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Additional common sense is that me and a line of other investors would gladly step up our investment to protect it and the money we're talking here is peanuts.
F18
Very predictable that the day the company announces they are producing copper that Hammer would not acknowledge such and make a big deal out of nothing. I feel a short squeeze is about to happen.
F18
Unless you own more than 30 mil shares, you are not the top dog.
F18
Hold on to your hats.....The additional 80k pounds of copper per day just bumped my pps projections up an additional $.20/share.
As this news gets digested over the weekend look out.
F18
The reason they may do this now is being able to buy the assets for pennies on the dollar.
f18
Zippo....I wonder if their plans changed because a cheap used SX/EW came available and they had plenty of money from the coverage they've received lately. The OS share count has gone up pretty quickly and an early acquisition of an SX/EW would be one time when they may have under promised and over delivered.
F18
JTF...I was thinking the exact same thing when I read that. I guess if they get the SX/EW process up running much sooner than we all thought, it makes the concentrate buyer a bigger moot point than it already is. Pure copper cathodes could be loaded on trucks in our near future. IMO, that would bring revs much quicker than the normal time to get paid for concentrate. Of course, the plan is to produce both.
F18
If that was indeed a buy, it may have been short covering by the MMs buddies or new shares in the MMs personal account. Either way, it looks like a classic "painting of the tape" event.
F18
Copper prices have broken through the short-down trend and now can resume the uptrend we had a couple weeks ago. Seems this market is in rally mode which only helps drive copper higher as ecconomic growth prospects get better.
Cramer said last night that everyone needs a mining stock in their diversified portfolios.
Who knows why our pps is under pressure but I suspect it has nothing to do with what is happening in Milford this week.
F18
My understanding is that the at the end of the soft start and beginning of full production they would be running about 2500 tones/day. However, the mill was engineered to handle 6,000 to 6,500 tones/day.
F18
Yes....except for a couple weeks each year to shut everything down for maintenance.
F18
Could very well be true.....I just wonder why anyone would sell that many shares all at once. Seems more prudent to sluff them off a little at a time or to wait for a large volume day driven by news to sell bigger lots. The way this was done smells like manipulation to me.
F18
Just speculating here but I wonder if a large shareholder had a trailing stop order w/o a limit price and the MMs just couldn't resist the temptation to snatch up some cheap shares.
F18
CPRK does not ever sell shares directly into the open market. That would require a lot of paper work. Rather, they sell to individuals in private transactions.
F18
One theory for today's action is that CPRK may have finally converted the WUCC shareholders into CPRK stock.....Maybe someone from the WUCC days has grown inpatient or simply needed to raise some money to pay for their kid’s braces…..
F18
Hard for me to say this but in this case I think the ends will justify the means.
F18
Good questions.....I don't have any answers for you except to say this would be one heck of a stupid scam if it turns out to be one. All the money is going into the mill.....seems kind of silly if there isn't a plan to sell copper concentrate.
F18
He clearly does not have enough time to read books....or travel....He only has time to monitor stock chat boards all day and write negative things about "his" investment.
Oink...oink.
F18
I only suggested Wikipedia to wet their appetite....Need to learn how to crawl before you get invited to the Olympics.
F18
A quick way to get a crash course on some of these details is to use Wikipedia....
F18
Wow.....you're going to hold all the way until Christmas? Thought you were selling on the next uptick. Or are you saying there won't be any upticks until Christmas? I'm so confused.
F18
MD clearly has made more than a few mistakes and should be held accountable for them.....however, you would not be so excited about the dirt had MD not been successful at consolidating all of it into one company. While the mill is long over due, it will be running very soon...perhaps within hours. From my three visits to see it, I don't believe anyone can fully understand the complexity unless they've seen it for themselves.
Comparing MD to Bernie Madoff is the most outrageous thing I've heard on this board in a few days. Bernie Madoff didn't even buy any stock...it was all a big scam. From what I can tell, MD has spent every dime of our investment money on our investment. The dirt w/o the mill isn't worth much. I agree with Hammer's point that the mill isn't worth much until it actually works....I hope if/when the mill produces concentrate the whining will be replaced with appreciation and the MD bashing will be replaced with MD admiration.
Lastly, if (IMO when) CPRK's share price is well above your initial purchase price, do you think that perhaps you will be grateful that you were able to buy some many more shares at much lower prices? I know that because the share price has fallen, I'm now set to make a boatload more than I could have before. IMO, what was a great investment at .07 and 2 billion shares OS has become an absolute steal at .02 and 3 billion o/s.
F18
You have not paid attention to my posts for the past several months. I have painted both the pro and con side. I've never respected anyone with a 100% view on either side.
F18
"i just state things which are true, and/or inevitable"
The prophet Hammer has spoken. Well then...I guess that settles it.
F18
9 to 1 odds? Hummm, I'll take that bet!!! In this case, I would probably even take even money.
