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wbmw
Yes, I admit I jumped the gun. Sorry about that. I just finished another post responding to you on the subject and apologizing to you. Once again I apologize for jumping the gun. On another note. I would not be too quick to buy into any Semi stocks right now because I believe seasonal weakness will kick in taking these stocks lower. Even if Intel tops estimates, they move up for a few days, but eventually seasonality will take over.
Sorry about that wbmw
I thought I was responding to chipguy. I guess I jumped the gun going on the defensive. Again I apologize. Happy New Year and Happy trading.
Elmer
What everyone must realize is that neither AMD or Intel is a growth stock any more. Intel stock price is more stable while AMD's can fluctuate significantly. I at this point just view AMD as a short term play. That means buying in the late summer time and selling in early December. AMD's problem is they are too dependant on Flash which makes them much more vulnerable than Intel. To be honest I no longer believe in buy and hold with any stock. The reason for that is everything happens in an instant nowadays. It's hard to find the next Microsoft because stocks come public at much higher prices, and are often run up to exorbitant levels on the first day of trading. I know I felt good this morning knowing I was not in AMD when I heard the news. But if sentiment improves I will probably be back in the stock this fall to enjoy the Xmas run-up. I will also be interested to see the change in the short position, as well as insider trading in AMD the next time that information is released. I will bet that short interest will be at least 60 million up from under 40 million in Mid November. I also bet that more AMD insiders sold after 11/15/04. Have a happy New Year and happy trading.
wbmw: post detailing my AMD sale on 12/7
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4769210
Maybe next time you should check my previous posts before doubting. That's ok because I had a nice capital gain which made Christmas very merry.
AMD's bad news not Intel's good news
The reason AMD warned is because of teh Flash Side of the business, which makes up over 40% of AMD's revenue. Don't forget it's not just AMD and Intel in the Flash Business. Samsung is also a major player. Two many large players drives down price. Intel on the other hand does not rely so heavily on Flash. AMD is still gaining on the CPU side simply because they offer a better product with A64/Opteron. CPU is where Intel makes thir profits so AMD's bad news in Flash is not good news for Intel. I see AMD dropping to the low teens, maybe the $11-$12 range. Intel is likely to trade sideways to down for the next six months since we are now past the best part of the year for Semi's. I wouldn't be buying any semi stocks right now.
bobs10
I think the market is reacting the same way it always does when AMD warns. AMD stock gets punished. The only thing out of character is usually AMD would have passed this news on during the first week of the new quarter. I got out of the stock this past December 7. I got out because I had decided that if the stock got around $25 before Christmas, there would likely be little upside after Christmas because of seasonal trends. I also had heard like many others that things were not great on the Flash Side which is a huge part of AMD's business. I knew the only way AMD could go higher would be after earnings if there was a significant earnings upside, with a good outlook going forward. I have watched this stock cycle up and down over and over again and I wasn't going to get greedy. Even though AMD has some growth potential on the CPU side, they are still basically a cyclical and not a growth stock. My strategy goin forward is to stay on the sidelines on AMD until somewhere in the July - September timeframe, when the stock price will likely be lower than it is now. Then if things are still looking decent on the CPU side, and not that bad on the Flash Side. Then I will buy back in AMD for the typical Christmas run-up. I would not be a buyer of AMD now. This stock is likely to trade down into the low teens and maybe even down to the $11-$12 range.
HailMary Hold off till aftr Q4 Earnings
I say this because in 5 of the last 6 years the stock has gone down after Q4 earnings. This is typically due in part to seasonality. I also have to figure that most of the shorts who shorted below $15 have already closed their positions. Now you have new short sellers moving in on the stock. Plus we need to see how much costs are coming down in the Flash area where their seems to be too much competition. I have to believe their were several days where the volume was 20 million or more, especially that one day where something like 40 milion shares traded that a lot of that was short covering. The bottom line for AMD to move higher now is they need to increase EPS. I think AMD could be a $30 stock next year in early December, but over the summer I think the stock could bottom around $16. AMD needs to be making at least .25 share each quarter for the stock to get into the 30's. Good luck.
