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Hello Old Friends!
Yes, I am alive and (mostly) well. Still actively trading/investing. I hang out and post regularly on the Leavitt Brothers site...a great bunch of people. Reminds me of the Ninjas in the early years, but with a resident stock picking and market reading guru who keeps the good ideas coming.
Roy, I'm very happy to see that you're still at it and seemingly feisty as ever. I read about your wife...hope she is continuing on the road to recovery.
It's been a very eventful, life-changing and personally challenging couple of years for me. But I'll save all of that for another time. For now I just wanted to stop by here and say hi, since Farooq invited me to do so recently. I will pop in at every now and then to catch up.
My best!
Dave
Ninja's, Worldcrossing wants us to believe that the regular site is fixed...yet again. Shall we try it one more time?
I have a profile?
You would think that a standard feature of a profile would be an age incrementer on one's birthday.
Roy, I haven't tried any options since the name change took effect. I do remember seeing a notice from AMTD that old fashioned Streamer wouldn't support the new symbols and they recommended we finally change to Command Center. I've resisted that integrated tool because from my perspective, it is not flexible enough. I don't want anyone telling me how to set up my desktop. I like the "mess of windows" that Streamer offers, and I have it start up in a particular format every time.
Have you called them to dicuss it?
Bill, this green bounce is on lower volume than all of the recent selling days. I'm not impressed. I'm not taking the bait, but I'm not shorting either. Cash for me until this gets sorted out.
Mom, often last week I was able to get in, see postings, but not post.
Leavitt has populated short list for the 1st time since July. No new longs added this weekend. Another first in a long time.
I guess "stuff is going down", to quote one of my favorite people.
A ha! So this is where you guys have been hangin'. I've got some catching up to do...
I'm in cash over the weekend (no long swings) for the first time in nearly a year. I feel naked.
Paid about 3% pennance getting out last week. I was a bit slow since I had some swings that were holding strong against the falling market.
The ones that I find the most useful are the 20smas on each time-frame.
Same here. 20sma or 22ema on intraday swings. Roy, the 22ema (suggested by Farley) is the only trendline I keep on my intraday Streamer charts (5, 10 or 15 min). I find that it represents S/R during trends. Less important during ranging/consolidation.
20sma is the center Bollinger Band which is very important in multiday swing trading of trending charts. Often you can trade back and forth between the 20sma and upper or lower BB piercings.
rationale as to why you draw such a line in the sand for AAPL right here, and with no protective stop.
Sorry, Roy, my first chance to answer.
You know me. I always use stops. What I was saying yesterday was that I was entering a long term position that I wasn't interested in stopping out of yesterday. So I wasn't placing a tight stop that might take me out. I want to watch the position for a few days, let it bounce around the $150 mark (which I believe will represent support...I might be wrong about that), and then set a stop. But I'll watch with a looser "mental stop" in mind, of course. I'll never lose more than 5% on any entry.
Hope that answers your question.
Dave
So what's the big deal, Paul?
The US takes some of the tax money which they have collected from us (which, if left in our pockets, could've gone toward paying down our individual debts) and....they pay down our debts with it.
Since the money's already gone out of our pockets, I can think of worse things the gov't could do with it...like spend it and NOT pay down our debts.
Hey, its just another form of proof that our tax rates are too high.
Big !!
Edit: Oops...I just used up my last post for today...hope nobody needs an urgent response from me.
20% of retirement acct in AAPL @ 150.26.
Screw it...no stop.
It'll be $200+ within 12 months.
Market in freefall now.
So much for the 1 day rally attempt.
AAPL product announcements are just incremental today.
Various iPod prices cut, screens/storage increased. New iTunes release. HD shows now available.
Jobs looked "healthy and energetic, if not a bit thin". "Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" flashed up on the screen behind him at one point, and all he said was "Enough said" and went on.
So no world shaking news, which looks like it will be a bit of a disappointment to the market. But I think AAPL's long term bottom is in with support at the major market number of $150. It's probably time to plunk it in the Rollover...but I'll wait for an intraday bottom and a test first.
Did you get beat up by the girls in the scoolyard as a kid?
Can you think of a better motive to become a lawyer?
WFR trade gone for -1/2%.
Out of the market for today...
Farooq, of course, I'm an idiot. Thanks.
(It takes margin to short....duh)
Your QLD is touching 66. I think I'd be taking the money and running here. But don't you dare listen to me!
I don't have a clue what's going on.
Join the club, Skip.
Only Roy, Farooq and Paul know what's going on...and no matter how many times they try to tell us...we just don't get it.
I'm mostly sitting back (while working my ass off milking this gravy train temporary job I've got at the moment). Only playing with a fraction of either account.
Farooq, I've probably asked you before, but...
why do you seem to prefer going long QLD rather than short QID?
