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Overall Markets: I've been waiting to buy, but holding off, because of the overall markets. Normally in this market, dips mean buy. Not so sure today.
I had thought that this AM was going to see a fast spike up in the AM to let people out, then a slow bleed all day, as many might not want to hold before the Crimea vote.
Or, a gap down and then slow bleed all day. Either way, I figured a slow bleed. So far, I'm wrong. We'll see.
So, just waiting a bit still to see, oh and dogs line themselves up along the polar axis to poop. Just my random thoughts.
Woohooo! Congrats hesse! That's a great transaction you made there. Happy Friday for you and the wife!
CYTR $3.86 - High Watch - Panic Selling
I've traded it 2 or 3 times before and successfully, so may be giving it another go. They had an offering in the past month or so and in the last few days had been getting the heck beat out of it, from stories about using paid promoters, etc.
They have data being released soon again if I remember correctly. Will be looking into that.
It's broken through some support levels and the 200DMA ($3.59) is coming up. My guess is that holds pretty well. At least bounces off of it (if it gets there) and should be able to get a gain out of that. Then set stop loss thereafter with gain. and/or hold for data runup.
7 DAYS OF RELENTLESS SELLING (today the 8th). Watching closely.
Yup - thanks Smurf. RGDX has been taken down a bit by these markets. Sometimes they break into a new pattern and its up to us then to decide if everything is still in play. Am holding it for now still.
OT: Morning Folks - Happy Friday.
Hope hesse is hanging in there ok with baby on the way.
LXRX - Sold 1/2 holdings for $483.99 Loss.
Still holding 2,000. Sold due to market being limpy and hanging on. Wanted to reduce my holding in it in case things get goofy. May buy back again when more confident in overall markets.
Status Filled at $1.7215
Symbol LXRX
Description LEXICON PHARMACEUTICALS INC COM
Action Sell
Quantity 2,200 Shares
Thanks horent. Today is done, good - bad - or otherwise. Move on to the next and see what tomorrow brings.
How was your investment/trading day?
OPTIONS: Long Post here : I tried my first option in a year yesterday by buying 10 of the SDS (Ultrashort the SPX ETF) $30 Call for a premium of $.12. I had posted a few times that I was leery of the market and was watching the SPX for clues. That's when I entered.
So in English for those that don't know...
Each option you buy is 100 shares. So 10 x 100 = 1,000 shares of SDS x $.12 = $120 cost to me ($12 or so for fees). So about $132 cost to me for the trade.
At this exact moment, the SDS call is
.23 bid x .24 ask
.23 x 10 calls x 100 = $230
So Ned Jr. is up about 80-90% on the $120 plus fees option.
Going forward I will be using options a lot as hedges. When the market is teetering on total happiness, I'll buy the opposite. If the stocks I'm holding go down, then this hedge will help to offset those losses.
The most that I can lose on this trade is the $120 + fees. It's capped. The most that I can make is unlimited. It does have an expiration date, which is Saturday, but in actuality its Friday afternoon close. I chose Friday's expiration. I could have chosen next Friday's but then the premium was too expensive for my puny trade.
So by Friday afternoon's close, this trade is expecting the SDS to be at $30. Right now its...$29.12. When I bought it yesterday it was $28.40 or so. I bought according to my 15 min chart.
I can sell the option at any time. Right now I could lock in the $100 and be on my way. Since it's such a puny amount, I'll probably let it roll and see if the market dips into the close and then dips on tomorrow's open. If that happens, I may get $200-$400 out of it.
I only had $150 or so available cash in the Ned JR. account. But going forward you can see that instead of buying 10 options, I could buy 30 or 50. So a $300 or $500 option buy for the $SPX or NASDAQ to go the other way, might be a good amount to *waste* each month as insurance. If my stocks all go up, then $300 or $500 won't mean much. If they all go down, then that $300 helps to heal the losses.
Let me know if anyone would like me to post info like this about options or not. I've done enough to know the basics, but like always, I have my own way of doing them and its not always like what most do. I have a LOT to learn about them.
word. (I'm not going back to re-read and edit - so is what it is :)
APPY : Yes, I heard that part, and IMO all these companies kinda gloss over that and make it sound like they have enough cash. I'm not smart enough to know all the details going forward, with how much cash they have, and if they need to do an offering, or with X number of shares short, and if they submit the NDA in 2 weeks then add that to 90 days for response divide by market fluctuations, or how long it'll be until they can start selling (he mentioned no sales being lined up of course until after approval), etc.
