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>>GTC has always had one big problem...That is they have always been underfunded.<<
Hi Jesse, no bitterness here on GTC price etc. I have always known this stock to be a risk. I refer to GTC spending in 2nd half '08 as an example of what I wrote. Spending like this without resources kind of begs my commentary. Regards.
>>not to support the company leadership in this time nauseating crisis<<
"Nauseating crisis" indeed!. Check back when the masses no longer have more than one communication device each, cars that skim along better than ever before in history and more than one of them too, a welfare safety net that exceeds many a hard worked wage.
GTC's problems are wholly self inflicted. GTC has itself to blame for each and every failure and management is responsible. The science didn't let them down, nor the economy. What did let us down is a malaise that afflicts many, many executives today; a brain disease that tells them that they don't really have to answer to shareholders. It tells them that it is really more important to advance the science and provide jobs and salaries and run companies according to the standard academic template they were taught at the ivy league colleges than to actually achieve goals with available resources.
I almost wish for a real crisis so that folks could understand what a fabulous economy we have even now, and one that requires no bailout or government management. I fear for this country when the government runs things it shouldn't. Uncle Sam has a horrible legacy in this regard. Just look at our public schools and the welfare state. Anyone can see the massive recipients of social security disability who are running around in comparative health just scamming the hell out of the system. And for the obsene cost of 8-12 thousand dollars each our kids get what, a 40% chance that they won't even be able to graduate high school? And if they do graduate, they may not even be able to read or multiply? Yeah, let's let these bureaucrats run the banks and the mortgages and the health care and everything else!
>>1. FDA approval or near-approval of ATryn during 1H09, followed by a buyout/merger at a substantially better valuation than the current share price<<
Dew, I assume you have the odds at >>50% for #1 happening or you would have sold. REgards.
"milimolar", LOL, How to define a mole of GTC? Help Avagadro! Help anyone! There are no constants here except change and dilution.
From RMF:
"4. An ATryn partnership in Japan. Japan has substantial sales of plasma-derived antithrombin, including an approved indication for DIC/sepsis. These plasma-derived sales represent low-hanging fruit for eventual conversion to ATryn. At least one Japanese clinical study will be needed to obtain marketing approval. Dr. Cox has said that a deal is more likely in 2009 than in 2008."
Re. P.D. antithrombin in Japan, how can this be approved unless some validation has occurred? And if validation at some meaningful level, should this make us feel more comfortable with eventual FDA trials? Thanks.
OT: A few years ago the energy business underwent a similar meltdown (post Enron) and I had a list of 15 or 20 companies that were struggling to say the least. Assets were flooding the market and Moody's was busier than they are today downgrading compaies debt and creating a similar spiral. These companies got through it and the banks will too. We didn't bail the energy industry out and we shouldn't bail the banks out, come recession, depression, or even financial collapse (which will not happen because there are too many greedy (in a positive sense) people out there willing to step in). It will go to those who have managed their affairs wisely and have cash to go out and secure these properties. I, myself have purchased two beautiful homes this year that were foreclosed on and sold one for a profit and will be renting the second one. There are those out there who will catch the fall at the appropriate point. Feds, get out of the way!
I can't help but wonder if Ovation's participation has made a difference in the timing here. At any rate, we not only get the priority review but it comes early as well. I think this indicates a 6 month time frame, or Q1 '09 decision.
Sad that the "life platform" can be equated to "extreme". Most Americans agree with most of the life platform.
I think you may be referring to the small group of extremists who kill legislation most of us want by placing unpalatable provisions in it.
These are the same "extremists" we would contend with regarding trans genetics. They "need" to keep the bones of contention alive and well for political advantage.
These "extremists" are active on both sides of the aisle. Lawmakers could have taken a good share of the issue of abortion off the table a few years ago when they had the opportunity.
PS: Trying out Google's "Chrome" for the first time on this post. So far, so good.
Flo - I believe "Bear one another's burdens" still applies in cyberland - praying for you and yours and hoping for better days - Regards.
I think one of the key elements to understanding the current MC for GTC is the market sentiment towards biotechs that are losing money, even those who have enough capital to last for more than a year. Extremely out of favor, and in a meltdown not unlike the dotcoms at the turn of the century, we are caught in a downdraft.
"IMHO a merger or stock swap is in the 60% range and Dew may be including that possibilty in his definition of a buyout"
Either of the above "in some style" would be included in the overall chances given I would think.
"but as a "soothsayer" his record is no better than any of the rest of ours."
My point was that Dew was not "soothsaying"; on the contrary, his exquisite command of odds and statistics make me view his estimate as something more than a guess.
>>small chance of buyout, but do not expect that to happen with the current partners different interests<<
You read DD's >>60% estimate for buyout and you make this claim without qualification? DD's command of statistics and odds is pretty much without peer on this board, yet you make your wildly differing claim...
GTC's increased spending for 2nd half '08 (22 million) is a significant amount to burn, almost double the amount in the treasury, and could be an evidence that a significant deal is in the making. Otherwise IMO it would represent too big a leap of faith and could be considered irresponsible.
I think most would consider a responsible strategy to be to hold the line on spending and make the 22 million receipts for 2nd half last at least until '09 which just has to have been doable.
No doubt GTC has done a great job of developing the company except in the one area of staying ahead of the curve on incremental financing IMO. Even to this day Cox is continuing his habit of moving ahead with programs just one step ahead of securing the proper funding. It is a common mistake but in one's personal life reality checks rather quickly, whereas in public corporations nowadays reality never seems to bite.
The "Micawber Principle" may apply.