Thanks,
Dave
Long WFR for a trade @ 34.77
Just looking for an oversold bounce. Very tight stop. The last time WFR popped thru its lower BB, it rallied/consolidated for a month.
Fundamentally this price is silly, of course. WFR's midQ update affirmed guidance while hinting at possible future softness in their growth rate. But the price is 60% off its high of just 5 months ago. At some point here I'll add a longer term position.
How about WFR???
Down another 12% today on no news. Geez!
I'll be plunking it into my retirement acct at the first sign of a bottom.
Farooq re QLD...
Yep, I'm afraid I'm about to lose both QLD & AAPL to stops. I'll keep only 1% on QLD and 2% on AAPL. Pitiful gains compared to those that you and Roy report every day. Dang...
Had two orders trigger this morning that I placed many moons ago
I continue to learn that lesson from time to time as well, Skip.
Whattaya think Jobs is going to say.
Well, you hit the nail on the head, Roy. The market is far more interested in how Jobs looks than what AAPL introduces.
My guess is that anything better than "the doctors have given me 3 months to live" will probably improve the stock price.
How much lower will oil go?
It's a sad day when $104 oil feels cheap.
Given the pummeling solars have received in the past couple of weeks, is the market saying that $100 oil is acceptable long term? At that price, there won't be demand for alt energy??
DUG has blasted into a new price range, today's bar above the BB. Seems like it needs at least a short rest.
Your AAPL and QLD entries look good.
Thanks, Roy, but they don't look as good as they did near the close yesterday. I got greedy and decided to hold them both overnight looking for a continuation of this bounce.
But it's feeling like it might be over pre-open. Maybe a SPY short is a better bet this morning?
Long QLD 64.60
Long AAPL 154.54
Trades only.
Couldn't get QID shorts. First time in a long time, that.
Thanks for the AAPL comments, Roy.
Yeah, it's the tea leaves that I'm asking "what the hell?" about. You know me, I really try not to fight the market.
As for AMTD, no problem for me this morning. When I get the "watch lists unavailable" message, it is almost always solved by quitting the browser and starting a new session.
Oh, and speaking of AMTD, the chart is really strong recently.
OK...did a bit of quick catch up reading.
Geez...how embarassing!
So...how do you guys think this bailout changes the big picture? Is it enough for a change of market direction (iow, back up again) or is this very short term enthusiasm?
Ultimately, it seems to me that a gov't bailout of this magnitude is hugely bad news. The market hates gov't intervention...and to be told that market forces alone can't self-regulate.
And what the hell is up with AAPL? Chart is breaking down for no good reasons that I can find. I was in an AAPL store twice this weekend and was told by 2 different "Geniuses" that sales (of Macs and iPhones) are booming. AAPL just opened their 5th store in the metro-Phoenix area with plans for a 6th before xmas.
Geez, Roy! Looks like you'll finally be able to retire today.
Paul, are you shitting me?
Holy cow.
But you're right. My head was in the sand (news wise) all weekend.
And even if I had been aware of this news, I wouldn't have had a clue how to play it.
Thanks,
Dave
Don't have time to read posts this morning but congrats to anyone who's been able to navigate this wild morning.
Market volume is extreme. What's up?
And you guys will be happy to know that IBD finally changed its market outlook back to "market in correction" today.
It has been "rally under pressure" for the past couple of weeks. But the repetitive distribution days finally did it in. And although they are "late" calling the change of direction, I have to say that from a long term perspective, they did it about as well as could be done. Heck, even yesterday, several of the indexes had held at their 50sma's. All gone today.
Trading acct has been mostly in cash for two weeks, locked in @ +43% ytd, 5% under my high set a month ago.
Except for a 10% position in long shot PIAGF, my rollover is also in cash since last Wed-Thur when the positions stopped out. It's up +7.5% for the year.
Wish I could say the same for my 401k. It took big hits the past week and is back to breakeven for the year. Grrr...
This kind of return in my retirement accounts ain't gonna cut it.
But given what the market has done this year, I guess I should be happy. Yay.
I don't know why the market is so bad today...
or yesterday.
Here's IBD's complete blog for today. Don't see much in the way of clues...
------------------------------------
Indexes Extend Losses In Late Trade
BY VINCENT MAO
Posted 9/4/2008
Sellers turned up the heat, sending stocks to new session lows late Thursday. With the exception of the Dow, the major stock indexes were poised to finish lower for the third straight session.
At 2:43 p.m. EDT, the NYSE composite dumped 3% and Nasdaq 2.8%. The Dow and S&P 500 dived 2.7% each.
Volume continued to track higher across the board.
Crude oil settled at $107.89 a barrel, down $1.46.
Chart Industries (GTLS) stumbled 4.53, or 11%, to a four-month low of 38.62. The maker of gas storage equipment hasn't seen much buying for more than two months. Its Accumulation/Distribution Rating has corroded to E from C at its July peak.