So for me its a "take the money and run" and watch the chart later for a selloff and entry upon a bounce, but I need a catalyst for that. Maybe the NDA, or...
like the great fozzy bear and kermit sang "Moving right along"
Good job :) I typically will watch the Full Stochastic to give me confirmation of whether its got more room to go. The RSI on HTM has boogied up, and can remain there, once the Full STO has gone up over 80 then its officially overbought, but both of those indicators can remain there. Depends upon the reason (PR's etc.) as you know.
Get a big stick of butter for that kitchen, hesse's on a roll.
ELTP $.50ish - Bought 20,000
I may add up to 20,000 more if it falls to $.45ish or lower which I think it has a decent chance of doing. Don't mind being a little early here with the catalysts and the company's overall makeup. Better a little early then too late with this one.
Still watching overall markets. Am not going to add any other than ELTP right now until I feel more comfy in overall market.
Buy 10,000 Shares of ELTP
Order Number: C13NVFGM
Details
Filled at $0.505
Buy 10,000 Shares of ELTP
Order Number: C13NVKSW
Details
Filled at $0.506
Ned Jr. sold CBLI for loss (i think $400 - will post later) and bought ELTP for 6,500 shares at $.52.
I figure I don't need to hit exact low for ELTP, its a good price here. Will be better at $.45 or lower, but never know when a PR will come.
CRIS $3.06 Waiting...paid off. If you want in, wait until it hits the sloping up lower RSI line on the Daily, or the 15 Min chart. They're both closing in.
I'm not sure I'm going to enter it yet. Only because I have to see how my funds are available, and watching overall market. Still cautious about market turning down overall.
Just worry about your $$ and your trades and post here when you can. There's always too much going on in life to keep up.
Again, fantastic. Rule #1: don't lose money, Rule #2: make money
I like the way you followed the rules.
Smurf!!! Awesome!! 58% Wow. Keep focused and thanks for sharing. I never had the time to check INNV.
ELTP $.56 - Looking good but...for me, I am looking for some type of signal on my charts, something like a broken resistance ...then back to support, or an intra-day double bottom, etc. Am waiting for that. Is some resistance here at $.56.
CYTR: $4.20 - I would normally be buying here as its a GREAT support, but today there's PR about CYTR being a part of a pump n dump paid promotion system. FYI: I was reading CYTR's boards for months while playing. THere was a poster there who showed that they were a PAID poster, so it was not hidden. So I may wait this one out a little, or stay out for now. Dunno.
Welcome diannedawn. I am not in any of those at the moment but did play IGXT once before successfully (runup before PDUFA).
My biggest problem was deciding my exits on stocks. Since being on this board, and posting questions and thoughts, I'm doing better.
I am watching IGXT every few days to keep updated on its movement. Best of Luck.
hesse, So i can learn my exits better. How did you decided your exit price? Market order? Stop loss order? I put in a trailing stop loss of $.12 (random price) for the first batch of 2,000. got $3.67 I think it was. I was going to set a tighter stop loss but i figure to give it some leeway (sp?).
thx
ELTP $.50 - Watching for entry...
CYTR $4.51 - Watching for entry...
ACST $1.24 - Watching for entry...
hesse - This calls for something we used to say back in the day..."Fu#$@#!g! Aaaaaayyyy" (edited right after seeing a *new* woman to the board - trying to be on best behavior)
GREAT TRADE! BABY gets a new pair of shoes, crib, and what the hell, get a nanny too!
Congrats!
APPY $3.45 Sold All +28% +$3,157.97
Much better than the $245 I almost sold it for yesterday.
Order Status
Sell 2,000 Shares of APPY
Order Number: C13NDBBX
Details
Filled at $3.67
Sell 2,000 Shares of APPY
Order Number: C13NFWKN
Details
Filled at $3.4203
APPY Sold 2,000 @ $3.67
Status Filled at $3.67
Symbol APPY
Description VENAXIS INC COM
Action Sell
Quantity 2,000 Shares
Route FDLM
Order Type Trailing Stop Limit at $3.67
Ehhh it's a good trade so far. Very Appy, but its not a Booomski. Stays in the account to grow more, but eventually medical bills and more bills.
Yeah, KPAX was that Kevin Spacey movie. So, i agree, no NVax.
Sam is a good strong name. I wonder when Orville and Wilbur names will be back in style. Seems names go in cycles.
CRIS - Thanks Smurf. I'll be watching it with you for an entry. Also will be watching ELTP for an entry. I want to get back in it very soon.
Best of Luck! Here's to hoping it all goes smoothly for you and your wife. Some people name their kids after events that occurred when born like the city they were born in, or name of cab driver (if born in cab - if not - that's kinda weird).
