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A lot of coverage on this in this mornings presentations and dialog with Goldberg and Cope. Hopefully they post them on the website. Take-a-way is a 1+1 = 5 scenario with the crossover into therapeutics/delivery from diagnostic only...and the sense being many more can/will follow within and beyond RA. BOL
NAVB Seems short sellers were ready for the approval volume, hit low of 1.57 on the FDA PR and still off 10%. MG should have anticipated this and hopefully has a plan ready to counter over the coming weeks.
Would appear based on the Effect Notice filed on Wednesday that Crede may have (or will be) exchanged their warrants and are now long the 3.8M common. That IMO suggests they believe the SP will exceed the $2.00 warrant formula floor in the near future. As boards like YMB are being over-run with full-time pumpers also suggests some hedges have gone long. The weekly charts are flashing a very bullish signal...hopefully they give the SP it's full technical run before cashing in. Monday is MG's first day...next episode airing soon IMO. BOL all.
This is a paste from one of my recent posts on YMB that's again been deleted by Yahoo. Too much chatter on PM I guess. The below was in response to a question about price movement from here and a bottom at 1.35. BOL all
Of course I'm not "sure". Insti holdings of NAVB are up nicely. The sector already put in a capitulation bottom a month ago and has been improving since. MG and PM motives are unknown at this point, however once they're in firm control in June, and with Pykett out of their way, a positive message from them is much more likely IMO than negative. LS/Mano has some decent potential catalysts, so long as they don't gut the rest of the pipeline (which is a big factor in our market cap). Timing is everything - I look for a financial restructure ahead of the July meeting. Assuming PM underwrites, we need to see restricted shares/warrants to assure the market they're investing rather than repeating the past. First things first, we need to see momentum/volume through the 1.60's resistance. PM is at the blocker and can no longer buy long, but if they take their foot off our neck others can, and will IMO. I'm primarily a trader, meaning I (attempt to) take my profits before someone else takes them from me. In my view the upside to mid-2's outweighs the downside from here. The cards are NOT all dealt yet, if you trail a sensible stop-loss then 1.11 is not a factor.
The "$10M" was just a ballpark. Navidea sold to Crede roughly 2.50-3.00. PM had to sell their 10M shares a few months later at roughly 1.50-2.00. resulting in roughly $10M of lost profits to PM since they were side-stepped. Suggest reading the P-share agreement and the significant restrictions imposed by PM on Navidea regarding secondary offerings by the company which net greater than $10M. As for 4694, IMO it's their best shot at significant future appreciation - I hope it kept as a priority. I would anticipate very noticeable changes ahead once MG is active as CEO June 1st. These announcements will likely occur prior to the July annual meeting and BOD voting. BOL
He was honked off that Navidea got the $30M cash from Crede, and not him and PM. Mark's deal cost PM $10M. Next he'll nominate someone like Shepard to be CEO...nothing would surprise me at this point.
Form 4's are required within 2 days by MG, even the shares are held indirectly. A 13D has a 10day deadline when over 5% I believe; so not thinking they will have any regarding NAVB. We'll see.
inside....well now we know. PM at 14M common as of 3/31. so after accounting for the conversions, that leaves a 10M share disposition in Q1, IMO hopefully to another non-PM fund/institution. BOL
When they remove "Arbitrage" from the name PPVA we can discuss them not shorting :) I'm sure the puzzle pieces will fall in place soon. take care
If, as was suggested on the OT board, that were true. One or both of the following would have been required upon execution of the transaction:
1. PM exceeding 10% common and reporting.
2. MG receiving one share from PM or more and reporting.
Both of the above deadlines have long past.
Navidea cannot and would not exercise the conversion request unless being assured that the 10% blocker was not at risk. PM's most common method of accomplishing this is via short selling ahead of the conversion, or in lesser amounts, a long sale from their core common. In cases where Navidea is aware of a potential or actual filing not self reported as required by the SEC, they have the obligation to report on PM's behalf.
AS for DDbuyer, IMO he represents the interests of PM exclusively. In some cases that can be good and in some cases he out-right stretches too far. I have nothing pro or con to say about any other individual or entity operating within the law. Each of us is responsible for our own decisions and capable of reaching their own conclusions. And each of us are entitled to state their opinion.
inside...to add....
rough numbers...only about 1M common converted from P to common in April. Those being reported in Q2. The majority of the 15M converted was prior to 3/31. reportable now. Current P-share only about 3100.
As for restructure, past PM restructures washed all debt, in this case inclusive of Oxford and in exchange for P shares. Cash raised from the recent selling would be used to pay off Oxford IF that is what plays out.
