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Gold will rise with dollar as 'violent' global debt crisis unfolds, de-dollarization will take at least a decade - Brent Johnson
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-06-23/Gold-will-rise-with-dollar-as-violent-global-debt-crisis-unfolds-de-dollarization-will-take-at-least-a-decade-Brent-Johnson.html
My Comment: There's no denying that the global debt of $305Trillion is unsustainable. How it all ends is the real question.
Color me skeptical -
My Comment: Stocks are overvalued, and this guy thinks stocks won't take a big hit in a recession?
Why The Equity Market Need Not Fear A Recession
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-equity-market-need-not-fear-recession
It's only money -
My Comment: What's a measly $9 Billion in today's world free money?
"Huge" Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huge-bearish-bets-gone-wrong-cost-carl-icahn-9-billion-losses
It's only money -
My Comment: What's a measly $9 Billion in today's world free money?
"Huge" Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huge-bearish-bets-gone-wrong-cost-carl-icahn-9-billion-losses
Joe Biden Is One Really Bad President -
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/joe-biden-is-one-really-bad-president/ar-AA1bjpLE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=60863cf4450a4709975f676cb3297b6e&ei=39
Excerpt:
Biden’s botches defy tabulation (e.g., abortionitis, race obsession, transgender-mania soaring federal spending, swelling national debt, sagging mental acuity, etc.) Too bad English has only 26 letters.
It really is all about the DEBT -
But I don't think anything will change. At some point we hit a brick wall.
Debt Ceiling Brinksmanship And The Necessity For Spending Reforms
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-ceiling-brinksmanship-and-necessity-spending-reforms
The country will not survive -
another Biden presidency or possibly even Biden's current term. And if Trump were to become president, we would also be doomed. Biden is emblematic of a declining America. Of course, Kamala Harris could become president. May God have mercy on our souls.
Watch: Biden Awkwardly Wanders Away During Air Force Football Ceremony | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-biden-awkwardly-wanders-away-middle-air-force-football-ceremony
It's all about the DEBT -
Capital One Expects Recession By Year-End, Hammered By Bad Debt Provisions: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/capital-one-expects-recession-year-end-hammered-bad-debt-provisions
My Comment: Things don't really get ugly until the recession starts and with 35 years of the Fed destroying the economy, the recession should be severe.
Excerpt:
Specifically, the write-off rate in the firm's US credit-card portfolio soared to 4.04% in this year's first three months ($1.7 billion), almost double the rate a year earlier, and the Virginia-based lender said provision for credit losses soared to $2.8 billion in the quarter ended March, up from $677 million a year ago.
The driver for that expected loss is simple - reality!
“We are assuming a material worsening of labor markets with the unemployment rate rising from today’s very low levels to above 5% by the end of 2023,” the CEO told analysts on a conference call.
“We are also assuming adverse effects from inflation and some further worsening of consumer profiles from the flip side of their extraordinary outperformance in the earlier period during the pandemic.”
What If The Whole Shebang Unravels?: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/what-if-whole-shebang-unravels
My Comment: Charles Hugh Smith expresses my sentiments in this article. I think there is a day of reckoning for all of the CBs, especially the Fed, and the catastrophic polies they have pursued for the past 35 years. And when things really start to unravel, the CBs will be powerless to contain the consequences. Got gold?
$20 Trillion in 10 years is only $2 Trillion annual deficits which we are having in a growth economy. The deficits will be much larger in a recession. I'm expecting a $40 Trillion national debt by 2026.
$20 Trillion in 10 years is only $2 Trillion annual deficits which we are having in a growth economy. The deficits will be much larger in a recession. I'm expecting a $40 Trillion national debt by 2026.