AZZ (AZZ) dropped 3.05 to 37.21 on busy trade. The electrical components maker slumped further south of its 50-day moving average.
Heavy-equipment makers got hammered after Terex (TEX) slashed its full-year forecast.
Bucyrus International (BUCY) dropped 2.57, or 5% to 50.83. The stock had been building a double-bottom base, but this week's slide voided the pattern.
Joy Global (JOYG) lost 2 points to a near eight-month low of 51.05.
Again, roughly 96 issues in the IBD 100 traded lower. The median price change was now minus-3.6%.
Buckle (BKE) bucked the trend, gaining 1.96 to 56.50. The clothing retailer was one of the few bright spots in the IBD 100.
1:15 p.m. Update: Stocks Tank In Midday Trade
By VINCENT MAO
Despite a reversal in oil prices, stocks extended losses in a broad-based sell-off midday Thursday.
At 12:40 p.m. EDT, the NYSE composite swooned 2.4% and breached its July 15 low. The Dow and S&P 500 dropped 2% each. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq lost 1.9%.
Turnover was tracking vastly higher on the Nasdaq and about even on the NYSE. Decliners swamped advancers by nearly 5-to-1 on the NYSE and about 4-to-1 on the Nasdaq.
Crude oil lost $1.97 to $107.38 after the Energy Department reported a smaller-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories.
Leaders came under fire. About 96 issues in the IBD 100 traded to the downside. The median price change in the gauge of leading stocks was minus 2.8%.
Olin (OLN) slumped 2.46, or 9%, to 23.55 in heavy trading, making it the biggest percentage loser in the IBD 100. The chemicals and ammunition maker was nearing its 200-day moving average.
Chip issues again crumbled.
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) dumped 2.19, or 9%, to 21.63, slicing its 50-day line.
NetLogic Microsystems (NETL) dropped 2.28, or 7% to 31.08 in active trading. The chipmaker had been building a handle in light volume.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index shed 2%, to its lowest level in more than five years.
America's Car-Mart (CRMT) climbed 0.85 to 20.28 in heavy trading. Before the open, the used car retailer posted fiscal Q1 earnings of 45 cents a share, up 150% and 7 cents over views. The company has delivered triple-digit growth in three of the past four quarters. Sales grew 29% to $75.7 million, also above views. America's Car-Mart is wrapping up the seventh week of a new base.
Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI) gapped up, gaining 1.67 to 44.07 on brisk trade. Goldman Sachs upgraded the drug development services firm to buy from neutral on potential of better Q3 bookings. The broker also raised its price target to 49 from 44.
11:15 a.m. EDT Update: Indexes Head Lower On Firm Volume
By ALAN R. ELLIOTT
Financials and unwinding commodity issues dragged indexes lower in late morning trade.
The Dow and the NYSE composite were 2% lower at 10:52 a.m. EDT. The Nasdaq composite was off 1.9% and the S&P 500 slipped 1.7%.
Trading volume tracked above Wednesday's levels, 2% higher on the NYSE and up 15% on the Nasdaq. The weight was clearly on the downside of the market, with more than 90% of the 197 industry groups tracked by IBD moving lower.
Oil prices remained down a shade at just above $109 a barrel. Natural gas and gold also edged lower as the dollar crept toward a sixth straight day of gains.
First Solar (FSLR) pulsed up 1.10 to 248.24 after an early jump above 255. The solar energy component maker has traded sideways, waiting for volume support, since nailing a peak in May.
Strayer Education (STRA) moved up 3.58 to 213.60 after UBS initiated coverage with a buy rating. Shares face resistance at the 10-week moving average, and are three weeks into a potential base.
On the downside, earth-mover equipment maker Terex (TEX) gapped down hard, losing 8.75 to 30.57 on big-bucket volume after lowering its '08 sales and earnings outlook. The company adjusted its full-year earnings outlook to $6.35 to $6.65 per share on sales of $10.2 billion to $10.6 billion. Prior guidance called for earnings of $6.85 and revenue between $10.5 billion to $10.9 billion.
Markets across Asia were generally lower. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 slipped to a five-month low as investors bailed out of tech stocks on fears the economic slowing would lead to reduced tech spending.
Stocks in Europe and the U.K. downshifted after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told news agencies the euro zone economic data suggest a midyear weakening of growth. But inflation remained the bank's key concern.
10:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Tumble In Early Trade
By VINCENT MAO
Stocks tumbled in early trade Thursday following weak retail sales and mixed economic news.
At 10:08 a.m. EDT, the Nasdaq slumped 0.8%, slicing its 50-day moving average though near Thu.'s best levels. The Dow lost 0.7%, while the S&P 500 gave up 0.6%.
Volume was tracking higher across the board.
