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perhaps the best thing to do is liquidate and sell whatever this co has of value. doesn't appear to have much in terms of assets or intellectual property. no one actually believes these ambitious press releases anymore...and we have all been patient.
Solar City as a buyer?
Well. Have gotten used to that by now. But long term plays dont care about volume as much as they do about relationships and forming new ones, if the old ones don't pan. Still waiting for an answer to my last question about powering NatGas sites. Once the hole is drilled, and rig installed, they go unmanned for the most part. Wellhead and emerging environmental monitoring equipment on dry sealed wells also need a power source. They are remotely located. PA is next door. NY doesn't want fracking. Lots of room for power providers to service NatGas fields with wind and solar. Geez, NatGas developers loathe a 30% PTC until they benefit from it. Still have until 2016 under 100KW.
Don't know what that means? Care to elaborate?
Keeping it positive now! Natural Gas prices are tough to compete with no matter what your selling, solar or wind, or grid management efficiency. Has this company ever considered powering natural gas sites, development and exploration?
Dry shale gas is 4% of the total energy production. Big pie out there. Just a thought.
any specifics for the low unit output/performance? what was the hub height btw?
bandit.. i believe those press releases may be valuing the deals in pesos and renmimbi not USD. get used to it...i hear $1Billion in revenue by 2014 :)
Great post! It is critical to extend the PTC/ITC. I believe solar subsidies go away as well, should it not be extended. On the flip side, When do renewables reach the point that subsidies are no longer needed? or How can renewables reach that point?
Simple Analysis. Making Electrons. It's a commodity. Cheap wins, despite the harmful effects and hidden costs (downstream) of fossil fuels . (Levelized Cost of Energy in cents)
Coal .010-.020 p/kwhr
NG is roughly .035-.040 p/kwhr
Wind > 1MW .05-.12 p/kwhr
Wind < 1MW .15-.50+ p/kwhr
**these are estimated based on DOE and CEC (CA) average of averages.
you may have different numbers. pls challenge them.
NG prices have been soft for a long time. Is it time for that to change?
Perhaps with your next conversation about Arista, there may be advise when this stock goes to $4.50.
At that point, I will look to deploy parachute to break-even. I leave the long term die-hards robotics the rose bush.
Arista ain't ready for Amex. need more rev or a big haul in fundraising [IMO] even a jv/strategic with overlapping but advanced technology that supports IMG/PODS and MRPS platform could boost it-company long term valuation. But where or where could that tech be.
Good luck with your analysis. Exchange listing doesn't matter until ya nail the fundamentals[IMO]
I'll be back in 3-6 mos. Gotta get back to my own product development in the wind space..in BOSTON!
Peace out
thanks merle. i must concede that got out of hand and i wont' stray there again. it was total nonsense.
best regards
I should make myself clearer..I am not disputing what the company 8K, and PR newswire releases state. They can say whatever they would like..
I am looking for the link FROM the US ARMY CERDEC notice of awards, procurement notices, asbstracts that are published as well...and info on the "REDUCE" program. Not effn disputing that they have some form of relationship with them. What are the terms?
Again, where is the US Army CERDEC Link that outlines the terms or notice of award of this procurement. That is all.
AS far as fiction, one only has to read historical press releases vs. outcome.
Hope that isnt the case on this "contract"
Again, PR Newswire and Company statements are not terms! Anything issued by PR Newswire comes straight from the company un-checked.
Where is the Army CERDEC link that has the contract award posted?, not the gushy press releases from Arista or comments from Schmitz.
This co. has a long history of rosy/fantasy press releases that have been proved time and time again to be detached from reality.
As a shareholder, I want this co. to succeed. But print or distribute the link that at least says that $922K is going to Arista and not to the government Lab or someone else, or that is a cost that Arista must match.
Not a novice in dealing with DOD procurement awards. What is suspect is no press release from the Army CERDEC and I could find no information on the "REDUCE" programs. I would like to know more and how this can help Arista. Othewise, another PR puff piece that has no substance.
Even if it is not a direct award, Arista can still benefit from this releationship.
