Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Couldn't help myself.
Good morning Tom. Thank you for providing the update.
I have been AIMing twelve "income" stocks.
All have had at least one AIM-directed buy - in addition to the initial investment.
From Jan to mid-May, six of them moved up faster than I expected. And I liquidated them, at the first AIM directed sell.
The remaining six are mostly in their hold zones - although I finally did get a buy yesterday.
I now have six AIM buckets to fill. Adding one/month will get the job done by November.
This Lichello fellow may have just been on to something....
Have a nice weekend.
John
Hi Tom, Hello or Goodbye???
I have recently been in just the opposite position. Waiting patiently for a buy, and then it takes off just before it reaches my target price.
The beauty of AIM. Each position has it's own respective personality.
You say yes (sell), I say no (buy). You say stop, I say go, go, go....
Thank you again Clive for this wonderful presentation.
Interesting that for the 30 years spanning 1984-2014, on a cumulative basis, there was no real advantage in doing monthly reviews. But really only because of 2008.
I suppose that if I had 20-30 years of investing time left, I would opt for the monthly reviews.
Upon sober reflection, it makes more sense for me to just do the annual Dow/Gold rebalance and let AIM manage the stock transactions as they come.
All the best,
really, really, really ... old John
Thanks for presenting this clever idea Clive.
As usual, wonderful analysis and very thought provoking.
I'm wondering if there would be any advantage or disadvantage (other than perhaps the time required) in doing the AIM rebalancing on a monthly, quarterly or semi-annual basis?
John
Thanks for your thoughtful reply karw.
Answered perfectly.
I follow a similar approach to yours in my "income" engines.
I allocate $20,000 per engine - only as a rough initial guide.
I usually start with 20-30% (plus virtual) and let AIM work it's magic.
Somewhat conservative but it works for my most of my portfolio.
I do have 3 stocks that have low beta with no realistic buy or sell opportunities on the horizon.
I suppose that's OK if I just wanted to sit back and collect only dividends.
I would like some degree of volatility capture so your "beta" adjustment appears to be a possible solution. Thanks again for sharing.
All the best,
John
Greetings karw.
Thanks for presenting your "beta" strategy. Quite intriguing.
As a follow-up, do you also adjust your initial AIM program size as well?
For example, beta >1.5 ($10,000), beta =1 ($20,000), beta <0.5 ($30,000).
All the best,
John
Hi Ken
Thanks for the nice flashback. Brought a smile to my face on a day when I needed it.
I was a regular viewer for many years. Marty Zweig was my favorite guest.
He always seemed to be worrying about something. Matched my own personality.
I currently have 10 AIM "Income" engines running. Not much to say other than AIM is doing it's job magnificently. Almost all are right in the middle of their respective holding zones.
Dividends keep rolling in. Patience is truly a virtue.
All the best,
John
Deep Diver.
Very fortunate. Was aiming a couple of Canadian Banks - also listed in NY - mostly for the dividends.
Had some nice buys and then they jumped up from mid-Dec to mid-Feb and hit a sell.
I liquidated my positions with a nice profit (around 13-15% I think).
This allowed me to dump my deep diver at a loss. All in all, came out nicely ahead.
Of course, the story can't end there. Another deep diver has reared its ugly head.
Natural gas - 2X. What a ride down. Voyage down to the bottom of the sea.
Current buy safe at 120%. Still have money to deploy if it goes lower.
Viva Las Vegas!!!
Hold Zone.
Hi Will.
I am probably using the same base spreadsheet except I have adapted it to include "virtual shares" - so the columns will not match up to yours. I take trades as they come and do not wait for the monthly reviews. But you have to be prepared for quicker and perhaps deeper drawdowns. Sometimes this is not easy to do.
I can't remember who shared the following formulas on this forum. But they are what I use:
Next Buy = (Portfolio Control - Min Buy$) / ( Total Shares X (1+ Buy Safe% / 100 ))
Next Sell = (Portfolio Control + Min Sell$) / ( Total Shares X (1 + Sell Safe% / 100 ))
Hopefully somebody with more AIM experience can double-check to see if these are correct.
All the best,
old john
Happy New Year to one and all.
I am so grateful for all of the (AIM) advice that I have received this past year.
May you have a wonderful 2023 ...
with much prosperity, happiness and great health.
My sincere best wishes,
old_john
Season's greetings Toofuzzy.
For me, each "full" sale finishes a position with no residual shares or old ACB to worry about. Neat and tidy. Easy to report. Reduces the chance of a complicated tax audit (in Canada).
All the best,
old_john
AIM reset.
Going back several years (2018), galtinvestor (post 42620) mentioned that he "resets" AIM after each sale.
Does anyone else follow this practice?
For me, this does sound compelling if only to simplify my tax reporting.
Good evening Ray. Thanks for taking the time to locate this reference post for me.
Looks like some excellent information.