Regarding MG there has been a definite change in PM relationship. He is no longer directing, and all funds now with Uri. However, Nothing in your excerpt below suggests he can not represent the interests of PM wherever he/they choose. He continues as we speak to be their designee on other boards. IMO he needs to clear on this one way or another if he expects my vote in July.
cheers
I once again caught up on reading a very good series of threads on the IV-NAVB board. I might add to those discussions and my earlier posts on YMB and I-Hub with the following opinions:
MG is required to report ANY changes to his position in NAVB stock upon there occurrence.
Insiders, and 10%+ holders also are required to notice the public of sales, and their intentions to sell amounts above SEC defined limits.
PM operates numerous entities, including derivative and arbitrage (short) hedge funds. They must report collectively regardless of where/how they transfer among the funds. Although they have yet to report Q1 holdings, refer to their recent filings for other stocks to better understand their latest collective reporting approach.
Regardless of their often “3-card Monte” tactics with shares; P-share conversions of any type represent shares coming off the shelf and therefore dilution to the common shares and have either a direct or indirect negative effect on the SP. All common shares find their way to market in one way or another and the market cap.
PM, other than from August-December 2012, has voluntarily stayed below 10% common ownership to avoid the significantly more detailed and more frequent reporting requirements. There are significant advantages to P-shares (other than voting power) compared to common and no reason on earth to convert unless they are being disposed of in some form.
Although MG has agreed to “not direct/influence NAVB shares owned by PM….”; there is no agreement that he cannot or will not continue to be paid by PM. He is currently PM’s designated representative on the ECTE BOD and is currently waging a proxy battle along with his cousin to gain control of that company due to PM public dissatisfaction with management. MG’s most recent proxy threat against NAVB was 3 years ago and was settled w/o a full on battle by adding 2 PM designees who continue to serve today.
The NAVB balance sheet cannot support a chronic negative equity situation and the cash available on the PM LOC (funded by all of us care of PM conversions/sales in 2012) is not free. The likelihood of debt restructure (rather than stock off NAVB’s shelf) is highly likely this year IMO. The upside is the obvious positive equity and debt elimination. The downside is a new ton of P-shares to PM and/or their permanent appointment to control our BOD. Anticipate cost reducing measures as well – not a bad by-product to get us to cash positive sooner. Love ‘em or hate ‘em…just get more used to them…they’re not done yet.
Finally, regarding the yet-TBD disposition of all those recent conversions (including the latest round in April), one more possibility is a sale to another non-PM institution. IF, another institution has gotten in the game at a cheap entry price, a net positive for us. Keep in mind that an “accumulating institution” may file a CT order and not publically file holdings with the SEC until there position is complete. Regarding recent volume analysis by some, keep in mind that PM via their own shelf filing may dispose of shares off market (dark pool – private sale, etc.). If this were to be the case, EVERYONE benefits.
Trade safe and BOL all
Tech/42D
Good approach wrinks...couldn't agree more. This is a trader. we knew that going back to the CRL in 2012 coupled with PM running the wash cycle. Even for me I'm getting irritated with their bs. Just posted on yahoo my thoughts. PM aside the PUDFA's and a decent balance sheet correction may let this run back up at least somewhat. GLTU
42D/Tech
Every day you don't sell a position is a day you bought it. That's especially true in the biotech space. Trading 101 IMO. Sometimes the tuition gets expensive as this week in virtually all biotechs. You are the one (as are all of us) responsible for a position gone bad, not management, and not an evil short. Stop loss orders and GTC's save your bacon 10X for every time one is taken. BOL
EXEL down hard on the interim results this morning. IMO the results were as expected but that's obviously wrong. Possibly the time now needed to approval has everyone exiting. Trading at 4.60 now which is pre-run-up level. EXEL is 85% institutional owned but also a very high short interest adding to the impact.
EXEL Up 7% pre-market on Cometriq approval in Europe. Although down overall the past few weeks this one has held up well recently against the overall biotech selling.
NAVB The recent conversions by Montaur really jump out on the chart - end of January timeframe. They divested 10M shares and now down to 25M total. Continued divesting by PM and letting other institutions/hedge funds in at a good price will help propel this IMO. Crede is eligible to exchange their warrants on Monday (3.8M shares) - unusual volume may be the tell.
HZNP 17.86 PM Reverse merger announced this morning, up 21% Pre-Market
That is my interpretation as well. Note that MG holds personal shares (150K or so) that are reportable.
I find it more than interesting that the share amount sold off by PM is also the same amount as the Crede sell-off that got us to these levels. PM has never sold into a low....until now. More going on here than meets the eye regardless of who picked them up. We continue to see huge bids day after day, 192K sitting today. BOL
inside you could be correct on the filings. We are at the 45 day mark from 1/31 when the large block trading (high volume) days occurred. Remains to be seen what if anything is filed since MG is now saying he's all but out of PM but won't confirm that with details. You are correct IMO that the recdnt management shares were purchased by PM.
keep in mind also that accumulating institutions can file a CT order allowing them not to report until their full position is established. PM sold for a reason....and the story behind it is yet to unfold IMO.
