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Pleasantly surprised price is recovering before inauguration
Historically, a change in presidency introduces uncertainty into the market, which the market does not like. Our little CDMO seems to be holding up a bit, HOPEFULLY. Finicky is the operative word here.
GLTAL,
Joe Six-Pack
CLAY... he's pulled back into his mountain cave...LOL
Take care, Stone.
Joe
That $3 million dollar bet intrigues me...
Ol' Joe Six-Pack still here from days gone by...
Yep, that 228,200 block is a head-scratcher.
Obviously, a 'tute, but why now? If we're anticipating a pull-back, why the 3MM bet.
I don't get it...oh OK, sure, long-term bet. Still, funny coming right at this break out. Why not wait for a pull-back....
GLTAL
Joe
"Buy and hold....forever." Warren Buffet
I NEVER SOLD A SINGLE SHARE
Greetings to CJGaddy, Threes, Horselover, golfho, and all the old-timers from way back.
My last message on this board was 4/11/2018. HERE IT IS:
Wook, you'll be back, bro'
Yes, ol' Joe Six Pack here, and I HAVEN'T SOLD A SINGLE SHARE.
Such is life. I've always quoted Warren Buffet's best advice ever:
KT, EBITDA is earnings BEFORE interest taxes depreciation and amortization, NOT after.
Your numbers are wrong. So is saying Avid is worth just steel tanks, setup, and design with single use state of the art tech.
No, no, no. Avid has Federal approval and a clean Federal audit record. THAT is where the value is. The CDMO space is very valuable and growing rapidly. You re right that EBITDA is not based on sales, but your numbers are not in line with EBITDA. Your numbers are NET NET earnings.
Best, Joe
Lias' presentation can calm the Ronin-bears
20x EBITDA? And projected Avid earnings $100 million? Whoa.
That's 2 Billion right there and gives a share price of $44.
Not "astronomical", but likely to turn a few frowns into smiles.
Lias' slide #4 states sale of IP offers "potential upside for stockholders."
More observations:
1 - Myford has capacity to go to (9!) 2000 liter tanks (slide 15). The "butterfly layout" can handle it. Double whoa. Obviously, if AvidBio runs (9) 2000 L tanks, the stock price won't be 4 bucks.
2 - A quick look at the BOD short bios (slide 10) shows 5 CEOs and an EVP. Why have they chosen to sign on at CDMO? Why?
3 - The CDMO sector is consolidating and the last 2016 estimate put it at a $62 Billion industry. Probably $100 billion in 5 years+ as biopharma moves increasingly to biologics.
Now, wouldn't it be funny if the real shareholder value comes from an industry buyout of AVID and not Bavi?
Really. The Big Boys will find it easier to bring a stand-alone CDMO into their house, then build one themselves. Buyout. Avid Buyout. It could very well be the long-term plan. All along.
Build it up, then sell at a premium.
It all adds up to shareholder value. Ronin has serious skin in the game. Take a deep breath. We're moving in the right direction. Big time.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Geo, IP worthless yet everyone wants to steal it
Everyone here says Bavi works only in rats, Bavi failed this trial, Bavi failed that trial...
Nobody wants Bavi. No BP wants Bavi. Nobody will pay a dime for Bavi.
And yet. So much intrigue. Robbers around every corner. Under every bed.
All for a placebo that is worth nothing.
Hmmm.
Best,
Joe Six
Geo, where's the cash for Avid to buy anything?
They're on FUMES right now. One trick-pony. Going concern.
They just laid off 20% of the workforce.
Morale is low.
Something's up. No way Ronin threatened their bloody bar room brawl at the ASM - all for a stainless steel bio-tank at Avid.
They're all in on it, friend. All of them.
The real question is whether or not WE'VE been invited to the party as well.
Best,
Joe Six
Sun, JBain, 4our, lots of M/A chatter...
I tried to put $ M/A on Tek's list, but it got canned.
The ONE analyst on the latest CC asked a question about...
Avid M/A!
SK and Lias are both mentioning M/A and Avid in the same sentence.
What gives?
In my view, it could be clear.