We're Going To Need A Bigger Bank: Debt And Bank Defaults Threaten Commercial Real Estate Like Never Before:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/we-re-going-to-need-a-bigger-bank-debt-and-bank-defaults-threaten-commercial-real-estate-like-never-before/ar-AA19Mlei?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9616fc65c7b34279c3b5b25dca08fd1d&ei=26
Excerpt:
The Letter pointed to the fact that it took the U.S. 224 years to hit $10 trillion in debt and in the last two decades alone, has added another $21 trillion. On top of that, it predicted that U.S. debt is expected to hit $51 trillion by 2033, adding another $20 trillion in 10 years.
Prepare To Be Bled Dry By A Decade Of Stagflation
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/prepare-be-bled-dry-decade-stagflation
Excerpts:
At long last, all these gimmicks have reversed or reached marginal returns: they no longer keep inflation suppressed, asset bubbles inflating and profits expanding. The malinvestment of global capital will be revealed and the costs of the policy gimmickry will be paid by years of stagflation: high inflation, low or negative growth and endless debt crises as the reliance on cheap credit to boost profits comes home to roost.
It turns out that the inevitable offspring of hyper-financialization and hyper-globalization are inflation, credit crises and the undermining of national security as the self-serving goal of pushing corporate profits higher via globalization led to fatal dependencies on competing powers for the essentials of modern life.
Correcting these decades-long extremes will take at least a decade as long-suppressed inflation becomes endemic, supply-chain disruptions become the norm and capital has to be invested in long-term national projects such as reshoring and the engineering of a new more efficient energy mix--projects that will only be expenses for many years.
Welcome To The Death Spiral
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/welcome-death-spiral
My Comment: It's just a matter of time and time is runnung out. I expect the national debt to reach $40Trillion by 2026.
Excerpts:
As the US borrows more money and its existing debts roll over at higher rates, the cost of that debt is soaring. This year the government’s annual interest bill will break $1 trillion. Combine that with the soaring cost of Medicare and Social Security as millions of Baby Boomers retire, and Washington is looking at $2 trillion a year just in just interest and entitlements, which it will have to borrow to fund, which will send interest costs even higher, which will require more borrowing, and so on, until it all comes crashing down.
And there’s nothing that the monetary authorities can do to stop it, because either choice – keep interest rates high or push them back down – leads to the same place, which is a currency crisis. Meanwhile, each turn of the wheel makes the problem more intractable and the collapse more imminent. That’s what the term “death spiral” refers to: a process that feeds on itself until the system implodes.
Did Powell just screw up ? -
My Comment: Inflation has a green light. I expect a lot of Fed hawkish talk to try to walk the markets back.
Bonds, Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Blast Off As Dovish Powell Pussys Out
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powells-dovish-presser-sparks-bid-bonds-big-tech-bitcoin-bullion
It's all about the DEBT -
The market is headed for a 'tinderbox-timebomb' that will be worse than the 1929 crash, Black Swan fund manager says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-market-is-headed-for-a-tinderbox-timebomb-that-will-be-worse-than-the-1929-crash-black-swan-fund-manager-says/ar-AA16WBie
Excerpt:
His view mirrors that of other doomsday commentators, such as top economist Nouriel Roubini, who warned that high debt levels and rising interest rates would cause a severe recession and a debt crisis that could shatter the economy. Michael Burry, "The Big Short" investor who bet against the US housing market leading up to its crash, has also said markets were exiting an era of speculation, and stocks were headed for the "mother of all crashes."
"The correction that was once natural and healthy has instead become a contagious inferno capable of destroying the system entirely," Spitznagel added, predicting a "slowcession," akin to the Great Depression that ravaged the global economy nearly a century ago. "The world is just too levered today, the debt construct just too big," he warned.
Here's How "Prosperity" Ends: Global Bubbles Are Popping
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-how-prosperity-ends-global-bubbles-are-popping
Excerpts:
The inflation generated by bubbles remains as collateral crashes and credit expansion reverses into contraction. Suddenly, there's fewer greater fools willing to pay bubble prices for assets. The smart money sold long ago, but the not-so-dumb money finally awakens to the potential downside of bubbles popping: rather than reaping huge gains, assets might become illiquid (i.e. there are no buyers at any price) or valuations might fall faster than anyone believed possible in the heady bubblicious decades.