Sold AMD yesterday at 24.33
AMD had a great run but I don't see much chance of any news being able to push the stock higher in the short term, and their's no sense in getting greedy. When the stock pulled back before the open yesterday I figured I had better watch it closely and I'm glad I did. Plus knowing that only one year in the last 6 has seen AMD rally after Q4 earnings. The stock usually trades down after Q4 earnings come out because of seasonality. I also want to see what the prospects are for the Flash business next year since there are so many other large players in that business, and pricing pressure exists. I do expect AMD to keep gaining marketshare from Intel in microprocessors, but I think some of those gains might get eaten up by Flash Losses. I figure I will probably get back in during the July/August timeframe, assuming no big suprises.
Thank You Tenchu
I figured it would happen before year end as I said in some of my previous posts. My guess is that today's action is shorts getting scared out of their positions.
smoth20
It has everything to do with a prediction I made that AMD share price would pass Intel share price by year end. Cha-ching.
Hailmary, what's happening is in part a short covering rally. AMD would usually trade around 10-11 million shares, and although about 5 million additional shares traded could be due to the upgrades. I suspect the rest is shorts squaring their positions. There was something like 64 million shares short last month, and the shorts are having their feet put to the flames. The stock will likely stall out before it get's much higher. Look for the stock to trade in a range then unless news comes out about brisk or slow pc sales before Christmas. I think AMD will make at least .24 for Q4, and I think analyts are going tohave to raise estimates for Q1 from the current .12 . AMD is taking away market share in the high margin server business, as well as selling many more high end desktop cpu's. I look for Flash revenues to be flat to slightly up in in Q4. What will be interesting to see is when AMD will pass Intel's stock price.
Intel made to many red-hot underperforming Prescotts which they can't get rid of, cha-ching. What you folks don't realize is AMD is taking the top end of the X86 market from Intel. AMD is the clear performance leader, and continues to take the high end from Intel in desktops and servers. Funny how analysts only mention Intel with inventory issues, that's because AMD is not having any problem selling all their chips. With the crossover to 90nm, AMD is actually capacity constrained right now. So Intel can have the low end while AMD takes the high end, cha-ching. Look for AMD to make .18, double analyst estimates, cha-ching.
Intel stock tanks and I take my short profits, cha-ching
Intel blowing smoke about gains in Flash
Intel cant't deal with the reality that they are second to Spansion, the AMD joint venture in Flash. Get used to it because AMD/Spansion offers better price/performance than Intel, just like AMD64 kicks P4 Prescott's butt.
Intel stock down over 8 bucks on the year!!!!
I am changing my rating on Intel from Sell to neutral, seeing as Intel is roughly at fair value now. This does not mean you should go out and buy this lemon. AMD is kicking Intel's butt at the high end in microprocessors, and unlike Intel has no inventory issues(Intel made to many overheating, underperforming , low-binned Prescotts. Fools and their money are easily parted, cha-ching.
wbmw, are you talking about yourself again?
Because you just described your own behavior. Hey Intel's down $8 on the year, cha-ching. I am getting out of my short position as we speak. When AMD excedes expectations later today, Intel might just regain some of their lost equity riding AMD coat-tails. AMD is likely to earn .15 to .22, I will say .18 which is double expectations. Look for AMD to rebound in after hours unless it gains back equity lost during the day. Intel is a washed up has-been and the Intel faithful have gotten burned.
alan81 INTC YE03 32.05 Now: 25.83 do the math
wbmw I have posted my shorting strategy in the past or haven't you been paying attention. Hey Intel's down almost 6 bucks on the year. Cha-ching.
morrowwhinder nice try cherry picking reviews
Anyone can do that to make Intel appear better than they really are. the AMD review itself spells that out so next time think twice before giving a link to a review that shows there are better other AMD laptops available, such as alienware.