F18
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5160120/A-Copper-Standard-for-the-worlds-currency-system.html
Wow....this could be huge. Fits with Wikipedia's claim that we will run out of natural copper within 25-60 years.
Can you imagine how high it could go if other industrial countries get into a bidding war with China for copper.
F18
We could see some selling pressure tomorrow but the registration change was filed on 4-10 and we've done pretty well since then. I would not be surprised if the pps holds .02.
F18
Unfortunately, they have some bridge loans that need to be paid in the next 8 months and they would not have enough from operations or from stock sales to do that. LT financing is essential.
F18
I suspect the first point may be correct but I doubt seriously they have sold an additional 600 million shares into the market at these low prices.
F18
When a company buys back shares it does not change the AS number at all. It reduces the OS number and it does cost the company whatever they pay to purchase the shares from the previous shareholder.
I believe that Mark and his board have some people in mind that they feel will be willing to sell tens of millions of their shares back to the company in private deals. Some of these people may have received shares under performance agreements that were not honored by the shareholders. Rather than getting the shares back in expensive and time consuming law suits, I believe settlements will be reached that will benefit both sides.
I also believe they will also aggressively buy back shares in the open market as long as the price is cheap.
F18
I would not say that won't become a big deal because I think any time a company dilutes its shares it is not good for shareholders....especially those who bought at higher amounts.
However, despite significant progress towards production, the market cap of this company is 60% less today at $.02 and 3 billion shares than it was a year ago at 2 billion shares and $.07 price. IMO, this creates a great opportunity to average down and grab a much bigger stake in this company now than you could have had before the recent dilution.
This will be especially true if the Company obtains LT financing and uses some of it to buy back the shares they've HAD to issue to build the mill. If you are a believer that production is close and that they have billions of pounds of copper in the ground, than I think a few hundred million more shares issued will not be a big deal in the long run.
F18
At today's stock price, each 50 million shares is about $1 million in operating capital. With a payroll of say $100,000 per week (5 million shares) and with most if not all of the major infrastructure in place, it is sure hard to see how they could blow through 650 million shares before August.
IMO we should focus on the OS number not the AS number. I also believe this means we're closer to LT financing....not the other way around.
F18
3.5 billion A/S is not the same as 3.5 O/S. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. This is just another example of our mgmt group being really bad at PR. If they had just raised it from 2.5 billion to 3.5 billion instead of 3.0 billion a few weeks ago, it would be a non-issue.
I'm confident that the increase is necessary to keep their options open on financing and to have some room to grow in the future for employee stock options, etc.
I'm also confident that when LT financing is secured, they will do everything they can to get the O/S number back to below 2.5 billion.
F18
Funny how we're all using the same source....I've been using CNBC for a while now.
F18
I respect your opinion...however I still believe we did have naked shorters in our sandbox until earlier this year.
The pps is up 100% in the last 3 months in the face of increasing the o/s several hundred million shares. If I understand your theory, we should have continued to see pps declines over the past few months.
F18
Zippo....thanks for the confidence...
In my projection, I am currently using 3,500 tons per day, 65% efficiency, 5%-10% smelter discounts, 340 production days per year and the expected ore ratios that the company shared with us in Feb that FFF has already shared.
I project an average day they will produce 80,000 pounds of copper, 29 oz of gold, 2,050 oz of silver and 1,225 tons of Magnetite.
At today's prices for copper, gold, silver and magneite, and after accounting for all expenses I can think of (including depreciation and taxes), I project a daily profit of about $75,000. This amounts to about $25 million per year which is a bit less than .01 per share earnings. I believe the PE multiple will be much higher than most mining companies and can easily see the share price at $.20-$.30.
This does not factor in expansion with SX/EW which would greately enhance the efficiency and eliminate the smelter discount and the freight expense at least for the ore processed throught he SX/EW.
I do not have anything in my projection for Molly or for revenues that might be received if weprocess other company's ore through our mill.
F18
Colorado....I agree it isn't likely that anyone is taking a new short position on this stock but some believe it was heavily shorted down from much higher levels and that the outfits that do this kind of thing would rather not have to ever cover their shares. The only way to not have to ever cover your short position is to kill the company.
Personally, I believe the company was being naked shorted but those who were doing it have stopped shorting and are now either quietly trying to cover or have taken a wait and see position.
F18
FFF,
I think you explained it better than I. Good work.
F18
Jimmy,
It has already been written but I'll try to elaborate further. Most companies' share prices are a multiple of their earnings. If I promised you $1 per year in earnings for 25 years, the stock price should theoretically be the present value of the $25 dollars.
You are only looking at the first dollar. Another factor is the potential for growth. A company earning $1 today may be able to expand their operation and earn $2 later. The potential for growth makes the multiple greater. Most larger mining companies that cannot grow very fast and trade at a multiple of 10 times their one year earnings. I think CPRK will trade much higher than that because of their growth potential.
F18
I agree they wouldn't need to raise for short term cash flow but I do think they may need to raise to secure LT financing.
F18