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Looks like you called the top to the dollar! Great job, Wrinkles.
Thanks,
-Tim
Hi Wrinkles,
I see 275 on SPY as a lower area for a reversal, but would like to see it move up to 276.70 or so. There is both a daily and weekly pivot in that area, and it would also be trendline resistance if it gets there today or early tomorrow. It might not make it that far, but if it does i think there are 3 good reasons for a sharp turn from there. With the recent strength, it could be a very quick turnaround, and itd make sense to fill the gap left from last week around 263.50.
Just my $0.02...
Good luck,
-Tim
Hi Wrinkles. I'm looking to add more here as well. I sold half of what I bought last week for a quick 7% but am still sitting on the other half, now at a loss. I would like to build my position up so I'm ready for the slingshot that should be coming shortly in oil. I'll try to keep averaging down and taking profits on the quick bounces, but I prefer to get in lowish and then hold on to a decent sized position for a longer ride back up. We'll see how it goes... :)
Oil has kept moving lower but somewhere soon i think there must be a bottom that will hold and oil will make a more sustained move back to 60s or higher. I want to be on board when it starts and be able to just enjoy the ride!
Good luck to us both!
-Tim
Thanks, Wrinkles.
I'm taking an extra day off work for the holiday. You can guess what I'll be doing for the long weekend: long projects, of course. Lol. My in-laws will visit for the entire weekend and my parents will come in for thanksgiving dinner. My father-in-law is great at projects around the house so he's helping to frame a closet in the guest room.
The full list:
-tonight and tomorrow: install new oven (arrived yesterday, just in time for the big bird!)
-do patches to plaster and refill the swimming pool
-put in fence for dog run and install dog door
-frame closet in guest room. If time, install flooring after closet complete
I should be ready to come back to work after all that! Lol
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
-Tim
I bought some uwt in 15.60s. Thinking it starts moving up from here. If there is a quick bounce and i can make 10-15% or better on the day trade I'll probably sell and look to buy back lower; otherwise this is meant for a longer hold.
Good luck, and happy Thanksgiving to all!
-Tim
Thanks for the comments, Derek. I also am not using money that I need to access/use anytime soon, but it's long term investment funds and seeing the amount I had go down 50% overnight was disconcerting. It seemed like avging down was my only strategy, but the concern raised of possible problems for the etn make that troubling. In the end, I didn't feel like there could be a failure or acceleration event based on what the prospectus says, which is why I decided to more than double my position yesterday. It's just back to one trade, one decision at a time and try to be rational in spite of emotions, etc. This is all we can do.
I just sold a good chunk of what I bought at 3.01 in the 3.60s, so made back at least a good part of the loss. I'm hoping for another bounce in NG to get back in with extra shares again, but I obviously was too early. I didn't want to hold the supersized position through the report today anyway since I think there will likely be a volatile response today. I still have a larger position than normal, so if NG keeps falling without looking back, that's ok too.
Good luck to you,
-Tim
I averaged down more this afternoon. My avg is 4.60, way too high for comfort and I'm holding a MUCH larger position than I would normally carry. I hope it will be a happy ending, otherwise I may have to call it quits on trading and just put money into something less volatile. Was doing ok this year, but this is killing my acct. I imagine others are in same position, so good luck to everyone that's tied up in the dgaz disaster.
-Tim
I don't know that margin calls will hurt the issuer, only the investors. Im guessing VelocityShares probably will make a fortune on this. It's the investors that get screwed...
I did buy more dgaz in 4.30s. Hopefully we'll get back to where we were yesterday at the close fairly quickly. Not sure what to expect though. Looks like pure price manipulation to me, nothing to even blame the spike on that I am aware of.
Good luck,
-Tim
I looked at the dgaz prospectus to see what the conditions are for VelocityShares to effectively close/halt the fund. Not sure I am using proper language, but I believe this is the key criterion (language copied from the prospectus):
"It is possible that the ETNs may be accelerated due to a fall in the Intraday Indicative Value to 15% or less than the prior day’s Closing Indicative Value for such series of ETNs and your investment will be lost before the scheduled maturity of the ETNs"
This means the price would have to drop 85% or more in a single day to trigger the "acceleration event." There are other criteria for an acceleration event (lots of legal descriptions), but this is the one related to collapse in the price.
Hope that this will help alleviate concerns over failure/closure of dgaz. I believe this is accurate, but If anyone has a different understanding, please share info from the prospectus to clarify what other conditions would allow them to shut down the etn.
-Tim
DGAZ - ouch!
I sold uwt when it went down further in the afternoon yesterday but held the dgaz, thinking it couldn't go much further down--boy was I wrong. Trying to decide if I want to buy more pain or just wait and see what they do with it.
-Tim
Thanks Wrinkles. Same to you!
Great job on this morning's dgaz trade, btw. Wish I had been in on it with you!
-Tim
Bought dgaz yesterday, 1/3 position, and added to bring it to a full position this morning. Unfortunately I missed the pre-market trade this morning but was still able to buy near the lows.