Intel shareholders fed up with falling stock price.
Intel shareholders are starting to get upset and have been contacting the company as to the poor performance of Intel shares which are down over $4 so far this year. It's because Intel has no specific strategy that is working. Intel wasn't able to take the performance crown back from AMD with it's paper launched Prescotts, of which the 3GHZ versions are only now becoming slightly available. News is not to expect the 3.6GHZ Prescotts till at least September. But that won't matter because the 3.6GHz parts have been tested against AMD's current best desktop offering the FX53, and the FX clearly holds the title. Now Intel realizes Prescott is too hot, and they start talking dual cores, but they can't do that with Prescott because it's too hot with single core. Looks like Centrino/Banias is going to have to be Intel's bread and butter, and while it's thermal characteristics are good, it is no match for AMD64 in terms of performance. It wasn't too long ago Intel was predicting 10GHZ chips by 2007. We know know there is 0% chance of that happening because Prescott's thermals are red hot. Intel has become a has-been that is forced into following AMD on technology and performance. And all the hype Intel can generate about future products wan't save the stock price. Smart money is shorting Intel.
chipguy you amuse me. There is little or no chance of that happening and I am sure others will laugh at the fact that you put any stock into what that writer said. His explanation was chock full of holes and a complete joke, with 0% chance of happening. Isn't it nice how AMD is up on the year while Intel is down over $4, cha-ching.
chipguy, your numbers just don't add up. WHen are you going to realize that Intel management lies to folks like you, that's why they used the term "Shipped" and not "sold". Just like Intel has an inventory buildup right now that is going to hurt Intel going forward, cha-ching. That inventory buildup is 79 days which is the second highest level in the last 10 years. So basically Intel has to much crap that people don't want to buy, while AMD has no problem selling all it's chips, cha-ching.
wbmw, Nokia is the exception, I have seen and heard that Intel is loosing elsewhere in terms of both new and existing business. I guess you missed those articles, or you don't yet understand the newswires.
chipguy you still don't understand what is included in the total, you were wrong saying storage devices are not included in the total. Call them up an ask them genius, YSFB.
chipguy wrong, the storage devices are included on the IPF side and I know this from having contacted a Vendor. Nice try trying to pull the rug over anyone's eyes. The only way to deal with a snake is to cut it's head off. chop!!!!!
chipguy wrong again
Your point about the top Opteron selling for more than $3000 is wrong which shows you don't know what your talking about. Heres a clue, look at the list prices at AMD and at Pricewatch before putting out false numbers. And if the average I@ server is going for over 45K which is over 10 times the amount of the most expensive I2, then your 500M in server revenue and 100M in processor revenue don't concur even assuming 2 processors per server. I love how you pull information from different places which just refutes one another. the fact is AMD is eating Intel's lunch and there is nothing you can do about it but cry crocodile tears.
chipguy I will help your math
You tried to claim Intel sold 100K Itanics in 2003, and your proof was an article saying they had 100M in revenue. But since Itanic sells for well over $1000, and $1000 goes into $100m, 100k times, then Intel couldn't have sold 100K itaniums in 2003. You should talk to nobody about math skills because you present arguments filled with holes. I suggest you cut your losses and sell your Intel shares, before you lose any more money. Hey, intel's only down over 11% this year while AMD is up over 3%. AND AMD outperformed intel last year as well. I guess you like losing money.
chipguy Dull Computers is losing business as we speak. Nobody wants Itanic and Dull won't be able to force it down anyones throats because it costs to much for most companies to use Itanic, and the price/performance on Itanic is a joke, let alone the cost of convereting to Itanic. It's going to be fun watching Dull suffer along with intel.
chipguy your data proves my point. example: "Semico Research Corporation reported that Intel sales of 64bit MPUs in 2003 was $100m." Now last I checked Itanium was going for well over $1,000. To sell 100,000 @ $1,000 would equal $100,000,000. But since Itanium goes for significantly more than that, it means Intel sold far fewer Itaniums than you or Barret claim. That's why he says "shipped". And as far as the $500M in servers total,, everyone knows Intel only gets the money for the CPU so nice try but try again. Next time do the math before you get too cocky. Oh yeah, Intel spent billions they will never recoup on the development of Itanium. And now that Opteron is gaining traction, and Intel is forced to follow on 64 bit, Itanic will either wither and die or be a tiny niche product at best. It's funny watching Intel fail.
chipguy no research firm has validated intels itanium claims.