Would like to find out more about the relationship with Wyle Labs and the CERDEC REDUCE program. Sounds like a terrific oppty for Arista. But haven't found any info or links that describes this specific Army iniative or a notice of award from CERDEC that outlines the relationship. If this is a procurement award then there has to be public posting from the US Army CERDEC or Wyle Labs or some agency associated with the REDUCE program. Is this a fed or state project?
If anyone has a link to the official award announcement that would be cool! What I have found just pings back to CRADA which is not procurement but paid collaboration. Meaning Arista doesn't receive funds, Wyle Labs does as the fed cannot issue checks to private cos in CRADA.
But a link to the procurement award would clear that up. Links anyone? Would expect that link would be posted on their site. Not the PR link, but the link to CERDEC notice of awards under the REDUCE program. from the US Army. Haven't found any links on that program. Is this a classified project?
congrats on award. well deserved.
the recent pump, although nice to see should be balanced with reality. It is still under .20cents per share pre reverse split. value is still significantly down.
long way to go.
anyone have a link to the Army or Wyle Labs press release or partnership report for this award? and terms of it?
Happy New Year. Any resolutions from the board?
Haven't heard from Merle in a while. I recall something mentioned about the "fat lady and singing".....
Odd. Wonder what is next?
I would be interested in knowing how the option purchase is a good sign, long term or short term?
The spread on this stock today tells me the shorts are in and the market maker shut them down. The spreads was at one point almost a dollar. Without this high spread this stock could have cratered. Only the market maker can save it now [IMO], but I wonder from whom...
Would reserve judgement on "good sign". These are options. And not exactly a big bet at $1.35 with 57000 shares. Note that that low volume option (I would assume a long call) "pumped" the price up to $1.44 the very next trading day. Weird buy [IMO]. hope no one sacked their restaurant biz to make this happen..,,,
Could have already executed and sold, netting .09 cents a share, but i am no option expert so my crystal ball is fuzzy with lightning strikes.
Agreed. Their history keeps speaking against them. Must have been something they said...
http://innovationtrail.org/post/windtamer-drifting-pennsylvania
yet another example of fluff and puff.
Yawwn!!
Another wordsmithed press release that said "we didn't do what we said we would do...yet again".[imo]
Maybe their CFO can explain "booked orders" and how it is GAAP(and not the place you buy clothes) vs. recognized revenue. Cuz recognized revenue for 2010 was $494K (per income statement), but according to Schlitz it was .8 Million or $800K for 2010 "booked order"..so that being said this co. has a history of falling short by at least 1/2 of the booked orders claimed to recognized revenue...post fact.
Like another wordsmithed report on their flower device, we should assign a negative augmentation factor of -2.0x to any press release on "booked orders" [imo & lmfao!!]
So did you see the swing this "stock" did to day. .51 - 1.49. Holy Cow. Who shorted? Straddler paradise.
Que pasa - has anyone noticed that the reverse didnt happen on 12/22 or is this an optical event that adjusts later. Maybe they are paying attention.
Happy Holidays
Wind is not their money maker, PODS are.
Geez Merle, how much more actual evidence do you need to cool the cheerleading.
No one here said they were going to make $25M this year. no one here believes they will be around next year. They have barely made $500K and burned over $2m in G&A. Not good. You listed cos that have survived a reverse...those are established multinational cos, not startups. You are comparing apples against a turd-blossom[IMO]. Nice try, not buyin it.
Their only money makers are rosy press releases that are "estimates of the forecasts that will happen only during the winter solstice, after the vernal equinox when all planets align, provided there was a third blue moon on Tuesday in May and we are all stricken with illiteracy disease on
Monday"
Peace out
i checked them out. BWAHHAA,BWAHHAA and I bet their flower power is even better than that 8.0 thinggie...that's not sayin much. no challenge to conventional designs (3 bladed HAWT)[IMO]. looks like a canvas duct to me..of course, the company has rated their own product...and decided in the interests of product marketing to not get involved with AWEA/SWCC and other IEC standard ratings....for expediency of course.
btw mssg(s) recvd. i know of him as one but also the other one is still there and is not usually listed alongsided the nightmare.. i mean "dream team"[IMO]
Do tell us!!! from your perspective how that went down.
spot on. any data from the intertek test or any other test besides the rubbish links on the their website would be appreciated if you have access to it. POD is not just "me2" product but "me100".
who or what is the name of the co., that you mentioned from Henrietta? would be curious to know.
