All true statements.

DO left ADXS with a $350M MC, $6.50 SP, nearly $100M cash in the bank, and 100 employees.

What I find interesting is I did exactly that. I sold 90% of my ADXS at $9.50 and $9.75 back in March 2017 (previous posts will support this) and you will not believe how many messages I got saying “I would not sell now if I was you” and “once you sell out you might not have time to jump back in” or “that is a mistake, this thing will take off sooner rather than later”. But I went with my gut and bailed out one day just because I didn’t feel comfortable owning shares for the first time after nearly 4 years.

When DO got a BOD seat at ONCS I actually bought a chunk of shares (also posts will support) and the stock more than doubled when they announced him CEO. I sold ½ and I’m letting the freebies ride out the long haul.

Just gotta go with your gut sometimes, and if you have a gut feeling ADXS might not go up for a long time (or ever), then recall back to this moment later on down the line and see if your gut was right or wrong. “This could go to the moon or it could get delisted/issue 50M shares at $1”. Guess I will check back in a few months and see how things look.

The last I read the going consensus on this board was that this was going to raise up as the Neon IPO approached. I just noticed that it is already trading and this is down over 15% leading up to the new IPO.

To put that a different way. A copetitor IPO'd at a 1/2B valuation and ADXS set a new multi year low. Looks like the predictions of this MB is nearly as bad as the performance of ADXS.

Im confused. Please correct me if I am wrong (I have not followed this for a while now) but AXAL is what they just filed for EMA correct? And isn’t AXAL what received the best ever GOOG results?

If this is true, I thought this was the base to a lot of the comfort to this MB and investors? So many catalysts were tied to this throughout the years (most recently the EMA and the expectation of a partner with it). Now they are announcing they want a partner in 3 months and if they don’t get one, they are going to shelve it? This is what confuses me. If it is not a good product and costing a bunch of money, then yes shelve it. If it has the opportunity to go the distance, but you just want a partner, then don’t announce it like he did. That is either taken as a sign of weakness (we cant afford it and need help) or a threat (if you don’t step up quick, nobody gets it).

If I somehow have any of the technicalities of this messed up with different drugs or trials just let me know and I can take down this post. If all this is true though, how is this at all a good thing for the company? Cutting costs and programs just to start on new ones does not sound smart when you have no money.

If no partner steps up in 3 months, then what happens???

I have a question for those who really believe a BO is likely and near.

My question is, why would a BP buy this for $10, $20, or $50 per share, yet Instituional/Fund investors who invest in this sector, not even touch this at sub $2?

This is a legitimate question. And before it is mentioned of the few that did add shares, ownership is somewhere around the 40% right now.

These institutions try to get in ahead of BO so they can reap the rewards of the run up. Here it seems like they have been trying to get out during the steady drop. Why would they not be taking a risk at $1.XX? Seems like a good risk/reward for them considering so many on this board calling for a 1,000% - 5,000% return over the near term. I just find it hard to believe that this board has a better understanding on what is comming for ADXS vs a professional fund with teams of researchers. Especially considereing the track record of this boards predictions over the last 4 years of calling for a BO (anywhere from $200 SP all the way down to $50 SP).

So I agree with your first 2 points but your 3rd point is backward. The reverse split will occur before the nex BIG dilution. A RS of 4/1 or even 5/1 would put this thing back in the $6-$8 range and making it possible for more funds to invest in it. I think this will occure in 2019 at some time. The new investors will know that the big news everyone here has been waiting for over the past 4 years, could be as little as 12 months from the time they buy in, esentially saving the company.

Maybe but I just dont see it. I think June and July will continue to be pretty silent with a sub $2.50 SP closing out July and a sub $3 SP closing out 2018 (assuming a RS is not performed, but I expect that to occure next year).

This thing still has a very long way to go before any real value is created.

The same exact thing was said for the ICEO and also the same exact thing was said during DO's final days.

Maybe the 3rd try is the charm, but then again, maybe this thing continues to drift along quietly in the $1-2 range for the rest of the year, just waiting for something to happen.

You are welcome.