Canada - yes, born and raised. Love visiting the U.S. Many relatives in Washington state.
Thanks TooFuzzy. Please excuse my stubbornness. I have this pet mule called "Holy Grail". We sometimes search for the perfect watering hole and forget to notice that the one right in front us will quench our thirst.
Thank you Ray. I checked out the pre-defined scans at Stockcharts. Very useful.
As a side note, my deep diver made the 52-week low lists in New York and Toronto.
Hooray for me!!! Shoulda, woulda, coulda....waited....
Mr. Weber's approach sounds quite similar to what Steve (The Grabber) alluded to with the Williams % R tool. Curious to know what % of available cash Mr. Weber uses for his first buy? Or does he go all in???
And a point of clarification, if you can. Does Jeff advocate incremental AIM sales on the way up? And then, all out (with the remaining shares) at the 52-week high?
Thank you again for posting this contribution. It is very much appreciated.
Hi Adam. Just came across this educational idea at Trading View. The observer thinks that XLE may correct soon. Looking at this long term chart, AIM would have done quite well over the last 20 years to so. Really nice volatility. I'm watching this one with interest. Definitely too early to enter for me.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XLE/P5VEDoAW-XLE-Energy-sector-FAANG-of-2022/
Good morning Tom. Thank you for this reminder about the Permanent Portfolio. I have always been a big fan of Clive's work. Another terrific contributor to this forum.
I actually now remember discovering a similar version several years ago. I had completely forgot about it !!! Primarily because it was a momentum strategy - based upon an entry when an asset's price rose above it's 200-day moving average (I think). It seemed to miss a lot of potential buys at low prices that AIM is good at capturing.
The question remains - when is a good time to start a position? There are no guarantees but I'm thinking of starting new AIM positions only when an asset's price falls below it's 200-day moving average - maybe by 1 or 2 standard deviations? Not sure, I definitely need to do some back testing ...
Thank you Adam. Congratulations on the "energy" sale. Covered calls are a little above above my pay grade right now... I'm being overly cautious with my available cash right now. Have a great weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to you Steve - and to all of our fellow AIMers who have shared their wisdom and knowledge at this forum over the years. May you all have a safe and wonderful holiday weekend.
Thank you for sharing your SLV history using AIM. I am absolutely thrilled to see that you have had such success. Very well deserved.
Hi Toofuzzy. I agree with your statement about chasing dividends.
That's what has gotten me into my current "deep diver" predicament.
Thanks for these great suggestions Toofuzzy.
Looking at the price charts, they all appear to have nice volatility for AIM.
Thanks for this info Tom. Very helpful indeed.
With respect to your 3 piece portfolio, do you just let AIM manage the allocations dynamically?
Just wondering ... if anyone has ever AIMed any of the following:
-gold etf
-silver etf
-crude oil etf
-natural gas etf
-inverse stock etf
I'm thinking about adding a position to my small "Vegas" Portfolio.
The first four look somewhat interesting.
I don't think that I have the stomach for the inverse.
Any thoughts, comments, or experiences would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for your reply Toofuzzy.
I'm going to stick with the AIM plan for now. At least until an "investor day" in December.
The CEO has just purchased over a million dollars of the stock at these depressed levels. The board of directors have each apparently followed suit.
If I'm comfortable with their plan, I'll continue to AIM. If not, I'll harvest the loss for tax purposes and move on to something else.
If interest rates keep rising (which I think they will), debt refinancing could become an issue for other companies too - especially utilities and telecoms.
I have one position that has dropped significantly and has the potential to become a really deep diver.
It has been hurt by rising interest rates and a questionable acquisition. Some of it's maturing debt is coming due in 2023 and will have to be refinanced at higher rates. It has had a good dividend record but some observers think that it is only a matter of time before it gets cut.
It has dropped from a high of 22.50 to a recent low of 9.89 and closed at 10.28 on Friday. 2010 low was 3.40.
My next AIM buy is at 9.48. I will be following the plan as I believe the longer term prospects for this company are good.
Fortunately, some of my other positions have performed much better and are offsetting some of this downturn:
Lichello had a PLAN.
I had been using a full-service broker who I relied upon to provide buying opportunities. He had a brilliant economic mind and was very well educated. But in terms of selling at a profit or buying more when a stock was down - he was either clueless or perhaps, somewhat deceptive.
I had read many "investing" books prior to discovering AIM. This was the only book that provided a specific, unemotional roadmap. I should correct myself as there was another titled "The Money Spinner". Similar to AIM.
The initial drawback for me was the wide "holding zone". In retrospect, this is in fact is an important feature.
I put stock investing on the shelf when I bought a rental property after in 1987 crash. I did OK but would have done much better had I Aimed a portfolio of good quality stocks.
Today, I'm Aiming 10 stocks with a single cash reserve. I'm on my way...
Greetings Steve,
Thanks for taking the time to explain your use of GTC orders.