Equities rallied modestly off their early lows following the ISM services index. The 10 a.m. report showed a rise to 50.6 in August from 49.5 in July. Economists expected no change.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) gapped down, tumbling 3.09, or 6%, to 51.62 in fast trade. The teen apparel retailer said Aug. same-store sales fell 11%. Analysts expected a much-smaller decline.
TJX (TJX) lost 2.03, or 6%, to 34.76 after it posted flat same-store sales. Analysts expected a modest gain. The discount clothing and home goods retailer also affirmed its Q3 earnings outlook of 59 cents to 62 cents a share vs. views of 62 cents.
On the upside, Buckle (BKE) rose 0.76 to 55.30 in fast trade. The clothing retailer delivered a 22.4% surge in its August same-store sales, easily beating views.
9:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Set For Early Stumble
By VINCENT MAO
Economic data and soft retail sales pressured stock futures Thursday, suggesting a lower open for equities.
Nasdaq futures fell 13 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures dropped 7 points and Dow futures lost 73 points.
In economic news, the ADP said that the economy lost 33,000 private sector jobs in August, slightly worse than expected.
Initial jobless claims rose by 15,000 to 440,000 last week. Economists expected 420,000. The 4-week average edged lower. But continuing claims climbed to 3.435 million, the highest since November 2003.
The Labor Department's jobs report will be out Friday.
Productivity in the second quarter was revised to a 4.3% annual rate, up from the initial reading of 2.2%. That reflects Q2 GDP's upward revision, but still beats expectations. Unit labor costs, an inflation gauge, fell 0.5%. That's down from a prior estimate of 1.3%.
Many of the nation's retailers reported weak August same-store sales. Against a backdrop of high fuel and food prices, consumers again focused on the necessities, which benefited discounters.
Excluding fuel, Wal-Mart (WMT) posted a 3% increase in August same-store sales. That was nearly double analysts' estimates. Shares rose about 1% in the pre-market.
Costco (COST), which reported sales on Wednesday, posted a 6% rise in its same-store sales, excluding fuel.
Fellow warehouse club operator BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) delivered a 15.4% sure in August same-store sales, topping views. But shares slipped 1% in the pre-market.
Department store operators struggled. Nordstrom's (JWN), Saks' (SKS) and J.C. Penney's (JCP) sales dropped 7.9%, 5.9% and 4.9% respectively.
Meanwhile, Boeing's (BA) largest labor union voted to strike, if the company can't bring an acceptable deal within 48 hours. Shares fell 2% in the pre-open and are likely to put pressure on the Dow.
Telecom gear maker Ciena (CIEN) dived 19% in the pre-market after it warned of weak orders from its customers. Key clients include AT&T (T) and Sprint Nextel (S). Ciena is the latest in a wave of techs and telecom gear makers warning of weak demand.
Crude oil was off earlier highs, but still gained 14 cents to $109.49 a barrel ahead of the weekly U.S. petroleum inventories report at 10:35 a.m. EDT.
Hey Farooq, will iHub accept Javascripts?
You could add a crude oil dashboard to your header.
Hey, I actually held SMH long enough to collect the dividend!
Cool.
Roy, I haven't seen the AMTD Streamer option refresh problem...
but that's because I don't have options on my lists.
Anyway, it sounds like more than a pain in the butt...this could cost you serious money. I'd advise calling AMTD and describing your problem.
I haven't read Mom's email yet, but I will, thanks.
+56%, take the "scalp", he says!
Roy, you're cleanin' up today! Great timing jumping on this follow-on high volume dive. The market sure feels like it's changed directions. The other shoe dropping?
DUG has blasted to new recent highs. It was screamin' at me to buy it as it tested its 50sma last week, but no-o-o-o. I was still smarting from having lost most of my gain to my loose stop...
Doesn't pay to be an "investor" in this market
Don't I know it, Bill. Lost all of my long term investments in my retirement acct to loose stops last week. I hate that. Usually shaves 4-5% off my balance. But I managed to hold onto +7.5% in the bank from the July 29 rally.
Oh, I still have one long term position: PIAGF (Piaggio), and though its ADR volume is very low, the Milan stock trades in the 1M's/day and is doing well. Closed at 2.45 yesterday vs my 2.00 basis.
SMH undercutting yesterday's low pre-open. Geez.
Ron, yes, WFR seems to be considered half chip, half solar nowadays. But in any case, it is fundamentally & technically depressed. A really good value for such a healthy company. But when will the market agree?
How much weight you will give for new low on SMH for bullish case? Can we still be in rally mode.
That's a good question, Farooq. It has happened before (market rallies without chips), but not for long. Chips are the basis for almost all technology and high tech products.
I really like WFR here (sorry, I know this is an index etf board).
Whacked 12% today for saying that results will be in the upper half of their guidance, but that chipmakers demand is softening.
That's really weird considering that chip says (sans-mems) were up >11% last month.
Hmmm...