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"One more thing, what do Entremed charts say?"
They tell me that you can be boorishly atagonistic yet totally predictable at any price level.
Of course, JMVHO....
Best Regards,
Syndi
Galt:
That's an interesting notion that I had not considered...
<g>
Best Regards,
Syndi
Quicke TA Update:
With apologies to Ken Lassen, for my deliquent response...
As mentioned in previous posts, VOLUME will lead the way. Has it ever. My prior posts are still primarily valid, although we added one more sideways leg in June and early July. The pullback from the move up landed right on top of my linear regression channels, right where you would expect (if things are going well) and is now bouncing hard off of it to the upside. Watch for a breakout over $3.14 (that sustains) and the volume with it (which should increase quite a bit, on average).
The stock is poised to make noise right here if it solidly breaks the $3.40 posted back in April.
JMVHO.
And to think, all of this without the slightest bit of news. (Don't worry, fundamentalists, the 'reasons' will come forward at some point, rendering my voodoo worthless again... <g>)
Best Regards,
Syndi
reason4:
It's about what you would expect. Sleepy.
Coiling and filling and moving sideways. Nothing of note at the moment. We are still maintaining weekly upward momentum (barely), but it's a mixed bag, generally. You nailed the key, though: volume. Watch closely for the next pick-up in volume - it will provide the clues we need to go along with the patterns that exist.
Best Regards,
Syndi
vk...
I find myself a bit nervous now, realizing I understood what you were saying completely...
Best Regards,
Syndi
I guess I know where I stand....
MORE importantly, my a$$... <g>
"Anyway the attack on Moberylane as belonging to the world of Yahoos, and questioning his reasons for posting, recalled that era
"
I think you should re-read my post, friend. I didn't attack Moberylane. I did not say he, particularly, belongs in yahoo land.
If you will take the time to read first and post later, you will see that I openly welcome well-reasoned bearishness. There are reasons a plenty for that point of view. However, I lost money and I'm mad and disappointed is not 'reasoned' IMO, just ranting.
(btw, Moberylane, I appreciated your personal timeline history...)
Best Regards,
Syndi
Moberylane:
I am honestly trying to understand your purpose in posting on a public message board.
In saying that, I don't believe everyone has to be bullish. In fact, reasoned bearishness is welcome. However, saying 'what's the point' of the transfer of information seems to me to be neither - it's just pure cynicism and serves no purpose. Belittling curiousity because you have lost money or had your hopes dashed or whatever the reason is out of line, IMO. Either jump on the bear train or jump on the bull train. (We say that saying a bit differently in my neck of the woods, if you know what a 'pot' is...)
This board was created for an open exchange of ideas...your recent posts seem more suited to the world of the yahoo's...
No offense....
Best Regards to you,
Syndi
TA update:
I'm sorry for my MIA status the past few months. Thanks to all of you who were looking for me (and a special shout-out to all those who could care less... <g>)
The chart is in a not so surprising resolution to the strong move up into year end. We have reached appx max Fibonacci retracement from the 04 bottom into the late 04 top. The current pattern is one we are familiar with, one that I dare not mention lest it somehow jinx the outcome, but suffice it to say that it has something in common with the President's nickname. A resolution of this pattern, both daily and weekly appear to be eminent. Hopefully to the upside and as usual, volume increases should be the order of the day. The long term chart has suffered no damage as a result of the pullback, IMO. The stock is still digesting the past 2+ years of activity and this is a laborious, methodical process that will test even the most bullish patience. As Paul Simon said, 'there must be 50 ways to leave your lover'. Seemingly, there are precious few reasons for most to stay, but CELG and Orbimed seem to possess such reasons. (but why listen to them, they are only 1. one of the most successful biotech companies of the past 5 years and 2. one of the most highly recognized biotech venture groups in existence- what the hell do they know? Don't they read the frickin' NYT? Don't they know AA? Anyway, I digress...)Such patience in the face of the sands of time is difficult for most, but is a part of all preclinical biotechs...ALL of them. I do like the chart here. Perhaps the market will cooperate and perhaps the small cap bio group will awake from slumber. ENMD is basically flat the past year. The Dow up about 1.5% and the SP up about 5%. Even so, we have fared better than most other small cap bio's even with the recent dilution 'tragedy'.
Buyer beware. JMVHO.
Aaron:
Good grief, what a typo it is!!!! Yes, NOT one of them...
and to think I proofread the darn thing 3 times...sheesh...
