If someone has a scientific approach to trading I'm all ears, but the charting theories I have seen all seem like so much voodoo, with people looking back on errors to say in retrospect "ahh, the shoulder was really THERE!" <<<<

there are way to many variables to make it "scientific" for the average individual non-pro trader. Professionals can be just as wrong as anybody and especially at major turning points.

<<<How you doin? -g-<<

can't complain,

making big bucks and getting laid by beautifool women,

(oh i forgot, that was last nights dream)

ho ho ho

Hi LG, haven't posted in a while, noticed some seminal sentiment indicators about a week or so ago, but not in the posting frame of mind lately, the stock slide caused a front page indicator on the la times, plus a first story on the nightly news, definitely a buy indicator at least st.

I can't post on SI now, can you get a message to lucretnutz and mitxman, that they really sux.

Collateral, tom cruze, jamie fox

worth a cruze, some dynamic action, mind stimulation, a few bust up laffs, and the good guy gets the girl.

tom cruise in gray hair, how can you go wrong -g-

augieboo: BE HEALED....<<<

lg, the markets are not a kind place,

a lot of people come and go, including me & augie,

it happens.

and emma in leather will pale in comparison to halle in leather...<<<<

well maybe if you collapse time, but emma peel in leather in the 60's was to die for..., there was no hot chick kicking butt at the time, most females were stepford wives, emma peel was the predecessor for wonder woman, charlie's angels, and today's lara croft, sidney bristow,

emma peel (diana rigg) was an archetypal character for current popular culture, much like lucille ball in comedy.

who's Emma Peel?
<<<<

the leather clad girl of 60's tv, that most of us kids at the time violated ourselves too -ggg-

I've seen it already. She's HOT! Not a bad movie for a teen chick flick. Certainly a lot nicer than Mean Girls which will probably make twice as much money.
BTW, I gave it 2 1/2 pickles.<<<<<

derfie, she is hot, and the only reason for seeing this movie (not a bad reason JG is to die for -g-), but i'm ashamed of you, this movie was no more than a pickle and a quarter -g-

stoopid premise, and plenty of bad acting.

I also saw Alamo, this movie is much better quality, too long though, and did present some of the characters a little to cartoonish, especially the mexican heneral'

it didn't get much box office - doesn't have a broad appeal, but it's a worth see, especially for a little history lesson, or at least this writer's vers of history. 2.75 wrinkled and aged pickles

i missed kill bill vs 1 in theatres,

but i rented it a week ago, OK, the martial arts was great, uma is a hot babe with handjabi pure titanium steel,

already i'm in there -g-

but kill bill 1 wasn't all that ground breaking, but it sucks you in like a soap opera, and maybe that is it.

kill bill 2 brings in more of daryl hannah, david carradine, and michael madsen, which are key characters in this drama,

all great characters.

there is an interplay of black and white cinema,

this flick is one part felini, one part spaghetti western, one part kung fu, and one part tarantino (f'him)

it works for sum, but I can't give this the glowing review others have given it, it's just good, it's not great, imo

this film was too much about style and not about substance.

<<<<Clinton could've lobbed more Tomahawks at Afghanistan, true, but to really do the job he would've had to invade Afghanistan. Neither Congress nor the country would've gone along with that then><<<<<

Clinton was riding the tide of the fall of communism, end of a major war (cold war), the rise of capitalism, and the so-called "new economy"

the political and economic environment in the 90's was the best of all worlds, it doesn't get much better than that.

Elmer Fudd could as pres of the U.S. could have acheived similar approval ratings -g-, and Monica would have invited him to mcDonald's and they would have been in pig heaven -g-

Why would he upset the applecart,

there was no preventing 9/11, it was a crafted by professionals with a purpose, while the opposition was sleeping, something like this was crafted by the allies, (not really the world was in war, but we don't have another good analogy in the last century for 9/11) in the invasion of Normandy Beach in WWII, or really by the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

While we should palabre about the motives, actions, etc. of the Bush administration after the fact,

no administration has had to deal with these circumstances since hoover - FDR,

a recession - falling stock market, - war

thanks, dood

while I can not predict accurate dow or nas on a certain day like some of these fortune cookie predictors,

I have watched the market for years and understand non-confirms, lt trends, support and resistance.

trend changes are the hard part, mostly you don't believe them, until it's too late, and you've been ate by the market velicorapter.

being early in a trend change is the key to making money, being ahead of the crowd, which is no easy task.

there are a lot easier ways to make money.

