Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
MrC... good question. They say the darkest hour is just before dawn. I feel that in the investment world, often times it is just before they turn out the lights permanently.
That's Great, but it still has a several thousand per cent to go to recoup what I have put into this science experiment over the years. One would think that one of these days something would stick to the wall. lol
Thank you Teq, glad to learn you are entertained, perhaps this board needs some humor injected into it now and then. Because certainly the share price is nothing to smile about these days. I always appreciate and enjoy your contributions as board critic! lol
Natscore I think most of us long time investors agree with you. There was anti reflective coating, the Chinese partnership, black silicone, some more minor players interested, laser all back contacts, and still no one willing to make a deal. Provini is a good guy and I feel he has worked very hard, but he doesn't seem to be able to close a deal. It's past time for some new leadership. If this technology is so leading edge and still no one will take it, then perhaps it is time to crowdfund a small facility.
Nice one 4stocksup1, but you forgot to put sarcasm in parenthesis at the end of your post. Perhaps if we are lucky Chuck will announce a new science experiment that will give the stock a slight uptick for a few days.
Teq, your post brought a smile to my face! My grandfather used to do that with his dogs one they got old and lazy and wouldn't go out to the pasture and herd the cows in to be milked.
My house was built in 1986, I have the original A/C unit, it's only needed a few minor repairs over the years. The last technician started laughing when he saw it, said it was older than he was. I did the math, newer ones are more efficient and would save me $25 to $35 a month during cooling season. To replace it would cost between 5 to 8k, plus the newer ones have an average life expectancy of only about 8 to 10 years because of the cheaper materials. So it doesn't make sense to replace my old one, until it can no longer do the job.
I am sure at least a few manufacturers have done the math on Natcore's technology and have come to the conclusion the ROI isn't that good, otherwise they would be retooling. It's not like solar companies have mountains of cash available, most are drowning in debt and are struggling to get by.
Let's be realistic, Natcore has good technology, but it is not an investment, it is a speculation. I have been holding and adding and averaging down since 2009. Although as time passes it is harder and harder to stay in a positive frame of mind on this one. This may very well be a $100 a share stock one day, like Chuck says, but I don't think Chuck or myself will be around to see it.
Why there are no takers for Natcore's technology.
1. It's not about who does the who does the manufacturing, it's who owns the technology. Chuck has been spouting this braggadocio for years. That might impress investors, but it seems a rather supercilious thing to say and expect to make friends with manufacturers.
2. Manufacturers have huge plants with a lot of specialized equipment in it. To use Natcore's tech you either have to build a new plant, or disrupt your production for a rebuild. Plus what do you do with all the useless furnaces and other equipment you just took out? It is not like there is a thriving market for the stuff, and they are likely still paying it off.
3. Many manufacturers are also in the install business, they don't give a ratzazz what the efficiency rating is, or the cost to make it, because you the customer are covering that cost. Give Solar City a call, the salesman will ask you all kinds of questions about you previous electric bills, roof pitch and construction, nearby trees where you live so they can see who your provider is, and check for feed in tariffs etc, Ask then what the current efficiency rating is on what they are installing, the reply will likely be, I don't know for sure, I think it's about 19.7 now. I can call the warehouse and check. They don't care because they are going to make money either way, whether the efficiency is 19% or 24% and whether it costs a $1 a watt or $2 a watt.
What if you do build a cheaper more efficient cell? Who is going to buy them? Do you have the sales force in place to sell them, the installation crews ready to install them?
It's like Delorean who invented a better car antenna embedded in the windshield, then he wanted to leave GM and build his own car. He wanted to collect a licensing fee for his antennas, GM told him, ef you, the olds ones worked just fine.
Granted there are probably people who would buy a new manufacturing facility, if it was built and a turn key operation. Until then we'll have to hope Vietnam will eventually build one for us.
New study calls for US solar policy reform
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170323150253.htm
My niece lives and works in Melbourne, she's home for a visit, I asked last Sunday what's been going on over there. They were all gung-ho solar for a while and things have cooled off a lot since two years ago, due to regime change. I doubt there will be much progress unless a new government takes over.
Seems most people agree we need to shift to solar, but there aren't many people willing to invest in new manufacturing.
Chuck said a while back they could build a manufacturing facility for about $20m. Personally I think he should try crowdfunding a facility and sell it as a turnkey operation.
Teq, do you have access to the hialpha report? It seems to be a rather complicated process to join.
