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I liquidated my position in TCON on the news. I don't see a path forward for TCON that is good for current shareholders. I will monitor TCON going forward from the sidelines.
I was very happy to see that Lux is still alive. I don't think Aptose has the resources to develop it at this time. It's a shame. They really squandered this opportunity. In any event it is news that will keep my interest in Aptose alive. I haven't listened to the cc yet. They still have a huge $ problem and I think Hanmi is calling the shots.
I still hold a speculative position in TCON. I am expecting binary news before EOM. Out of 46 pts. they had 4 responses by BICR and 7 by Investigator review. It is right on the edge of meeting the target. If met I see $1+ immediately, it not perhaps 10 cents immediately. If you want to discuss, let's do so on the Ihub TCON board.
I am watching a painful demise here for APTO.
Unfortunately, I believe we have already seen a Hanmi takeover. They are just interested in TUS.
Thanks for the response. I agree 1535 looks promising. I plan to follow it closely. I am also interested in their RAF inhibitor (4933). I follow VSTM very closely. They are focused on RAS pathway inhibitors. Both VSTM and IKNA have RAF/MEK clamps in trials. VSTM is in the lead. It will be interesting to see how BDTX positions 4933 in the context of current RAF inhibitors and these new clamps.
Thanks for the link. Interesting. What's your current opinion of BDTX? TIA.
I have been rotating from APTO primarily into VINC over the past month. Also holding VSTM and ONCT.
Hello All. I have not posted here in a while but have continued to follow the discussions. As always, thank you Decaf for the information you share.
After serious deliberation I decided it was time to begin liquidating my APTO shares. I have been selling for the past month. There is no ONE reason. It is a cumulation of factors. I feel that Rice has lost his credibility and APTO will struggle for the foreseeable future. I will continue to monitor and may buy back shares at a later date.
On to greener pasteurs.
I'm still here and watching. The elephant in the room is financing.
APTO hopes to develop TUSP for front line AML (in triplet combination). They think it may be approvable for front line FLT3 positive AND negative patients. They also believe that if it is as effective as they hope it could be used in BOTH fit and unfit AML patients. i.e. virtually every AML patient could be treated frontline with the triple combination of HMA:VEN:TUSP. In addition, TUSP is going to be tested with VEN for MDS patient. APTO believes this makes TUSP a BIG PHARMA class molecule. i.e. easily $1B+ market. That may take seven + years. BUT! I do not think APTO will ever take it to that level without major BIG PHARMA involvement.
Right now the focus is on proving that TUSP is this type of drug and courting BIG PHARMA interest. I think BP will become a major factor within TWO to THREE years.
It could be both. A response at 200mg and an out licensing deal. I think they want to out-license for non-cancer indications. I think plasma levels are already high enough for non-cancer indication. I really would like them to look at lux in combination with Ven at 300mg or higher for AML or B-cell cancers. I think one of their greatest mistakes is trying to find monotherapy efficacy for both Lux and Tusp. They finally are on the right track with TUSP. Do they extend that to Lux? Hopefully. Also, at some point I think LUX, TUSP, VEN combination could yield very interesting data.
Ven dramatically lowers the IC50 of Lux in B-cell cancers in vitro. APTO knows this from Druker's work with plasma samples. USE IT!
APTO has reached a major turning point. Stay tuned.
There are numerous examples of drug A being necessary but not sufficient, and drug B being necessary but not sufficient to achieve an efficacy goal. That DOES NOT rule out the possibility that TUSP + VEN are effective as a combination. You are denying the whole concept of synergy.
I currently hold share in Verastem. Verastem is testing TWO unapproved drugs in combination for LGSOC. Neither drug is effective alone for this indication. Together they are so effective that the drugs have FDA "breakthrough" status. Together they have an ORR of 45% in a population that SOC ORR is around 20%.
I hope they deep six the monotherapy effort and apply all resources on the combination(s).
