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It would make a great book/movie. both Nader and Allen really have very interesting backgrounds and how they ended up developing this drug is fascinating.
This was many years ago, before Nader was part of the company. It was a re-formulation of the original drug, cytolin, to be used for cats with HIV. This is apparently a real thing. It was an attempt to get the drug on the market as quickly and cheaply as possible so revenue could fund the further development of cytolin for humans. It never went anywhere mostly because of lack of funds. Back then the daily volume was less the 5,000 shares traded per day. This was why i was stuck in this for so long - I could not sell without bankrupting the company. A sell order of 5,000 shares would move the SP down $.05-.10 easy.
They also were working on a bird flu vaccine, the Corona-virus PR reminded me of that. Allen (the founder of Cytodyn) was a very smart guy, unfortunately he did not have the business acumen to move forward with his drug. He passed away a couple years ago, wish he was around to see what is going on now.
invested since 2006 IPO, $.75 was the offering to start.
he has "his way"? wow, maybe it involves accidentally typing a different ticker symbol and trading that while thinking he has some intellect to manipulate on a IB? this guy is just too funny.
"CYDY has roughly an 8 fold increase in patient population versus IMMU. However, IMMU enjoys an 18 fold increase in market capitalization over CYDY even though they are neck and neck in the approval process. As the story evolves we believe this disparity will resolve itself in short order. What is even stranger than the extremely low market cap of CYDY is that they have an HIV drug, which on its own merits could dethrone Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD). This is all the more reason for investors to pay attention to this rapidly evolving story. "
this is great stuff!
true, my guesstimate is that selling 5 million at $.3 netted him $1.5 million. It would burn a little if now cytodyn took back the 8 million shares it should based on his for cause dismissal.
Well, he sold his company to cytodyn for shares and no cash. He obviously had a very unpleasant divorce from his first wife and has 2 kids, so that ain't cheap. I have no idea what income he makes of being an expert medical witness or from the university gig. Why else would he sell shares at $.30 from a company that is developing his "life's work", especially given the cancer trial results?
"Can you take him seriously?"
Yes, i take Ohm seriously
That’s logical, except what happens if there is more than one interested party? If any of these parties have decided this drug is valuable and/or necessary to protect their market share, then the valuation that the analyst vanishes. The situation turns into what is it going to cost and what are the other parties offering or able to offer. The share price is a representation of whatever crap financing it took to develop this drug to this point. The value is not just a multiple or history of a ticker symbol.
That was not what was said, Nader said paused. Why would Nader hold off on a deal that he could sign today? Maybe a better deal? Hold be the folks looking at the Nash data want the whole enchilada? Nash is a billion dollar deal, that means it is only BP. BP would likely toss around the idea of a full buy out and having an hiv partner deal thrown in would make things complicated. I would wait and see what can pan out on this. I don’t doubt that some BP suggested they pause on the partner deal and Nader and the board are taking that suggestion seriously.
This is the readout for the patient in the actual trial, not the compassionate use patient. It is new and it is very important. This person was diagnosed with a cancer that will kill them in months and leronlimab stopped it. I guess you need more than this to care.
You don’t think Nader is working? His job is to keep the train moving in the right direction. This means raising the funds as best as possible, hiring the best most productive people and vendors and responding to all inquiries. Saying he needs to shut up and work is rather shallow. Do you think he would fly over to the FDA office and stand outside the door hounding the FDA to work faster? Should he emphasize the risk of investing in small otc biotechs, reminding investors of just how often these things fail instead of showcasing the opportunity and being optimistic? Should he come out and announce they are stopping all other indications until the fda approves the combo indication?
You can be cranky about missed timelines but the value of this drug is huge and apparently many can only focus on the calendar .The ceo can’t control time when so much of the goal depends on factors he does not have much control over. Before you say he should be more accurate or tempered in his statements, without optimism there is no investment and no funding to get any accomplishments. at no point was this company presented as a safe sure thing and that you will make 10x your investment in a few weeks. This is aOTC biotech with no approved drug yet, no revenue and a huge potential. If you did not realize that then I don’t understand why you invested. There are many other stocks you cold choose from, you could even pick out your favorite ceo and invest in their company!
I can’t think of too many companies that give status updates so frequently, so I don’t understand how you want more transparency. Being late on projected timelines does not mean anything has failed. You invested in an otc small biotech, did you not realize there is risk in that?
That was not the question I was answering. You could just make your own post instead of jumping in for the sole purpose of killing any positive sentiment.
Because the FDA required more safety data at the 700mg dose. If you had done any DD you would know this.
Before you try and turn this around in to a negative, Cytodyn had enough safety data per the FDA's original protocol requirements, The FDA asked for more later, not Cytodyn's fault. In fact, this will be of benefit in the future as Cytodyn will not need to collect safety data for various doses for future indications because it will already be done as a result of this HIV combo trial.
You can use the search function to learn more.
