I am updating my staus.
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That was a good point. Foreign sales look like they will help TSTC then - assuming they make up a significant proportion.
In the end the most important thing is "will cash levels limit growth?". At the moment the answer is no but clearly if they are going to keep growing at a fast rate it could.
With the WFDS system in China they are talking about not selling but renting the device - my first thought is that isn't going to help cash flow unless I've misunderstood something.
In the end TSTC has 10M shares and they had 10M in 2008 (and perhaps earlier) so we can trust management to wring as much earnings out of the business as they can given the monopoly status of the companies they are serving.
rich
NEP: Anyone tried Chao Jiang? He was mentioned in the last 10-K and on their IR page and apparently might work in the states?
Chao Jiang
Executive Vice President of Finance
China North East Petroleum Holdings
1-212-307-3568
email: info@cnepetroleum.com
I don't actually have any questions, I just want an IR when I do have some. A bit of googling gives you chao.jiang@cnepetroleum.com
Given we know the structure of the email address (name1.name2@cnepetroleum.com) we can probably get anyone at NEP.
rich
[1] http://cneh.irpage.net/IR_Contact.html
ZIMA - have people been complaining to info@cnepetroleum.com?
rich
It's an odd stock. It's not the first time it's done well on a bad day.
rich
ZIMA - grief, that would be much funnier if I didn't own NEP shares
rich
Using V80alue's model [1] and adding on 2067 intercity buses (not airport) then in January the monthly revenue will be 20.0M up from 18.7M now - which is around about 7% increase. Not bad from one announcement.
I haven't double checked these numbers or anything....
rich
[1] https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1PAGtqlPFEMDllNWUzYjktZjZhZS00OTY1LWJhOGMtNThlOTBkNDcyNjgx&hl=en&authkey=CKju-OcD
Isn't half the problem that they can only bill when the project is completed? So, it can be on receivables for a year before even billing?
rich
CGPI - the ASP was above expectation. The number weren't outstanding - compared with proportions they sold during last year at least - By beating my ASP they hit my revenue expectations by doing fewer sales - I'm guessing a few sales were lost in effort to get higher return? Good if you can do it
This is peak season for CGPI but I'm guessing Nov / Dec / Jan should be the best months - they could make exceptional numbers? Regardless, they are on target to beat their 7000 estimate comfortably.
Our strong, recurring cash flows and fortress balance sheet provides us with sufficient capital to support our organic growth for many years to come.
Cash has so far been converted into inventory. Given their prodigious building requirements coming up I had hoped that the cash would be piling up on the balance sheet but this hasn't happened yet. I'm not so convinced by the "fortress" comment - if others are then I'm all ears as I'm confused about their requirements, the timing of requirements and if they would be prepared to delay parts of the project.
Good Month and it's excellent that they provide revenue transparency.
rich
OK, I've had a reply from IR - they wouldn't give the name of the hospital. I suggested that it was information that was of interest - they've passed this onto the company.
I've asked why they can't give the name? But I have no reply.
I haven't told them I own 800 shares but suspect this won't swing it
rich
Prepare for the RINO Fallout
By some shyster or other
http://seekingalpha.com/article/238006-prepare-for-the-rino-fallout?source=email_watchlist
rich
CSR did it - not the most financially sophisticated company.
rich
Well If I had 40%, and not 4%, I suspect I would go and visit the company.
What I've done is emailed TSTC's IR to see if they have any updates on the project and if they will tell us the name of the hospital.
The more information I can glean before contacting Quell the better I figure. I will ask Quell if they are OK to talk about it - I'm not going to barge my way in but if they want to talk I will take the opportunity.
rich
TXIC - do you have any take of the weekends events? Did you trust the CEO and CFO over the board?
rich
OT citron research's domain name up for renewal.... not sure if someone will renew...
http://citronresearch.com/
rich
tootalljones I am trying to reconcile the confidence of this board with the negativity of CGS.