It's heresay tht came from Inside Intel. With AMD there have been specific numbers thrown out there by research groups, but not with Intel. I know you like to believe everything Barret says, but I know better. Intel may have shipped/given away 100k itanics, but they have yet to sell that many and you can offer any proof or research numbers that prove your point. SO I think your fantasy has been put to rest.
chipguy "Gee, I wonder which world class whiner serial loser that was." Sounds like you are whining between this and posts you made on the AMD board. It's really a shame when people can't accept reality, and the reality is Intel has to cheat and spread FUD to keep up with AMD. The problem is Intel has nothing left up it's sleeve. I am really enjoying how Intel fans are unable to deal with AMD's technology and performance superiority.
AMD turning the screws on intel
It's great to see the news on how intel has been forced to start talking about dual cores because P4 has pretty much hit it's limits as shown by the overheating, underperfroming prescott. Too bad for intel they are on AMD's roadmaps as well. AMD holds the X86 performance crown over intel. And now there is news that AMD's Spansion is taking even more share from intel in the flash business. Opteron sales continue to grow as folks realize intel Xeons just don't measure up, and itanium has one foot in the grave. It's great to see intel getting what they deserve, and AMD showing who's boss. AMD is up on the year while AMD is down over 10% because people are realizing that intel is all talk, and AMD can deliver.
chipguy, Intel gave away most of those itanics for free
No independant research company has ever been able to verify that Intel sold 100K Itanics in 2003. Intel simply waited to hear how many chips AMD sold and claimed they sold more. Case in point I remember AMD already having sold more Opterons by the end of Q3 last year, than Intel had sold since Itanium was first offered. Intel simply gave them away so your argument is moot. Intel hasn't even sold 100K itaniums as of this date. Intel is just trying to make things look better than they are to try and save face. The reality is AMD is the performance king and Intel is the bumbling fool that can't seem to get anything straight. Intel screwed up big with Prescott as an underperfroming, overheated piece of silicon. And to top it off, AMD is taking more Flash business away from Intel. I can't wait to see what the Intel faithful say as AMD keeps gaining traction with Opteron/AMD64. Looks like AMD is taking Intel to the woodshed.
chipguy Margins are better on A64, contact AMD and find out for yourself, I did. Next time you should doublecheck before posting.
rupert, bottom line Opteron smokes Xeon and there is nothing anyone can say to refute that. The Intel Fans are not getting much sleep lately with all the Intel screw-ups. Now Intel has to try and get people to go with the multi-core idea. Bottom line AMD is going to keep kicking Intel around for some time, probably at least 18 months as Intel trys to catch up. I can't wait to see how Intel first 64bit server chips show no improvement against Opteron come August. Business is going to AMD and Intel has nothing.
Tecate YTD AMD -1.03 (-6.9%) INTC -5.01(-15.6%)
Tiger64
This is normally a week time of the year for AMD and semis in terms of stock price. Thinkgs are likely to really start trending up till at least late June or early July. AMD has had support at $14. The stock has bounced off $14 3 times starting in December. I expect $14 to hold as it did the previous 3 times.
Chipguy, Server chips have better margins. And AMD is going to keep growing it's marketshare in this arena, while exerting pricing pressure on those underperforming Xeon chips. Don't forget AMD is up 2% YTD while Intel is down 14% YTD. Let's not also forget how Intel has completely dropped the ball on the desktop which will likely rebound very strong in the second half of the year, as laptop sales cool off. Looks like your alter-reality all comes crashing down.