I really understand less and less why you post. If you are not a biotech expert and feel there is no reason why this drug has not been approved already and feel the CEO is so worthless, why in the world would you invest? The biggest reason there is optimism in this is due to the science and trial results for this drug. You admit you don't know much about this aspect of this investment and yet you feel there is a bright future? How would you know? I would think the very thing that would spark interest in this company as an investment is the science and you seem to feel this is not worthy of your time? Do you look for terrible CEOs and invest based on that?
You are clearly making an effort to trash talk and dis-credit others for your own motives and benefit. At least try and learn about this drug and the difficulty of raising the cash to get through FDA trials. You might better understand why other posters (actual investors) are hopeful despite the steep mountain that must be climbed.
How about you answer some questions:
Why are you so sure that there will not be any partnership deal this year?
If you dislike the mgmt of this company so much and feel the future is so dark, why are you invested so heavily (according to you) and why do you post so often with your personal negative opinion?
Can you explain how a drug that has been injected in over 800 patient with no safety issues at all, a phase 3 trial complete and a rolling review given by the FDA will not have BLA filed ASAP?
this was your post from yesterday:
"Yes, good strategy for you! I am adding whenever I can. Closed to 500,000 shares now. We will be retiring any day now. Vegas next! Oh yeah baby. Nader let’s get it done!!"
I'm really not understanding the point of you posting at all, the flip flopping tends to make everything you say somewhat worthless. Are we to assume you are being sarcastic? if so, which post is the sarcastic one?
Good point, But we should also look at this deal from the perspective of this partner. They do not turn a profit until Leronlimab is on the market and has generated $140 million in revenue to the partner to pay for the upfront and marketing launch. This partner is not going to risk anything coming in the way of this drug not getting to market - it is in their best interest to provide what ever financial support to get this to revenue.
Nader say this is low risk AT THIS POINT because the trial for the combo HIV indication is done and the risk that there is a failure during the trial or not good trial results is gone. The hard part of getting through a p3 FDA trial is over. He also is making this statement because over 800 patients have been injected, some for many years, with no safety issues.
If you compare this company to some other biotech (all small biotechs are high risk) in the middle of any phase of clinical trials, those companies are facing the possiblity of a trial failure, Cytodyn does not have that concern AT THIS POINT.
This is a boilerplate statement certainly used in every small biotech, if not any publicly traded company. It is a generic disclaimer and you know that. If this is the best you can do, i guess there is nothing tho worry about.
I don’t understand how one partner deal removes the buyout possibility. This one partner has a sweet deal, the only way for another pharma to top it is to buy this out entirely. Do you really think that once this drug hits the market and the # of patients that were on some other existing drug are now on leronlimab and soon only on leronlimab and BP won’t do anything? They have to act, they can’t survive the quarterly earnings call from their investors asking how they missed this.
This partnership legitimizes this in a big way. This is a transformation from a garage band to a world wide sensation.
I find this odd, Nader is the CEO, but only one very visible employee. Look at each of the BOD, all have diverse backgrounds, many in business and funding industries. Do you really think each of them are not actively involved with each major development and opportunity? This is not he Nader show, and to continually think that Nader is the only one driving the bus does not make sense. On top of that, we had a BP CEO level in Tony C. What happened there? Nothing.
I am not saying Nader is the best for the job or that a more seasoned CEO would have done better in some situations. but to think that magically the enrollments, fda protocols and funding sources would just appear is simply not true. Trying to find a simple singular blame for the SP, which is they only big oulier in this, cant be solely Nader.
I respect your opinion always but there is way more detail in what got us here than things a CEO of any background can control.
I do feel the need to remind you of your comparison to the Voice TV show. Once this deal is signed and we know some company jumped in, others will follow. This is the validation this needs. But, the deal needs to get done. There does not seem to be any desperation in mgmt or the BOD and the details of this deal certainly do not look desperate either. Whoever this partner is, they want this.
Suvorov totally stood up for the last bed he made, oh wait, he did not.
The way I look at it is that it is unquestionable that Nader has not been able to deliver on most timeline dates by a long shot, But the progress is very much there. As an analogy, you want to build a deck in the backyard and the contractor say it will be done in a weekend. That weekend turns into 6 months of excuses, and the value of your house goes down because the construction site in the backyard. But at some point the deck does get done and the home's value is higher than before. The process is terrible but past failure can draw attention away from actual progress. We are in fact very close to BLA, as much as we all grip that it was to be a year ago, we are at BLA now.
I can understand skepticism toward Nader given the track record, However "quiet period" and "data room" are terms that have meaning. If you think that cytodyn just threw these out to avoid answering questions and to keep the dream alive - i doubt it. If it is found that there was no deal requiring the quiet period and/or know one in the data room - the repercussions would be far greater than just answering the difficult questions. Keep in mind, if Nader really did not want to answer questions about the financing, status of deals etc.. - he could just not have the CC's. He does not need to update us on any of this.
I looked up what triggers a "quiet period" and this is what i found on wiki:
"During a Quiet Period, a publicly listed company cannot make any announcements about anything that could cause a normal investor to change their position on the company's stock. Normally, that means the company does not discuss any of the following:
New deals or wins signed in that current quarter. Announcements about previously sold implementations going live are allowed but must be explicitly described as such.