Avid has been up for sale since SK and the old BOD tried to pull a fast one on us and sell it outright. Ronin tipped us off, saying it was a BAD DEAL for shareholders.
What about this possibility: The major BPs want both Avid and the IP. There was NO WAY they were going to deal with the rat's nest of crooks on the old BOD. No way. So Ronin forced the old BOD to resign, and a compromise settlement hammered out.
Now major BPs have a new BOD to work with who are adults and who don't wear black ski masks. So let's do business.
GILD or Novartis wants the anti-PS platform for their CAR-T safety. We all know this.
Everyone has been downplaying this at PPHM, both old and new Boards. And of course they have. What do you expect Lias to say? "Oh, yes, we're about to be bought out completely." HE CAN'T SAY THAT LEGALLY. But an analyst on his first CC can ask about it. And did.
I think Ronin, the old BOD, and the new BOD have known all this from the very beginning.
That's why the old BOD never defended themselves against Ronin's nasty-grams. They've been in on it from the beginning. It's quite possible the Board change was a demand from major BPs. "Get your act together, clean up that mismanagement,and we'll do a deal." I can hear the echoes in the halls of GILD's new campus.
In retrospect, I think it's all coming into view.
Regards,
Joe Six Pack
Ronin didn't sign up just for Avid
Something is going to happen with the IP.
If Gild/Kite/CAR-T goes after PPHM, we'll get a touch of volume. As in 20-30 million volume. The market will go berserk.
I can't believe Ronin's (very accurate) nasty-grams to the old BOD and their bloody threat of a knock-down drag-out proxy fight at the ASM were all for a 2,000 liter stainless steel bio-tank at Avid.
What gives? Something's not adding up here.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Lias will fund Avid with IP sale.
New BOD doesn't want to run the ATM and send bad karma to stockholders and Wall Street.
So where's the dough gonna come from? The IP!
The way to launch new branding, a new salesforce, expansion of facilities, and diversification into vectors is non-ATM cash flow.
The IP! The question is: how much?
Intriguing times ahead.
Joe Six
JamesGMS, you'll have your answer by February, 2018
Not sure people realize what interesting times lay ahead. PPHM is clearly indicating something WILL happen within the next 60 days. They're going to sell Bavituximab! After years of waiting, validation of the anti-PS platform is up for affirmation or denial.
So, we're going to have our answer.
Sounds cool to me.
Bring it.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Threes, right on.
I've seen small biotechs go from $2 to $32 in 18 months with the right team in place (check Horizon pharmaceuticals run).
We've got a CDMO winner here and a good team.
I see $64 pps in 3 years. Adults are now running the company.
The old BOD loved by many prominent folks here for so long, almost literally did us in. Thank heavens they're gone. They're almost brought us all down. Permanently.
Clearly, Ronin knew this. All of their nasty PRs before the agreement were actually ACCURATE.
Drop in revenue 50%? Not good for us short-term, but not lethal.
GLTAL,
Joe Six Pack
eb, don't worry, I'll get back on the horse
I supported the old BOD for years, too. It just puts my nose out of joint that some bellwethers out there pretend they didn't as well.
Have a good night.
Joe Six Pack
CP, historical revisionism breaks out!
Nota Bene:
POST #309838 8/25/2017
CP, many vigorous supporters of the old BOD are now back-tracking a bit
exempli gratia:
POST #309838 8/25/2017
New Board paying themselves $55,000 +15,000 per committee
The proxy spells out all the shameless GREED from the old BOD. $360,000, $330,000 and $300, 000 for Carlton, Swarz, and Pohl. For doing what?
DILUTING US INTO OBLIVION.
The proxy describes a NEW peer review process, sampling the BOD compensation of a dozen other similar biotechs, with similar market caps. They came up with BOD compensation of $55,000!
The obvious question is, "Why the heck didn't they do this peer review for compensation BEFORE?
Simple answer: WE GOT RAKED OVER THE COALS BY THESE FIENDS until Ronin kicked them out on their behinds!
And yet Ronin was vilified right here and the OLD BOD vigorously defended here for MONTHS.