Recent selling...While we 've all been busy watching the Crede conversion, PM converted another 13.6M shares to common since Jan 1st. As of 2/28 they reported holding 14.1M common which is just below the new 10% limit (based on 148M common now outstanding). As of 12/31 they held 10.3M common. Those new conversions result in net selling of at least 9.8M shares since January. In other terms their total holdings including P-shares has reduced from 35M in January to 25M as of Feb. 28th. They may have continued selling off in the first 2 weeks of March, however this may not be revealed until the Q1 reports are out. Normally that much sell pressure would shock the SP more than we've seen, suggesting other buyers have off-set them. BOL
NAVB Scheduled for an oral presentation on Wednesday per the now published agenda. I think this may be different than how ADCOMMs are run in the US.
IBB/BIB Nice job on the chart analysis - I have similar interpretation. I trade the BIB and currently positioned at $96 as a range play. The IBB currently over-sold and ready for a new leg up IMO.
posted a reply over on yahoo....I'll add that IF Crede perceives a possible "sell the news" drop after the CHMP meeting, they might hold off on warrant exchange and wait for a lower SP. Anyone's guess...however IMO we need to assume those shares find their way to the market. On the other hand some believe they may hold for the potential PDUFA run. Montaur controls 10X more convertibles and IMO one not to forget.
Kei...Crede holds about 3.1M warrants at a 3.85 strike. If the SP is below as it obviously is, those warrants can be EXCHANGED (via B-S calculation for free shares) with no additional cash to Navidea. The trigger date is 3/24, so assume they get 3.5+M shares on 3/24. This will off-set their losses on the common purchased for 2.82 last Sept. They are permitted to short sell 1-2 days prior to the conversion. IMO the shares will need absorbed into the market....or some have speculated they may hold for at least the PDUFA run. Also, CHMP committee meets same week and a positive opinion for LS is expected. Makes for some SP action near term....buyers appear to be liking the new cash (loan) for now. trade safe!
My take is that a 15%-20% drop on earnings report is not out of the question especially if it's viewed by traders as a time to lock gains. Any dip may be quick if the weekly chart holds. I consider the market "ignoring" the earnings release to be very bullish in this case. That said IMO watch other than earnings first week of March -
10k details mid-march (balance sheet and conversions and subsequent events);
CHMP January meeting minutes published next week for LS status;
CHMP March agenda published mid-month;
Crede conversion late March - shorting 1-2 days prior to the conversion is permitted on the exchange transaction;
Bullish on the very heavy buys on the bid and recent huge volume trades last few weeks supports a move to 2.20's IMO;
Beyond the March action consider early approval of the sNDA, coupled with a positive CHMP opinion, and some pre-PDUFA strength brings the 2013 highs in play. PM continues to be the "unknown factor" and with the direct BOD seat they have the potential to re-capitalize NAVB in a market-positive manner...remains to be seen. BOL all
NAVB There have been huge 200k+ share bids sitting on 1.91 last 2 days...right at the 50dMA. Chart in good shape. Still holding this from 1.72. BOL
CLDX $27.40 Exited position via trailing stop at 27.40 for +12%. On watch for re-entry.
BIB 100.66 Auto-exited trade at 100.48 for +20%.
NAVB $1.97PM Received Priority Review for LS sNDA. PDUFA date June 16th.
NAVB $1.97 PM Received Priority Review for LS sNDA. PDUFA date June 16th.
CLDX $27.70 Trading new HOD. Have been in/out of this one since first round in the 4's 2 years ago thanks to this board. Current position from 24.37. recent offering was at 24.50.
GALE $4.54 Took a 15% hit on heavy volume this morning after AF piece from The Street. Approaching bottom of recent trading range.
BIB $91.00 Positioned at 83.40 on overall biotech market play. I trade this as any other stock. IMO a good way to park capital when not tied up in specific trades. chart linkhttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIB&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p92538545815
EXEL $7.27 Re-entered with starter last Friday on chart play coupled with COMET trial developments. Earnings/update scheduled for 2/20 after the close. Building APPY position as well.
EXEL $6.60 Watching this for re-entry after stopping out at 7.92. COMET results on the horizon. Link to chart below looking much better. Anyone else in this trade? TIA
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXEL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p26895718913
NAVB Decision from FDA regarding Priority Review for LS sNDA is expected by 2/17. If granted June PDUFA date expected. Next CHMP meeting week of 2/17. NAVB previously requested additional time to respond to questions from the December meeting so IMO possibly another month or 2 to come up for opinion.
NAVB positive data released this morning for 4694 ph 2.