New record efficiency for BSi.
http://www.gizmag.com/black-silicon-solar-cell-efficiency-record/37579/#comments
Let me help you understand. Go to you favorite podcasting venue, look up Planet Money, and search for show #399 Can You Patent a Steak? That show will help you understand a little more about patents.
Perhaps you need to learn about patents as well. You don't need to develop a new technology to be issued a patent, just a new method of using it.
Great find Mr C. I consider that to be the best interview to date. Thanks for posting!
It is my understanding that Eurotron is a company that manufactures the equipment that manufactures PV cells among other things. They already have a back contact process, but are interested in Natcore's because it is a cheaper process. Natcore wouldn't see any revenue until the process is integrated into Eurotron's PV cell manufacturing process and it sells that new process as part of a complete manufacturing unit.
For those of you that follow the solar industry, you know that for the last few years there has been a glut of solar PV's on the market. Manufacturers have been closing production lines, some have gone out of business, and others have been struggling to keep their heads above water. Solar City's recent announcement to build a new production plant in New York is the first I have heard of any such project. I feel this depressed environment has been a factor in the lack of utilization of Natcore's technology.
There is good news, China's PV manufacturers were sold out for the first quarter a few weeks back. This will make room for an increase in production and the possibility of putting in some new manufacturing lines moving forward. I feel that Natcore is more likely to have success in supplying the tech for new production facilities, rather than retro-fitting existing lines. I think 2015 could be an interesting year for shareholders.
http://press.ihs.com/press-release/design-supply-chain/most-chinese-tier-1-pv-module-suppliers-sold-out-until-second-quar
How's that saying go? You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. Natcore has introduced 3 next generation technologies, and manufacturers continue to sit on their hands.
The results are commendable. Although this is not a solar panel, it is a solar cell that requires concentrated light. This is generally supplied by a mirror lined parabolic dish or a Fresnel lens, and requires it be mounted on a sun tracking device. This type of cell is only practical for special applications, and is unlikely you'd want several of these on your roof.
I feel part of Natcore's inability to ink a deal has been the stagnant solar power manufacturing industry during the last few years. I just read good news, two of the top ten manufacturers have plans to increase production this year. Hopefully the slack years are behind us, and Natcore will get a piece of the increase in production.
Thanks for sharing the video link! I liked what he said near the very end.
Mac,I was wondering the same thing, maybe a black silicon door knob, or water filter, air filter etc.
I don't think the Buffalo/Rochester speculation is all that wild either. Synchronicity works in some rather strange ways.
Thanks for posting!
Thanks for the post Donfig,
This is pretty exciting news, and somewhat of a surprise as I was expecting the first agreement to come from China. I am sure that I am not the only person on this board wearing a smile today. Let's hope this is just the first of many more agreements to come!
I have been buying some of those nonsensical shares off the bargain table. I feel rather certain even if there is no agreement this year, the sp will still rise over a dollar before year's end. I am already dreaming about the nonsensical little vacation I am going to take when it does. :)
The most telling statement of Jesse's last two posts was where Carlson says, “We believe that we have all the technology required to develop a commercial product within the next two years and may be able to accelerate this process with the appropriate partner,”
Kungfu, in the video that Donfig so kindly posted, Chuck says the efficiency is not so important, as they were able to achieve 15% in a garage, manufacturers can tweak their results and achieve 20%.
LOL Teq someone once told me there was no such thing as a dumb question, and no you didn't answer it. I was curious as to who the independent company was that did the research on the savings of BSi and LPD? As in UL Underwriters Laboratories etc. Your thoughts on the second part of my post are well taken, and you're right probably was a dumb thought.
Speaking of percentages, solar has reached a milestone this year. 1% of the world's power is provided by solar. Solar is following the same curve as computing speeds did. Doubling about every two years. Or the curve for the Human Genome project. The Human Genome project at 7.5 years was at 1%, and considered a failure, but then the growth was exponential, 1% became 2%, then 4%, then 8% and in the following 7.5 it was 100%. As for computing speeds, my cell phone has more power than computers the size of big buildings did when I got out of high school.
If solar continues to follow this curve, and it can with technology like Natcore's, we will have 100% of the world's power needs supplied by solar by 2027. That's a mere 14 years! Nascrazy, Kungfu, some food for thought when you guys are feeling a bit frustrated at slow progress being made now.
I'd be curious to know who conducted the independent study? I'd rather see an independent study of how many solar manufacturers plan to upgrade their manufacturing process in the next year, to one that can cut their costs by 20 per cent or more.