Tough to believe. Boy, the old BOD got the gold mine. And we got the SHAFT.
GLTAL (finally! with confidence)
Joe Six Pack
Threes, apologize for NOTHING
You were right all along. PPHM had to cut a deal because they KNEW they were toast at the ASM if it came down to a vote.
Just too embarrassing for the old BOD to get run out of town on a rail at the ASM. Publicly embarrassing. And not a good look for PPHM with potential partners/acquirers looking on.
There's been a lot of recent backtracking here on comments made previously about Ronin. NOT a hedge fund raider. NOT a two-man demolition team. NOT selling out the IP for peanuts. NOT enemies with shareholders.
In fact, just the opposite. Years of adding shareholder value. Seasoned pros with decades of experience. Sharp evaluators of potential value and serious appreciation.
Christmas came early for stockholders this year. Great finish to the year. 2018 - bring it.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
DON CARLEONE, GIVE US JUSTICE...
Give us a stock price so we can invite you over for a cup of coffee...
LOL
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Bid, I've followed the facts and I don't understand BOD support here
What amazes me further is that the current BOD itself obviously doesn't believe in the company.
Ronin has made many, many recommendations and criticisms, and the BOD has implemented a few of them, vindicating Ronin!
A FEW EXAMPLES OF "ACTION-REACTION"
RONIN: Monetize the IP and grow the heck out of Avid. It's way under-valued, under-developed and could be a goldmine.
PPHM: Gee, we ought to focus on Avid and maybe sell it.
RONIN: Your BOD is insular, too few in number, incompetent, and overpaid.
PPHM: We need to expand our BOD and hire a great leader for Avid (who we control). Oh, and we kind of have a plan to pay people (a little) less.
RONIN: You're grossly mismanaged, you're laying off dozens of good people, you're never had a profit, and external accounting is worried about you as a "going concern x 10."
PPHM: Our PS platform potential is "astronomical." We've thrown hundreds of millions of dollars at it yet have nothing to show for it. We've neglected Avid as a result. We do have a nice collaboration with NCCN, but won't see top-line results for another 3 years. However, everyone should vote for us at the next ASM, you know, the one we keep post-poning.
Need I go on?
I still think the PS platform has potential, while Avid has tremendous potential. Under the current management, however, we will never see PS-platform valuation, even with the Holy Grail combination of CAR-T.
Sorry, but too much greed here. Everybody wanted millions, but you're gonna get 300-500K at most, IF Ronin gets in.
Use the money to buy yourself a modest, nice house, and move on with your life.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
CP, accounting still labels PPHM a "going concern"
No matter the "potential" Avid customers that may arrive, it hasn't been enough for PPHM to shake that label.
Sorry. The company is on the ropes due to severe mismanagement. BOD compensation HIGHER than Pfizer?
Not a peep out of you on that one.
Joe Six
CP, the maître d' is laughing too hard
CLEAR VALUE IN THE STOCK / Ronin-led Avid = $30 pps
Ronin's Powerpoint presentation laid it all out.
PPHM BOD themselves don't have confidence in the company.
They have no clue what they're doing.
ITEM: Going concern x 10. May be out of business soon! Our investment will be worthless. THEY SAY IT THEMSELVES.
ITEM: PPHM tried to sell Avid to continue funding their R&D cash cow (selling us all down the river in the process). THEY SAY IT THEMSELVES.
ITEM: Yet another reverse split is coming in March, 2018. They can't fund R&D without it. Avid is stalled and the Myford facility is idle. No cash flow from Avid = pending reverse split (again!). Can you believe it? THEY SAY IT THEMSELVES.
And yet we get the same, tired excuses from the same predictable sources.
The upside in all this is the possibility of a highly profitable, dynamic Avid, in the right hands. Ronin sees great potential unrealized by a BOD IN OVER THEIR HEADS. Yes, they started Avid, and GOOD FOR THEM. The current BOD is also running it into the ground!
We all know Avid can REALLY take off and finally give value to us, the shareholders. If only its true value can be realized, not plundered.