There comes a time when it becomes clear that we're in a mark-down phase<<<<

Hi Lee,

on an LT (200dma) we are definitely not in a mark down phase, on an IT basis (50dma), we may be in the beginning of a mark down phase based on the leadership group - techs,

the nasdaq usually non-confirms tops and bottoms (or retests) in the Industrials.


We have some sentiment elements that could comprise a top, in my aforementioned post, however these kind of sentiment readings most of the time comprise the initial top and usually there is a retest or a resumption of the previous trend.

contrary opinion only works when the crowd is wrong, and the crowd can be right for extended periods.

An uptick in earnings warnings during this period would send the market down, there is a lot of overhead supply, based on mutual fund inflows.

sentiment may be changing trend which has been uptrending since early fall.



the financials are really overbought, it just doesn't get much better than this.

2003 was the worst year in a while for many technical analysts and I figured out why<<<<

did you figure out that the many ta's that had a bad year were caught up in the trend on the last three years, or perma-bears, who didn't or couldn't or didn't want to recognize all the elements of a base and a trend change that took place during summer 2002 thru march 2003.

I see you have made some grandiose predictions, bullish predictions,

technical analysis cannot predict the future - nor can you or anybody else - predictions are just pissing in the wind, useless grandstanding and ego self-massaging.

hopefully you can use technical analysis to identify trends and hopefully identify trend changes early before most of the crowd catches on.

now that you have made some grandiose bull predictions, and we've had huge mutual fund inflows in january, and a very low equity p/c ratio in january, it might be time to consider the bear case,

but only consider, because bull markets are like weeds, they are hard to take out, and they grow back quickly.

What I've been puzzling about is why Apple hasn't grown as much as we'd like. <<<

aapl's market share isn't so bad when you compare it to other mass consumer markets, there just is no other model in the consumer markets that matches the personal computer market . . .

in which a couple of companies monopolize the market . . .

standards have been adopted a couple of decades ago . . .

aapl has to always be 3 steps ahead to stay in the game.

I loved "Miracle".

Kurt Russell did one of his best acting jobs in that movie and the story was great.<<<

without a doubt this is Kurt Russell's finest work, it's way to early in the year, but this looks like an award winning portrayal, by a long-time journeyman actor.

They are managing the global economy with skill and running the US economy and the US workers into the shoals.

Ultimately, sooner or later we will crash because of it.<<<

We will crash has been the consensus of these boards since the bottom of 2002, is that still the consensus on this thread, i missed the last 80,000 posts?

These boards are pure entertainment, i hope nobody is putting their hard earned $ on some bullshit advice given here.

"Miracle"

This movie attempts (and does) re-capture one of the greatest moments in sports in the last century and the story of the 7 months leading up to it, kurt russell brings it to a new level and becomes Herb Brooks.

This movie is a lot of fun for sports fans of the late 70's, and while the movie does set at back drop of the social, economic and political climate, I think it will be hard for 20-30 somethings to understand the significance of what happened.

From what I could tell they used some of Al Michael's original TV commentary, which was just as outstanding as the event, and they choreographed the US-Russia game to accurately portray the goals and timing, even with Eruzione's high stepping dance after his go ahead goal, all of the players were hockey players that were brought in to act, not vice-versa, some very talented kids.

3.5 pickles

Us Mac people shouldn't spend one minute worrying about worms and viruses. This is a tax that Window's users have to pay. <<<

I no longer check e-mail with my windows system, had to reformat my drive after the last blaster worm,

i got some suspect emails this week on mac mail that looked like virus scams, just deleted them and smiled, I know my windows competitors are burning the midnight oil trying to fix the next worm.

Does OSX have the equivalent of XP's "system restore" by any chance?>>

there is carbon copy cloner by bombich software, which duplicates exactly your whole system, software and files.

with the cheap storage available, everybody should have at least one regular clone, and more sensitive data should have a few clones.

Trump actually gives some great business tips if these kids are listening. I make sure my kids watch and I reiterate as they go<<<<

This show should be requisite view in Business 101 class.