ElN?
Perhaps.
If so we probably should be buying up all we can get here. Here is a link to ELN's site on Nano-crystals. Only 2 products shown using the technology and Tysabri is one of them.
http://www.elan.com/DrugDelivery/drug_delivery/nanocrystal_technology.asp
Further (thusfar), the 2 cases of PML are only in cases where Tysabri was used in combination with Avonex (interferon beta 1-a).
No cases have been found in mono-therapy with either drug. (It just appears right now to be a negative synergy issues, not anything to do with delivery)
However, I am no scientist or Dr. (or frankly anything of importance....<g>...), just a simple guy with a simple mind...
I will try to post some more thoughts about the stock this weekend. Is it just coincidence the decline and the volume with it has begun stalling around the PP pricing? (past history would say definitely 'no'...)
Galt:
I hope that it really is accumlation going on. The i-watch does look quite clear right here. (However, as a caveat, I have never been able to develop any reliable way to use the darn thing in real life...) My previous TA suggested that a very short term top was in place, and now, in fact, we have retreated to some fairly important levels of support. The 50 dma is pretty obvious in the charts above. In my own work, some important linear regression levels coincide with that basic area as well as some other custom averages. It isn't surprising to see a bounce. As usual, the character of the volume will guide us to the likely resolution of the pullback. Today, thusfar, has offered no clues other than more of a dry up in sellers, IMO. No damage, other than in the very short-term, has been done to the chart at this point.
I believe the next step in the adventure will be challenging and robust. As such, a pause of some length, before such an assault is to be expected. I can't help but believe that the underlying message in today's hiring is very positive. But, then again, I'm a glass half full kinda guy...
Caveat emptor!
Best Regards,
Syndi
TA Update:
Groundhog Day: Haven't we been here before?
If somone were to take the charts of Late Winter 2000 or Spring 2003 and this years chart and remove the prices, you would have to wonder if we have seen that before. If you took away the names of the drugs (minor detail), you might wonder if the musical backdrop and buzzing hub-bub of fundamentals would be accompanied by none other than Sonny and Cher in the background! <g>
But, more likely, we find ourselves in a new day, with the freshly fallen snow on the ground wondering 'what do we do next'. I guess the answers are easier in the days when everything stayed the same and you are always looking in the rear-view mirror, a state that I believe has affected many long-term holders of the stock. Just like lovable old Charlie Brown, we don't want to see Lucy pull the ball away from us, finding us flat on our backs, again. (yet, we can't help ourselves, can we?) Enough of the pop culture philosophy, Syndi, where the heck are we?
It is difficult for me to provide targets for trading at this juncture, as my systems have been honed for targets of long-term nature. But, clearly, we find ourselves reaching the levels of highly overbought on most daily type charts (not so much on hourly, though). I suppose a case could be made here to take some good trading profits off the table at this level, were one inclined to trade. It has been a fairly easy double right here, if you were paying the slightest bit of attention. In fact, it simply could not have been more obvious after the PP, which would have yielded a very heft profit, despite the 'investment smack' that abounded at the time. I certainly would not argue against such profits and/or loss cuts below the current price.
The macro juncture is quite a bit more interesting, though. I love the long term chart, as I have suggested in previous posts, I suppose if were possible to 'love' a chart that had a decline from 101 1/2 to 0.80. A very distinct pattern is being finalized right here and now. The next logical move in it should see a retest of the 2003 high at $6.53 and then we carefully consider the 'what next' scenario. I find it likely that some chopping around in the 6.50 to (dare I say it) 10 range to be next. However, a blow through the 6.50 level on a massive volume day (as I have suggested before) could make the chopping left to Ronco. It is quite possible folks. However, in the world of 6 minutes of attention span, you might forget the methodical nature of the dance, just to be caught in the end without a chair when the music stops.
Caveats abound, not the least of which is to never mistake that you are on your own out there and my observations are just that, observations and not advice. While TA is a big part of my every day life, TA on ENMD is more of a hobby. I don't worry too much, though, there are any number of posters who will gladly tell you that such methods and devices are created from the very guano that runs through my veins. This is a frickin' micro-cap biotech company in trials, and 'where are they gonna get the money??' and 'dilution sucks!', and so on and so forth. To which, I respond, 'As you wish'.
So, as dear Chauncey does, I am here and watching. I hope we win.