It is absolutely amazing to me that the BOD threesome pay themselves a premium of more than $100,000 compared to directors at PFIZER , the largest Pharma in the world! And yet this behavior is excused constantly on the Board.
Too much Stockholm Sydrome here on the Board. Stop being in love with your captors.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
DRY POWDER ALERT! This stock hits $10 once Ronin takes over
Nice double coming. For those with some dry powder.
I know the debate rages on here. (Not sure why, personally, as the facts as clear)
The current BOD is toast. They know it. SOME of us know it (while others are stuck in Stockholm syndrome), and Wall Street knows it (obviously).
Let's move on people! Onward and upward.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
JamesGMS, I've always appreciated your posts, but you're wrong
Today's Ronin PR was very significant.
The PPS jumped today for (2) reasons:
1) Ronin revealed its knowledge that the anti-PS platform is actually VERY VERY valuable.
2) BOD candidates such as Mr. Egan are unlikely to agree to front for an antibody "placebo."
To wit:
Current BOD will be ousted at ASM
1. Wall Street wants RESULTS.
2. Current BOD has not delivered.
3. 30% withhold confidence votes for current BOD at past ASMs, even before we ever heard of Ronin.
4. Given the publication of excessive salaries (bigger than Merck and Gilead directors), withhold votes will skyrocket at 2017 ASM.
5. We can debate Ronin's motives here quite a bit, (and many good points have been made), but it doesn't matter.
6. The current BOD will be ousted come October, 2017.
7. The only way we could get back to our dream of "astronomical values" would be a stock price of $300-500 pps.
8. Ask yourself how feasible that is, given "no skin" in the game for our directors, Myford expansion on ice, still losing money, and no reserves to advance Bavi trials.
9. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING hangs on the NCCN, head and neck trial combining Keytruda and Bavi.
10. Results from that trial are YEARS away.
11. We can debate extensively here about Ronin, but a new Board is essentially a done deal at this point.
12. Does Bavi still have potential? Of course it does. Great potential. But the company has been so poorly run for so many years, it's time to set the house in order.
13. Get the company on a solid financial footing. Of course the company has potential. UNREALIZED potential.
14. Many good posters here have "separation anxiety." I understand. But reality check. Are the trailing zeros on your online brokerage account increasing or decreasing?
15. Ronin states they are not raiders and their prior story supports that claim.
16. Yes, these are precarious times, but thats "just what the doctor ordered" for PPHM.
17. Did we need a wake-up call? YES.
18. Avoid normalcy bias. Many think Ronin will raid and sell. Others think the BOD will do a great job with Bavi in the future.
19. In reality, something different will happen. If there's one guarantee, that's it.
20. Many have used up all their patience. October is almost upon us. Big changes are coming. That's a good thing.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
JJ, agree. SK should have DEFENDED himself vigorously.
He didn't.
Ronin's charges were VERY serious, and the CC addressed precisely ZERO about the controversy.
Studiously ignored, in fact.
There were a couple of canned questions from two minor analysts after the prepared remarks.
Breezy responses. "MSK loves CAR-T, but also does PD-1 analysis."
Not good.
Better response from SK would have been:
"We fully believe in the outstanding potential of Bavituximab, and we are very, very concerned that our second major stockholder does not. MSK believes in us, but for some reason, Ronin disagrees with MSK."
BANG.
Didn't happen. Stock up sharply next week.
Best,
Joe Six
Threes, I agree with you, but the BOD may indeed get an exosomes
deal done to save their necks.
Their gravy train is in danger. Do not underestimate their desire to keep it going.
An exosome deal will neuter Ronin, because it will support the R&D side. Then Ronin can have what is SAYS it wants i.e. AVID.
PPHM says its R&D costs will fall 40% in FY2018. That's a drop from $30 million to $18 million.
Remember, an animal backed into a corner bares its fangs.
Best,
Joe Six
CP, that is the compromise that is coming
Ronin's team maxes out Avid revenues and dynamic growth, while PPHM farms out Bavi R&D to MSK and NCCN.
NO PPHM Bavi trials. Period.