Well put. Just received some shareholder info in the mail. Looks like reverse split is going to be on or before 12/22/11.
What is noteworthy amongst the legalese is
1. Issued shares is 500,000,000 now and will remain that way. So no change. Redeaux!! see earlier post on crystal ball perspective.
2. Board/Shareholders approved, but may change last minute based on [input factors].
Note to Board/Major Shareholder(s):
-you are a development company despite press releases from 2009/10 that say you are not a development company.
-Read these posts.
-It won't matter that your a penny stock now. Your still a "penny stock" at $1.60. Forget about the optics. Investors aren't as dumb as you think they are. They can read.
-You want to emerge out of this wormhole in the right universe, then, buy back shares for Treasury and see [Hypothetical Scenario post].
-Don't split.
Peace Out
Thanks for the share. I have already resigned myself to the loss.
There is more to it than writing off a loss here. Damage already done has repurcussions
Information gained from this has future value in my opinion.
Beat regards
Hypothetical Scenario
1. Certify product ASAP, no matter what the numbers may be.
2. Cap salary as a function of burn rate.
3. Distance yourself from wordsmithed reports that hang like an albatross.
4. settle lawsuit immediately or drop it entirely.
Get with the program.
Unfortunately, this company's history speaks against you. Curious- what price did you buy it @. I have disclosed my dca price, what is yours? I read an interesting article about SEC compliance OTCBB. Quite often, mssg. boards such as these are driven largely in part by co. insiders, particularly the investor relations dept.
I hope that is not the case in this matter. I will assume that it is not and take you at your word.
But contrary to what you claim, the spurts of information that trickles out has done nothing to move this slug of a company forward. 2 years of missed targets vs. company press releases is a RED FLAG to any investor that can well...READ.
Best Regards
OH. I am a shareholder. Wouldn't care about this if otherwise. Will be watching closely going forward.
Who are the cheerleaders? I know of one.
Salary Check!(in case you haven't already seen it)
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=601459&ticker=ULBI:US
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=83750876&ticker=ASPW:US&previousCapId=51199398&previousTitle=ARISTA%20POWER%20INC
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=83428134&ticker=ASPW:US&previousCapId=51199398&previousTitle=ARISTA%20POWER%20INC
will find the rest.
I believe the fat lady has left the stage already,
after singing "60 million [farcical] lawsuit".
Startups don't always die of natural causes, some commit suicide. and this one appears to have just slit it's wrist.[in my opinion]. Time will tell....what time is it again?
The team, in my opinion, is anything but good. I won't throw punches individually. Collective failure.
The only chance for a resurrection is LBO/private equity turnaround, and goodbye shareholders and all of
Arista team and board. This one is ready for the vulture investors. Who knows, another name change, de-list, and in a few years they might come back. But as of now, there appears to be no exit [in my opinion].
Startups [from my experience] goes m&a for exit or P/E (private equity LBO). Rarely will any startup go big board IPO on a national exchange(NASDAQ et al).
When is that reverse split supposed to happen? We are in second half of Dec.
Passion for product and development in renewables is what makes a company sustainable and viable despite lackluster sales. I know this...I am knee deep in it. I have followed this co before they were OTC. I relate to the struggle of starting something out of nothing. This company is in fact 11 years old or at the very least the idea is and from strictly a founder's perspective, there is no greater reward than to see the product out there and team in place. I say this with baited breath, rev does not matter as long as the producit is viable and the team + founder + investors are aligned at this early stage. No alignment here.
