VIX setup. This has some very interesting ramifications if it pans out. At the very least, I would expect a bounce off of the lower channel line. Possibly portending a down couple of days.

S&P Correction? I think we run to about 1220 before this market sells off. I just cannot see the move since the August lows as anything but a correction. I guess I could be wrong and we are in the middle of a new impulse up, but I don't buy it. I think the 5 wave moves off of the low are a "C" of the correction.

S&P chart. I still think this market could rally to 1204 or so, the 50 day on the S&P. That could conclude the v of c of 2. That being said, the 2 up could be completed already and we are headed down. Targets 1020 to 1040.

Yes it did close back in the triangle/pennant. Could be we rally a bit more. I think we are either in a ii of 3 down here and could have more up. I think the market may try to close that gap down from yesterday, and test that channel breakdown from the August lows.

VIX breaking out of its consolidation/pennant. This rally should end and our down will continue unless this setup fails.

VIX look like it is going to test that upper pennant line this morning from the chart I posted yesterday. Let's see if it rallies through or pulls back.

Interesting look at the VIX. Nice looking pennant that could break up. A move above 42 and the target of 57 is in play.

Okay, here is a good one. VIX flag, a break up which it looks like it may do, points to at least 57.

I have been good. I was posting on the SI-Ewave thread, no longer interested in the opinions there. Man, those guys are always bullish and don't like anyone elses opinion.

Glad to be here, and yes I am planning on sticking around. Give me a few days to get some charts in order and if you guys don't mind, I would love to post them here. Told the guys on the Ewave thread about that head and shoulders on the S&P at 1300, and stocks like OXY and CSGP, etc and they basically laughed. So I left.

Glad to be here and hope I can add some value to the thread.

Looks like there are head and shoulders setups on the Dow and S&P over since the August low. That would coincide with the larger 5th wave down of the impulse off of the highs back in May. We would now be in the iii of 5.

I would target the 1000 to 1040 for the low.

Nice D Blows on GE daily chart. Should portend a C wave down.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ge,uu[h,a]dhclyyay[d20041115,20051215][pb50!b100!f][vc60...

Same as the S&P. Looks just like it.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=indu,uu[w,a]whclyyay[df][pf][vc60][iLb5!Lb14!Lh5,5!Li10,...

This would also mean we are in the iii of 5 of 5. Hard to imagine we have that much more strength coming up, but until the charts prove me wrong, that is what I am going on.

Even though I do not like the NDX or Comp daily charts, the weekly still looks good with this pattern. A 5th wave in process.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[d20020705,20051231][pf][vc60][ilb5!...

As far as the SP500, I think it could get to 1300 or close to it based on the triangle breakout.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[dc][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[df][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,...


Dow targets.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]dhclyyay[pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,10!...

Plex, this is how I have been playing it. Wit the breakout yesterday, I am making the assumption we are in the iii of 5 of 5 of the impulsive move off of the Oct 2002 low. I know the numbers are small, but I think you can read them.

If this setup is correct, there is a great shorting opportunity coming up in the next two months.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[df][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,....

I would not short until this triangle fails. Everything above is still a long.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[dc][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...

Head fake? These sure look pretty real to me. Targets a bit higher.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[dc][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]dhclyyay[pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,10!...

edit

If the Dow has a decent day today, this will be one helk of a candle on the weekly.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[w,a]whclyyay[db][pf][vc60][iLb14!Lb5!Lh5,5!Li10...

Put call looks like it is moving up.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$cpc,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dd][pc10!f][vc60][J9854748,Y]&am...

With all those QQQQ puts, I say the market moves up here.

Have you seen all the puts on the QQQQ's for March? I see a lot of charts that look bad, but I have a hard time thinking the QQQQ's go much below $37. 750,000 puts at three strikes, $36, $37 & $38.

Mine too. Crazy NDX, QQQQ prints.

No MC, not the BKX, I was looking at MER, but only a thought. Not really thinking it was real.

I am watching this channel closely for breakdown.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=mer,uu[w,a]whclyyay[dd][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,1...

The amount of puts on the QQQQ is at least triple that of calls for March. Should be interesting to see how that plays out.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=QQQQ

Regarding the BKX, could it be possible this is an inverse head and shoulders? I am not really counting on it.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=mer,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[dc][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,1...

This sure looks bullish to me.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$nikk,uu[h,a]whclyyay[d20001220,20050220][pf][vc60][ilb1...

I think what it does is keep long term rates flat. Everyone is screaming about rates going up. I think we may even get an inverted yeild curve.

Let's watch this wedge. A strong breakdown and that a-b-c turns into a 1-2-3 in my mind.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d7][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...

This NDX almost looks like a head and shoulders play, but I am going with the three wave correction with descending wedge. I am betting on a wee gap down or weak open, followed by a decent rally.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d5][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...

AJ, how are you deriving your $65 target for MER? I agree with it, just wondering how you got it. Near term it has a little triangle setup to $62.50 or so.

If you pull up a NDX chart on a weekly basis, it looks fine. Just a breakout back test and a three wave down. This looks a lot like the S&P chart. I agree that on the hourly and daily it does not look good. But, when in doubt, look at the larger time frames.

NDX

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[d20020705,20051231][pf][vc60][ilb5!...



SP500
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[d20020605,20051205][pf][vc60][ilb5!...

AJ, is MER one of those OEX stocks. I do not think it is, but was curious.

AJ, haven't got your opinion in a while, what ya thinking here. Sure looks like we have a nice clean a-b-c bear flag going on.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d15][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

I am long MER and short the QQQQ's via options on both.

AJ, you monitoring this bear flag, or what is your opinion here.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d15][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

Wish I had more time to stop by here a wee bit more often.

Freep, anything is possible. If the index can break back into the flag here, I think that would be pretty bullish. Right now, I just treat it as a breakdown test for now.

I definitely believe in the head and shoulders plays. I think the NDX is just testing the flag breakdown and will dump by Tuesday or so. I am not too thrilled about that because I am long some MER calls.

Does this chart show up annotated?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d15][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

S&P too. There are a ton of stocks that have this sort of look, so if they pan out, we are going to see some ugliness probably this week. I hope these are not real, but if they are, there is still plenty of time for puts. Sorry, for some reason, my charts are not showing up annotated.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhclyyay[pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,10!l....

Individual setps.


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ctrp,uu[h,a]dhclyyay[pf][vb20][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,10!l....

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=nem,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[dc][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,1....

Check this one out. That is a long way down.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ostk,uu[h,a]dhclyyay[pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,10!l....

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cat,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[dc][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,1....

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=whr,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,1....

I just found a few, but there are numerous.

AJ, still looks like the Dow has a couple of DB's. I expect some more down then a decent rally.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[dd][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

Here is my NDX read. A test of the bear flag breakdown, then another leg down.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d15][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

NDX holding tight to the uptrend line here.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d10][pf][vc60][iLb14!Lb5!Lh5,5!Li10...

This has to be considered a head and shoulder possibility.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cat,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[dc][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,1...

Getting whacked this am.

AJ, can you update me on Les's cycles, I do not follow them. What are they saying?