Exosome test kit pays the bills on the PPHM R&D side.
Compromise all around for the Board and Ihub Board.
Probably the way it's going to play out.
Best,
Joe Six
No Bavi trials to drain Avid...why spin off?
Interesting. The only PPHM trials now are the 3 NCCN trials - and $1 million of the $2 million fee has already been paid.
As I've mentioned a GAZillion times, the NCCN Bavi-Keytruda Head and Neck trial will be the most important in the company's history.
So why spin off Avid? The argument was that Bavi R&D drains money away from Avid. But this isn't so.
I think it's to appease Ronin. Ronin may have backed itself into a corner by stating Bavi has been a failure, and what really fascinates them is Avid.
Well, Bavi has NOT been a failure.
Ronin sang high praises for Avid in its letter. Well, it looks like they're going to get it.
Before the ASM.
I'm afraid we're going to be stuck with the current BOD for Bavi's development.
Fortunately, the R&D is in MSK and NCCN's hands, not PPHM's.
Probably the best we can hope for. Possibly a compromise for the Board.
Avid revenues get maxed by Ronin's team, while PPHM hands off all research to MSK and NCCN for PS Blockade.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
NCCN only, no PPHM Bavi studies =GOOD! EOM
NCCN Bavi + Keytruda in head and neck is the KEY EOM
Go to peregrineinc.com for link to webcast EOM
Ronin's move VALIDATES PS science
They're not just in this for Avid.
No way.
They want a halt on PPHM-funded Bavi studies. OK, who cares.
What I care about is NCCN. That's where the toast gets buttered.
NCCN will combine Bavi and Keytruda. This is what we want! If (when) this trial show tripling of the anti-PD1 responder footprint, Big Pharm goes berserk.
Maybe they already know enough now. Maybe a deal if forthcoming. Soon.
Of course, we'll keep a sharp eye out for a "Ronin Ripoff."
But hard to deny we haven't been ripped off pretty badly already.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Peregr, good point. Who says Stafford wants to sell PS Blockade for peanuts?
His letter said no more PPHM money for Bavi trials.
But this CANNOT include THE pivotal trial at NCCN with Bavi and anti-PD1 for head and neck cancer. NCCN is running that trial. Not PPHM.
That trial will go on. And it is the most important trial in PPHM's history.
Stafford knows this. Ronin's BOD will monetize PS Blockade if (when) Bavi is shown to triple the responder footprint for anti-PD1s.
Let's see where this goes. Best AH CC ever coming.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Wall Street smells a deal?
Stock continues to jump sharply.
Year highs, low float, who knows what may be announced AH?
Stock may hit $6 before today's over.
BOD trying to save its neck?
We'll see. Love the dynamic behind Ronin - we need fresh blood in there.
But, over the past 24 hours, many good points have been made cautioning about the sale of PS blockade for peanuts.
If that's the case, TELL US STEVE!
Best,
Joe Six Pack
OK, Bidrite you have totally mis-read me
I signed the Ronin support letter!
I was VERY happy about the stock rise yesterday.
Read my posts.
I consider the Ronin letter to be accurate.
My point is that it is a very personal attack on the BOD (merited).
Let's see how they respond. They SHOULD go ballistic. If they don't, that raises serious concerns.
Get it?
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Ship, totally agree.
The Ronin letter was a vicious attack on the character of the BOD. Insinuations of malfeasance, illegality, even criminality.
As I mentioned in a prior post, I would go absolutely ballistic if someone wrote those words about me. I would sue for libel. I would make it my mission in life to clear my good name and restore my reputation.
If the BOD does not do that tomorrow, you have your answer.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
PS: the pps may continue to increase sharply, with the expectation of a deal announcement from the BOD (to save their necks).
Just, I doubt it. I really do.
We all believe what we want to believe.
Many good posters believe in PPHM as you do. Their names are not on the list.
They are genuine people and have done a lot of DD. We all feel "burned" for not realizing the extent of the problem.
Go easy. There are a lot of good people who have been in this stock a lot longer than you have.
Best,
Joe Six Pack