Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
While I'd suggest a 6.6 billion dollar market cap for a company with a negative 32 million dollar book value is mind bogglingly absurd, I clearly have no idea what is driving the percieved value here so there is no reason to think I'd be right st this level either. But hey, if we can have a Trump v. Clinton presidential election maybe the whole world is running on 3rd grader logic now? Haha
I think another missing piece of the perception is the nature of the credit facilities. A lot if investors may view this as a stamp of approval or credit worthiness. In reality those loans are only going to be made because they will be secured ahead of current bondholders so the banks have almost nothing to lose.
And rising... perhaps the mistske in my approach is that I read the financial statements while most technical traders don't. This company has no book equity. And they aren't necessarily safe from bankruptcy yet because we have no idea what the debt covenants for the new revolver will be. What's worse is that in order to survive the near term they had to give away their long term recovery potential in divestitures. I exoected a small market cap increase but this has reached an emotional point.
Was that information made public somehow? Have a link to a press release or something?
This line of logic has never made sense to me. If the stock has been going up for two weeks the odds that it is running out of momentum and due for a decline should be incrementally increasing. I understand there was some good ish news here but i don't see any justification for a price above 650
Holy irrational enthusiasm batman! I'm not sure I've seen a company leaking cash and equity this fast ever expand market cap so rapidly.
Only question is how hard this crashes and whether its on monday or Tuesday.6.70 is not a sustainable level for a company with 0 book equity in a depressed industry and a string of consecutive losses.
SWN owns about a quarter of its assets with equity. CHK has almost no book equity remaining. There is no reason to believe a going concern risk exists with SWN. We currently feel CHK is safe because of the new lending agreement but there will invariably be debt covenants they will be on the threshhold of violating. Most all revolving credit facilities include capitalization ratio language - which they'll be offered a ramping period to get in compliance with. Asset sales won't help this issue. Only profits will. So CHK is rightfully suffering a discount for going concern risk. And it will come back with a vengeance if q3 isn't significantly improved.
It was almost as if Reuters intentionally misrepresented the comment. The jist of the comment was that no one would stick to a production freeze even if they agreed to one. Whole market is greeb today too. Should see a nasty snap back from both the larger market conditions and oil price in the short term.
I've had friends who had similar experiences but no one "loses" their shares. Sometimes it doesn't show up in your trade station if pink sheet isn't supported but you still own the shares and if you call your broker you can probably get then transferred to a broker who does.
Not dissappear, they might sink in price (speculatory), or get delisted and go to the OTC market. But shareholders equity isn't liquidated until they hit chapter 7 (liquidation). Whether your broker will show your shares on your account or not varies. Some won't show your shares of OTC stocks.
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/190.asp
Not confident a bankruptcy filing would change much at this point. Chapter 11 and chapter 7 are very different. An operation of that scale had potential to create shareholder value as long as their doors are open and commodity prices are in flux. Like someone here said earlier, discount for going concern risk is already built into this thing. A chapter 11 filing doesn't mean fire sale liquidation necessarily
And of course us following the NBI/IBB. Since ARIA announced they would be presenting at the conferences they've tracked the indexes pretty close after you adjust for the speculative premium. PPS is just down because the whole index is today mostly.
Aria has fallen very proportionally to the IBB and NBI. Only lost a bit of ground compared to the indexes it tracks. A lot of the current price is caused by macro factors. Instability at the level of the federal reserve threatens to massively shrink market capitalization and risky bets are the first to get funding pulled with higher interest.
There's nothing of interest going on until data comes back from some of these clinical trials.
Does Arial track the IBB or NBI more closely? Appears to be a strong correlation to both.
I'm normally not one to buy theories of manipulation, but on option expiration fridays, there is plenty of reason.
It's all the short term speculation that pumped it up. Bunch of day traders hoping to make a quick 20%. Time is money to those types and they won't leave capital tied up without promise of short term gains.
I don't get it. We turned down a low ball offer and the share price drops 3 dollars below what the offer was? If the offer was worth more than the company this thing would be sold.