This is why I keep harping on combinations. Forget the monotherapy. It's a mistake, except possibly in maintenance.
I am just happy that they are finally figuring this out. Way past due. What irks me is that if they had run Lux in combinations I think we would have a totally different narrative now. Is what it is.
I finally see some real hope here.
I agree APTO has put itself into a critical financial situation. That said they FINALLY have figured out that the key is combinations, especially with venetoclax. It looks like they now understand that that is the critical path forward. I am confident that as the dublet data evolves they will be reporting value driving data. This is what I have been waiting for (them to get into combinations). My plan is to slowly add shares over the next six months if things evolve as I expect.
I was happy to hear that they are now dosing Lux at 200 mg. That's a big jump from 50 mg. I believe that the current Lux plasma levels are high enough to see significant clinical activity IF they ever figure out to use LUX in combination with Venetoclax. They promised an update on Lux within several weeks. Could we get a surprise? Cross your fingers.
In summary. I think APTO is FINALLY on the right track. We jus need to navigate the financial crunch.
I do expect some partnership announcement(s) within the next six months.
Combinations!! Sooner or later they will catch on.
Still here. Not much to talk about right now.
I sense a little sarcasm. Do you think “big pharma” cares about single agent tusp? Not! They care about combination indications. I think that is what they told Rice, I don’t expect Aptose to ever market tusp. If combinations show the efficacy I hope for and expect there will be a buyout in 2 to 3 years. IMO. We should know next year if the combos work.
Same is true with lux. I think 1 microM plasma levels of Lux is sufficient for combinations with ven and other agents. Aptose needs to stop messing around. Try one more dose of lux and run with it in combinations.
This is what I have been harping about. The combinations are the key. Forget about single arm. It’s a waste of time. What we need to see is strong tusp/ven data. That will be the breakthrough. Just look at how fast tusp/ven is enrolling.
BTW: same is true for lux.
Combinations!!!!
Where are the lawsuits?
They knew about the limited bioavailability from the beginning. They had strong pre-clinical data. They did not have G-3 available. They had reasonable expectations that they could find an effective G-1 oral dose. Got very close. My peeve is that they did not go with combinations at the beginning. Is what it is.
We are in different situation now.
COMBINATIONS
They need to establish an RP2D for lux.
I don’t really care about mono therapy. I see it as a distraction. We need to get combination data. I don’t expect 100% in second line, but it would be nice. Will be happy if stock price just holds current level (split adjusted) until ASH.
DOR is more important than ORR in combinations. IMO
Synthetic lethality is the key.
I think they are slow walking lux. Focus is on tusp. Better have some good data to report.
Next week it should run strong.
You would think.
Agree. Dilution is a given at this point. Question is how much. We really need combination data.
That’s fair. We need strong data reveals to mitigate pending dilution. Next six months are critical.
15 to 1 stock split approved..
Item 3. 30-50 million. Also 30-50 million each for tp53 and Ras. Big money is in combinations.
One of the key drivers of resistance to Gilteritinib is Ras. Both Lux and Tusp appear to be effective against Ras. This stuff leads to potential DOR benefit. Huge value.
We know from Drukers data that Lux and Ven are synergistic.
Less ven. Less toxicity.
Combination! It is the key. That’s why I have been screaming for data.
Combination! It is the key. That’s why I have been screaming for data.
So all of a sudden Tuspetinib doesn’t work. I got no sense of that from the call. It’s too soon. You are guessing on the numbers and the timing of the scans. Give it some more time before you panick.
I am much more interested in the combination data.
So all of a sudden Tuspetinib doesn’t work. I got no sense of that from the call. It’s too soon. You are guessing on the numbers and the timing of the scans. Give it some more time before you panick.
I am much more interested in the combination data.
Based on an anticipated ORR of 15-20% what is the probability that the first patient would be a first month responder? It’s too early.
It’s not about revenue.
TP53 rules.