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Phat profit margin:
Here are the 2?6? healthcare stocks with a net profit margin above 20% and a market cap above $5B
🇦🇺 Pro Medicus $PME 49.3%
🇺🇸 United Therapeutics $UTHR 43.4%
🇺🇸 Halozyme $HALO 39.2%
🇺🇸 Vertex $VRTX 37.0%
🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk $NVO 35.9%
🇺🇸 Merck&Co $MRK 30.4%
🇺🇸 Lantheus $LNTH 29.1%
🇺🇸 Regeneron $REGN 28.6%
🇺🇸 Eli Lilly $LLY 27.8%
🇺🇸 Zoetis $ZTS 27.4%
🇺🇸 Johnson&Johnson $JNJ 24.9%
🇺🇸 Veeva $VEEV 24.8%
🇺🇸 Edwards Lifesciences $EW 25.6%
🇺🇸 Intuitive Surgical $ISRG 24.5%
🇩🇰 Genmab $GMAB 23.6%
🇺🇸 Idexx $IDXX 23.4%
🇨🇭 Roche $ROG 22.0%
Like I said, market participants are excited about the June catalysts for Halo. Especially after the recent 10% haircut.
Not much of what you say adds up with what we observe. You say you don’t care and you are not obsessed with Halozyme. Yet all your posts have been about Halozyme (17 of them just in May). Zero other posts about any other company for as long back as my app let’s me look. The length of your last post also tells a different story.
I know I have had lengthy posts myself and post exclusively on halo but I’m not the one making those claims.
You say stock performance for halozyme has been “lame”! Well that depends on the time frame you look at. If you look at 1 month, 3 months, 3,4,5 and 10 years, Halozyme has outperformed S&P 500. If you look at 6 months or 1 year, yes halozyme has underperformed. Then again, even some of the greatest stocks of all time like apple and Amazon have had periods of time (sometimes multiple years) when they underperformed benchmarks.
I have been an investor in halozyme since 2011. You don’t have to take my word for it. You can see my posts on this board from then for yourself. Long time investors in this name like me have done quite well. From single digits to $40’s.
You claim you are not a short but over the years your consistently pessimistic posts tell a different story to the readers. Yes you have something positive from time to time but usually intermixed with pessimism. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being short. Absolutely nothing. And there is nothing wrong with posting your thoughts and opinions no matter what they are. However, it is pretty difficult to believe you are long as you claim. Again nothing wrong with not being long.
I on the other hand will tell you that I am long and have been for over a decade. I think Helen dropped the ball in 2023 but the business is still fantastic despite 2023 and despite weak IR.
Again, don’t take my word for it. Look at the run up from low 30’s to new 52 week high on May 16. Looks like market participants agree with this positive sentiment. You can also look at 5 year returns and 10 year returns.
Now if you want to discuss the future, then I rather go with the best data available. You can find that here: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios
Or here: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HALO&p=d
Halozyme is a cash flow machine with a phat profit margin and superb EPS growth offered a super conservative PE and PEG valuations. This is true theu 2030 without zero new deals. I said this when we were in teens, 20’s and 30’s. You posts denied this. Guess what, 6 months from now, we will be having the same conversation but at a higher price again.
Yes, I know, I did predict higher prices when I was expecting 3 deals in 2023 and especially HVAI. Helen did not deliver on those. But I always maintained that we will move up without new deals merely based on valuations and we have.
Nonsense! Look at Alteogen’s market cap and compare it to Halozyme. Look at their earnings and comp it to halozyme. Look at the number of agreements for their ribozyme and compare it enhanze.
By any sensible benchmark comparison, Alteogen is tiny compared to halozyme of course unless you are a perma halozyme-bear.
Remember that alteogen’s hyluronidase js not a biosimilar or generic product. It’s patented.
On one hand you say you are worried about patent expiry and biosimilars and on the other hand you say alteogen is great big threat. You can’t talk from the both sides of your mouth. If biosimilars are a threat then alteogen is doomed as well since anyone can introduce a generic hyluronidase and neither halozyme or alteogen are to demand the hefty upfront/milestone and royalties they got from Merck, ROCHE, JNJ, etc.
The fact that Merck agreed to paid a hefty upfront/milestone and royalty to alteogen completely shuts down your patent expiry scare tactic. Merck could go with a much cheaper biosimilar Hyluronidase in europe right now and start the trials. Instead they are paying very similar fees to Alteogen for their hyaluronidase compared to enhanze. This shows that that the halo’s business model is safe and sound.
Yes, alteogen is competition but halozyme is best of bread and by far the number one in this category. The fact that alteogen is sucessful in getting a couple of deals recently actually validates halozymes business model and future EPS projections (which BTW are based on only existisy agreement and not dependent in future deals)
Nonsense! Look at Alteogen’s market cap and compare it to Halozyme. Look at their earnings and comp it to halozyme. Look at the number of agreements for their ribozyme and compare it enhanze.