The point wasn't meant to be derisive, your words, the point is that people can say "oh it's another Chinese technology firm fraud".
TSTC should be able to distinguish itself from these failures. The FCC is a good point - clearly any technology TSTC has had to be compatible with the rest of the network. We know then that TSTC's technology is a working and valid technology.
Another point is the length of time they have been in operation. This hasn't been a fly by night operation like BORN which IPO'd this year. Though RINO was listed for 3 years before the fraud was discovered by muddy waters [1].
RINO claimed that it had relationships with companies that it really didn't. A way would be to find Telestone mentioned by China telecom, China unicom and China mobile. I have been googling without success:
"china telecom" telestone
"china unicom" telestone
"china mobile" telestone
Finally, while we know that it's FCC compliant we don't know the quality of the product. Is there any none telestone documents that attest to how good their current and WFDS products are?
I have held a small position of TSTC currently 4% for over a year now. It's not in my interest to give them a hard time. I believe that TSTC is the real McCoy and that it will do well in the coming years - however as it stands I can't prove that to a skeptical board.
I think CCME, LPH & NEP are popular because they understand the company while far fewer, understand TSTC.
rich
[1] http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHTML1?ID=6262359&SessionID=2XWZHCxxrr5qg77
It does seem a bit overdone. We've seen a stock lie about their technology, RINO, and another look suspicious, BORN. Then there's this other technology firm that claims it's got a best of breed technology TSTC.
The trouble with these technology firms is that most investors, which I include myself, don't know enough about the technology of that sector. I don't know what other telco-engineering companies solutions to this problem are - I appreciate TSTC says no-one has another technology that is equivalent but I don't what the other Chinese companies are doing in that sector - I only have their word.
The point is not academic - If we knew more about sulphate extraction or alcohol production techniques no-one would have invested in RINO or BORN in the first place.
However, I agree with your point that because these frauds are occurring that people are, probably, oversensitive to the situation. TSTC is no more likely a fraud than it was last week but you wouldn't think that from the board.
That said I welcome any discussions and questions - any stockholder should - if it comes out of it unscathed then so much the better.
rich
TXIC - CEO & CFO gone - sounds like there's something to discuss here.
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/txic_tongxin_intl_ltd_com/research/comments_business_outlook/0027325
rich
TSTC - I'm kidding about the 1 guy - I'm not bothered what size they are provided they did the job.
OK, so if I was doing this without WFDS I would have to put up transmitters / receivers for each of the different wireless networks all over the builidng?
With WFDS you put in one set of transmitters and receivers and then configure which wireless operator you are going to work with on the basis of plug in modules?
rich
TSTC - you have to plug in all the wireless companies in? I did not know that. Do you have any notes from the conversation? I don't mind confirming what you found out with Quell - even if Quell is just 1 guy - as long as he did the work Think that's better than 30 people phoning them up to check.
rich
TSTC - that's interesting...
Quell I spoke to them 6 weeks ago as hospital project was just up & running & told me that wireless coverage was by far the highest readings consistently throughout the entire hospital ever garnered & AT&T & Verizon were very impressed... You can call yourself to verify....
Why were AT&T and Verizon involved in the process?
rich
TSTC - hehe fair enough. The press release [1] gave the contract value $2M and Houston as it's exclusive sales area so I don't think investors could get a head of themselves.
The website sucks but the PR wasn't an evaluation of the private company. The power of the PR was that TSTC's solution was chosen, if the choice was compromised then that is a valid criticism, and that the results were successful - if they weren't impressive field strengths that would be sharp point against TSTC.
What the PR does is give people interested in TSTC a way of checking the validity of their product with a site you can easily visit and people you can talk to without any loss in translation. If TSTC were a dodgy company then that's a big risk to take for a PR and $2m sales.
rich
[1] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/817129/000114420410042116/v192981_ex99-1.htm
TSTC - why does Quell smell? Other than they way it rhymes?
rich
TXIC - according to this geoinvesting posting there is a powerplay going on between the good guys and bad guys (though it's not crystal clear which is which ).
