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KINS Let me know if anyone needs a new knife set. I've been catching them falling all morning accumulating a now oversized position. Could the volatile trading down be because the company is selling shares in the open market to raise capital?
KINS Doubled down on this weakness
IPW Thanks for the tariff reminder. I'm going to pass.
IPW Got credit facility renewed and has come down to earth from recent spike. Thoughts whether this is a good play into earnings this afternoon?
KINS Back in at 11.53. recognizing that the forward diluted EPS cannot be calculated with precision, what do you think is a fair PE ratio for a small cap insurance stock? Also recognize that PE ratio is only one way to come a current valuation.
EPM in with very solid numbers yesterday despite the headwind of low natural gas prices. Still trading below $6 so dividend which they've paid regularly for years still exceeds 8%. IMO this should be a great steady Eddie in a toppy market.
FTCO Just keeps gradually ticking higher. A Trump administration significantly increases the likelihood of securing the additional mining permits they're seeking sooner. Also, IMO a Trump administration will cause gold prices to continue to increase as a haven mitigated the risk of the uncertain impact of new tariff and tax policies. Also, last time around Trump wasn't a reluctant deficit spender although this time Elon's government efficiency initiatives might help offset Trump's deficit driving tax cuts.
BMY Sold on big pop this morning because it's had a great run and dividend yield now less than 5%. Bought more ARREF at 1.22 which is yielding around 9%. Persistent selling keeping the price down but seems like a great candidate to pop eventually, and you get paid while you wait.
BRY Got out yesterday at the open at 5.75 so feeling very lucky even though I never thought it would tank like it did. I thought the report was encouraging in terms of their refinancing and operations, but the chunk of their SH base focused on the high dividend baled and punished the share price. I'm retired and living off my IRA, so my investment focus is on 5+% dividend paying stocks for longer term holds and "event driven" stocks (upcoming earnings or acquisition targets) for shorter term holds. While BRY is tempting as a bounce back value play, it could also languish as an equity trap like VTLE where the bottom is hard to pick.
CCEL Their IR really sucks so it's hard for investors to assess the sustainability of the dividend. If they touted their recurring revenue and how it increases every quarter even when sales are down because so few clients stop paying their cord blood storage fees, then it could trade up to 12.50 and an 8% dividend yield. If they don't do anything to help investors understand the sustainability of their cash flow and dividend, it may not trade much over $10.
EMKR Hmmm They were offered 3.80 per share and took 3.15 instead? Think the higher bidder and plaintiff lawyers for the SHs fight this in court. I need to decide whether to sell now for a decent gain or hang in there for a potentially bigger one.
TTEC Reported bad results and eliminated dividend causing stock to tank to 4.78. CEO owns majority of shares and is working through a going private transaction for 6.85 per share equating to a 43% return. He can drive the outcome with his controlling interest, so I bought more today to lower my average cost. Obviously there's a risk the transaction fails for lack of financing or another reason, but it's not like they'll be any surprises during due diligence since he founded and runs the company. Seems like a good risk/reward to me and some portfolio diversification with stocks that rise and fall in this increasingly frothy market.
CCEL Yeah nice to see it pop despite the market's delayed reaction. Nice $ gain for me but of course not nearly as important as boosting me in PSL contest! Unfortunately, high flying CURI's disastrous Q and plunge today hurt me way more. At least I don't still own CURI in real life.
BRY I was wrongly focused on whether they could maintain the dividend which was probably never in the cards as part of a successful debt restructuring. Trading up some premarket, so I'll look to sell today for a modest gain.
CCEL Trading around $7 which is a 14% annual yield on their newly announced .25 quarterly dividend. They have approximately $25 million in recurring revenue from annual storage fees customers pay to keep their cord blood specimens frozen and only 8 million shares outstanding so $8 million in dividend payments annually is very sustainable IMO. I'm wondering whether Duke is dumping their shares since CCEL just initiated litigation with them and that's putting a damper on a price rise. Over the coming weeks I think it's a good bet the stock will rise to at least $10 which would still be a 10% annual dividend yield.
CCEL Note that the PR also said they're continuing to pursue strategic alternatives FWIW
CCEL just declared 25 cent quarterly dividend. That should take the stock to at least 10! Buy some premarket!
MHO Researcher--Regarding O&G stocks being value traps driven by the price of oil, think the same could be true of homebuilders driven by interest rate trends? With rates trending up now, I sold MHO at a small loss as I don't see a near term catalyst for the sector to rally. Also, homebuilders don't usually pay dividends unlike some O&G stocks where at least you're getting paid to wait for rising oil prices to firm up the share price.
ETCC With the estate holding a majority controlling interest, seems ripe for a sale well in excess of current share price. The risk is the family just milks the company like the Singers would. While converting the preferreds would dilute earnings, it would add $12 million to the balance sheet.