Although the charachter of Wilkins Micawber doesn't fit Cox very well, other than he is English, in many ways I feel like Emma.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilkins_Micawber
"The character of Wilkins Micawber has given rise to the English noun "Micawber" and the adjective "Micawberish". The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines a Micawber as "one who is poor but lives in optimistic expectation of better fortune"[1]."
I prefer a more humble and less presumptuous CEO. I resent Cox's attitude (my interpretation) that GTC will be successful but share price be damned. It is obvious to me that GTC is spending 22M this half yr. not to increase share price but to increase the probability that GTC will continue in some form. They had better sell this company or explain clearly where the next 22M is coming from. Why investors allow this kind of irresponsible spending is beyond me. This company has been underfunded (or overspent) from the start.
Yes, but "chump change" was capable of kicking the shit out GTC's market cap, forcing us off the national and a R/S etc, etc.
The Ovation deal and the submission will play 2nd fiddle to the cash flow headline IMO. People will begin to recognize a lowered annual cash burn going forward and real revenue possibilities within a few short years.
Possibly the most significant price driver in many quarters, may be YoY cash burn Q2'07 to Q2'08 figures. Could be cash flow positive for Q2'07. IMO price should rise into the call. Not saying this to hype as I am not buying into it.
Top revenue producer is sale of product to partners, next partnerships, dillutive financing, and last Atryn royalties.
October trial results also possible driver.
Yearly cash burn is now trending down and should (with proper management) continue to do so. Cash raising should trend toward easier assuming October results are positive. Share price could get uglier or stay ugly for some time but this time frame should constitute a multiyear low that will hold going forward IMO.
"we usually think alike. You are much more precise in your analysis than I am, but we usually come to the same conclusions for similar reasons."
You wish! That is the difinitive "backhanded complement".
Thank you very much.
Awesome DD. Rustyboy, any current thoughts on GTC investment?
Prescient post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29794528
GTC's revenue picture:
1) Selling proteins to partners
2) Upfront payments for partnerships
3) Milestone payments from partners
4) Royalties from sales of approved drugs worldwide
5) Licensing agreements
6) Public financing (funny that this one segment controls share price so dramatically)
Dew, is your disappointment limited to the amount to be received in 2008? I note the funding of clinical expenses vis. AD ind and bearing of all sales and marketing expense as well as the royalties that I assume are above and beyond the OA scope of this deal.
Powerful lobbies can wrongly influence lawmakers. Strict term limits and modest compensation could facilitate a return to statesmanship IMO.
I thought this excerpt plays well to GTC's story:
"It takes $1.2 billion to develop an average biologic, and another $250-$450 million to construct the facilities necessary to produce it."
We have the whole thing up for sale at about 50 million market cap right now! (plus an approved drug about to be FDA approved)
We badly need regulatory reform. I am so tired of government trying to protect me from me!
On FOBs, (Apologies if already posted)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/a_primer_for_followon_biologic.html
LRG, I agree that there is far too little science in both "religion" and "evolution". I think a little humility and respect would go a long way in both camps.
Well said. I trust that much of this risk has been assessed by management and a mentoring program has been undertaken.
OT: About half way through this clip is an interesting "lesson" vis. the sound coloration possible with the guitar. Enjoy.
I don't know if 10% is a good number or not. I think it all depends on the quality of the 15 in R&D. Overall I think one has to conclude that GTC scientists are among the most productive anywhere. I think the Atryn franchise is being managed well and to think the program is being engineered by so few! I think I like that.
Yes, they have a consistent level of employees at full capacity, and they intend to pursue the programs they have for the next few quarters using revenues, royalties, partnerships etc and the balance they will go to the market for. There are competing parties who will buy shares and we will continue in this mode until we get approval for the next big ind ... or not.
I agree Cro, this is just sell bio-tech earnings regardless emotion. Market cap of 60 million, the facility is worth more than that and Atryn HD is worth that too IMO. The programs are advancing, the partners we have, LEO, LFB, Merrimack, Pharmathene, these are all vested in GTC success and selling here is just not warranted. I know it sounds dumb, but I believe we will go over $1 this quarter without a R/S
This drop after earnings is roughly 10 million dollars market cap. Percentage is large, but market cap is key. When you have a penny stock like this, it fluxuates a lot.
I see no "bad news" here today. Great value and face it, we are all down here, but that doesn't mean there is no value.
My intuition says we will trend over $1 per share in the next 3-6 months.
Suggests improved interest in partnering.
Sorry for error, should have read:
"As of the end of the first quarter the company had .86/share, in cash. Including the 3 million due about a year from now from Ocimum(13 months) they had .97/share, and market cap is roughly 33% of that."
Earnings Thursday before market, not tomorrow
As of the end of the first quarter the company had .86/share, roughly 62% of market cap in cash. Including the 3 million due about a year from now from Ocimum(13 months) they had .97/share, roughly 66% of market cap in cash.
Something to keep in mind:
"we hold an equity investment in one company (Xceed Molecular, formerly MetriGenix) with a remaining book value of $3.0 million as of December 31, 2007"
Keep in mind that book value is is just that.
I am certainly not saying this is a buy, although I own shares at .45 average, down over 25% now.
I think Miller wanted to liquidate or sell the company but I cannot be certain. His .72 shares look attractive now. The threat with him was that he could have put up a new slate for the BOD with his ownership of 15% and that could have changed the course of the company, something that the BOD was unanimously against.
thanks, Jesse
Prior post should reference Kamada’s inhaled AAT program.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27079832
"Oddly, this PR does not say that a BLA will be submitted forthwith for the hereditary deficiency indication"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28121695
Perhaps, in light of the recent trouble with inhaled insulin, this program will be shelved as well.