By any sensible benchmark comparison, Alteogen is tiny compared to halozyme of course unless you are a perma halozyme-bear.
Remember that alteogen’s hyluronidase js not a biosimilar or generic priduct. It’a oatented.
On one hand you say you are worried about patent expiry and biosimilars and on the other hand you say alteogen is great big threat. You can’t talk from the both sides of your mouth. If biosimilars are a threat then alteogen is doomed as well since anyone can introduce a generic hyluronidase and neither halozyme or alteogen are to demand the hefty upfront/milestone and royalties they got from Merck, ROCHE, JNJ, etc.
The fact that Merck agreed to paid a hefty upfront/milestone and royalty to alteogen completely shuts down your patent expiry scare tactic. Merck could go with a much cheaper biosimilar Hyluronidase in europe right now and start the trials. Instead they are paying very similar fees to Alteogen for their hyluronidase. This shows that that the business model is safe and sound.
Ye/, alteogen is true competition but halozyme is best of bread and by far the number one in this category. The fact that alreogen is sucessful in getting a couple of deals recently actually validates halozymes business model and future EPS projections (which BTW are based on only existisy agreement and not dependent in future deals)
Merck is not using Halo’s RHUPH20. They are using alteogen’s. This is well established. Even Helen has said this in previous talks.
They are in phase 3. Whether halo will make patent claim or not, Helen said they are looking into it.
Either way, it’s irrelevant to the EPS growth. Halo has fantastic EPS growth all the way to 2030 based on existing partnerships. Halo is the best-in-class and has 90% of the market. Who cares if there is a tiny competition in Korea.
You are entitled to your opinion. However, It hit a 52 week high on 5/16. Most people would not consider that “stuck in a channel” as you claim.
Also, I like how your “channel” keeps moving. Not too long ago it was $30-35, then $35-40….
Just had a 10% hair cut this morning from the recent high of $46.16. Don’t be surprised if it resumes the up trend and hits new 52 week highs into the June catalysts (CIDP Pedufa date, etc)
* …with Alteogen
Many including myself have faulted Helen for the inability to deliver on the three deals she promised for 2023. However, to blame the Merk deal with ALLERGAN on Helen, shows a superficial understanding of halozyme and the nature of its exclusive agreements. Helen could not have signed a deal with Merck on Keytruda even if Merck wanted to. BMS had already locked up this class of therapeutics with Opdivo.
Halozyme Price/Earnings Ratios
2023 Actual
17.53
2024 Estimates
12.74
2025 Estimates
10.38
2026 Estimates
7.76
Forecast P/E Growth Rates
Growth 2024, 37.6%
Growth 2025, 22.67%
12 Month Forward PEG Ratio
0.49
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios
With high CAGR And phat profit margins, it will easily trade at a PE of 20-25 soon. This would be more consistent with industry peers and with conservative valuations. Slap a couple of new deals (especially HVAI) on this baby and it will trade at PE of 25-35
“Shares are currently trading at a forward P/E of 11.9X for the current fiscal year compared to the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry's P/E of 24.1X. Additionally, HALO has a PEG Ratio of 0.5 and a Price/Cash Flow ratio of 13.8X. Value investors should also note HALO's Price/Sales ratio of 6.5X.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/value-investor-1-stock-could-134012206.html
I wonder if you will move the goal post again. When we were in low 30’s you predicted we will be in 20’s for a long time. Then you said we are range bound in the 30’s. Then your “range” move to $40-45 with an upper limit of 45.5
I rather go with fundamentals than gut feelings. With 2024 PE in the low teens and a sustained CAGR of around 30% through 2028, halozyme is still a bargain even if Helen failed to deliver on new deals in 2023. I shared this thesis on this board when we were in the 30’s and it has proven correct. Helen still has not produced new deals or any hype and yet we are about 50% higher. This is due to fundamentals. If you want to call 50% gain, “range bound,” go ahead. I’ll keep enjoying my gains!
… don’t forget that the equity market typically predicts such catalysts and acts accordingly. Don’t be surprised if we have a significant run up ahead of the new partnership announcements.
general timeline for pharma collaboration deals:
1. Technical discussions and due diligence (1-3 months):
- The parties engage in in-depth technical and scientific discussions to understand the technology, product, and development strategy.
- They conduct due diligence on each other's capabilities, intellectual property, and regulatory status.
2. Term sheet negotiations (1-2 months):
- Once the technical discussions are completed, the parties begin negotiating the high-level terms of the collaboration, such as the scope, financial considerations, and key responsibilities.
- This involves back-and-forth negotiations to align on the mutually acceptable terms.