I think Burnett, hit upon a magic potion for TV watchers with survivor,

that survival in the jungle, interpersonal dynamics, much like in the business world, and exotic escape eye candy, would be the ticket to seduce TV watchers, and it did, but it's not really, reality tv . . .

but, now "the apprentice" brings it, new york city is the ultimate jungle.

I know some here are into reality TV,

The Apprentice with the Donald,

is just riveting TV, it's produced by the guy that started Survivor, and you can see some of the same story and visual riffs.

but . . .

while survivor was something of a 'new show - new genre' and innovation in 2000, it's now old hat,

but "the apprentice" is hot topic and something that a lot of people can relate to, something they have to deal with in their daily life.

Jobless Count Skips Millions....
There are also the 1.5 million people who want a job but didn't look for one in the last month. Nearly a third of this group say they stopped the search because they were too depressed about the prospect of finding anything. Officially termed "discouraged," their number has surged 20% in a year.<<<<

We have had the largest economic contraction (as described by the stock market) since 1973-4, or since 1929,

there will never be full employment, we just have to thank our lucky stars that while we had a big contraction in the tech industry, other industries and housing took up the slack, and that the press which was basing our whole economy on tech in 2000, was wrong, tech is only a small part of the economy.

and that the stock market is only a very loose barometer of what is happening on main street, some times accurate, most times a separate reality.

deuce..see this

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1988994

that 4 yr sequence from 1966 not prior to that <<<<

ya, i saw that, but that begs the question, if da chef knows so much about 4 year cycles, why was he bullish at the crest of the peak and all the way to the trough of the peak, there is no doubt, at least there should be no doubt to any regular market watchers that the bear market ended in 2002 and we are in a bull market now, if we make it past 10-04 without a significant downturn, we may be back in a right-hand translating 4 year cycle super-bull.

one thing i think is important is that people that read these message boards or search for financial advisors, is that there are no easy answers, no guru's that can guide you through every market wiggle, even though a lot present themselves as just that.

i knew nobody would appeciate my eloquent review of 'paycheck' -g-

*

Posted by: da_cheif
In reply to: None Date:12/22/2003 5:32:57 PM
Post #of 16328


shades of december 91...rock on.....14 months after the oct 1990 4 year cycle low....<<<<

dood, i hope you aren't a bragging idiot, about the bullish case,

because in october 2000 you declared a major low, and several weeks before that and every week until 2002 low, you were incessantly bullish during the worst bear market of the last 30 years, did you finally turn bearish like everybody else in the summer of 2002, i don't think you posted much then, which is information in itself.

you can predict the future as good as any of my pea leaves =g=

So, augie, you or anyone got an opinion on where this 1900-2000 coil on nasdaq is gonna resolve, up or down, or have a fake break up or down and turn the other way.

so far there no hints of negativo economics (unless your a permanent bear and can't see even a glass with a few drops in the bottom -g-) or excessive bullishness from the p/c or rydex ratios, that would indicate some kind of so=called secondary bubble that the prema-pessmistas are banking on.

not the technical details.

. . . . . . but the romantic in me<<<<<<<
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I agree, the ending was not believable, but i don't think it takes away from the beauty of the rest of the movie, maybe this aspect kept it out of the golden globes, I don't know.

The ending didn't bother me too much at the time - now that f-d brings it up I can see why some would be put off by it, i mean this is hollywood, the good guy (almost) always lives and gets the girl.

That's what most people want and expect.

"The Last Samurai"

a lot better than I expected, this movie may be mistaken for an action movie, the character development and the story, was an exquisite canvas,

this movie and Seabiscuit rank among my top picks for movie of the year, of the films i've seen this year (and i know i have missed a few good ones.)

might we consider the TA posters as racing stables, each seeking to develop a Seabiscuit? <<<<

Yep, i think so, i've had my seabiscuits, and my nags.

Developing a consistently winning strategy, is tough, and requires disciplines that goes beyond
daily market watching. IMO

db: I am surprised that you did not comment on the QQQ Calista Flockhart cups produced with last Friday's price action...vbg

...XENA warrior princess forces, have kept my time bottled...

i can't follow the markets on a daily basis.

db: I suppose it was coincidence that MSFT rolled over a little under its long-term FRL in Sept...(once again only two anchor points, but precisely anchored at two important pivot points.)<<<<<

it could have been coincidence, when trendlines work they work, when they don't they don't, seasonal trends work at lot of the time, and then they don't, people that followed seasonal tendencies in the last year got killed, there is nothing in technical analysis that can predict the future.

therefore any practitioners cannot by default be pompous or arrogant about it's practices, because if you could count on something on a daily basis you got a business,

but the market changes faces daily, weekly, monthly.

it becomes a horse race.

