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pick up few shares...........
it is chieeeeep.
why??
cash $2.322 million
a/r $0.266
or
10c per share based on 26.2 million shares.WOOOOWWWWW.
my friend....
the information(form 15-12g) you need is looking at you,headline news that is right in front of your eyes.
going dark....
in order to save $75k. I rather see no consultant fee of $125k+ for Carl too.A combined fees of $200K+ saved for 2021 would be wonderful.
what is the odds of breaking thru $5.50 today??
33% chance.Am I crazy?I am not,but the market is!Just like a drunken sailor with too much money in his pocket.
are we on the way to $5.50 next 2 days??
75% says YES.What a "SHORT SQUEEZE" ride the last the 10 days we had!Right between the legs and crushed many shorties' balls!!
ps-bigger question: is $7.0 within reach in 3 more months??Again,professional poker players don't even look at theirs cards and based next action purely on his opponent's body language: a pure bluffing game and what we have here at "cleveland-cliff casino".
size of the pumpers......
pony league,it needs much more muscles for the heavy lifting(from 3c to ????).
ps-I am ready to go back in at 2c.
Reversion is in the making.......
on its way back to 2c,which is about right.
not good for the pumpers...........
"Under the Internal Revenue Code 382 (IRC 382), a C corporation is required to have a limit to offset historic losses."
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/accounting/internal-revenue-code-382/
or
anything above 4c,I take it.
pumper without money.....
equals hog wash.
bears are doubling down and dare/scare you to bet.......
why?
$5.0 call option(going long):
4c,expiring in 2 days.
is this the buy of the month and a chance to kick the shorties between the leg(crush their balls)?Yes,pick up few 5/22/20 $5.0 call options between 3-4c,being long and a chance to kick buttes.Or get my butte kicked.
bottomline:
its all about risk and reward.I believe shorties definitely miscalculated the payout by 5 fold,it was stuck in a $4.00 max mentality on clf,suppose a dead cat and no bounce.
what happens when pumpers are out of steam(money)..............
stock back down to 2c,and here soon.
uhoh.............
another dumper on deck,this may be a bit more costly than the plan.
where is the 20c bs.........
I am not greedy,all I want is just a pity 5c,my cost-free money.
no "pump and dump" so far today.....
not a good sign,still have few more shares ready to crap out.please come back pumpers.
clf just hit $4.55......
"market bearish sentiment is so extreme and priced shares of clf at no higher than $4.55,anytime next week.It is willing to give a 10:1 maximum payout."
my take:
fundamental(next 3 month) are irrelevant,there are just too much casino money in-play.
reminded me of:
a professional card play don't even look his own cards,his plays are based on his opponent's facial expression,just that simple,a pure bluff game.
from the little "dumper".....
What happened to the 20c price?Hope it wasn't me for crapping on the stock at 5.3c.
bears were all out and moved to same side of the boat........
clobbered clf stock and feasting on the prices!
going forward,
option premium for spread:
4.5c(buy)/5.0c(sell) was only 5c(I just paid),expiring in 7 days(next friday)
or
market bearish sentiment is so extreme and priced shares of clf at no higher than $4.55,anytime next week.It is willing to give a 10:1 maximum payout.This is crazy.Wooowwwww.
post pandemics is a different ball of wax.........
2020:
net income negative,90% certain,ex+$1.6 million PPP.
back drop:
"25% Of US Restaurants Will Never Reopen: Opentable"
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/25-us-restaurants-will-never-reopen-opentable
better than what I thought.....
4q:
net income was $193k,instead of my -$100k estimate.
and
yearly:
net income of $193k(2019) vs $768k(2018)
without deep drill down,the deterioration of margin seems stopped,a good sign.Now on and out,it faced a much stronger challenge,and the outcome would be under much stress I am afraid.
quick estimate for 2020:
1q,eps=negative
2q,eps=negative
3q,eps=negative
4q,eps=break even(upgrade)
talk is cheap,show me it .......
can break out of 4c first before my hat is off to you.
a new de facto "dumper"...........
bought at 2.26c-2.3c,and dumped @3c.Wooowww,I am in heaven and thanks for pumping.
"Houston: we have a problem".......
"Hertz, which is currently in the fight of its life against bankruptcy, has cancelled 90% of its new car purchases for the 2020 model year"
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hertz-cancels-90-new-car-purchases-further-pressuring-already-desperate-automakers
worst case scenario again:
old clf $4.5
old aks -$1.5
or
new clf $3.0
or
aks a blunder(short term);a strategic move(long term)
or
buy shares between $3.0-$3.5(or sell $3.5p all day long)
Are we there yet(not loosing $)??