Here's How "Prosperity" Ends: Global Bubbles Are Popping
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-how-prosperity-ends-global-bubbles-are-popping
Excerpts:
The inflation generated by bubbles remains as collateral crashes and credit expansion reverses into contraction. Suddenly, there's fewer greater fools willing to pay bubble prices for assets. The smart money sold long ago, but the not-so-dumb money finally awakens to the potential downside of bubbles popping: rather than reaping huge gains, assets might become illiquid (i.e. there are no buyers at any price) or valuations might fall faster than anyone believed possible in the heady bubblicious decades.
Great News: Everyone in China will get Covid -
China Says Over 80% Of Population Infected With COVID, No Risk Of Virus Rebound
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/china-says-over-80-population-infected-covid-no-risk-virus-rebound
My Comment: With the number of daily new Covid cases expected to peak at 4.2 million in March, the experts think China will have achieved herd immunity (albeit at a very high cost in lives lost). The problem is this kind of rampant Covid is an incubator for variants which can extend the Covid cases and deaths much longer.
Excerpt:
The possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have now been infected, reaching the herd immunity threshold...
15 and 17 and already in trouble with the law -
My Comment: Not a good way to start life. But theft is so common these days. Mostly because there's no punishment. A lot of retailers are leaving big cities where crime is a real problem.
Police recover $1 million worth of gold and silver after teenagers get caught mid-heist in Toronto
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-23/Police-recover-1-million-worth-of-gold-and-silver-after-teenagers-get-caught-mid-heist-in-Toronto.html
More rotting assets are lurking in the shadows of the financial system
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/more-rotting-assets-are-lurking-in-the-shadows-of-the-financial-system/ar-AA16wyat?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eb9773aa36bc44a88c0d8b24ac057a76
Excerpts:
Nonbanks, firms that are not traditional insured depositories, lie at the heart of a system that has created a $5 trillion debt load on companies in the U.S. alone, according to a new study by my organization, Americans for Financial Reform.
This mix of leveraged loans securitized into collateralized loan obligations, high-yield debt, and private credit have played a critical role in the private-equity industry’s leveraged buyout machine that has taken over tens of thousands of companies.
Corporate indebtedness is now higher than it was before the 2008 financial crisis.
We will find little positive left over from this lending. Our research suggests that only a tiny fraction—3%—went for identifiable corporate purposes. Instead, the debt supports further consolidation in an economy that already has a problem with monopoly power, and it allowed owners to draw cash out of companies, or refinance.
The hangover from this subprime corporate lending will amplify any future downturn as companies struggling to service their debt laypeople off and reduce their capital investments amid a global economic slowdown. It will also test the financial system, daring central bankers to veer away from higher rates.
Much of this subprime corporate debt reflects questionable accounting practices that allow borrowers to overestimate future earnings, thus downplaying leverage levels something private-equity owners shrug off because of their own short time horizons. It’s an echo of how Wall Street’s originate-and-distribute model of mortgage lending led to crisis in 2008 because it divorces decision-making from liability.
I've always liked what James Grant has to say and in the article linked below, he expects a long bear market in bonds as rates continue to rise and he cites Japan as a major global economic risk. He also likes gold.
My Comment: There has to be a severe price to pay for the past 35 years of reckless Fed and other CBs monetary policies. And I can see rates rising just due to the ever increasing sovereign debt because investors will need to be compensated for the risk of holding that debt especially as inflation continues to rise.
Jim Grant Warns "Japan Is Perhaps The Most Important Risk In The World" | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-warns-japan-perhaps-most-important-risk-world
Excerpts
What is your advice to investors in this environment?