I went to see Bad Santa yesterday.....I found this movie very funny if sick and twisted is what you seek! <<<<


for the twisted this is a 4 pickle movie, the girl didn't need to be nekid, her love making santa chant was worth at least one pickle, no deducktions here.

santa is not the only one who pissed his pants during this movie -g-, this movie was fricken hilarious.

leave the kids at home, or have them visit ELF at your multi=plex.

However, drawing trend lines incorrectly is like throwing a pass without a spiral. Sure, sometimes a tumbling football reaches it intended receiver, but most would be better served learning how to throw a spiral.

No fair bringing up Y A Tittle...gg<<<<

The only reason i'm giving you a hard time LG, (besides it's a little fun to stir it up -g-) is that drawing trendlines, spec'ing chart patterns, looking at sentiment, volume trends, price trends, divergences, etc.

is really akin to making book on horse races, now there are a few great sheet readers and the rest that make the house rich.

the huge amount of variables involved market movements are not easily tamed by statistical analysis of any kind, and as your lifesaver, says, to keep your breath minty fresh be sure and leave a stop loss -g-

There is a lot of statistical validity to a bullish or bearish channel with lots of points touching, but there is also a lot of non-engineered ways to draw those trendlines, like putting instead of a 1 pixel line drawn thru say rising tops and bottoms, putting a 10 pixel swath to allow for outlying st peaks in panic buying or selling, sometimes you get those outliers that look like the trend is changing and it pops right back in.

Now i'll bring it up again, after you are pronouncing judgement over others about trendlines, i brought this up before,

you posted a monthly chart of the nasdaq with a declining topsline off two points in 00, the nasdaq crashed off 00 and the market which had no statistically valid measure during the bubble, equally had no statistical measure on the collapse, but you gave a two point trendline on a three year chart validity, when it had no statistcal validity, just two points, and a big vacuum in between, this was not your best work - imo.

I could call you on this one - just like your calling others.

So behave -g-

My only hope is that I haven't seen the entire movie in the previews<<<<

there are those movies that show their best face in the trailers, and then there are those movies that are so rich that the trailer doesn't do justice to the movie,

this is one of those.

two turtle doves, 3 onion rings, and 4 pickles in a pear tree -g

Where is Metsin? (nm)<<<<

I've missed the last 4-5000 posts on this thread, are most people here still bearish and looking for dow 5000 and a nassacre, even though we've gone thru another earnings season with miniscule negative pre-announces, and lots of upside surprises, miniscule new lows and lots of new highs?????


turn that friggen bowl from june 02 to april 03 on the spx upside down and it looks like the year 2000 -g-

Anybody see 'Elf' this weekend.

Not a Will Ferrel fan, but in this little ditty, he was cast perfectly.

Funny and charming,

4 pickles in a pear tree.

You also know I am a stickler for drawing trend lines, price action pattern lines, etc to an exact set of standards<<<<<

ya, LG, but charts are not engineered drawings, they are representations of people's emotional and irrational attachment to money and power.

The most engineered trendlines don't work all the time, and i'm sure you will agree with me that market direction analysis, is just as much art as science.


db

Is it just me<<<<

no -g-

Deucey, what's your Giggonalysis on the state of the market?<<<

thanks for asking augie - not that i have more of a clue than miss cleo or even Kramer, i have been burning the midnight oil at my day job lately, so i don't have the time to trade or post.

only thing i can tell you is that the market seems to be oscillating in a uptrend, between fear and greed, we might be getting near a st top, but last week we had a reading over 1 on p/c ratio, which needs to be taken care of, i'm not sure it has yet.

just put your linear bars at 1 and .6 on the cboe p/c ratio chart and do a 10 and 20 dma, when your hitting those extremes on a moving average the st trend is probably ending, we are in a trending market, but it's oscillating pretty hard.

Goodnight, from rainy, wet, and cold southern Kal-I=Fornia,

thank god.