3. Definitive agreement negotiations (2-4 months):
- After the term sheet is agreed upon, the parties proceed to drafting and negotiating the detailed, definitive agreement.
- This phase involves extensive legal reviews, negotiations on contract clauses, and aligning on the specific language and provisions.
- It's not uncommon for this phase to take several months, as the parties ensure the agreement covers all aspects of the collaboration thoroughly.
4. Regulatory and other approvals (1-2 months):
- Depending on the nature of the collaboration, the parties may need to obtain necessary regulatory approvals, such as antitrust clearance, before the agreement can be finalized.
- This additional step can add further time to the overall negotiation process.
Overall, the entire negotiation process from initial technical discussions to the final, signed agreement can typically take 6 to 12 months, depending on the complexity of the deal, the degree of alignment between the parties, and any regulatory or other external factors that may affect the timeline.
It's important to note that the actual duration can vary significantly based on the specific circumstances and the diligence and efficiency of the negotiation process.
For Enhanze deals, there are no antitrust considerations or regulatory approvals needed for a new collaboration. Helen said they have completed “technical” talks with several potential partners and are into “term” sheet negations. This means we are 3-6 months from getting new partners. Possibly 2-4 months since “term”negotiations might have already been going on for a while before Helen’s quarterly update.
Really?! That’s how you as a moderator address a poster on this board? To call his mother?!!!
Nice work. Thanks for the informative post. Keep em coming.
They can’t use a competitor’s rhuph20 in the US. Not until 2027.
Helen: Several potential new partners have moved from “technical” discussions to “terms” discussions
“Terms” discussions is the last stage per Helen.
Continue to be impressed with earnings growth, and profitability on existing deals.
It remains an incredible deal. 2024 PE of 11 and PEG of 0.48 https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios
20-30% CAGR all the way through 2028.
However, Helen has failed to deliver on new deals and unless there is a MEANINGFUL update today, the BOD should bring a new CEO and IR.
Share price will likely jump 20-30% with a new CEO announcement.
Mitchell Kapoor
H.C. Wainwright
Buy rating on 05/07/24 with price target $50.00
Bristol Myers Squibb on Monday said the Food and Drug Administration has accepted its application seeking approval of an subcutaneous formulation of its blockbuster cancer drug Opdivo.
The Princeton, N.J., biopharmaceutical company said the application covers Opdivo co-formulated with Halozyme's Enhanze drug-delivery technology across all previously approved adult, solid-tumor Opdivo indications as monotherapy, monotherapy maintenance following completion of Opdivo plus Yervoy combination therapy, or in combination with chemotherapy or cabozantinib.
Opdivo, which harnesses the body's own immune system to fight cancer and generated more than $9 billion in revenue last year, is currently administered intravenously.
Bristol Myers said the FDA has set a target action date for the application of Feb. 28, 2025, adding that an FDA green light would make Opdivo the first and only subcutaneously administered PD-1 inhibitor.
Even with positive news, Helen managed to underperform XBI today!
One third of the way through 2024 and she is yet to deliver on the deals (3) she promised for 2023.
How long will this BOD tolerate this? We need fresh leadership.
Halozyme can do so much better with a stronger C-suite.
Roche subcutaneous OCREVUS one-year data demonstrates near-complete suppression of clinical relapses and brain lesions in patients with progressive and relapsing forms of MS
04/17/2024 | Briefing.com
RHHBY
Roche announced today data from the Phase Ill
OCARINA Il study (S31.006) of OCREVUS (ocrelizumab), an investigational twice-yearly, 10-minute subcutaneous (SC) injection. Results showed near-complete suppression of clinical relapses and brain lesions in people with relapsing or primary progressive multiple sclerosis (RMS or PPMS) which reinforce the potential benefits of this investigational formulation. Treatment with OCREVUS SC led to rapid and sustained B-cell depletion in the blood. The data will be presented as an oral presentation at the 76th American Academy of Neurology (AAN) Annual Meeting taking place April 13-18 in Denver and has been recognised as an abstract of distinction by the AAN scientific committee. Updated, longer-term results showed that OCREVUS SC injection (920 mg; n=236; both treatment arms [OCR SC/SC and OCR IV/SC]) resulted in near-complete suppression of relapse activity (97.2% had no relapse during the treatment phase) and MRI up to 48 weeks with an ARR of 0.04, and most patients having no T1 gadolinium-enhancing (T1 Gd+) lesions and no new/enlarging T2 lesions. These lesion types are markers of active inflammation and burden of disease, respectively.
What clues have seen you for Selatogrel being used with rhuph20?
What clues have seen for Selatogrel being used with rhuph20 ?