Having just mocked the central banks for their pretending to know what they can’t know, I’m in a very compromised position if I were to say what is going to happen. But allow me to suggest that I’m somewhat of a broken record on gold. I’m going to continue with this broken record and observe that people have not yet come to terms with the essential inherent weaknesses of the monetary system that has been in place since 1971. [color=red][/color]We have all gotten used to it. I mean, you have to be a person of a certain age, indeed you have to be as old as I am, to really recall the debates surrounding the abandonment of Bretton Woods. People have grown up with the idea that money is what they print, and if the Japanese can print $50 billion a day with which to suppress interest rates, that doesn’t shock many people. But I think such shocks do lay ahead.[color=red][/color]
And gold can help protect a portfolio against such shocks?
I think that the strains that are already obvious will become more so. People will be looking around not for a better brand of paper or digital money, but rather for the real McCoy.[color=red][/color] In every issue of «Grant’s» we have something to say about a stock, so I don’t want to sound too much of a nutcase. We do live in the real world. But when I look at the very big picture, the money the central banks produce in such profusion is unsound. It may not be now, but in time, people will look around for an alternative and that alternative may just be gold - the thing that has been more or less a shadow cast by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the other crypto currencies.
But the Fed has everything under control and a soft landing is assured. No?
Zoltan Pozsar, The Four Prices Of Money, And The Coming Gold Bull Market
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/zoltan-pozsar-four-prices-money-and-coming-gold-bull-market
Excerpt:
How will the price of money be altered this time around? According to Pozsar, through interest rates and price level (yield curve control). After the US weaponized its currency to freeze Russia’s assets, the amount of US government debt that needs to be financed is larger than the world is willing to absorb. The Federal Reserve will bail out the government by buying up bonds of all maturities, effectively capping yields across the curve. Inflation will stay elevated, above the entire yield curve, which lowers the value of money. In this environment investors and foreign central banks will flee to gold.
US To Hit Debt Ceiling One Week From Today, Starting Countdown To Epic Chaos
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hit-debt-ceiling-one-week-today-starting-countdown-epic-chaos
US To Hit Debt Ceiling One Week From Today, Starting Countdown To Epic Chaos
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hit-debt-ceiling-one-week-today-starting-countdown-epic-chaos
Tomorrow's CPI may push the SPX to that 4050 level. Too many people still think the stock market is the best place to invest as they continue to place their hopes on China reopening and a Fed pivot, neither of which I expect to materialize any time soon.
Roubini: More War Means More Inflation
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/roubini-more-war-means-more-inflation
Nouriel Roubini says gold may be your best protection as the mother of all debt bombs & nine other megathreats are looming
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-10/Gold-may-be-your-best-protection-mother-of-all-debt-bombs-nine-other-megathreats-are-looming-Nouriel-Roubini.html
Dr Doom's Mother-Of-All-Crises Looming
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/dr-dooms-mother-all-crises-looming
IRS looks to partner with crypto companies to combat financial crime
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-03/IRS-looks-to-partner-with-crypto-companies-to-combat-financial-crime.html
My Comment: Are these guys serious? I doubt crypto companies would want the IRS meddling in their business. They want to be opaque to hide their own criminality.
Mish: Is Inflation Always And Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/mish-inflation-always-and-everywhere-monetary-phenomenon
[Note: TCMDO=Total Credit Market Debt]
Excerpt:
TCMDO is $92 trillion. Data is through the third quarter of 2022.
How the heck is that supposed to be paid back?
Forget about M2, for now. Watch TCMDO instead. If credit collapses, the economy and the Fed is in deep trouble.
By the way, please note M2 money supply is $21.4 trillion while total credit owed TCMDO is $92.2 trillion.
Will these converge? Which way, how, and when?
Another one bites the dust -
Midas Investments shuts down, taking over 55% of customers' funds
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-28/Midas-Investments-shuts-down-taking-over-55-of-customers-funds.html
Mark Cuban says this about gold:
"Gold is a store of value, and so is Bitcoin," he said. "If everything went to hell in a handbasket and you had a gold bar, you know what would happen? Someone would beat the f**k out of you or kill you and take your gold bar. It's useless."
