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Badrain88 in and out since August 2017 hehe. Currently in bigly.
Yeah fairly normal volume before a major event for a stock I've seen but nothing out of the ordinary these days. Also add delays, mechanical problems, SEC inquiry and people will be hesitant and will wait for the free ride up. Today's drop was partly due to shorting and traders not seeing the PR today. No one is really selling either as usual.
RELEASE THE KRAKEN! We mean it this time haha
It's almost certain there'll be a trade halt at this stage. From my observations with trade halts it'll trigger massive movements up and down. Might be more than one depending on the magnitude of the announcement and obviously the volume.
I hope so. I've yet to see ZN release an after hours PR. Always pre or after market open. I'm glad they've confirmed it'll be this week though. What a rollercoaster! Good luck to everyone. Except the shorts that is.
I suspected something might drop Thursday. If for no other reason than to catch the shorts with their pants down thinking they have til Monday lol. Sneaky! I like it. This should pop tomorrow even with no announcement.
The "short" answer to the extremely large short interest is the lack of fundamentals and Zion's unsuccessful past history. They have done their DD as well and are betting ZN will bat 0 for 3 this time around again. They know this could literally be a penny stock in week or two. And let's face it, they might be in the right so the risk/reward factor could pay off if this goes off a cliff 80 or 90 percent. The delays and the silence is very unusual and a negative signal. The flip side of the coin is the longs doubling down just like them but the visibility on this curve seems foggy even at this late stage. Zion will have to announce a game changer to flush the shorts out imho.
KyOil by any chance did you see the movie Deepwater Horizon? It's about the BP offshore rig blowout in 2010. It's been awhile since I saw it but the pressure that resulted was from skipping a safety measure around 7000 as well.
Anybody care to speculate the "mechanical" part of the issue they might have run into? Would it be the need to test both wells as one instead of testing each individually qualify.
RELEASE THE KRAKEN! Lol
In retrospect I don't believe any formal investigation has begun yet. Since Zion is fully cooperating with the SEC I consider this as more of a fact finding inquiry than an official investigation. The SEC will put out a release publicly if they are convinced the company warrants one. Since they haven't then everything is completely preliminary. I've read about companies that will stall and evade inquiries, which, if they would have cooperated from the start, would have deflected an official investigation.
For what it's worth it's better this "inquiry" came to light now as opposed to later. If the upcoming update is a blockbuster then the rest will take care of itself. It's definitely more advantageous to release an update sooner than later as unknown factors have presented themselves. The shorts are playing with fire in more ways than one. Nasdaq is certainly in the know and they sometimes act in conjunction with the SEC. They might unwittingly provoke a trade halt which is worse than an SEC halt as it could drag on for months. In the end no one really wins as Shorts pay exorbitant borrow fees and Long shares are frozen. Hopefully Zion's filings and paperwork are all in order and this shouldn't be a concern. A recent case study is LFIN which was halted almost 2 months for not filing a 10Q. The SEC announced they were also investigating for insider trading the same day. A heavily shorted stock with a very low float, almost %70 short interest. The halt and the SEC probe was definitely incited by Shorts tipping off both organizations because they lost big money shorting the stock. It was being squeezed before it got halted. To be honest, LFIN was a crypto company and may be shady but long story short (hehe), Shorts, and short puts, got it up the rear during the halt and after. 2 months of Short Puts expired and shorts paying up the nose borrow premiums. The stock reopened considerably lower but eventually squeezed up (again) as many longs refused to sell at such a low valuation.
Since we don't know exactly the nature of the investigation it's too early to tell. This kind of inquiry usually lasts months. Zion may be a $50 stock by the time it's all over. If exonerated then the pps goes up even more. It certainly won't affect the upcoming catalyst but the short term price will probably hit a year low. Worst case scenario at this point is an SEC trade halt which is 10 days but I don't think that will occur in this case. Short interest of course will increase even further.
It's a well known fact that a lot of investigations happen because of shorts claiming this or that about a stock to the SEC. These guys will comb through a company's filings and releases like wall street professionals. If they fail to come up with anything they'll dream something up, contact the SEC, and hope it sticks. This being a faith based company is all the motivation they need unfortunately.
I tend to agree as "two" becomes plural and thus can be challenged as being disingenuous with their official projection. From what I've read online about the normal duration in the testing process, up to two months is standard.
It's been a little over a month if you went with Dustin's original statement on June 5th. There was a reset in the last PR dated the 19th of June (combining of 2 zones) which is where I'm anchoring the next news release. As I've mentioned before I'm betting it'll be the 13th. It's something shorts and bears, and in this case, a few "longs" can poke holes at. I took the "weeks not months" with a slight grain of salt but I certainly don't believe this news blackout lasts past 19 July.
Very interesting! Thank you sir. The one big positive I've noted is barely any mention of any consequential amount of water cut since reaching TD. Which I've gathered from a past oil play could adversely affect even a potential big find if the drilling side of the operation wasn't careful.
KyOil given the two zones were so close that it became necessary to test them together, does this strike anything from your past experience what may or may not bode about this discovery? Does it signify anything at all from a geologic perspective? What's your hunch dude.
I would conjecture a %60 chance of a PR (later) this week but a %90 probability next week. My own guess would be no later than 13 July pre or post market. Be that as it may, the final countdown is here and the wait is almost over.