Oil was similar, just adding uwt here. If oil closes much below mid 58s today, though, I will put a hard stop in and wait until it clears that level again, or look for quite a bit lower entry. It seems to me like a do or die time for oil at this level, so I won't give it much space before dumping. I'm not posting much since I have a couple deadlines at work coming up and way too much going on at home.
Happy trades!
-Tim
Oil just doesn't seem to want to move... I sold half and will hold the rest. Hopefully I don't get clobbered after the weekend! Also will sell dgaz position for the weekend. After a huge jump today into nosebleed territory, it only backed off a little, and seems reluctant. It feels like Pivot's expectation of one more bounce to higher highs could be spot on. Thanks for sharing his comments.
We are into the rainy season in TN. We knew already that we need to replace the roof on the new house but this morning we sprouted a leak to prove it. Lol. I'm heading out early to meet my wife for late lunch and then make calls to get quotes. Several other projects for the weekend as well: finish flooring in upstairs closet, replace valves in bathroom, and put in fencing for the dogs in back yard if there is a break in the rain. There's more too if I have time, but that will probably do for the weekend.
I just closed dgaz @ 9.18. That will cover part of the roof anyway. :) Computer off now and out the door.
Have a great weekend everyone!
-Tim
I joined on dgaz. 8.67. Oil to the moon, and natural gas down the drain! Lol.
Talk about overbought, wow. Should be good for a quick trade at least, hopefully an epic reversal on both oil and gas.
Good luck to everyone,
-Tim
I think we'll almost certainly see a reversal within the next $1 range. ~59.20 is both a daily and weekly pivot so I'm taking a small stab right here. There is also the low 58 area that I mentioned yesterday that would be a long term trend line. I'll stop out quickly (again) from this buy if it keeps heading lower. Good luck to us.
-Tim
I stopped out of my uwt earlier at break even. Will look again for another entry lower. Looks like it could drop below 60. A reversal around 59 or just below would form a trend line going back to Feb 16. This looks like it may be in the cards at this point.
-Tim
Sorry to hear about all the hassles. I'm sure you'll get the insurance mess worked out. It's just a shame we often have to spend so much time to get something taken care of that should be automatic. Glad you have the health issues under control though. That's what's most important!
-Tim
I think we're there/very close. I added back uwt at 25.07. Had my finger on the trigger about 20c lower but wanted to see one last pop down on the 15min. But good enough for govt work! Lol
-Tim
I agree. If it had pulled back from the 2800 level this afternoon, it could have been the start of something larger. It seems risky to hold tvix or uvxy overnight at this stage though.
I sold my uwt for a small gain. I was expecting oil to start moving after the post-report dip, but it doesn't seem to want to reverse jhst yet and I don't want to hold overnight with the uncertainty of the market. Hopefully we'll get better prices tomorrow.
-Tim
In uwt at $25.58. Will bail if it starts dropping further.
-Tim
The oil inventory report was this morning. Crude inventory is up 5.8M barrels vs predicted 2.4M. This will give at least some temporary downside. I plan to buy some uwt shortly, after the dust settles a bit. Don't think it will go much lower.
-Tim
I've only been on this board a very short time, but from reading your posts I have found you to be a fantastic source of information and a very impressive trader, as well as an upstanding individual. I obviously don't know you well but will certainly miss reading your regular posts and suggestions. I wish the very best to you, and I hope you'll still share your thoughts here with at least some regularity, even if not making many posts each day.
Thanks for all you have done, and God bless!
-Tim
Thank you, Wrinkles. I had seen you post that you expected the market to head south, but i dont think i ever saw your rationale, and didn't remember what your expected timing was.
My feeling is the current administration (any) has the ability to prop things up at certain times to help keep the best opinion possible at key times (elections), so I don't expect a big turnaround before Nov. Seems like the market is starting to hit some bumps though. It will be interesting to see where it is headed in any case.
I really respect your opinions and suggestions and take them into account for my trades, but I always take full responsibility for my investments and make my own decisions, and I would never try to blame you or anyone for a decision I make.
Sorry if I ask questions that you've recently addressed, or even multiple times. I try to keep up with the board but don't always have the time.
Happy trades!
-Tim
Hi Wrinkles. Do you think s&p will just be volatile for a while, up and down, or are you expecting a sustained drop? Not sure with elections around the corner if it will move down much, but afterwards it seems like we're overdue for a correction.
We got moved into the new place and have the other house sold now. There are boxes to the ceiling in a couple rooms, but we're getting organized in main living areas. I have redone the flooring in most of the upstairs, 3 br's and the hallway. One to go downstairs, plus a large closet. Hard living in a construction zone... It does give one something to do though! Lol. Not much trading lately, but looking for good opportunities. Doing well with a fxi put, in and out a couple times for 2-3x gains so far.
Happy trades!
-Tim
Thanks for the input, Wrinkles. Trying to get a couple trades in where I can...