Management changes
Progress against company goals
Major product or service announcements
Major partnership announcements"
I think it is very likely the deal or deals are very eminent this quarter. If Nader was using this as a fictional excuse to not talk about finances, he could have not had the CC at all.
which is what?
Why is the significance of this?
If that is what the CC is going to be about, I doubt they would have the CC at all. Whatever they felt was important enough to host a CC, it is likely more than evasive updates on what we already know. However, many times what Mgmt thinks is significant news fails to actually move the SP positively so even if it is great news, hot sure if it will change the situation.
Ah, got it, did not realize you were referring to The the past potential BP deal. I thought you were referring to the current NBA deal. I hope you understand that bashing other posters for finding potential silver lining does not get much support to your opinions. Optimism is not blind stupidity, it is no different than assuming everything is failing because we don't get minute by minute updates.
I can only read what you post:
"Now after Nader probably failed to negotiate with BP and now tries to make partner agreements"
- this was what I assumed to mean that you think that negotiations have failed, it kind of says that.
"The value of our company is roughly shares multiplied by shareprice. Everybody can calculate this."
then after that insightful post, you post this:
"The current value of Lerolimab is mirrored in the SP, at least that is the value the market attaches to CYDY currently.
You guys seem not to be able to differentiate between the current value of Lerolimab and the potential value of Lerolimab. Without successful BLA, Lerolimab is worth next to nothing. (successful BLA highly expected)"
This clarification is clearly intended to make yourself seem really intelligent by insulting others that are well aware of the difference between SP and potential value.
I have a hard time arguing over Nader's abilities and failures, The SP is the best measure. But the insulting of other posters who are merely optimistic is just tiring.
Nader does not create additional indications. Do you really think he just sits in his office and makes up some possible indication, files and gets accepted an IND from the FDA to just out of the blue? You also assume the negotiations have failed, despite no info to support that. You think that we are all oblivious that this development process costs money so you feel it necessary to point out that cytodyn is slowly bleeding cash and forced to raise cash as needed. Thanks captain obvious. Why are you working so hard to trash talk?
I think my point was pretty close to what you are just now realizing. The potential value is not based on the SP. Your comment that the value of this company is the market cap and Leronlimab is worthless is incorrect. Companies buying/partnering other companies are mostly paying for the product value, not the other companies SP value, especially in this case. Thinks about it, why would any company partner with another? Because they see a potential for profit from the other companies product - hence the value being based on that potential. You can dis-agree all you want, but the Mgmt of this company is clearly negotiating based on this, not the SP.
It does clearly show the selling monday/tuesday was just for freeing up funds to participate in the offer.
We all know that. Do you really think everyone here is this dumb. What you and most don't know is what is the product worth in negotiating deals. That has nothing to do with the SP. The largest investors in this invested through direct placement, not buying on the OTC. Why would you think that the value to them is the SP on the OTC? Unfortunately we have been raising funds based on this SP, but the value of the drug is not the SP value.
There is only one interested party that has signed a NBA, there are other interested partners in discussions. Your claim that only one party is interested is not true.
I agree with you, the stress of trying to figure out how a drug like this can be locked into a company worth so little is real. I think years ago Nader’s tenacity and work ethic drive this forward I feel few experienced ceos could match the accomplishments. At some point the lack of experience started to become a problem as far as managing a publicly traded company. The non stop raises from the same source stole the money that might have invested through the open market, creating a negative trajectory in sp. I can’t say what could have been done differently because this likely was the only option in order to keep going forward. I don’t expect Nader to be able to fix the otc dis function but I also would hope the navigation through this was was better thought out. Remember how many positive PRs were met with cash raise 8ks the same day? I am just exhausted as anyone trying to figure this out. But the drug is a few months away from generating revenue many times greater than the market cap. No matter the time line delays from here, fda approval is real. Taking whatever we can get at this point is not really an option because the bod, mgmt and the largest investors have no interest in letting this go for cheap.
if the bod and other mgmt employees know what Nader knows, and can (and have) bought stock, Why would only Nader choose not to? Do you think only he know something and is keeping it to himself? If other mgmt and bod buy in repeatedly then they must like what the future developments are looking like, they must have enough of a belief in this to put their money behind it. Just because Nader has not does not mean there is some trouble brewing. The bod have worked with many outsiders in the development of this and yet they still stick with Nader, not actively trying to replace him. Why do you think that is? Do you think that the entire bod can’t see Nader’s incompetence, but you do? How hard would it be to replace him at this point, I would think not to hard. And yet they do not.
I do not think the board or mgmt have the ability to fix the otc dis function. I think a majority of the investment has been through direct investment, not from buying on the otc market. The selling has to be 100% on the otc. That imbalance explains the stock price, it sucks to raise funds at these levels, but every time a private placement dollar is raised, a dollar that would have raised the sp is taken away.