Maybe you can sneak a "smurf(ette)" or "ned(nedine)" or "dvax" (was that the one you made bang off of?) or "appy" (only if it gets going and gets over $5).
I like Dvax. This is my son D-Vax. Nobody gonna mess with him.
I copied your post and put it up on $heff's board in a reply to trade2much. Thanks.
APPY Positive results:
Venaxis, Inc. (Nasdaq: APPY), an in vitro diagnostic company focused on obtaining FDA clearance for and commercializing its CE Marked APPY1™ Test, a rapid, multiple biomarker-based assay for identifying patients that are at low risk for appendicitis, today announced positive top-line results from its pivotal U.S. study. The APPY1 Test performed well, with sensitivity and negative predictive value results that exceeded those from the previous pilot study. The company believes these pivotal results are sufficient for potential FDA clearance and expects to finalize its 510(k) submission and file with the FDA in the next few weeks.
link: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/venaxis-announces-positive-top-line-110000071.html
In the measure of negative predictive value (NPV), which is the primary metric for the APPY1 Test, the results were 97.3%, with a lower 95% confidence limit of 95.5%. Additionally, the APPY1 Test performed with sensitivity of 96.9% (lower 95% confidence limit of 94.9%). Specificity for APPY1 was 37.8% (lower 95% confidence limit of 35.3%), which is believed to be adequate for an adjunctive, negative predictive test such as the APPY1 Test. Overall prevalence of appendicitis was 25%, which was also in line with expectations and the medical literature.
Top line data statistics for the recently completed pivotal clinical study (CP-12) as compared to the prior pilot study (CP-11), are summarized as follows:
Pivotal Study (CP-12)
Pilot Study (CP-11)
Result
95% CI
# Patients
Result
95% CI
# Patients
NPV
97.3%
(95.5 – 98.3)
1,887
96.9%
(92.9 – 98.7)
503
Sensitivity
96.9%
(94.9 – 98.1)
96.5%
(92.1 – 98.5)
Specificity
37.8%
(35.3 – 40.4)
43.2%
(38.2 – 48.3)
Principal study investigator Dave Huckins, M.D., stated, "These top-line results reflect improved test performance for negative predictive value and sensitivity compared to Venaxis' previous 500-patient pilot study. This is highly significant for a number of reasons. In addition to involving many more hospital sites and patients, for the first time in this pivotal study the APPY1 Test was performed on-site in real time at each participating hospital, by hospital personnel, as the test would be run in the real clinical setting. The pivotal study also enrolled a more ethnically diverse patient demographic compared with the previous 500-patient pilot study. The fact that the APPY1 Test performance matched, and even improved upon, the previous results in the face of these 'real world' factors adds significant robustness to the pivotal study results."
Steve Lundy, President and CEO of Venaxis™, stated, "The positive outcome from this study is a significant achievement for Venaxis, and I want to commend our team and our clinical partners on a very well-run study. Also of note, the APPY1 Tests used during the study were produced from multiple manufacturing lots, demonstrating their reproducibility. We are working now to complete our analysis of the data for inclusion into our 510(k) package to the FDA, which we expect to submit in the next few weeks. While we await its review, our market development activities continue to accelerate not only in Europe, but also in in the United States, where we've begun collecting important hospital and physician market data and identifying hospitals that have significant influence and community outreach. Our goal is to be well positioned for successful product launch upon potential FDA clearance of the APPY1 Test."
---------------
hat tip to hesse
Awwww. I forgot about the fact that you're having a little one coming. How soon?
"Baby gets a new pair of shoes" actually does apply in this case :)
Thanks Hesse. Have your coffee yet?
Thanks. que sera sera. I may lighten my load in Premarket. Will sleep on it.
CRIS $3.17 - CRIS is looking good overall for a move up. The only major concern I have is its overbought on the 15 Min Chart, although it may give a kick up still before heading down.
Remember, I choose a stock on the Daily and then choose my entrance (and exits) on the 15 Min chart (then sometimes follow up with the 2 min chart too to see if trend is changing fast).
CRIS Daily chart below: RSI sloping up, Full Stoch trending up, MACD above 0 and looking to cross.
15 Min chart: RSI sloping down a bit and it sitting just above a "mini" (not always trustable) support line. Full Stoch is overbought. If you're not in a hurry, you can probably wait until Full Stoch retreats back down for an entrance. It's knocked at the door 3x to go past $3.18 and is trying now. I have a theory (yes - i have a lot) that a stock seems to knock 3x and after the 3rd try it normally breaks or retreats until it gets more courage later.