Worth keeping an eye on with who resigns, if anyone.
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/company.aspx?g=posts&t=3757
http://geoinvesting.com/forums/m/yaf_postsm4488_Tongxin-Shareholders-Urged-to-Take-Action.aspx#4488
Got to love investing
rich
After the 13% jump on Thursday I was expecting consolidation. I was surprised that it even went up - and on twice normal volume as well.
Looking at the 5 day graph it looks like only 100K got it up 13% and since then it's been treading water.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BSPM&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
After a big jump there's always lots of people prepared to sell their shares in the hope of buying in lower and riding up. Here's a guy.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_B/threadview?m=tm&bn=88940&tid=7142&mid=7142&tof=1&frt=2
As you can see I know nothing about TA but above average volume and price increasing sounds positive to me. Throw in we know the current sales for the main product are going well and the upgrade we have the fundamentals and a catalyst.
Anything not to like?
rich
CCGY - contributor article from geoinvesting boards
http://geoinvesting.com/forums/m/yaf_postsm4394_China-Clean-Energy-OTC-BBCCGY-A-Hidden-Gem.aspx#4394
rich
RINO T1 -> T12
Halt - Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ
Trading is halted pending receipt of additional information requested by NASDAQ.
Good thing is it's over quick.
rich
HCI - I did not notice that. Regardless, I'm sure Rames would like some extra credit and eyes on his site. For a small fee he could even remove RINO from the top of the short chart
rich
HCI newletter on ChinaSmallcap-(Table looks like from Rames website)
http://www.hcinternational.net/pdf/hc_newsletters/HCI_China_Newsletter_November_2010.pdf
rich
CCGY - contributor article from geoinvesting boards
http://geoinvesting.com/forums/m/yaf_postsm4394_China-Clean-Energy-OTC-BBCCGY-A-Hidden-Gem.aspx#4394
rich
RINO - I haven't read any hate on this board at least - did i miss that exchange? ONP has suspicions but jury is still out but looks like they bagged RINO. If these guys are unmasking frauds then they should be applauded - obviously it's a fine line between success and failure here. I'll certainly keep reading their work.
Regardless, there's now a business in finding Chinese frauds. It raises the bar for would be fraudsters.
rich
They are going to do 22 cents or so this year. They have been ramping up this year - so you'd think that 2011 Y/Y are going to beat 2010 comfortably. Especially if the diesel keeps in demand. They were quite confident in giving a 2010 estimate so perhaps similar for 2011? You could imagine 26 cents ish.
They are looking at buying an oil supplier - that will boost the margin and the value of the stock. That will use between 8 - 10 million in, I assume mainly, cash. They are getting near that now.
There are some warrants but I don't know when / if they can be called in at a certain PPS.
They are at 89% and 26% of Specialty chemical and bio-diesel so they might need to upgrade the facility / get a new facility?
There certainly seems plenty of catalysts to get it over $2 if they are careful with their equity.
rich
Redchip research note 16th Nov
http://www.redchip.com/files/redchipReports/LPH_20101117_1QFY11ResearchNote.pdf
rich
NEP - some folks were worrying that Friday after-hours is time to hide information. Your not holding with that pessimism?
My thoughts are providing they are getting drilling contracts I'm holding.
rich
BSPM - yah, for R&R a buy is a $7 target and a 10% dilution in the works or am I being cynical?
rich
Rodman & Renshaw - do they initiate even if they can't get a secondary? I wonder what the rep is?
Still, since BSPM is piling on the cash they are not desperate for cash.
It was my favorite CC which I've listened to anyway. Answered all the questions and gave two forward catalysts.
rich
BSPM: Rodman & Renshaw has initiated Biostar Pharmaceuticals (BSPM) with a "market outperform" rating and a price target of $7, saying its hepatitis B drug Xin Aoxing could drive future growth for the Chinese Pharma company.
