nope didn't..., but i should have looked for the same... oh well, today's loss whiped out my previous gains and some, but nothing i can't handle. never play these plays with entire account! only with what you can loose. so on to the next play. sometimes you win, sometimes you loose. i honestly thought this would run longer, guess i was wrong... oh well.

good for you!!!!; i sold yday at 1.56 (from 1.40) and bought again today at 1.56 figuring it would still be promoted... ouch... we'll we all loose some of these plays...

f*&^k that was very unexpected cost me 60%.... ouch....

link to full disclaimer:
http://worldstreetfundamentals.com/nwsltr/disclaimer.php
ps: what doesn't go down must go up

finally a new email update by WSF and Breakout Finder:


Strategy and Outlook for PUNL
Monday September 24, 2012
We are pleased to release our strategy and outlook for our top quarter pick of Q3: Punchline Resources Ltd. (PUNL). In little over a month, PUNL has seen a steady rate of development and the presence of consistent upward pressure in the marketplace.

Technicals are setting up for a large breakout, forming a prime example of an ascending triangle. The last 14 days have established an unbreakable base of support at 1.55. This is a by-the-book continuation pattern and they won't get any easier than this. Add it to your radar and watch for the 1.60 breakout.

Fundamentals have improved dramatically and with the announcement of reserves near double PUNL's current capitalization we can see considerable upside from current levels.

PUNL Highlights
The proximity of the company's projects to other major producers also adds credence to our thinking. Only 10 miles to the southeast sits Newmont Mining, one of the majors in the industry. 54 miles to the west sits a lower grade mine operated by Allied Nevada. In fact, Allied Nevada was indeed trading at near an identical level as Punchline only 4 years ago, a living testament of a small and relatively unknown company becoming a large and successful player.

Not only is PUNL's location directly in the middle of some of the biggest and the best players in the sector, creating a clear-cut case for direct comparables, but its reserves are also at a higher grade than neighboring Allied Nevada. At over 2.8 times greater concentration of gold per ton than Allied Nevada, we already know the economics of the project are viable.

In our discussions with geologists experienced in the area, the cutoff point used for estimates is indeed greater than the entire reserves contained in Allied Nevada's Hycroft Mine. In layman's terms, PUNL's neighbor (54 miles away) was able to produce over 900 thousand ounces of gold with lower grades than Winnemucca. For us, the conclusion is nothing short of extraordinary: PUNL has a highly accessible, valuable and verified reserve far in excess of its current value.

Forward Strategy
With all this taken into account, we could not be more satisfied with our selection. Ensure you have added PUNL to your radar, as our featured quarter picks generally begin to gain traction around this timeframe. It would not surprise us if PUNL entered the 3.00 level within the coming weeks.

SDS looks over sold IMHO with some good positive divergence in the stochastics and RSI

thanks, I haven't been much on Ihub since it's the same old story over and over again, so not much to learn.... (don't take it personal). BUT, I was moderator for IDN* and followed that one very closely and helped a lot of people to make some coin. I posted my IDN* trades real time (then I profited on each 10-15% price increase, since I wasn't familiar with the promotors) Maybe I'll post my PUNL trades here too, but now I am in for the long run, aiming at 100%. If it get's there I'll be out and never look back. That said, PUNL is on track exactly like IDN*. Says enough IMHO

their previous promo (IDN*) lasted 30 trading days (May 7-June 22). PUNL is now in trading day 10. IDN* went from ~2.20 on May 7 to 2.42 on May 18 (10 trading days), with the last 3 of those days flat. That's 10% in 2 weeks... PUNL is now at +11% in 2 weeks (using 1.55 as price). Seems pretty similar to me.

IDN* took off the Monday after, May 21. I expected PUNL to do the same coming Monday.

Based on similar patterns, gains, length of promo (3 months). I expected PUNL to run through week of Oct 15-19. Until proven otherwise of course!.

News keeps coming out, massive bid support, all looking good to me.

central banks/bankers

thanks and I will watch my language in the future, I am just frustrated beyond believe with all this CB crap that has now been an ongoing circus for 4 years. This tinkering with the markets will end bad, really bad.

yes, VIX has broken out of it's month(s) long channel. Weekly MACD for SPX (and other markets) is not making the "anticipated" cross... looking all very bearish. Take a look at the NDX... looks really, really bleak.

back to VIX, bulls are hanging onto it with less than 1 point. Keep SPX:VIX 68 in mind. Below: sell-off. Above: bouancy.