I have checked with my broker and they permit a standing order for 90 calendar days.
Using them for sell orders will work perfectly in my current situation.
Thanks also for LD-AIM worksheet that you created and released.
Wonderful contribution to the AIM community. Very much appreciated.
Best wishes,
Old John
Thank you Toofuzzy.
I am definitely leaning towards using this LD_AIM model.
I think that it provides a good balance between being overly
aggressive and staying on the sidelines.
Best wishes,
Old John
Good morning Tom. Thanks for presenting this fine example of what AIM can do. I have a bond maturing in December and will probably transition into a similar type of holding at that time.
You mentioned your cash ceiling target is 20%. Does this mean that you over ride what V-Wave is indicating? To clarify my question, if you were to have started this position in Sept. 2019, would you have used V-Wave or the 20% number?
Hope that you are having a nice weekend.
Take care,
John
Hi Jon. Is that short term (18 months) value for individual stocks correct?
3% cash seems awfully aggressive!!! The 38% level for a 3-5 year time horizon is more my speed.
I read the "riot act" to my purchasing dept. this past week and they responded with several buys. No days off for them right now. The distribution center on the other hand looks to be quiet for the next while. No layoffs yet. Probably move some of the staff into the buying office to help out with the mountain of paperwork.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Old John
Greetings karw. Thanks for taking the time to tell us how you manage your cash with AIM. I'm interested in your approach using AIM-zero with individual stocks. May I ask how you set up your virtual machine? Size, safe settings, min. buy/sell etc.
I have set up a couple of (virtual) engines using actual AIM price targets. But I have substituted the following cash amounts for the first 5 real purchases: 1500, 1750, 2000, 2250, 2500. Total planned purchases = 10,000 (50% of 20,000).
After (hopefully) 5 buys, I plan to switch to standard AIM and use V-wave as a guide from then on. Some might say that I am being overly cautious. At the end of day, we all have to be able to sleep at night with our decisions.
As Mr. Lichello put it so eloquently, so many years ago: "May you have all that you need, And all that you desire, And the wisdom to know the difference."
Old John
Thank you Toofuzzy for offering up these great suggestions.
$20,000 to start an AIM engine makes a lot of sense. In your view, will a $50,000 or even a $100,000 engine operate in a similar manner to a $20,000 one?
I have looked at LD_AIM in the past and I am now inspired to have a sober, second look.
I think the mistake that I was making was concentrating too much on the shorter term.
I was adjusting too many settings to get the perfect exit. Spaghetti AIM.
Together with Tom's advice on the merits of long-term investing, your ideas are indeed valuable and very much appreciated.
Continued success,
Old John
Hi Jon
Your point is well taken. I just completed a buy transaction at a price below my target. Congratulations to me!!! Except the price has kept falling!!! Outsmarted myself again. Grin and bear it and wait for the next signal :)))
Thanks for providing the weekly cash % levels. They are very much appreciated.
Really, really Old John
Hi Tom, thanks for this great explanation.
I dug out my old, tattered copy of the book and discovered the root of my confusion. Mr. L mentioned that it is a "synchrovest" position that is closed after a 100% profit. I suppose that this in theory, could also be applied to an "aim" program. But I do question the benefit of doing so.
Really Old John
Greetings aimers. No recent buys or sells for me. I'm hoping that some of my targets will be hit next week. Still have a fair bit of cash on the sidelines.
Out of curiosity, could somebody please remind me what Mr. Lichello said about ending a particular position. Or do you just keep aiming forever???
"You got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away, And know when to run."
Good morning Toofuzzy. Thank you for this suggestion. I currently have a "cash" account but should be able to go back to "margin" without much difficulty.
I did have a "margin" account when I was working with a full-line broker - many years ago. He convinced me to go into a number of wild and convoluted strategies that had my head spinning at the time. These positions were all designed to break even - at the very worst. Funny, after a number of margin calls, I realized that there was no free lunch.
Good morning Tom. I haven't used GTC limit orders yet. Probably something that I should seriously consider. Set and forget.
After each buy, I do need to sell units of a mutual fund to pay for the purchase. My broker will not do this automatically. I'm a little concerned that I might not realize that a buy has occurred and may miss a settlement date. I'm guessing that there must be some sort of alert system in place that I'm not aware of.
As well, I would probably miss the adrenaline rush of watching the price close in on my target. Thank goodness that I have zero interest in ever going to a casino or betting establishment.
Thanks Tom and Jon for your kind and thoughtful replies. I'm fortunate that I have a relatively large cash reserve for this particular AIM program. I'm getting ready to "buy from the scared" - even though I have already done it twice (LOL). Thanks for the reminder about the self-adjusting nature of AIM. A few pennies either way wouldn't really make much of a difference over several transactions. I suppose it might come down to one's personality type. Being stubborn to a fault, I'll probably continue to stick with the exact calculated prices going forward.
All the best,
John