So I guess it is equally as obvious as to why this is sub $2 then. And little institutional interest.

ADXS 1 of only 3 trials on hold out of over 200+? That is not good.

The other 2 holds have been in place for 9 months, while ADXS trial on hold for only 3 months? That is not good either.

This is the 2nd trial ADXS has had on hold in recent years. Also, not good.

Well, for a company that will run out of cash before the end of this year, sitting near all time lows, struggling to sell shares during the last round of dilution at 2 bucks, and just 78 cents away from starting the delisting process, low institutional interest, all with no significant ground breaking news or cash expected in the near term, yea all those topics are currently very relevant.

As far as the 20, 40, 50, and 100 targets. Yea it must have been on a green day. That always tends to get people excited here.

I have read this many times here but never asked the question. If you spend $6.5M per month and you have current liabilities of $20M and another $15M in long term liabilities (not debt), how do you survive?

Easy answer is sell stock. But is that feasable to do at/under $1? How long until it is back on the OTC pink sheets and still blowing through tons of cash with no product or revenue. What is your plan on surviving and not filing bankruptcy at that time? Just currious if you thought this out or just think filling bankruptcy is impossible without having debt?


FYI a creditor from debt, AP, employee, of other, all have the right to file suit for their payment if not received timely, and with no cash in the bank, bankruptcy is a strategy to possibly save the company. So it is possible even with having "debt".

Institutional ownership has been droping for the last 3 years. I started pointing this out the 1st Qtr it started to drop, but the message was never received well by the MB. From a high of roughly 80% to a current low of 33%. Not good. That also corresponds pretty closely to the SP high of $30 to the current low of $1.xx over the last 3 years. Not manipulation, just SP demand. Also not the Executive level turnover over the same 3 year range. All the pieces are there. Just gotta look at them all and put them together.

Looking forward, what has changed (as in the inverse of the above)? Heavy Institution buying? No. Amazing data/PR/news? No. Top level CEO/CFO? No/no. Likely near term substantial event? Other than the same whishful possibility the past 3 years has provided, no.

So... Yes another r/s is an option, near term ATL dilution is likely, being a permanant single digit stock is possible, getting a BO offer (been talked about for many many years but here it is sitting in the $1's) highly unlikely based on past and current events/situation.

Done hold your breath. That is not how it works in ADXS land. This could easily see another red day tomorrow regardless of the PR later today.

Also no need for dilutive offering if they are setting up for a sale, but they did. And no need for new authorized shares if they are setting up for a sale, but they are getting them.

Only reason to bring in a real CEO is to get the SP to recover to a reasonable price, and then sell out at a premium on the recovered SP.

Only reason to keep ICEO is if everyone keeps turning down the position.

You thinking bankruptcy or BO?

I think this will still be up and going well into 2020. Maybe after another RS, that if happens will happen this year. And over 100M+ shares outstanding. But I think this gets purchased in 2020 for around $20 give or take $10. This has been my prediction for about the last 2 years now and it still looks quite possible I think.

An offer lower than that could get it done tomorrow, but guess what, no offer in sight. Otherwise why would ADXS not mention them, stir up some interest, get the SP up, and do a much less dilutive offering? Only one logical answer, no reasonable offer worth mentioning has been made yet.

But it seems to be agreed upon that that was pure manipulation getting it up to $30, just so it could be manipulated and shorted down. So why would any potential buyer ever consider manipulating this up, just too then pay a higher price for it? Where is the logic in that? Seems like if there were a slim chance of any potential buyer out there currently, they would step in and offer the standard 100% premium. Then try 200%. If the Board does not bite, tell them “good luck, you need us more than we need you”. And then just wait for the SP to drop into the toilet, and the SH’s to turn against management, denying additional shares to fund the business, and then wait for ADXS to come groveling back 12-18 months later begging to be purchased because they have no money and no funding source because the SH’s voted no on their proxy.

That looks to be a more realistic picture than think a $20 BO will occur in 6 months or trying to compare this to Ariad.

But hey what do I know, I have only been right on around 60% of my ADXS predictions so far. Who knows. Maybe you get this one right this time.