We moved almost all our furniture to the new house over the weekend. Our closing on the previous house is on the twelfth of the month and I'll be traveling Oct 2-10. My poor wife will be packing boxes while I'm away and sleeping on a futon. I'll sure be glad when our move is finalized and just be able to relax a bit!
-Tim
Hi Wrinkles,
What are your thoughts on oil? Are you holding dwt?
Thanks,
-Tim
The ng report thus morning was *very* bullish. The forecast storage was for an increase of 64 bcf but actual was only 46 bcf. Last week was 86. It looks like ng price is nearly topped out for the day, but I think it may continue to rise a bit off such a bullish report. Just my opinion, but it's rare for the forecast to be so far off. The difference tends to only be 1-5 bcf one way or the other.
That said, I bought dgaz back in the low 17s for a quick trade.
-Tim
The NG contract rollover is today or tomorrow, I believe, which can cause strange things to occur in dgaz pricing. It doesn't always happen, but what I've noticed is that often the price of the new current month contract will tend to adjust to the previous month's price fairly quickly. The Nov contract is 2.6 cents lower than Oct, so if this occurs with the current rollover, NG price will move up a few cents, causing about a 3% drop in dgaz. I am expecting the Henry Hub NG price to move back to 3.07 to 3.08 in the next couple days based on this. If others more knowledgeable about the futures impact on pricing can give addl info, it would be helpful. I wanted to give a quick heads up anyway and hopefully spark some discussion.
-Tim
Thank you Sendme. I will watch the video at some point. Im going to print out your post so I don't lose it since I have no spare time for the next couple weeks with upcoming travel for work and moving. I appreciate you sending this.
-Tim
Very nice! Away from it all, but you can be in one of the greatest cities in the world in just a couple hours. You've got a great setup.
Best,
-Tim
Beautiful place, Wrinkles. I love the all the trees and hills around you. Very green and lush looking. What part of the country are you in?
-Tim
Thanks for the detailed response Sendme. It will take me a little while to absorb everything you wrote, but I will spend some time going over it when I have more time and will look at several charts to make sure I understand. There may be a few more questions on the way. To start:
What is the momentum indicator you mentioned using? Which indicator do you use and what settings?
Thanks,
-Tim
Thank you, Wrinkles. Now just trying to keep my head above water until our move date. :)
What's your take on ng now? I sold my dgaz down to a 1/4 position on Friday so I was not holding large quantity over the weekend. Im glad I trimmed it back. I'm thinking ng will go to 3.04 to 3.05 range here, then turn ??
I'll hold what I have if it doesn't get over that level, and am thinking about adding more close to 3.05.
-Tim
Good morning Wrinkles, and everyone on the board.
Glad to be back in the office today so I can get some rest! Lol
My wife and i have had our house on the market for a while so we can downsize now that 2 of our kids are out of the house, and 1 nearly so. We got an offer a couple weeks ago and the close was set for only 1 month out. My wife always seems to watch what is on the market and saw a house about 2 months ago that was in foreclosure proceedings and listed for short sale for a really low price. We had gone to look at it then and thought it wasn't in too bad of shape. It needed some remodeling since it was outdated but the structure seemed good and it's in a really nice neighborhood. At the time, we thought it would be nice if we had a contract already, but we weren't in a position to buy, and we just thought someone was going to get a great deal.
After we got our contract about a month or 6 wks later, I looked to see what was going on with it. After doing a little digging, we found out the short sale didn't go thru in the time limit set by the bank it was being auctioned by the bank on the courthouse steps...that Wednesday! I went to the auction, and it turned out I was the only one there bidding on that house, so we ended up buying it just over what was owed to the bank.
Long story short, we are doing a lot of the remodeling ourselves. I spent all weekend prepping and laying flooring upstairs. Exhausting work, but very gratifying. We expected to have our house paid off within the next 10 yrs, but this will be ours free and clear with extra money in the bank after our 1st house closes in October!
Sorry for non-stock babbling, just glad to sit for a few minutes and breathe... lol
-Tim
Glad you like it, Sendme. I think it's a great platform and community, and there are a lot of features I probably don't even know about. I did do a little programming for a feature I couldn't find, and like that flexibility. Being able to tap into functions others have developed is also great. Almost any strategy or function you might have read about has been programmed by someone, so it's easy to do specialization of your charting.
BTW, I have been looking at some previous posts and saw your 0.786-.886 retracement strategy. I like it for being a very clear and sraightforward approach that is easy to follow and it does seem to work a good part of the time. I didn't understand how you select your target price, however. Could you give more details?
Thanks,
-Tim
Good luck! I feel like we should have a decent turn here but it needs to start moving to keep me at more than a smallish position. I don't like to wait too long for a little cushion of initial profit. Im at full load+ currently.
-Tim
Added back the shares I sold yesterday. If my keeps going up from here I'm all out. Very short leash...
-Tim
Thanks for clarifying, Wrinkles. Really appreciate your sharing so much.
-Tim
Did you mean 71.20-71.40 for the resistance level? I don't see it at 70.20-70.40.
Thx,
-Tim