My Comment: First they'd have to know you have the gold and secondly, they'd have to get past the shotgun blast. Crypto currency can be stolen by corrupt exchanges and by online hackers and of course you're out of luck if you forget your key
It's all about the DEBT -
My Comment: I'm expecting the national debt to reach $40Trillion by 2026 as the deficits balloon in the recession. $2Triilion annual deficits.
Big Spending Bill Is A Big Problem For The Fed's Inflation Fight
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/big-spending-bill-big-problem-feds-inflation-fight
Excerpts:
The $1.7 trillion bill will fund government operations for the remainder of fiscal 2023. It includes some $800 billion in domestic spending, a 9.3% increase over fiscal 2022. It also includes $858 billion in military spending, a 10% increase over last year’s levels.
Of course, this is only one component of federal expenditures. In March 2021, Congress approved $1.9 trillion in spending to address the pandemic, and earlier this year, it passed the euphemistically named “Inflation Reduction Act.” All of that spending will pile on top of this most recent allocation of funding.
5 Global Flashpoints Which Could Absolutely Explode During The Early Stages Of 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/5-global-flashpoints-which-could-absolutely-explode-during-early-stages-2023
Is another crypto shoe about to drop? -
December 16 – Financial Times (Scott Chipolina, Michael O’Dwyer, Martha Muir, Joshua Oliver, and Stephen Foley i): “Outflows from Binance accelerated to $6bn in the first half of this week, while accounting firm Mazars has halted its work on crucial ‘proof of reserves’ reporting, as the crypto exchange battles to avert a crisis of confidence. Binance… is battling to reassure investors of its financial strength following the collapse of rival crypto exchange FTX. The exchange said on Friday that it had been hit by roughly $6bn in net withdrawls between Monday and Wednesday.”
Gold in 2023 -
Outrageous! This is what gets gold to $3,000 in 2023, says Saxo Bank | Kitco News
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-06/Outrageous-This-is-what-gets-gold-to-3-000-in-2023-says-Saxo-Bank.html
My Comment: I would add the impact of soaring debt in a recession and a financial crisis.
There is $65 Trillion in off-balance sheet debt in addition to the on-balance sheet debt.
$65 Trillion in global hidden debt -
My Comment: The next financial crisis will be huge. It's all about the DEBT.
December 5 – Bloomberg (Paul J. Davies): “Sixty-five trillion dollars is a not big number: It’s a huge, barely comprehensible number. It’s more than 2 1/2 times the size of the entire US Treasury market, the world’s biggest. It’s 14% of the value of all financial assets globally… It’s also the value of hidden dollar debt unrecorded on the balance sheets of non-US banks and shadow banks as of June this year, also according to the BIS… It has been growing rapidly, having nearly doubled since 2008. The fact that most of this hidden debt is owed to banks is another reminder of the ever-growing and opaque interconnections between the traditional financial system and the shadow banking sector. A whole set of recent mini-crises has shown that these links are part of why central banks keep being forced to step in and stabilize government bond markets and other assets when stress levels rise.
Chinese Health Official Admits 80-90% Of Population May End Up With COVID
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-health-official-says-80-90-population-may-end-covid
My Comment: China has some real problems ahead
Biden is a wimp -
My Comment: From my vantage point Biden just keeps Fumbling and Bumbling into wrong decisions. I think trading Viktor Bout ("The Merchant of Death") for Griner was on par with his exit from Afghanistan. Griner knew or she should have known what Russian law was regarding drugs and she took the risk. Also, Biden says he has more important things than visiting the Border where illegals are swamping the Border Patrol. Also, Biden keeps trying to get debt forgiveness for student loans. Students took out those loans and they should be responsible for paying them, not taxpayers. We have two more years of bad decisions from Biden if his health holds up.
Russia Releases 1st Footage Of Griner, Bout Prisoner Swap
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-biden-explains-why-he-swapped-russian-merchant-death-wnba-star
65-trillion-of-derivatives-debt-sparks-concern
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/65-trillion-of-derivatives-debt-sparks-concern/vi-AA14WIk1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=17c8482fb27f4ba48e601d63572826f8&category=foryou