10 billion? That's 5 times what we were offered? That would be like 50 dollars a share...
Strong finish. Especially on a day when the Nasdaq biotech index lost almost 3 percent. Lots of latent rebound potential here when the index turns north again this week/month/quarter. Especially as buyout talks progress.
Our options are at the top of the OPR market this week.
Yesterday's run was caused by the rise of the Nasdaq biotech index fund, which we matched point for point. Today's trading is among the first major deviations from the fund overall in weeks. We've been steadily losing inches relative to the fund overall but this is the first time we've seen a substantially different trading pattern over a short period of time in a while.
While we are largely moving along with the biotechnology index, we are losing ground relative to the rest of the index. Comparing our peaks and valleys over the last month we should be about 60 to 80 cents higher right now.
What is the best case timeline for 113 approval based on the data we have? Conversely what's the latest we expect ear results?
We're just tracking biotech point for point right now. We could use some news, it's been real quiet around here lately.
Perhaps not to the wise, diversified investor. To the young gun like myself playing a risky game with a volatile security with almost no hard assets outside of IP, terrifying is appropriate. Now how likely is this to be about bankruptcy - low. That's a worst case scenario that we shouldn't be close to. These guys also specialize in IP management, product liability, private equity, and a variety of other standard corporate legal issues aside from M&A or bankruptcy. I'm just saying the possibility scares me a little.
The terrifying part is they're also nationally recognized for bankruptcy representation. Is it a home run or a pop fly in the bottom of the 9th? Maybe we'll know monday
Many in this board consider MM price controlling postulations to be akin to wild conspiracy theory that hold little water when analyzed. In order to tank or spike a price one has to buy or sell stock at prices that are less favorable than what the market is dictating. More often than not this is a losing strategy even if they can manage to trigger stop losses.
My point was that if someone is buying an option position someone else is selling the counter position. Sometimes these price levels can be telling. When an OPR spikes that is a telling sign of a directional move but simple buying and selling of positions at equilibrium prices usually doesn't mean much. Options exist primarily as insurance anyway.
Every buy is also a sell lol
Yeah you aren't kidding. We're tracking the biotech chart almost point for point today. Obviously with more exaggeration since we're high beta.
So does someone know something I don't or is this making no sense today?
Wow that's an impressive point differential between calls and puts. Bordering on levels that make arbitrage possible almost.
All indications point to greece tanking the market again. We all know what that means for high beta growth securities in the absence of news.
Moral of the story is never lend money to idealistic socialists. GLTA
That or an EU nation just told the rest of the world they're perfectly comfortable defaulting on half a trillion dollars (bluffing of course), and fear of the credit market drying up has caused widespread panic among any and all companies who rely heavily on debt equity.
But the world won't let that happen. We can expect them to kick the can down the road again this week for a few more years.
Well that is one of the strangest 5 minutes of trading I've ever seen. It was almost like someone just accidentally hit "buy" instead of "sell" on a 400k share trade then reversed it at a .40 cent per share loss. Makes no sense.
Today's chart has already pulled a Bruce Jenner. Should be a fun day.
You very well may be right there. Probably a factor in HB getting booted.
I'm not suggesting he was performing the experiments himself. If I were to take a guess, though, I would imagine he was probably spending a good amount of time reviewing results ad working with the lab on the significance of their findings and what follow up to be doing. Which is, in my humble opinion, a good thing if you are a CEO trying to make your company a long-term player. You have to be an expert in your field. That is a riskier proposition at this point than cashing out on what you've found and running, though. Which is what I think we all expect within 6 months now.
He was the founder and undoubtedly still involved with the science. He obviously wasn't in the lab every day, but I can't imagine a doctor who founded his own pharma company just completely let that side of the business go to sit in board meetings all day.
I'm not saying HB was going to get the product to market any faster, but he was planning on continuing with the pipeline development in a way I don't think a non-scientist CEO can. In other words short term buy out is the only reasonable path now. Trying to go it alone long term now will only get us outpaced - more so than we were before I feel.