Bank, the country's first private lender, saw outstanding loans rise 24 per cent year-on-year at the end of last year.
Soaring first half profits at Pudong Bank and tiny Huaxia Bank were driven by new lending, both banks said, with only HSBC's new mainland partner, Bank of Communications (BoCom), announcing a drop in new first half loans.
``You could argue that a lot of the loan growth is good - well, I think a lot of it is real estate and there are clearly concerns of a real estate bubble,' Rodman said.
Even at BoCom, however, there must be concerns at future bad loans emerging - last year, according to its annual report, real estate benefited more from incremental loans than any other sector, receiving 11 per cent of all new lending.
``I'm sure there are a lot of bad loans being created right now,' said Yi Zhang, a partner at law firm O'Melveny & Myers in Hong Kong, and lead counsel for Morgan Stanley last year during the sale of 10.8 billion yuan worth of bad loans from Huarong. ``NPLs are going to be a long-term problem for China.'
Beijing policy-makers are acutely aware of the challenges facing the banking system and those who regulate it. But their efforts to cope with the problem have been faltering at best.
In the forefront are the AMCs - Cinda, Huarong, Orient and Great Wall. They were set up in 1999 to clear up all the bad debt created by the big four banks before 1995. The year they were established, Beijing identified 1.4 trillion yuan in bad loans - or roughly 17 per cent of the then GDP of China - at the big four lenders. They then transferred them to the AMCs at book value - ensuring that the banks did not incur further losses that would have severely drained their capital base.
By the end of last year, the four had disposed of US$62 billion (HK$483.6 billion) of the original tranche of assets, leaving US$107 billion on their books.
But with the AMCs absorbing all transactional expenses, the cost of the bonds issued to the big four banks when they acquired the sour assets as well as an NPL recovery rate of around 20 cents on the dollar, it has been a very costly process.
Assets with a face value of just US$2 billion had been sold to investors by the end of last year, with the rest disposed of in return for cash settlements, property, or pledges of assets or stocks.
The basic job of the four AMCs was similar to that of agencies such as the Resolution Trust Corporation, which the United States created to sort out a savings and loan debacle. They were expected to sift through the rubble, sorting out the good and selling off the bad assets - in the form of everything from half-completed shopping malls in Inner Mongolia to bankrupt office buildings in Shanghai - to domestic and foreign investors, allowing the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC to recoup some their losses.
The big sell-off has been mostly a non-event, though not so much for want of would-be buyers. The four AMCs have been tardy in valuing and auctioning off state assets, in large part due to the government's fear of selling them off on the cheap - especially to foreigners.
Domestic and foreign investors, mostly represented by the big international investment banks, are keen to snap up sour loans at below-market prices - but have become frustrated by repeated delays, rule changes and red tape.
Just US$500 million in bad loans have been sold so far to domestic and foreign investors - mostly by two separate asset sales by Huarong.
One of the toughest challenges may be that facing Cinda, the AMC partner of CCB, which in June paid 31 cents on the dollar for bad loans with a face value of 278.7 billion yuan from Bank of China and CCB.
The deal requires Cinda not only to make a profit on the loans - recouping at least 33 per cent of the value, assuming transaction costs add a couple of percentage points - but to sell all the loans within 18 months. Quite a task for even a crack asset-disposal team - and one many people believe is beyond Cinda's grasp.
``Cinda needs to recover US$10 billion to US$11 billion in bad loans when the entire market has only raised US$500 million,' said a mainland specialist on NPLs, who declined to be named.
``The Huarong transactions have been for around US$2 billion in face value, and have taken 90 days for due diligence and 90 days for investors to underwrite them.'
Even if Cinda hopes to to recoup half these loans, ``it would need to go to the market every 90 days with that size of transaction - a Herculean effort', he added. ``Cinda should look to the Korean Asset Management Corporation, deemed the most successful AMC in Asia, which moved billions of [US] dollars in NPLs in a short time through an aggressive marketing programme to domestic and international investors.'
Even after due diligence and underwriting are complete, however, there are further delays in closing the deal. It took 14 months for Huarong to receive regulatory approval to complete its first major asset disposal.
A second tranche, bid last December, was recently closed for domestic investors but not for investment banks Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, UBS, JP Morgan and Citigroup. Each still awaits regulatory approval to establish investment vehicles in China, in order to receive assets from Huarong.
The question now for Beijing is whether it can provide its AMCs with enough incentive to act quicker - and assurance that their valuation of assets will not be questioned by the party. AMC officials have constantly been second-guessed by government cadres either coveting a party promotion or bitter at the perceived underpricing of state assets.
Many believe the central government needs to appoint a powerful individual to oversee the NPL clean-up - as has happened in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, all places similarly saddled with bad loans. ``Ultimately there is no one at the top saying `do it, get it done, get it done quickly and don't concentrate on making a profit, just maximise the recovery value',' Rodman said.
``You need someone higher up than [China Banking Regulatory Commission chief] Liu Mingkang or [central bank governor] Zhou Xiaochuan to come and say `do it',' O'Melveny & Myers' Yi said. ``There are indications that the government is accelerating the NPL resolution process, though they don't have a lot of time.'
Time is fleeting, particularly with a full opening of China's banking sector to international competition on the horizon, and with the country still host to the largest batch of NPLs in the world after Japan.
After years of foot-dragging and political interference, Japan is finally moving to clear its books of bad loans, while China has barely begun. The frustration among would-be buyers is palpable.
``China should be competing with Japan to clear up its NPLs, but if it doesn't clear up its system, foreigners may start to say this is taking too long and may go elsewhere,' Yi said. ``[The authorities] don't realise this, but it's a definite possibility.'
"45 years of on the average $15,000 per year"
hrm. actually, i think that's high. even now the contribution is something like 6.2%, capped at under $87k, so the maximum contribution is slightly north of $5000/yr.