What crap did you call me on TEQ? The information anyone capable of reading the English language and deciphering the recent President's messages that certain technologies would be ready around the 4th quarter? In fact I believe you were the one kind enough to post those messages a few months ago. As for my prediction that when you get cranky on this board, the share price goes up, I was spot on! LOL
I think the recent surge is related to the Seeking Alpha article, but who knows? Frankly, I don't believe there is any inside knowledge or upcoming announcements that some privileged entities are privy to.
I do believe Natcore has some excellent patents, and the company is working hard to bring them to commercialization. I can assure you I am not privy to anything, nor have I ever had a conversation with Mr. Provini. Your accusation that I would have someone believe I have inside information from Chuck or anyone for that matter, is unfounded and ludicrous.
There was a rumor a while back that there may a deal resulting in some revenue in the 4th quarter. I increased my position in Natcore recently, looks as though others are as well.
I recently read that people are divesting their money from fossil fuels at a record pace. Renewables seems a logical place to move to. Recently a lot of money has gone into solar financing, and installation companies. That spectrum of the market seems a bit over bought to me now, perhaps some capital is starting to flow to the technological side again.
I've been following this board for a very long time now, and whenever Teq starts getting grumpy, it is a good sign, it is usually followed by a huge appreciation in share price.
Great volume! I have no idea what a patent like that might be worth, but if it can help blind people to see again, it is a miracle!
As an added bonus, the first 10 people that sign up for and receive the retina transplant, will also be able to "see" when Natcore is actually going to show some revenue.
Grundoro, Hey buddy, have a great time down in the jungle! I am sure like myself, the board will miss your positive and insightful comments! No doubt you'll be in the canopy visiting relatives. Looking forward to your safe return!
"Maybe they should have just gone for broke and raised the $10 million or so needed to commercialize the quantum dot tandem solar cell, if raising money is so easy!"
Ah... but that would require common sense, and a modicum of cajones.
After 3 years it should by now be plain as day that no company is going to pay to lease technology. That should have been obvious after their brief engagements with the Italian and Chinese solar companies.
Excluding some miracle, Natcore's only chance is to go for broke, crowd source or whatever, and raise the funds needed to manufacture the next generation of solar voltaics. Nobody leased the AR box technology, and nobody is likely to lease the quantum dot technology either. Do it yourself or retire!
Cosmic, The thing that I found interesting about the article, is that the process involves an inexpensive coating put on top of the solar cell. Seems like a process that would be right up Natcore's alley.
Yes, it would be nice to know more about what exactly they'll be doing with all the extra space. If they wanted us to know, they would have told us. Besides a few additional offices, one can come up with many speculations. Maybe they need the space to work on their roll to roll quantum dot technology, or fine tune commercial size coating machines. Hope we find something out soon! The suspense is too much!
In other news..... Board members may find this interesting. A simple process to boost efficiency.
http://cleantechnica.com/2013/04/19/inexpensive-solar-cell-coating-may-lead-to-big-increases-in-efficiency-new-technique-allows-one-photon-to-knock-loose-two-electrons/
Grundoro, I appreciate your thought that this company is a scam and a sell. Hopefully you hold enough shares to sell it down to about .50 a share, so I can accumulate a lot more.
The solar industry is in contraction right now, and they are all doing their very best just to stay afloat, while the real scam, the fossil fuel industry is building their house of cards on fracking, cheap coal, and deeper offshore wells.
That house of cards will come tumbling down soon, and when it does, companies like Natcore will rise to the occasion. Board followers should remember that Natcore does not need Bsi to be a game changer, their (patented) LPD process alone saves energy, and reduces polution immensely over current manufacturing processes.
"There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills."
Buddha
Good Question Nascrazy, I thought the recent President's message was the best yet! I had an order in today but it didn't fill, will keep trying. In retrospect 2012 was a pretty good year for me in regards to Natcore. Bought a lot when it was low, sold a little when it was high. Happy Holiday to everyone on this board, I am most grateful for eveyone's input!
GG2, of all the renewable loan guarentees, only about 5% of them have defaulted. This program was started in the previous administration, and continued by BO and company. It solves nothing to point the finger at either administration. As with any investment, there are risks involved. I think we as a nation are fortunate that many of the renewable energy investments are starting to look as though they may have a positive impact.
Full Disclosure, I am a radical humanist. ;o)
GG2, of all the renewable loan guarentees, only about 5% of them have defaulted. This program was started in the previous administration, and continues by BO and company. It solves nothing to point the finger at either administration. As with any investment, there are risks involved. I think we as a nation are fortunate that many of the renewable energy investments are starting to look as though they may have a positive impact.
Full Disclosure, I am a radical humanist. ;o)