So IMO the low for today was IWM 101.16, unless the fed meeting min are really bad for the market.

Ok, I have to think you are right about amzn puts, even the 280 is a stretch. Maybe go as low as 283 or so if the market has another strong selloff.

We are close to the point that we could rally up from here, just a little more downside. I wouldn't buy index calls since I may be wrong, and the downside is taking over. IWM 101.31 and SPY 164.9 is the current numbers, see the dax is rallying, but treasuries are moving up again in yield. So I think soon we move up a little.

I find it odd that the AMZN 280 puts traded as high as 0,77, yet amzn is pretty far from there.

I wonder if it portends a greater fall in the near future? Or just nervous longs buying protection?

I sold the IWM and AMZN puts I had held overnight. Don't remember what I bought them at, but sold at nice profit. Likely the market will trade up to the neck line of the head and shoulders.

I think the jobs report will be positive.

I was thinking today the IWM might fall to 101.15 which is the 50 DAY ma, any thoughts on today?

The SPY is still below the 50 day.

I tell people who want to trade for a living never to try it. It is a strange world and it's like trying to be a professional golfer, most people can't do it.

You can make a huge amount of money and still go off the rails and lose it all in as little as a day. I have seen people lose over 2 million overnight.

I see, as small as you can get contract wise, my odds are 20:1 it expires worthless at this point. The market would have to be down 200 points as AMZN just sort of follows the market right now. I don't think there is any AMZN particular events that are likely.

Thank for explaining.

So what is the details of your experiment?

A lot of chart indication were that AMZN and the market were oversold and due for a move back up. The 10 year declining in yield gave the market an excuse.

the only multi day option moves I have seen work out were calls or puts on a stock that was either coming up from a big down trend or down in the beginning of a decline from the absolute top.

And you still could have sold them for double the next day, bought back at nearly 1/2 the price and sold them for a much larger gain.

Rarely can one hold options for longer than 2 days and make money, actually rare overnight.

Roy, when you went broke in 2005, where did you get the money to make a comeback?

I have had similar problems a couple of times.

I like the 290 calls at 1.45 entry a lot better. I didn't buy them, but the point is to too make money no matter which way it plays.

Over and out, take care, if I post I don't pay as much attention to the market.

I would like selling at where you bought. :)

I still think 275- is a pretty extreme move on AMZN for the next 2.5 days, but bot a small position in the 275 puts at 0.29.

If AMZN drops like that, then SPY and IWM will as well.

I have done a lot of analysis of when options get priced for the best return.

It is often the day before they explode to the other side.

Maybe the market is due an up day, day is good day for an up day.

Bot a few AMZN 280 puts at 0.66.

I used to think experiments were only valid if I put money at risk, as though my money made a difference.

You can experiment on paper. And why change a successful trading strategy?

so the lower yield supports higher stock prices, at least for today?

Do you still own some AMZN 275 puts?

thanks, you could of course draw another down channel from the recent top to the current price.

But how do you know when AMZN has reached the top of the down channel and therefor might start back down?

Do you have a target for how high AMZN would go on this recovery?

well, there was a low today, not what you meant but technically correct.

I have no idea, depends to me on if it makes another attempt at a move to 290.

ANZN like most big caps overvalued stocks are stair stepping down.

well, the site was down maybe an hour, and now it is back up.

I would buy 290 calls at the recent price of 1.40 but I cant' take the heat, but I think for the next two days the stock has bottomed at 283,48,

All bets are off Wed >, it could tank again.

I must admit I am amazed at how these stocks strickly trade on technical trading, and when there is an up trend it continues, when there is a down trend it also continues.

Hard to believe that is all that influences these big stocks, but it is what it is.

As you might have heard, AMZN site is down. That could have added to the correction in AMZN stock.

Right now you can't buy stuff on AMZN.

you guys have no fear, regarding the AMZN 275 puts, I also owned them at 0.36 and was scared.

But I also bot 280 puts at 0.78, sold at 0.97.

Sold both, as I am not sure if AMZN will hold the line and go back up now. I just rather take a profit than take the chance.

I assume roy you are still sleeping with the 175 put on AMZN, it's like the last time on SPY puts, it worked but during the week it took a heck of a downturn before SPY fell.

Not sure what it means, 1078 sized contract on SPY 165 put just clicked off at 0.78.

so far sleeping with the fishes.

It could work, but it sure doesn't look like today. AMZN has to fall through what looks like support at 284.

Last post, I don't think it's going to happen Friday, but it wouldn't surprise me to see this market down 500.

I wonder how big a down day it would take for the FED to react?

I think the FED has helped the economy, but those days were over 6 months ago, now all they do is drive inflation for poor people. Rents, food, gas, electric, etc.

Last post, I am out of free posts.

IMO we could well settle at the lows of the day, any rally would be FRiday.

Becaues what is the point of rally today, you aren't going to convince anyone that this isn't a correction.

And I am in the camp that the market is 90% manipulated.

BTW, it seems to be they are dumping this puts, so that means the dump might be over for now.

Define ramp up? If you mean 167-167.30 or so, maybe yes, but a still a big down. IMO buying calls on indexes is like buying puts two weeks ago, you can make money but not much and it's very dangerious to do.

Now buying a call on the APPL or TSLA selloff is different. While I don't like TSLA valuation, and I did buy the puts today and have since sold them. Or even csco calls worked out.

IMO now it's better to put all the companies are so overvalued.

we can't tell, it could be the idea that there is a pomo that prompts some traders to buy up. Those who get the cash it, they may just build a bigger cash balance to power a really after Pomo stops.

Who knows, it's only a theory and only those that get the cash from their bonds know what they are doing with this cash.

I wouldn't bet on it, there is no reason they need to spend the money they get from POMO.

They could wait with cash for a lower market.

so now what? I am at a loss, don't want to buy puts today, calls are kind of expensive for what I can see for a possible recovery.

So anyone have any ideas for today or the EOD?

Roy, we did get exhaustion in the mini selling climax today, it could well be several days before we see another bout of selling.

I am not sure how much the SPY can recover, the danger zone for bulls is 167.-167.50 IMO. It may not get above 167 today.

sold those SPY 165 calls for a small profit, it we get back to 167 SPY I think that is the top of the recovery.

sorry, it was spy 166.50 calls at 0.65, sold at 0.80.

The price of the stock, I think it likely it stays above 140 during this week.

Understand I think in the next 2 years the stock will be back at 40 -60 something.

I did buy spy 166.50 calls at 0.65, while I make money, it isn't the best idea. Meaing I doubt I will make more that .20-.30

I wouldn't be fond of buying those TSLA puts at more than 1.20. I think it stays above 140,

I think the SPY trades back to 167-167.50 today or next day.

just wondering, now that you sold puts, do you want to buy calls? :)