So a play for an entrance may be, if it breaks $3.17 and shoots up, then wait for it to retrace to $3.17 to buy in. Or, wait for it to go to $3.07 and buy.
I rarely if ever buy on the 15 Min chart with the Full Stoch overbought, unless there's some news/momo pushing it.
What are the dates for CRIS? Is it trial data, adcom or PDUFA? Thanks Smurf.
15 Min Chart
Or can always sell some AH now if you like and reduce risk and go with a low amount or free riding shares.
My avg jumped to $2.75 now. You have a much nicer $2.44 :) Want to sell me some of yours for $2.92?
I wasn't going to hold through either. I like buying in the run-up and then selling to avoid risk.
I bought in AH today because quite frankly, again..i think people are greedy and I figure that it will go up in between the announcement this afternoon and tomorrow morning. I figure I could sell the 2,000 I bought now in pre-market tomorrow. I believe the odds are that the price will be higher than the $2.92 that I bought in AH. I could be wrong. So be it.
The problem that you have is...the press conference is at 8:30 AM eastern. So that's 5:30 AM your time?
Also, I believe it's not uncommon to actually put a news release out with the data first and then follow it up with the conference. I remember they did that with CYTR I think. Or, I forget, but I think they did. Then again that conference was in the afternoon (or I think it was).
In APPY's case. The product is being used in Europe if everything I read is correct. And they had done previous studies too that were positive. So, all that's in my head.
Lastly, there's a few tweets of people saying just because its scheduled for tomorrow AM doesn't mean it's positive, and then they mention CLSN. I don't have any idea about that one. And of course that's true.
Here's to hoping that "baby gets a new *fancy* set of cookware"
No idea. I just figure its gotta be a lot higher then it is now. Here's a snippet of info from Bob Stock's seeking alpha article written last month:
Conclusion
Venaxis has a market cap of $50 million with a current price per share of $2.42. Therefore, I consider Venaxis to be a very promising company with great potential for price appreciation. I believe it warrants a price per share of $6 to $7 based on successful data results (in Q1/2014) and revenue projections. Canaccord Genuity gives APPY a $7.00 price target.
link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1994961-biota-pharmaceuticals-inc-and-venaxis-inc-2-upcoming-biopharmaceuticals-catalysts-that-could-generate-big-gains
----------------
I'll be checking Bob's board to see his thoughts about the results coming up tomorrow. It seems to have had positive data all along from what I've read. Will probably hold 1/2 or all through tomorrow's news.
APPY Bought 2,000 @ $2.92 After Hours. From past experiences, and how its been trading, I feel that they are going to announce positive data tomorrow morning.
Just my opinion and may be off on it. I may sell these 2,000 I just bought in pre-market tomorrow if price has gone up and save the other 2,000 for the news. Will see what tomorrow brings.
Buy 2,000 Shares of APPY
Order Number: C12PVXD
Details
Filled at $2.92
Holding 4,000 now. I was going to buy 2,000 earlier this AM, then was going to sell my 2,000 near the close. Was one of those indecision days for me.
APPY : Results PR tomorrow. I Have an order for 2,000 @ $2.92, looking to swing trade it until tomorrow. Not sure if it'll get hit or not. Am thinking positive news. Otherwise, just PR the bad news out now.
---------------------------
CASTLE ROCK, Colo., March 12, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Venaxis, Inc. (Nasdaq: APPY), an in vitro diagnostic company focused on obtaining FDA clearance for and commercializing its CE Marked APPY1™ Test, a rapid, multiple biomarker-based assay for identifying patients that are at low risk for appendicitis, today announced it will host a conference call to discuss top-line results from its pivotal study of the APPY1 Test tomorrow, Thursday, March 13, 2014, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The conference call will be hosted by Steve Lundy, Chief Executive Officer.
Interested participants and investors may access the conference call by dialing 1-877-870-4263 (U.S.), 1-855-669-9657 (Canada) or 1-412-317-0790 (international). A live audio webcast will be accessible via the Investor Relations section of the Venaxis web site, ir.venaxis.com.
CRIS - Will do so later tonight Smurf. Looking forward to learning more about your thoughts on it.
I had been holding off buying even though there's some plays out there I like (ACST - ELTP)among others, because of the markets unable to break through and limping. Am fearful of a selloff into the close.
Am up 4.5% on APPY (only $230) but it moves faaaaaaaast when the market dips or surges. I only watched it before. Since I've owned it, it fips up and down fasssst. Good to know for the future. I like APPY going forward but am contemplating selling to lock in a profit (even if the profit is $230 and 4%). $230 is better then -$230. Fear of others jumping in or missing out on a run keeps me from selling it.
Fear sucks.