Price/Earnings Ratios:
2024 Estimates
11.63
2025 Estimates
9.31
2026 Estimates
6.83
Forecast 12 Month Forward PEG Ratio 0.47
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios
From Akos on Yahoo:
“J&J reports Q1 sales of darzalex , $2.692 billion up 18.9 percent year over year.
24q1. 2.692
23q4. 2.55
23q3. 2.49
23q2 2.43
23q1. 2.26”
The top 5 science research-related stocks in 2024, as of the latest data available, are:
Biomarin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BMRN) - 43.0% 5-Year Average Annual EPS Forecast
Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO) - 25.0% 5-Year Average Annual EPS Forecast
Incyte Corporation (INCY) - 22.5% 5-Year Average Annual EPS Forecast
Genmab AS (GMAB) - 19.7% 5-Year Average Annual EPS Forecast
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) - 19.0% 5-Year Average Annual EPS Forecast
These stocks were chosen based on their forecasted earnings growth over the next five years, with a focus on those expected to grow EPS by an average of at least 9.5% per year over the next five years.
Again, please provide the date for your post on this board when halozyme was in the low 30’s and you (as you claimed) posted about buying halozyme.
Yeah, right! We all believe you. Would you please share to the date of your post when you indicated you were buying some in “low 30’s”? BTW, a retrospective post of saying you bought in 30’s when the stock was already hire would not count.
My prediction of triple digits was incorrect. I own it. It was predicated on three new deals, one of which was supposed to be a major innovation with high-volume auto injector.
This is exactly why I am critical of Halo’s management. They did not deliver on what they projected. You don’t seem to be able to process that an investor can be simultaneously expecting more of a management and yet think that the underlying technology is of a greater value than the market gives it. This is exactly why halo was cheap in low 30’s. The permabears were predicting it was headed to 20’s. It did not.
My point in many of my posts has been that even without new deals, halo was and is cheap. It won’t go to 100’s without new deals, but it can easily reach 50’s and 60’s with existing programs based on it’s PEG , PE ratios, growing profit margin and EBITA.
Last time there was a bunch of doom and gloom posts in agreement of each other by our three perma-bears on this board, we rallied from 30’s to 40’s. Prior to 2023, we saw that same phenomenon with the 2 perma-bears. Each time the numbers of their negative posts in agreement with one another went up, we rallied from single digits to teens and teens to 20’s and so on. Let’s welcome this overtly bearish sentiment, it seems to signal a new rally in halo.
“Evil”?!!! Who said anything about management being “evil”?!!!
I’m sorry you regularly resort to hyperbole and see everything at such black and white extremes. This kind of emotional thinking is not how wealth is created.
It is perfectly reasonable to ask for more from management when they don’t deliver on certain promises (e.g. 3 deals for 2023). It is also reasonable to lean on them for selling (as opposed to buying some) shares when many including the management opine that the stock is undervalued.
Despite these shortcomings, a reasonable investor can also simultaneously appreciate the underlying successful technology that has made Halozyme highly profitable and a EBITA growth machine.
Just because they failed on a some fronts, it does not make them “evil” or “self-destructive.” It just means they can do better. Even the best C-suites make some mistakes at times. Best case scenario they learn from their mistakes and worst case scenario, investor can push (or at least express a need) for a change in leadership (I for one would be happy with changes). However, none of this makes the management “evil” or the underlying successful technology “un-investable” as you claim.
If you thought this way, you would have missed the recent 30% run from low $30’s to $40 and the previous runs from single digits to all time highs. Some of us were able to see the value of Enhanze despite the management failures in 2023 and loaded up even more in the low 30’s. I wrote on this board that Halozyme is a cash generating machine despite the management (not because of it) and still believe this.
Halozyme will continue to grow EBITA and is undervalued based on the already-approved Enhanze products. The stock will be perform quite well even without new deals. However, some of us (including me) would like to see even more with new deals, insider buys and better communication.
Fantastic tweet from today:
“I ran a screener of
ROIC 3yr Average >20%
FCF margin 3yr Average >15%
Revenue Growth >25%
The top 4 Results were
1) Nvidia $NVDA
(46% / 28% / 125%)
2) Booking Holdings $BKNG
(28% / 28% / 25%)
3)Arista Networks $ANET
(51% / 25% / 33%)
4)Halozyme $HALO
(42% / 47% / 25%)”
I could not agree more.
Apparently, halozyme has hired a new PR firm to help them. But we have an IR problem as well. She does not respond to any form of communication.
am I dreaming? Are my eyes deceiving me? Did LaBarre just convert some options and held onto the shares without selling a single one? This is welcomed news. https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001159036/465f2965-ed25-4e96-9042-6b62a53e45e3.pdf
what’s going on with Halozyme’s IR? emails unanswered, voice messages unreturned, requests to speak with executives ignored, multiple new trials, and no PR. The investors deserve better.