Best Regards,
Syndi
Past posts.
It's a dangerous game, depending how far one wants to go back and look.....
However, most recently, take a look at my post, 1448 (which was mocked by the half-empty crowd). Interesting...
Also, for your review, 1389.
Not breaking my arm here, just pointing out that things are developing as expected according to the charts, and long before the news hits.
That being said: TA is bullsh!t! Long live TA!
Best Regards,
Syndi
moberylane:
Consider this my final answer to your ill-informed and snide comments: Yes and Yes, but not yet - by a long-shot.
Best Regards,
Syndi
Dilution 101
It is amazing the simply ridiculous view of PP's by some of you.
Moberylane's assertion that "One must stretch his imagination to the very limits, to imagine dilution as positive development" is one based in no fact, whatsoever.
I suppose, based on this, that the founders and collective shareholders of Google were streched to the limits by their recent IPO, which increased their collective values many-fold. Thousands of other examples abound. In the case of ENMD, which has been subject to questionable capital market decision making in the past, the 'horrible, dilutive' investment by CELG two years ago has more than tripled the value of my investment. Whoa is me!
How would one expect any company such as ENMD to continue to function without access to the capital markets. It is in fact the reason the whole massive industry exists! (Shh!, everyone don't tell Goldman how bad they hurt everyone they work with...) My merciful heavens!
I am no sunshine pumper. I call it the way I see it. I posted facts from the previous PP's, which in fact show that great opportunity exists after funding is received.
This kind of drivel makes me want to rethink my desire to post in a public forum.
Best Regards,
Syndi
haod:
you are, indeed, a broken record. However, dilution is inevitable for an early stage biotech. You act like it is the black plague. Without it, your 200 shares would be worth 0. And to call it it simply a matter of 'survival' is painting the glass empty, IMO.
As far as 'lower and lower prices', that is simply false. That being said, there is no excuse for the prior management group to have squandered the opportunity to raise multi-millions when the iron was hot.
At the end of the day, there is still a TON of upside potential with the current number of shares outstanding. TONS.
Enjoy your winter crops, read my 'Holiday TA' and relax.
Best Regards,
Syndi
Recent History of PP's:
Just as a reminder of the behavior of stock price after PP's of the past two years:
1/02/03 Celgene deal - $1/share. Closing price prior day: $0.86. Closing price on day of news: $1.20. 30 days out: $1.04 60 days out: $1.01 90 days out: $1.28
04/25/03 PP @ $2.50. Closing price prior day: $2.87. Closing price on day of news: $2.52. 30 days out: $3.30 60 days out: $4.23 90 days out: $4.00. Low during first 90 days: $2.14 on trading day 3. High during first 90 days: $6.53 on trading day 31. Biggest decline from day before trading at any point during the first 90 days: -25.4% (trading day 3). Highest return (same criteria): 127.5%. High to low in first 90 days: $4.39 or 153%.
05/20/03 PP @ $3.00. Closing price prior day: $3.74. Closing price on days of news: $3.10. 30 days out: $4.55 60 days out: $4.39 90 days out: $$3.28. Low, first 90 days: $2.70 on trading day 60. High during first 90 days: $6.53 on trading day 13. Biggest decline in first 90 days (based on closing of day before news): -27.8%(trading day 60). Highest return (same criteria): 74.6% (trading day 13). High to low in first 90 days: 123.6% (using 2.92 as low, trading day 1)
The risk reward post PP has been excellent the past 2 years. We shall see this time.
Best Regards,
Syndi
Holiday TA:
Where are we and why?
The latter is usually a mystery to me, until we are so far in the rear view mirror that knowing doesn't do a darn thing for you. Charts are certainly suggestive of impending fundamentals, the basic tenet of an equity being that of a leading indicator. Ted's list is pretty spot on insofar as possible developments go and who knows for certain (and who wants to?!?! - personally being Martha's bunkie doesn't appeal to me)?? Enough chit-chat and down to the turkey...