"I'm afraid I'm veering into politics ..."
well, you could make your observations non-partisan by noting that both sides of the political spectrum have been intent on raiding the treasury. huge tax cuts (probably unfairly balanced), and then, hey, lets load more on top of that, and make them permanent, and throw in a new entitlement while we're at it.
unfortunately it often seems that politics is more about politics than it is about responsibly running the government. i think we need a philosopher-king about now.
the US now has no choice in the matter, these programs will have to be cut back, and the cuts have to be massive. The senior population is not going to like the bitter medicine they are about to be forced-fed.
unfortunately i think you're gonna have virtually everyone 40+ on one side of this issue. i can't imagine that there will be massive cuts in social security and medicare before very regressive taxation and socialized medicine go back on the table. the constituencies are too large and well organized.
"nary a word about the huge Bush tax cuts"
oh, i thought that's what he meant by 'sudden and painful adjustments'. (i.e. their repeal) :-P
"a good old-fashioned war and tax breaks for the upper echelon"
ah, but the previous article tells us that by putting more money into the hands of the wealthy, we can be assured that there won't be a market meltdown when boomers start living off their IRAs.
wow, now that's a take-the-money-and-run attitude. i wonder where they found the buyers ...
Yahoo Pares Google Stake, Sells $191M
Friday August 27, 4:37 pm ET
Yahoo Inc. Pares Google Stake, Sells $191 Million in Search Engine Stock
NEW YORK (AP) -- Yahoo Inc. sold $191 million in Google Inc. stock this week, cashing out some of the 2.7 million shares Google gave Yahoo this month to settle two lawsuits.
Yahoo disposed of the 2.3 million shares on Tuesday at a price well below where Google's stock traded during the day, suggesting Yahoo unloaded the shares after the close of regular trading and did so without much regard to price.
Yahoo Friday reported selling the Class A shares at $82.62 apiece, even though Google traded between $103.57 to $111.60 on Tuesday. At that range, the Google shares were worth $240 million to $259 million.
Yahoo spokesman Ruben Osorio wasn't willing to immediately comment on the stock sale. Google spokesman David Krane declined to comment.
In exchange for giving Yahoo 2.7 million shares on August 9, Google got a perpetual license to Yahoo's patent on matching online advertisements to Web-search results. Yahoo, of Sunnyvale, Calif., also agreed to drop another lawsuit over warrants to purchase shares that Google granted it under a partnership signed in 2000.
Google shares began trading on August 19, following its initial public offering.
The stock of the Mountain View, Calif.-based Internet search engine finished at $106.15 Friday, down $1.76, or 1.6 percent, on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
Yahoo also converted 1.1 million Class B common shares into a like amount of Class A stock on Tuesday, leaving Yahoo with 1.48 million Class A shares. Yahoo holds Class B stock, which has greater voting power, because it was an early investor in Google.
Yahoo disclosed the information in a filing Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Initially, Yahoo incorrectly reported that Michael J. Callahan, its general counsel, sold 2.3 million Yahoo shares. It later corrected the filing.
Well, the HUI is green today even though gold ended down over $4; normally it would be down about 2 points.
well it looks to me like folks don't trust the end of month numbers on the commodity anymore, since there's always a big move up or down at the end of the month. (expiration on futures contracts?)
GDP MAY SPOIL PARTY FOR GOP
BY JOHN CRUDELE
August 26, 2004 -- ANYONE got a bunny? Because unless the administration can pull a rabbit out of its hat, the White House isn't going to like tomorrow's release from the Commerce Department.
As the last big economic report before the Republican National Convention, Friday's restatement of the second quarter's economic growth could be bad — or it could be even worse.
This is the second of three estimates of how fast the economy grew during April, May and June.
The experts are predicting that Washington will adjust the GDP down to just 2.7 percent annual growth for the second quarter. It had originally been reported at 3 percent, which had already disappointed Wall Street.
But some people are worried that a big jump in the U.S. trade deficit in June to $55.8 billion — from an already-staggering $46.9 billion in May — could mean that the GDP will be pushed down even more than expected.
It might even be below 2 percent.
The short explanation is this: every item purchased from overseas takes away from gross domestic product growth.
I should give some perspective.
Wherever second quarter growth comes in, it will be down from the 3.9 percent GDP growth in the first quarter, which in turn was down from 4.1 percent in the 2003 fourth quarter, which was well below the fluky 8.2 percent growth recorded in last year's third quarter.
The third quarter of 2003 was when tax cuts put spending money in people's pockets and stimulated economic growth more than — it turns out — could be sustained.
What does this all mean?
It means that the economy isn't likely to go away as a campaign issue.
The final GDP number for the second quarter will be released Sept. 29. The initial reading of the third quarter GDP will come out Oct. 29, just days before the election.
*
While the end of August is usually quiet anyway, the the coming of the convention is causing investment bankers — always smart but never too brave — to make adjustments to their already light summer schedule.
Fortunately, Wall Street doesn't have a whole lot of investment banking work to complete right now anyway.
The two-year old Sarbannes/Oxley law, which requires a greater amount of corporate disclosure, is still braking the deal wheel.
And last week's chaotic initial public offering of Google stock is making private companies think twice about asking the public for money.
Any company that needs to raise cash right now is more likely to sell off a business instead of going to the public markets.
This last phenomenon, alas, is causing enough deals to keep people with a lot of money busy.
* Please send e-mail to:
jcrudele@nypost
hrm, but a whole lot more put buying at 25 strike on nvls today than after hours activity at 25 ...
1.17 billion shares traded today on NASDAQ , i need check if this be the lowest non-half day volume this year.
seasonal, no? last year aug 25 was lower by 0.06