Are we there yet?
Will we see a $3 handle at the end of the week?50%.
A paradigm change in the making?...........
"Amazon reported first-quarter EPS of $5.01, short of consensus analyst estimates of $6.25."
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/20/05/15934894/amazon-analysts-react-to-q1-earnings-stock-sell-off-is-short-sighted
backdrop:
"For The First Time Ever, More Than Half Of The US Population Is Not Working"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tragic-record-first-time-ever-more-half-us-population-not-working
Internet sale space was crowded and likely be more so after the pandemic,as physical mortar stores were forced to convert existing model or quit,resulting a huge surge of suppliers all fighting for a shrinking consumer dollar as unemployment gone up.
bottom line:
Is Amazon a good shorting stock right before the next ER??Most likely I be doing otm call spread(credit).Again,things are a bitch.
Syco revenue drop update........
from CC:
For the month of April,reveue dropped 50%.
just a wild guess........
how bad would it be? Based on the size of the layoff,33% workers axed by Sysco,my topline drop estimate for 2q is -30%,3q -20%,and 4q -15%.
so what:
1q eps=negative(for ivfh in 2020)
2q eps=negative
3q eps=negative
4q eps=negative
all excluded PPP payment of $1.6 million.
and
4q 2019,income loss=-$100k is my guess.
When this is said and done,will ivfh come out as a stronger or weaker player in 2021(post pandemic world)??
from Sysco ER.......
"Sysco said sales were down 60% from a year earlier in late March."
action:
"slash nearly half-billion dollars in expenses, including furloughing and laying off 33% of its workforce."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sysco-warns-unprecedented-times-covid-crashes-restaurants
it is obvious the company took no money taken from PPP,with no layoff string attached,thus it is free to "right-size" the company for post pandemic new world.
big spread.....
you can drive a truck through it.Sit tight.Next ER is coming up shortly,the number is overdue to improve this time around.
volume up to 300k+......
price down to 6c.Woooowwwww.Cheeeeeeeeeiiiip.
not much volume........
the support did not hold at 9c,bid down back to below 7c,this thing is going nowhere until post ER.
etraders....
was told "delayed fund" should be received by the company today,and distribution is scheduled on tue/wed.
e-traders.......
did you get pay yet?my have't.
True news....
Thanks.
bottom line........
what is the upside vs the downside and how likely?
my projection:
upside to 45c or 50% up.
downside to 20c or 33% down.
odds of bad ER 80%(before PPP loan/grant of $1.6 million).
my play:
volatility trade: buy@18c,dump at 24c.
crack #4(in a depression yet?).......
"Over 40% Of San Diego Residents Turned To Food Banks Last Month"
"San Diego Food Bank reports the number of people it fed over the last month has nearly doubled to 600,000."
financial survival tools:
shorts have the upper hand: $3.5p short term option play is my favorite.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/over-40-san-diego-residents-turned-food-banks-last-month
PPP bailout should go to distressed people,not miss managed companies.......
"when a company in trouble,it is shareholders problem,and no government should decide winners/loser."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nassim-taleb-says-bailing-out-airlines-misguided-and-morally-unacceptable
ps-FD experience would hurt more materially without a bailout,Sam was given an easy way out again.The company model was expansion thru leaveraged M&A with eroding profit margin(minus in 2020),then it bet the farm on the real estate purchase for future expansion,claiming it had paper profit on the purchase(Sam smart) and generated more debt for cash(Sam's way).I wonder how much is the new warehouse underwater and is this where the bailout money goes plus many other leakages thank to Sam???
ps-again I think Sam is selfish and know I believe he is a character of question:stay away from this time bomb.
next week.......
we should know.if volume is above 100k@10c+ for few days,we got our-self a hottie.
I thought...
small business and small cap are different.PPP loan/grant is earmarked for small business in stress,is it not?
bid 10c,ask 13.5c..........
wooowwww and still don't know sh*t but i'm enjoying the run.
US Will Bar Hedge Funds, Private Equity Firms From Small Business Loan Program....
"publicly traded companies such as Ruth's Chris Steak House must repay loans received this month from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) designed to help struggling small businesses survive the next 8 weeks of the coronavirus pandemic."
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/treasury-posts-guidance-stop-ppp-loans-going-large-companies-after-small-business-owners
question becomes,is ivfh a struggling small business?maybe,does it has the mean to raise capital thru issuance of new shares or convertible notes??less maybe,then what is the odds of returning the PPP loan/grant???