RCKS, I still favor that count (minor 2 now, 3 down to follow as well) as well. So far the looks of the rally have been far from bullish, and with all the whipsawing it starts to exhaust both bulls and bears alike (which side your are gonna chose???). That's the whole intend and purpose of a wave 2: bring everybody to the wrong side of the trade (bulls and bears alike), not only one camp. Once this puppy reaches upper 1300s, euphoria will be off the charts (we'll hear probably DOW 15,000 claims, the bear camp has been deserted, etc) so even a short breach of 1400 would be really ideal -though from a TA not necessary and then, booooom, the rug is pulled away...

Stochastics are slowly becoming more and more negatively diverged, and another higher high (say ~20points above 1380s, thus bringing the SPX to 1400) would really add to that; setting them up for a nice spank down.

What also adds to this idea is that the VIX is getting low, whereas the SPX:VIX ratio is really high. No fear, a lot of complacency etc. Bulls need a lot of fear to initiate a bull run (VIX in the 30-40s or so, and SPX down to similar levels). For the bear camp the opposite is of course true, which is what we're starting to see now. Hence, there's simply not much room for any more complacency. In fact during the last run up; the SPX:VIX ratio will start to decrease (VIX increases), until it all hits home.

Keep on eye on this.

thanks! great chart and good point.

What I am looking at is the VIX and SPX:VIX ratio. Currently the VIX is barely trading above 16 and the SPX:VIX ratio is at 85+. (below 67.5 is bear territory, above that is bull) Total complacency in other words. If we get a MACD crossing, there's not much room for much more complacency unless the VIX drops below 10 or something, which would be unprecedented. Complacency is the end of each bull market (SPX:VIX was at ~100 early March, when the peak was in..., this was the highest reading of at least the past 3 yrs, so there's not much room to go from here -85- to 100... but there's much more room to the downside). Instead, we want to see the VIX high, and therewith the SPX:VIX low to see the bulls run up on a wall of worries, not the other way around.

If the MACD crosses over, then I'd be very careful for a bull trap here, simply because there's not much room to grow on. But, let it happen. Let it go to 1390s, do the May 5 gap fill, run the VIX to 14s and SPX:VIX to 100+ and then BOOOM all bulls will wake up sooner or later looking at a market that just dropped 100 points over night.

how can Washington change the 1% if the 1% owns/is Washington (which we all knew, so that's nothing new...)

The only way is to blow it all up to pieces: white house, capitol, pentagon, banks, etc. That's my solution. Start from scratch. It will hurt, hurt real bad. Cost many lives.

But insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.... So, if our presidents and representatives are owned by the 1%, why expect that electing new presidents and representatives the same way as we've done over the past will change anything. It will change NOTHING. Its insane to expect change by doing the same thing that never changed anything over and over again.

sorry, I don't want to bash, but I don't think weekly charts mid-week are of much use... anything can happen between Wednesday and Friday, which would change your weekly chart completely and send false signals now. It's better to wait with weekly charts until the actual trading week is over.

i agree it's pretty sideways the last month due to excessive overlap. Note that the bears in one month brought the markets back to where the started in 2012, which took the bulls 4 months.... I think that speaks for it self. Either this is wave (ii) up with (iii) down soon to come. Or we're in C up of an abc-x-abc correction which will finish wave II. With III down to come after.

The fact that there's so much overlap suggest to me this is merely a corrective wave, not the start of a new bull run (e.g. see the difference between the last 2 months and the first 4 months of the year)

I hear ya, that's IMHO mainly because the VIX is (still) low. Watch the SPX:VIX ratio. If over 68 it's bullish (right now it's at ~73), if under 68 it's bearish. VIX has to be above 20 to turn this ratio bearish. With bullish I don't necessarily mean up, up, up days and green candles, it also means orderly selling (as we're experiencing now). If it goes above 20, then we'll see some much stronger selling... Hnece, there's currently no fear and thus complacency... but given current levels where the wheels are about to fall of the wagon, that's VERY dangerous IMHO.

Since the current trend is down (until proven otherwise) and since the SPX and DJI have now closed below the ascending trendline that connected the June 4 low and June 28 low, the uptrend is -to say the least- becoming rather damaged IMHO. Of course it can print right back into that ascending channel, but given the fact that MACD for SPX, DJI, NYA, COMPQ all have crossed from above: sell signal, I give the bears more odds.

In addition, the market is still in a lower highs, lower low mode: also bearish.