The founder that brought them here is gone. I personally don't know him nor do I know the full story on his departure. This team has no passion for renewable energy and creating a sustainable enterprise. In my opinion, they were angling for a dipshit flip to UltraLife that did not materialize. Why didn't the m and a happen is the question that has me scratching my head. Are they viable as a stand-alone? I don't know. It is apalling that there was no mention of a lawsuit brought against them first from UltraLife back in September? That did not come to light until Arista suit back (counter-suit?) whooops they left that out of the filings didn't they. Can't hide from it now. is arista the new patent troll and who is driving this. A lawsuit this size against a small player like Ultralife is mind boggling. I don't know much about Ultralife, but it is questionable that Ulife is even worth $60m. Which brings me back toy original post. who or what EXACTLY is Arista Power? No confidence here. Kiss that bet I made goodbye. Good point on the cheerleaders. It is a free board after all. isn't it cherrie.
crystal ball perspective...is it cracked?
simple numbers
11/09-IPO or day's high $2.60
12/11-pre reverse split .08
after split at price of .08 or day of record (does it really matter?) 1:20 split.
.08 cents becomes $1.60... apply trendline now..
12/12 - .10 cents before 2nd reverse split. should i short this for any chance of ROI?
dear sirs,
if you are to kindly provide us with $2.9M for the fiscal year 2011 G&A, we will happily use it to provide $509K in revenue. we will also further dilute your investment in subsequent placement/tranches/new offerings. we will save the best news for 2013 where we have booked sales of (wait for it, here it comes...$1 Billion dollars).
For clarity, that was a quik list. And schools and Labs compete all the time through product licensing and incubators, probably where Arista needs to be. It doesn't matter what stage, all that matters are verifiable results.
So for objectivity, here is some deeper insight on why they are and will be laggards in storage, grid or distributed and any other product they throw against the wall for stickiness in my opinion. Click link to read.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/12/hype-busters-from-lux-research-explain-grid-based-energy-storage
If they are, as you claim they are, MRPS and POD driven company focusing on mobile renew dist. power gen and storage for peak demand,
Then why
1. Sell solar with a strategic like Helios as an installer,
2. Develop DAWTS (flower power!!) for sale and advertise it like it is the next best invention this side
of the hobbit shire,
3. Sell micro turbines that compete directly against SWWP-those may be SWWP's micro turbines for all I
know.
Did someone forget their Ritalin w/coffee when they drew this up?
If they are going to be or are the company focused on the product u say they are, then where is the certification, where are these phantom sales orders that are perpetually on the books but never land?
Where is it? I would not be bashing them had they actually gained customer traction. Look at their history in wind. It works...oops it doesn't work...ok it works at 90 ft, maybe sometimes but you (consumer) won't get any green credits cuz it is not certified or we don't want to spend the money since we are doing something else.
Who wants a $60k turbine that might work. Who wants a $300k pod that might save you some money provided of course it is programmed right. Again, no qualifying studies, agency cert. or pilot project to point to thar say the pod and MRPS will work. 1st rule of product development-someone other than the OEM must certify the widget, otherwise, pass the bong
Correction---Boeing as is solar city is doing or starting a massive solar rooftop program. oh yeah, since Arista is in solar now, how do they plan on handling solar marketing...waiting for the phone to ring...maybe they can do the installations for Boeing and Solar City.
If they want to try to run all up against the big boys....
maybe they should start making electric jet engines to take on GE while they are it...
Hey I know a couple guys that have installation licenses for residential solar...should we get a patent for it!!!
I am not a spokesman for any of these, but here is why,
The short list-Prudent energy, A123,, Viridity, MIT, NREL and that's just the first few you will see when you bing or google energy storage. I think Boeing is getting innon the action not to mention the hundred other startups trying to conquer energy storage in renewables world wide.
And oh yeah-grid efficiency startups that have more in funding than this co has in market cap. Did they forget about net metering and wide area renewable networks that may eliminate the need for energy storage completely.
What is so different about Arista Power and their invisible pods and the LEGIONS of other competent startups that are better funded and have core product in energy storage-not dabbling or spitting out more product, but optimizing. Arista is just getting started in pods after 11 years of existence? And nothing special about their big juice box - parent pending or not. That lawsuit with UltrALife seems like the desperation move before bankruptcy.
It is spray and pray product development. And they are behind the power curve....
final note to arista'a mgmt team ( and i use the term loosely), put the crack pipe away and get some clear vision already.