The current rally, now retesting, has been in the works for many weeks, IMO, perhaps dating even to late August. The first 'wave' of this monster was the 'inexplicable' October 11 move, retraced and then revisited on October 20. This led to a sideways consolidation of over a month with a new 'inexplicable' rally beginning on 11/26 through 11/30, followed by yet another retest and consolidation ending on 12/9. Volume that was completely out of character for most of the year was featured in all the spike up days, culminating (thusfar!) with a monster blowout day of over 12 MILLION shares, or about 70% of the total float in one day, just shy of the nearly 13 million share explosion of 4/24/03. Big stuff. The April 03 rally was from appx 1.08 to 4.19 in just 2 days, with a subsequent decline to 2.14 causing many to declare 'popcorn fart' status. But by 6/09/03, ENMD sported 6.50 plus, in total, top to bottom, a nearly 650% rise. Why the history lesson? I think one could argue right here that ENMD has been making a gigantic bottom of something over two years. The fits and starts of 03 could most certainly have some bearing right here, could they not (in my charting North Pole)?
Bottom line is this, in my most very humble opinion possible: the stars could be aligning for the re-emergence of ENMD. Look at weekly chart in a very condensed since IPO form, and you will see a wide and funny looking W bottom being made. Ever crucial: How do we handle the 6.50 level? A solid break of this level could yield surprising targets. That could take months even years, right? Yes. The left shoulder took 10 months. The up move (of the middle of the W) took 2 months. The down side of the W(with a long, long rest)took 14 months. The right and final side has been in development for 4 months now. So, six months or more to right side completion is reasonable, but not necessary. A move up on the right side could come at any time and will likely be shocking. Twice in the history of the company (publically, anyway), the weekly volume has been just over 65 million, 1998 and 2003. Watch for that, sometime. Many of you know that some of my long-term systems have been suggesting big numbers are possible. That has not changed. It is just slow go. They may never happen, ever. So goes predictive systems at times.
I like the stock here. I own it. I don't know why <g>. I believe the reasons will be clear when they become available.
Whether some of you like it or not, I will disclose that the above is for amusement purposes only. Just humble opinion.
I'm out now for most of the Holidays. I might check in if cycledude gets lucky again (JK!)...
Happy Holidays and Best Regards to all....
Syndi
Wow...
Charts have told the tale lately (ie, where's the news on this?). This is what we were looking for, to be sure. Let's see how the day ends!
Best Regards,
Syndi
TA Update:
Clearly, what i had suggested aa a possibility one month ago, has taken place.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4534888
The stock is now on both short and intermediate term buy signals for the first time in months.
The action here is promising and the volume is suggestive of good things ahead. (so much for early October being 'manipulation'?)
I still see $2.70 as a hurdle that we need to overcome, as per this post:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4257667
We are somewhat overbought in the very short term. However, not so at all on the weekly.
I will provide some more detail later...
Best Regards,
Syndi
Today's action:
Orchardsal, I couldn't say for sure what was up with today. I don't think it was just MM games...it seems too dramatic. It's more likely something to do with year-end, etc. The range from $1.80 to $2.40 is one we are likely to stay in for a bit. A break of either with big volume would be significant. I like today's big volume on the recovery. That is most definitely worth noting! Someone is there to buy up stock that becomes available. We bounced right off the 50dma and stayed above the 25 dma, which should be our trendline. Things have definitely improved this fall on the technical horizon. Maybe next weeks CC will flesh out some more fundamentals.
Despite the antagonistic attitude of some on the board, the technicals have been fairly predictive for this stock, even though it is a low-priced micro cap.
Best Regards,
Syndi
Quick TA update:
Interesting times...
Watch for a couple of key levels here..
$2.39 - $2.41 and then the critical 200 dma right above around $2.50.
The volume internals on the stocks have been impressive lately...very impressive.
Usual disclaimers...
Best Regards,
Syndi
Short interest
IMO, this is a positive development, particularly at these price levels. 1.5 mm is still plenty to get a good fire burning, but not too much to be strangling. Much as I would like to see it differently, the short sellers in ENMD have a much better track record than the longs. They are covering...I like it...
JMVHO...
Best Regards,
Syndi
Moberylane
Thanks for your comments. I'm glad you enjoy reading my comments. I guess you are a fan of 'fiction'... <g>
We have discussed this matter at some length before. I agree with you somewhat. I think it is generally difficult to assess thinly traded micro-caps with TA. As I have said on numerous occasions, a certain 'grain of salt' mentality applies. However, to say it does not apply to ENMD is wholly inaccurate, IMO. I did not 'predict' yesterdays move one month ago, nor did I claim to. What I did say is that it was within the scope of the analysis I did one month ago. Read it again and see if you disagree.