Finally, the daily parabolic SAR flipped from below the candles to above the daily candles yesterday (DJI) and today (SPX and others), which is also bearish.

Looking at the "Evidence", the bulls are in severe trouble...

Thanks! Does it look like a 5 wave decline now? IMHO wave 3 down has started, especially since each up wave has a rather distinct abc character, and because daily MACDs on all major indices (DJI, SPX, COMP) have now crossed over from above: sell signal.

But, time will tell.

POKERSAM, No worries. I am well aware of the EWT count of the market, and was just wondering if you meant today's possible intra day Wave 3 up (at a much smaller degree), from 1336 to 1344, or if you were indeed talking about the W3 down as the market has now likely worked it's way through corrective wave 2 up, though there is some ambiguity if another C up will be added at this point (going to ~1400s, or if indeed minor wave 3 has now started. Time will tell soon enough. Even if we go to 1406 (which appears at current levels a huge stretch, but the market has done weirder things) wave 3 down will happen.

thanks, note that with Pretzel often his alternative count appears to come true...

LOL, do you mean a wave 3 up or down?

lol, thanks. time will tell.

awesome chart! I agree that the whole run up since early june is more corrective than anything else. Note that today the DOW closed below its "steep uptrend" lower trendline (the one that you have drawn for SPX starting at June 4th low, going up through the June 28 low - and/or june 24/25 - lows); I don't know what to make of that. As well as that the MACD on the DOW has crossed over from above and that of the SPX almost. This would be a sell signal... the next few trading sessions will tell if we get a new higher high before a big leg down, or if the big leg down has already started

why? at least I made almost max profit for my trading strategy, I am now looking at a lower risk re-entry point.

I agree with pretzel. Some other sites I follow r in the same boat: either we sink or we'll find land... Tuff market to trade...

Great day. Sold/flipped my 2nd position today again. 1st was from high teens to mid twenties. 2nd was from low twenties to .29. Weeeee!!!

Starting to look overbought to me. Waiting for the next (big) dip.

Hmmm, tony has a wave 1 consisting of 3 waves. That's not possible. It's the wave 1 up from what he calls "major 2" that I am referring to. That up wave is as clear as an ABC wave can be. Since its thus a 3 waves wave, it can't be a wave 1. Those are always impulsive and thus consist of 5 waves. Back to the drawing board...???

I tend to agree, though that's not the only target he has (1379, 1390 etc). we'll see where we go from here!!!

hi and welcome!

looking good indeed!

decent new review article on ONCS here: http://marketplayground.com/2012/07/06/oncosec-medical-inc-otconcs-in-focus/

why is Pretzel out of date???

Many looking for 1406. But, Before it gets there at all, resistance at 1375 needs to be broken, which hasn't happened yet! In order to be able to do that I think a retreat to mid 1350s is in order first (kinda refresh and regroup zone)

What "worries" me though is that "everybody" is calling for the 1400s as a top... May well happen, but often the market never does what everybody thinks it will do; rather the opposite IMHO...

Great! Thanks! I didnt want to be the charting police so to say, it's just that one either include or exclude the wicks to remain consistent. That way one doesn't fall for the charting pitfall that will show what one would like to see, instead of what it really is in the charts. That's a receipt for disaster otherwise!

nice chart. May I ask why you have the upper trend line connecting 1422 and 1415) starting at the upper wick (1422.38), but going to the close of May 1 and not through 1415.32 ? That would raise the trendline somewhat.

Parabolic SAR flipped below again: bullish. I did sell my entire position today as I missed out making a profit on the pop last week. I will most likely re-enter on further signs of strength; I am just locking in profits (with OTC's you never know IMHO and profit is profit!)

.248.... hereeeeee we gooooo!!!!

ONCS at it again. Up 11% on decent volume today. Keep an eye on it over the coming days IMHO.

So we did break Friday's high and that could be it: C is either 1368 or 1406. Hmmmm, 1366.35 is awefully close to 1368. Now it's probably going sideways until tomorrow (half day only).

ISM was disappointing (below 50: manufacturing is contracting... First time in 3 yrs!!!) but reaction was muted, whereas based on the facts it should have seen more selling.

The uber bullish mentality since Thursday 3:30pm needs to burn off.

The higher high today may have given the MACD that what it needed and is now in line with other stochastics and RSI which show negative divergence... Spank down is around the corner. Thursday's jobless claims could be the trigger for that...

Lol, your previous feeling was right. Going up on very decent (buy) volume too. Almost 900K shares traded so far; at this pace it will hit over 1M today.