I believe a trade halt can be voluntary if the company deems it necessary to give the exchange a heads up on momentous news. If they decide to release a PR after hours then a trade halt will be incurred by the exchange the following trading day if the volume pre or post market is way above the average. I for one hope they decide not to do a trade halt pending news for selfish reasons. Those trade halts alert everyone and their day trading uncle and the pps becomes extremely volatile right after. If they release it like a normal PR then that'll give me time to double down as the news spreads and the pps climbs up hehe.
There's a mini squeeze going on right now. With oil bumping up as well there could be a new high before news. A PR drop and it'll be a done deal for shorts.
ZN is on the radar. This will trend up this week. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183539-week-26-breakout-forecast-short-term-picks-give-edge
Expro has a few informative videos on youtube with regards to Well Testing.
I suspect you're right Tothe as they have gotten gun shy about operational updates through PRs. Since the 2nd well should be completed I still think they'll make it known through social media on Monday. Concurrently they may mention something about the 3rd one with a more concrete target date for completion.
An update tomorrow I'd say about 50/50. I have a feeling Monday with news also that they've commenced testing the third well. Just a hunch.
The biggest factor further down the road will be Proven and Probable reserves in their discovery. This doesn't happen overnight but ultimately will dictate a few scenarios with regard to Zion's valuation. In the meantime you can look forward to very positive quarterly earnings reports as soon as production starts. This will drive the PPS and keep it on a forward momentum. The elephant in the room will always be Israel if the find is historical.
It's been said that to be a Short you have to be smarter and more vigilant than the average trader. It's riskier in the fact that you can wake up one morning and your entire account is wiped out and worse case your losses exceed what you have in that account. Normal traders can only lose %100 but shorts can lose beyond that if the position he's in pops past %100 and continues. That of course automatically triggers a margin call which will have to be settled end of trading day. No short wants that and will cover at whatever the current ask is when he realizes the PPS will keep going upward. When he covers he becomes a long and drives the price up. In this regard it's no wonder they're all over the chat boards actively sowing negativity. They actively short concertedly as well.
Sweet Crude. I believe most of the big oil discoveries in the Mid-East falls under that category. Since hardly any processing is required obviously the quickest to bring to market. Venezuela, even with the largest oil reserves in the world, are the hardest to refine.
ZN is in way oversold territory. I think we'll see a decent bump today. TSLA had their shareholder meeting the same day as ZN and they had a nice little pop.
Less. I believe Victor Carillo and Justin Guinn specifically stating they've encountered Oil. No mention of gas except as a casual aside as it's part and parcel of finding hydrocarbons. Finding gas in commercial quantities is not a bad thing but that's not the mission here.
Just watched the video linked up to their Twitter account. I too was really impressed with Justin Guinn and his operational update/testimony. The trials and tribulations getting to completion was an eye opener and no minor miracle. If I'm not mistaken Flatron you mentioned you were a former oilman so your take on the proceedings might be illuminating.
I believe they'll release a PR early next week. If not just to update on the ongoing testing and other tidbits. Also they'll be on the tail end or have completed the 2nd most promising zone.
A fusion of both our dreams is a $17 pps which was my prediction when news finally hits. Hmmm
A funny dream the other night. Zion popped to $7.00 and I was looking at my TD Ameritrade screen but couldn't find the trade function lol. I've been trading/investing almost 20 years and that's the first time I've ever had a dream about a stock or the stock market.
Sent this out a few hours ago and maybe others have too:
Good evening and greetings from California. I'm a current shareholder of Zion and as you are aware and have already addressed on Twitter, there has been a persistent rumor circulating in the web about a yet unconfirmed SEC probe into Zion. This unfortunately has gained too much traction and I believe needs to be addressed with more vigor. Being in the internet age of easy anonymity I hope you can announce in a more assertive manner that this unscrupulous piece of gossip is what it is. It's a shame that it has to come to this but it's certain that if it's not dealt the way it should, more shareholders will be tempted to sell for the wrong reasons. I'm a firm believer in Zion and your goals to provide the shareholders and Israel with blessed providence.
No doubt! We are one PR away from greatness. Even if they just decide to address the bogus SEC investigation hit piece tomorrow this will go bonkers and negate the slide from the past week. It's a damn shame to have to wade through this much dung but that's the internet age for you.
I can grudgingly agree with this likelihood. Although, it'll be awkward if not downright problematic if they conclude the conference without giving shareholders an assessment about the initial testing phase. At any rate it's guaranteed Tuesday the industry and the world will be watching Zion very closely. The pressure is on! lol
Someone called this shakeout a while back, I don't remember who but it's not anything unusual even with a catalyst as big as this. In this case it's reminiscent of a bio pharma or biotech event with weak hands getting cold feet and bailing. Classic buy the rumor, sell before the news move. Zion's a perfect target for this type of short attack being a microcap and a wildcat play. That being said it's now the perfect setup for an epic squeeze if Zion delivers the goods. This could run in the hundreds of percents in the first pop.
Fair enough. If you know anything about how the SEC operates this is the worse hit piece ever produced. But obviously timed well enough to cause a decent shakeout. The SEC calling or contacting a company for routine inquiry doesn't constitute a probe or signify anything negative. Although the inquiry may be documented and in this case dredged up as a facsimile.