ETCC Must have been some larger SH who was poised to sell on the news.
FTCO 5.30 Boring low volume action lately but seems to go up a few cents every day like the little engine that could.
VNDA Still holding at $5.05 cost from when first brought to this Board. It's 77% owned by institutions so management certainly being questioned/pressured about what price should reasonably trigger a sale. Buyer may still have to sweeten some, and their aggressive PR this morning makes me think they're not going away. I'm holding because I think it will trade higher on either higher offer or announced transaction at a higher price. Also encouraging that a second interested buyer made an offer which more objectively validates it's significantly undervalued at $5.
GMX Bmrboy Watched the video and seems like a classic value trap to me although could be a good swing trader. CEO has been at the helm since the 80s and has created $43 million in market cap of which he owns approximately $4 million. And while he seems honest, experienced, articulate and capable, he operates the company in a way that makes it so difficult to value and to attract analyst and institutional investor following. Also question whether there's any foreseeable catalyst to drive share price. Good luck with it though.
GLBXF Bmrboy The recent Simply Wall Street DCF analysis values GLBXF at only a modest premium to current value. Can you be more specific about the potential value of Ironwood including its timeframe. Your video link didn't come through for me.
DXYN .97!! I see now it's likely a hurricane play. Sold way too soon.
ARREF Reported very solid Q3 operating results yesterday ahead of Q3 financials. Surprised share price hasn't gotten more of a boost. Still think this one should trade up from here.
PRGO Thanks for the heads up Skillz. Added it to my dividend portfolio. If Trump wins as favored in the betting markets, I think Pharma stocks (especially vaccine heavy) will get creamed as Bobby Kennedy changes how prescription drugs are approved and regulated. Industry lobbying will be so intense that Trump may end up neutering or firing Bobby, but still a risky hold into election IMHO. Demand for PRGO's products should get a tail wind if prescription drugs (especially with dangerous side effects) are deemphasized in the next administration.
VIX Regarding shaky markets, VIX up over 17% today. Hweb, is your portfolio strategy (lean in vs. lighten up) influenced much by significant moves in the VIX or not really?
IPW Thanks but wasn't along for the ride. Played earnings which didn't work. Doubled down in the $1.20s then sold it all for negligible gain. Find the action curious given how circumspect management was about prospective revenue growth.
IPW Why did it crash yesterday? Move down seems unrelated to yesterday's fluffy PR re Chinese partnership.
ELTK Noticing the very heavy volume that's getting it whacked on no news. Not sure whether to make anything of that.
TTEC I'm hanging in there because the CEO owns a majority of the company and presumably therefore controls the Board. Next step will be to form a committee of "independent" (non executive) Board members to hire an investment bank for a fairness opinion. Wouldn't surprise me to see that result in a modest increase over $6.75 ($7?) purely to help "legitimize" the final share price in the event of SH litigation.
OT Skillz you must be sh*tting your pants watching the Mets now
BRY I own it but think issuing a PR solely for the purpose of "reaffirming strong liquidity position" would be like me posting on this Board "I don't lie about my trades". Seems like they could make that point in Q filings, analyst meetings, conferences etc. I'm hoping the price weakness is because institutional investors are sector rotating out of O&G and BRY is getting particularly slammed because of its 90% institutional ownership. The hedges should protect their ability to preserve the current dividend for the near future. Predicting O&G prices longer term is way above my pay grade, but if they crash the story ends badly with dividend cut and potentially inability to refinance debt. But I think it more likely the dividend holds and the price doubles over the next 6-12 months-- and you get paid while you wait.
The dockworkers strike was one reason I sold INSW.
UNIT 5.84 Another big day yesterday. Unfortunately I sold too soon.
BRY Added at the end of the day at 4.995. Clearly the market doesn't think they'll be able to sustain the dividend. They have $400 million in 7% unsecured notes due in February of 2026. Maybe they won't be able to refinance before then or will have to do so at an onerous rate. Or maybe as the Fed lowers rates and the debt markets become more borrower friendly (and BRY manages its business well), they'll maintain the dividend, announce a refinancing and the share price will fly.
ETCC I initiated a position today for an earnings play
INSW Sold for breakeven except for some dividends. Was seeking more industry diversification in my dividend portfolio but international shipping is seeming increasingly risky given wars, higher tariffs, global economic slowdown etc.
ADFJF PR says "some" of the announced "new" contracts already included in July 31 backlog. More like "newly announced" instead of new. If the subject contracts drove a material increase in the July 31 backlog, they probably would have updated it. Pretty lame PR IMO. Seems intended to staunch the recent price slide. If that's the best they can come up with, think it could hurt more than help.