I think your views on TA are somewhat misguided, generally. 'Predictability' in the way you suggest the term is something I find quite hilarious, frankly. 'Logical movements' is another. The idea that the market has 'logic' on a day to day or even week to week basis has no basis in fact. Frankly, I don't really employ 'day to day' type technical analysis anyway, but rather try to identify situations where the odds favor either being long or short and in doing so trying to mitigate the 'UNPREDICTABLE' and 'ILLOGICAL' moves that cause losing trades. It's hardly infallible, though.
I will say this again, though, my observations are just that. They are for discussion and entertainment purposes only, not investment advice. On that mark, you are certainly taking it to heart... <g>
Best Regards to you...
Syndi
Moberylane:
You seem to have an affectation for 'marking' my posts. I guess I should take that as a compliment. Frankly, I completely understand your dismissal of TA..it's not for everyone. However, I would say that I have always tried to be objective technically on ENMD. Not doing so would be illogical. I feel no need to defend my work. It is what it is and it's not advice, just observation. Simply ignore it and me as you wish, it really doesn't matter to me one bit.
You could be right about your analysis. It's as good a guess as anyone. Frankly, I don't give a sh1t. Contemporaneous history does me no good at all.
Like it or not, my observation one month ago has turned into a very profitable trade, some 40-50% depending on when you entered. And just imagine, it was done without explanation or reason!
Right now, I couldn't say whether we go higher immediately right here. The stock is a bit overbought on a very short term basis, but basing your opinion on after hours trading in a micro cap market is laughable at best, IMO. You could be right and still not prove a thing.
Best Regards to you.
Syndi
Interesting
This move fits within my analysis from a month back, but isn't as orderly as one would expect, which should be expected... <g>
Clearly, the volume and move suggest something is afoot, real or perceived.
IMO, the key 'technical' level is $2.70. A break above this (THAT HOLDS!!!) would make things very interesting, indeed...
Usual disclaimers apply!!!
Best Regards,
Syndi
Haod:
You probably will never get rid of me for good...
It's just too hard for me to leave with all the suspense surrounding your garden..(maybe a new reality show - Haod's garden?) <g>
The general lack of interest here is worth noting...
The situation the ENMD faces is no bed of roses, but not as dire as late 2002, either, IMVHO...
That being said...TA on a thinly traded microcap stock under $2/share is more than likely folly....
Best Regards-
Syndi
TA update:
Don't pass out in ENMD land, but for the first time since May, something worth writing about and noting has occured. Granted, it isn't front page news, but it is a subtle change in character that should at least be noted.
Today's upmove represents a break out of the 50dma which has been like the Great Wall of China on this stock for several months after collapsing through it for the last time on 4/28/04. We 'sniffed' it a bit during August, but it firmly rejected us at the $1.70 level.
Today, though, we "blew" through it to close near the highs of the day at 1.68. Volume is still anemic, but 210k now represents about 50% more than the 90 day avg daily volume.
So, what does it mean?
Well, for the first time in months we have a legitimate short term buy signal. Folks, this isn't the sell the farm and jump in signal just yet (which may NEVER come!). However, after having all 3 indicators (short, intermediate and long) go negative and stay that way for almost 5 months, it is certainly of note. Long term and intermediate signals are fully in sell mode as of this evening and the current move is not close to threatening a change in character of these. They remain well above us at this juncture.
What to expect?
Wish I knew, for sure, but first things first. It is imperative that this break out hold. How many 'Charlie Brown' moments have we already experienced??? (a trillion, or thereabouts, I think) Could there be another? (darn straight! see: Lucy) If(and I mean IF!) we do so, target levels exist all the way to the breakdown at $2.70 (also the 50 week ma). There are numerous levels of resistance between, but the volume was pretty anemic between here and $2, but after that, we need to be sporting some much larger numbers to worry the short side.
As always, do your own DD. This is opinion and not investment advice. I will happily provide you a list of 'times I was very, very wrong' to help you understand more fully what I am talking about, if necessary...
Best Regards to all...
Syndi
TA Update:
Well, things continue to deteriorate technically and while we are massively oversold, it appears that the $2 level is likely before a move in earnest. Without fundamental news to support the stock and a very bearish small cap environment, the path of least resistance conintues to be down. The falling knife will kill, if one isn't careful (or maim ruthlessly, at least!). As I have stated before, the strongest possible caution is advised at this juncture! Significant developments on the fundamental front, when and if they occur, could bring about the price movement we need to change the current negative bias. With no disrespect intended to dear Dr. Haod, it is just this type of 'throw in the towel' mentality that is being revisted, as it was in 2002/early 2003. However at substantially higher levels with far more opportunity than that time. However, we find ourselves, again, at the gleaming bowl of the Roman vomitorium. Watch what you eat right here....it could haunt you. On the other hand, get it over with and move on?