Rodman and Renshaw has initiated Biostar Pharmaceuticals with a “market outperform” rating, saying its hepatitis B drug Xin Aoxing could drive future growth for the Chinese Pharma company.
"Biostar has established strong historical revenue growth with its flagship product Xin Aoxing targeting the world's largest hepatitis B market. The company's future growth could be driven by increasing market penetration of Xin Aoxing in addition to a pipeline of smaller marketed products," analyst Elemer Piros wrote in a note to clients.
Xin Aoxing targets the largest hepatitis B market in the world - China -- as one third of the world's hepatitis B patients reside in that country. The market for hepatitis B drugs could potentially grow multiple folds from current $700 million in China, the analyst said.
Meanwhile, China's economic growth is predicted to outpace the rest of the world in 2010 and 2011, with the pharmaceutical industry seen as a key contributor to overall growth. Based on the announced $124 billion healthcare budget for 2009-2011, the analyst believes the potential demand for pharmaceutical products could increase by six-fold in 2010.
In addition, Xin Aoxing is one of the few over-the-counter (OTC) drugs approved by State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) in China for the treatment of hepatitis B. The OTC classification allows Biostar to conduct direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertisement campaigns and to build regional brand name.
Sales of Xin Aoxing reached $35 million in the first three quarters of 2010, contributing 67 percent of total revenue. For the recently concluded third quarter, Biostar reported 10 percent growth in profit on 30 percent rise in revenues. Sales of Xin Aoxing Capsules increased 7.9 percent to $12.9 million with a gross margin of 84.3 percent.
Though the sales of Xin Aoxing slowed during the third quarter due to the policy of strict cash collection, the order rate for Xin Aoxing started to rebound at the end of the third quarter and continued to accelerate through October.
Piros expects Xin Aoxing sales could reach $50 million in 2010 and $80 million in 2013.
ADRs of Xianyang-based Biostar closed Wednesday's regular trading session at $2.68 on the Nasdaq. For the past 52-weeks, the stock has touched a high of $5.51 and a low of $2.32.
http://hken.ibtimes.com/articles/83249/20101118/biostar-biostar-pharmaceuticals-xin-aoxing-hepatitis-b-drug-treatment-xin-aoxing-china-otc-dtc-ad-ca.htm
Ideally, institutional should be as high as possible. Institutional holders should be willing to look longer term and in effect lock up the float.
It's only just uplisted to the AMEX and until it did that large institutional investors cannot buy the stock. Indeed many will be unable to buy the stock until it's over $5. Institutions are more conservative and will like to kick the tires before getting involved. So, around 4 million institutional held shares seems a good start.
Insider ownership is around 60%. So there's going to be a big lock up of shares. Some institutions don't like quite so much ownership as it means they will have difficulty getting a big enough stake in the company - assuming they like it.
Anyway, 4M new institutional shares and 41M shares which are not held by institutions or insiders down from 45M. That's an underestimate as other holders, such as Glen, aren't required to register their interest. So that around 10% locked up in a quarter.
rich
RINO / BORN - I think it goes to show what an incompetent management can do for a stock - not "Yes" or "No" but "I don't know" - it's like they're trying to put a hole in the stock.
The odd thing is that clearly someone knew something given the short level. However, no-one wanted to kill it. They let it see-saw up and down until finally Muddy did the coup de grace.
Meanwhile, as far as I can tell, BORN has had a similar doubt cast but decides to bluff it out and say were not engaging in this stuff - certainly lasted longer. Strikes me that the market will be looking for the next RINO and is going to call the bluff. I'm guessing silence isn't an option.
rich
Thought CCGY had one of the best quarters of the companies I follow. Cash flow positive, revenue growth. I think it sells off because they don't do much in the way of PR so the next obvious catalyst will by FY results.
They also could benefit from the diesel shortage.
rich
Yes, I didn't make notes until the Q&A but they are very valid points.
rich