It took over 3 years for Ariad to get from the $2's to a mid $20 BO. Is that the same timeframe you have for Advaxis?

Also 1 year prior to the BO, Ariad was at $5 where most institutions can buy in at. It steadily climbed throughout the year to a $15 where it was then BO for a 100% premium.

Does any of the above resemble anything remotely close to what ADXS is currently doing?

Yes they have. And yes, they will. 2.5M RSU's approved by SH's to be issued to management, per year for the next 9 years. Even if they do not disperse them out, they accumulate and are 100% vested at the time of a BO, if that ever happens.

This is not news. Do some DD before making false statements.

If hypothetically a BO were to occur January 2019, management would be entitled to 5M RSU’s. Unless you believe they are more ethical than that.

Actually, he is correct in his statement. Where do you suppose the 2.5M RSU's per year will come from exactly? They already registered 2M of them for this year. They still need authorized shares to allow for registering 2.5M shares for themselves per year going forward. It is basic math really.

Every single person here should have seen this coming. Writing was on the wall.

FYI when DO left:
ADXS at $6.50. ONCS was $1.07.
Now:
ADXS at $2.18. ONCS was $1.87.

Just let that sink in.

Vote WILL pass and new shares WILL be issued within weeks of the meeting. Everyone knows this will happen. No reason to spin it this any other way. Just accept it and move on.

It's official. New 10 year low set today. Congrats! I didnt think it would get here till next Monday, but true to form, ADXS pulled it off.

Interim CEO stated he would generate SH value. Down aroun 60% since he took over.

Old CEO is running another company and just issued 15M shares before the market crash, and SP is still holding up strong higher than the issue price. Stock up over 60% since he took over there.

Maybe DO was not the problem. If he was, why would this be down after he left and his new company be up? Doesn't add up. But easy to point the finger.

If next Monday goes the same as today this will be at a new 10 year low. Also this could have a market cap of under $100M for the first time since 2014.

On a side note, looking at the management comp on the proxy, it looks like the 4 C-level managers make a combined $10M in total comp per year, roughly. Those 4 individuals are making 10% of the toal market cap of ADXS per year. Impressive!

Update: Now only 3 pennies away from a 10 year low!

9 pennies away from a new 5 year low!

Involuntary Termination in connection with a Change in Control.

Both individuals have this. Both would walk away with over $1MM in the event of a BO or merger. Why tack on another $100k? If the million would not cause them to stick around, do they really think another 100k would help?

What exactly was my "opinion or conjecture"? I kept it fairly factual, did I not? Let me help clarify this for you.

Company needs money, company wants more shares, to probably issue, in return for money.

A retention plan is designed to keep people from leaving.

By SEC standars, material news has to be released.

EMA not filed yet.

"No perm CEO because funding has not been addressed yet. After new shares are issued a perm CEO will be announced shortly after" - Okay this was a prediction, but a fairly logical one. Company needs money, has an interim ceo, and wants more authorized shares. Hmmm I guess I just conected the dots.

"No talk from company on BO, partnerships, or franchise purchase" - partnership and franchise would have to be annouced per SEC, BO offer, only if ADXS decides to annouce.

Institutions bailing - See quarterly fillings.

So what was not factual about my statements?

Well I did sell out 11 months ago, and so has institutional owners over the last year, so I guess some of us are smarter than others.

You are correct. And I am sure after approved, they will just look at all those shares sitting there with no intention of issuing them, because they are conservative with spending and always tried to avoid dilution. Oh wait, it has always been the opposite. Guess we will see in 6 months. I bet 5M new shares issued sub $5 by summer. I give it 80% chance of happening.

Yes, they do have a fix for cash needs. Its called the new 30M shares. Why ask for that many if they have cash covered? People here have talked about the low outstanding share count so seems reasonable to assume issuing more shares would make sense. After the issue, even at 3, plenty of cash to carry them into 2019. Not sure how people are not putting this together yet.

They want more shares, to issue them, to cover the cash problem. It's not rocket science.

Actually what doesnt make sense is thinking this will be BO anytime soon. Everything else makes perfect sense.