I'm out for a couple of much needed weeks of R and R. Perhaps a more colorful and optimistic allegory will be in order at that time.
Usual disclaimers apply.
Best Regards-
Syndi
P/C Ratios:
marcpw...I use the total number. There are many arguments back and forth about such, but at the end of the day, readings over 1 are very, very rare and tend to be right at important junctures. It's a tool, though...not the whole machine.
Link to historical data:
http://www.cboe.com/Mktdata/datahouse/pcratioarchive.xls
Intra day:
http://www.cboe.com/MktData/default.asp
Best Regards-
Syndi
Put/Call ratio unimportant?
Frankly, I think it makes a lot of difference. During all of 2001, there were only seven days with a ratio greater than 100 (most of which were after 9/11). There were only six days over 100 during 2002, 3 of which were sequential at the October low. The number of days over 100 have become numerous in the market rally and recently in March we sported 4 straight days right at the bottom. What it indicates to me is a change in atttitude/bias of investors. A few ugly days and the market becomes panic stricken, very much unlike the ugliness and stubborness of 2001/2002 when the sky was 'truly' falling and no one seemed concerned to hedge. That is a major behavioral change that is far more indicative of a significant bottom - not top. Sure, it could continue to be ugly for awhile, but with the oversold condition and high 'panic' levels, I think the risk could be more muted than it would appear. Most everyone's indicators are on full hedge alert - mine included. I don't like being on the same side of the boat as everyone. It seems too pat right here to imagine a cascading down market, though I am tactically positioned for such. IMVHO, surprises are far more likely to the upside right here. As you know, I don't particularly subscribe to your theory on the overall market (as I responded on RB). It's really hard for me to look at 1982-2000 as one bull market. 1987 and 1994 and 1998 were much too painful and brutal, though nothing like 2000-2003.
Anyway, just keep your cash crops rolling and you won't have to fret about the market - you are not too old to become the tomato czar of Florida.
Usual disclaimers-
Best regards-
Syndi
TA Update
Where are we now?
Well, the week was disastrous on a technical front - no two ways about it. A breakdown of essentially all formerly important support levels that have held for over one year now.
Because of the nature of the spike up during early 03, there really are no true 'support' levels as the stock never spent any real time churning and testing the levels from the spike up from a buck. The initial breakdown 'forecast' I did suggested levels around $2.25 or so were possible on this move. That definitely could happen. There is no way to really tell what happens here as we are in 'uncharted' waters. One could argue for anything from $1 to $2.50 with equal conviction/evidence. I think the former is highly unlikely, as the news simply isn't all that bad (though disconcerting) and the latter more likely as it represents the PP pricing from 04/03. Ultimately, it will just be a matter of balancing the buyers and sellers at some point and we will see. As I had stated last week, IMO, we are on full defense, and as all sports fans know, one rarely scores on defense. Last weeks weekly candle is particularly troublesome and we complete another daily 3 outside down pattern on Friday, making the week appear to begin on an ominous note. However, we are extremely oversold and panic selloffs are likely to be accompanied by scalp trader buying and some level of short covering.
So, when and how does it change?
IMO, a successful retest of $3 for a number of days would render the short-term positive again. On the intermediate term it would require $5 (as previously stated, perhaps on RB?). That's tough sledding. But as all longer term holders of the stock know, it doesn't pay to try to catch the falling knife. Ample opportunity exists when important levels have been reached. News could be supportive at any moment as well, though I think this has diminished with the change in leadership at the company. Even in the most bullish posture, the timeline has been disturbed.
I'm out of time this morning and will gladly answer any questions. Haod - I'll get to your market question at some point. I'll say this quickly, though. Put/call ratios are off the charts again - just like the end of March. Multiple 100% plus readings. That doesn't happen at tops... JMO...
Ususal disclaimers.
Best Regards-
Syndi
NO!
We don't need any more rumors, LOL!!! I was just saying that these options appear to be related to compensation, not termination. DS options are the longer term type that you expect with someone who will be with you for a long time, while NC's are structured for departure.
Sorry for any confustion.
Best Regards-
Syndi
NC options:
In reading the filing, I see no evidence that NC exercised his options at the grant date. They are marked 'exercisable immediately', but that does not meant he did so. These appear to be performance related. DS was also granted options. 50,000 with 25% exercisable in one year and than another 1/4 each ensuing year. Likely this was some similar arrangement with NC, but with his departure, vesting was granted currently and not prospectively.
I still believe that a new CEO name will surface soon. My guess is that the choice has been made but cannot be made public at this time - probably because of the persons current employment situation/contract. But that is just a guess.
Best Regards-
Syndi
Haod-
Whether 1 penny or 1 dollar, a breakdown is a breakdown. It might not cause major financial damage(though it could), but discipline suggests that full defensive tactics be in place. The chart is now short, intermediate and long-term bearish (weekly chart). Yesterday's candle pretty much sealed the fate and today's increased volume cinched the deal. I'm looking for a move to around 2.50-2.55 before a bounce. Bounces at this point have to be considered with a jaundiced view until certain levels on the upside have been taken out to remove the bearish posture. I will try and post a more detailed TA this weekend.
Usual disclaimers apply!
Best Regards-
Syndi
Billy-
Thanks for the kind words. I'm used to having my neck 'out there'! However, I hope all the board readers will do there own work and look upon my 'analysis' with casual interest and as something to stimulate discussion, not trading strategy.
Since we don't have any spam(thanks to Lothar!), perhaps you could appropriately 'exorcise' my technical posts that go awry...it would probably keep you busy!!!
Best Regards-
Syndi
TA update:
Today generated a type of a very short-term buy signal on an STO divergence. It can be seen clearly on the chart(above the price chart) in the header as the late March price low and STO reading was surpassed by a new price low (yesterday) and STO reading was at a higher level. This is 'confirmed' by a higher close today. These divergence type buy signals can be tricky, in and of themselves and can experience multiple fits and starts before trending. Continued rising prices from here with some higher volume, such as today, would further confirm the short-term. Today's candle pattern is also indicative of a change in direction. Right now, I would view this only as a 'bounce' from the mission critical level of $2.70 (anyone scalp a trade in here besides me??). For now, it held, thank goodness. I would hate for a fresh new board to be mucked up with full bearish readings! It's still very early and things are still a bit painful, but recovery here could help the weekly situation quite a bit - a weekly positive close (above $3) would be huge, given the circumstances.
JMVHO...usual disclaimers...
Best Regards-
Syndi
Moberylane:
I think there is just a basic misunderstanding of what I think TA does here. The price movement alone is certainly not responsible in and of itself as the end all. TA hopes to gauge the levels of price based on the auction action of all investors, informed or not. The news of the week was the trigger for this action. The CC was weak (at best) and the news of NC's departure was surprising and done on a bad day (I still believe the GNTA related meltdown had more to do with Friday). So, those were the news items of the week.
TA told me where support and resistance were and what the behavior should be given those announcements. You could certainly decide what to do given the news of the week without TA, but would you have known that the brick wall was there around $4+ and that the critical support of $3 would be a major support? Frankly, I'm not trading ENMD. There are too many other good trading vehicles out there. However, I do add at important dips from time to time and I do sell at important technical tops/breakdowns. I also have hedged/exited the position in the past based on the charts (thank goodness!). My analysis of the fundamental news out there just doesn't help me manage my money. It helps me understand and frame my thinking (perhaps even my bias), but it doesn't help one iota in money management.
So, all in all, don't mistake TA to be the 'reason' for anything in a news laden week (it can be on other weeks, though), it's a tool to help manage the perceived risk/opportunity.
Best Regards-
Syndi
Billy:
The first thing that came to mind was the immortal words of Little Feat: "don't bogart that joint my friend" - I'll take some of what you are having...
Candidily, it would be hard to imagine this as anything other than technical failure/breakdown. However, the entire small cap bio sector got thrashed Friday with the GNTA news, so, as usual the timing was poor for the ENMD pr and probably overstated the decline. That being said, it's hard to imagine a technical rebound from here not accompanied by some big news (such as a new CEO who the street likes or who knows what else). I had posted previously that the weekly could set up for a series of divergences (it took 6 months during 02/03)but I didn't think we would this time. This is still in place as a distinct possibility. Next weeks action must be contained in the previously suggested support range, IMO, and then we shall see from there.
Best Regards-
Syndi