- The BOD and management Does care about money, just look at the proxy (30M new shares. After issued would provide funding for 12-24 months).

- The retention plan was to prevent DO from recruiting employees, assuming he was fired, he could do that as payback, smart move by the BOD to prevent further negative attention.

- Lack of news because nothing to announce. (per business plan expect news 1H 2018 at a major conference, no major conferences occured yet, assume ASCO to be conservative)

- EMA not filed yet but expected timeframe has not expired yet either. Give them a bit more time and I am sure they will get it filed within the expected window).

- No perm CEO because funding has not been addressed yet. After new shares are issued a perm CEO will be announced shortly after.

- No talk from company on BO, partnerships, or franchise purchase because... No interest yet. Gotta give it more time to play out.

- Sub $3 stock because (all of the above) plus Institution bailed pretty hard after DO left and after sub $5 happened. Also they have been net selling the last 4 Q's in a row, combined with short count increase equals more selling pressure with minimal buying pressure. It only takes 1 major investor to the potential here and this would rise, but smart money must not be as smart as this MB.

Exactly, and yet... Here they stay. Over 8M of them at last count.

On the flip side, why would institutions not be buying hand over fist at this level, if it really is that undervalued?

Shorts are not bailing, longs are not jumping in, and company is not releasing any news. Kind of a stalemate on all fronts.

So it sounds like you agree that the filing will not effect the SP in the ST? Well of course an approval would cause this to jump, that is obvious. However, with approval not expected for nearly a year, that is a long time to wait just to see a slow steady until then. From $2.73 a slow steady raise might only get this to 4-5 range. Plus that raise might not start for months after the filing. With approval not expected for roughly a year, that leaves a lot of uncertainty for cash needs, especially with the new authorized share request. I dont think shorts are worried at this point with this being under $5 since Sept 17 and at/under $3 for going on 4 months now. They know they have both time and oprtions.

That is exactly what I think it is, just a coincidence. IMO I think the EMA application is filed with little to no reaction from the market. I think the March retention date will come and go with no activity. And finally I think the March Meeting will get here and the authorized shares will be approved. That is what I think near term. Further out I think Bonstein following DOC and Lombardo issuing shares in the $5 range right around ASCO. The issuance will probably put pressure on the SP as it usually does pushing this back to the 4’s.

Just my thoughts, and the only reason I think this is because based on historical events, this has the highest likely hood of how it will actually play out. Not being optimistic or negative, just reading it how it is, without reading between the lines. If this is how it ends up playing out, looking back it will be obvious that it happened that way.

You will be getting the exact same answers as if you would have asked this question 4 years ago. 4 years ago knowone would have guested this would be sitting on a 50% loss versus in the 20's, 30's, or 50 range.

Warrants are going to expire worthless. Hope no holders here.

Now that is a good question. They are sending the message that they plan on still being ADXS through roughly 2021-2022 which should take all BO talk off the table.

Enough cash now to get through 2018. 20M shares available to issue, even at a measly $5 is $100M. Assuming a cash burn rate or $50M per year, that gets them into 2021. Keep in mind this is assuming zero milestone payments and zero future non-dilutive cash deals, either of those could fund them another 6-12 months, right into 2022.

Going it alone is the message they are sending to the market with this.

Going it alone has always been the plan and could end up being the most profitable in the long run. This was never a quick flip. This was build a company up to a 5-10B company even if it takes 10 years. Eventualy the science will drive the company value, even if it take 80-100M outstanding shares. That still works out to WAY more than a $20-$30 BO price now. Why sell out cheap if you think this has real potential of going the distance.

Actually that is not how it works but I can PM if you need a tutorial on outstanding shares. Just let me know.

This is a recurring theme every year.

2016 - "If they dont have this to $20 by the meeting, lets all vote no to DO's Unearned Share Grab" - It passed.

2017 - "If they dont have this to $20 by the meeting, lets all vote no to the Employee Stock Purchase Plan of 2.5M shares per year for 10 years" - It passed

2018 - "If they dont have this to $20 by the meeting, lets all vote no to the 30M new shares" - It will pass

See the theme?