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YES ChiChi.!!! ''BIG'' waves 1 AND 2 are now finished. We have begun BIG wave-3 already. (small 1 of 'BIG'-3.),,,,Sometime in mid (??)--2012 we will have a short-violent BIG wave-4 (straight down, lol,) followed by an equally short-violent BIG upwave-5 to finish the bull. I'm still using 2001-2003 as an example of bull followed by bear. MUCH THANKS.!!!!!!!
WAY too much thinking; NOT wave-4 at all.!!,,,..We just completed a textbook major ABC correction from your ''5.'' ...Perfect bottom even look at that huge capitulation volume spikes on the first bottom. My call is; ....''Correction Complete; NEW WAVE-ONE BEGINS and 2-3-4-5 right through summer-2012 then OMG!!!. I am long Jan 'at-the-money' calls from the almost bottom on ACI-WLT-TCK-POT.
Long a ton of in-the-money August calls on long dated copper//met coal stocks such as TCK which looks like it's about to break out from a very textbook ''inverse head-n-shoulders.''
CNQ possible IMMINANT Cup-n-Handle upside breakout upon us. IMVHO.!!! The whole thing is captured on a 2-month daily chart.
Bot TCK in TORONTO @ $58-C$. and sold (wrote) Montreal May $59 calls for $5.00-C$. $5,000 for 100-days. OK by me.!!! If 'they' take me out at $59== great; if not, i resell more calls, etc etc. Doing the same with SU and CNQ. Follow me; have fun. !!!
''CHI2;''You've GOT to know that you're not alone with ME here. I sold my in-the-money TCK calls on FRI $63.50. I REFUSE to ever hold thru earnings no matter 'what.' Now bidding longer-term calls cheaper AS THE COMPANY IS WORTH IT, Mine strike will be over; Austrailian Floods will end; now= NO #2 in world in met coal; 50-OR MORE years worth; Copper; Zinc; Etc etc. The strikes; snowed- in rail shipments; etc, etc soon be fixed; Already happening. Also long CNQ 42 CALLS; And SU calls; Neither of which need drilling success as they've both proved up about 100-200 bbls inplace for the next
50-100 Years..!!!!! Good Luck ???? HELL JUST BUY-AND -HOLD. BOB B-1942.
WOW CHI2 !!!! TY from everyone here i'm sure for enduring our (my) questions and putting SO MUCH EFFORT, SACRIFICE OF PERSONAL TIME ETC; into all of what you do ESPECIALLY on those last 2 posts. Bob.
Hmm. Now what?? Good case for ignoring my previous post and forgetting about metals ????
TY both George and Chichi. The Ord Oracle seems to make the best case for being bullish on both GDX and GLD. (Although my preference would be GDXJ.) And the other post ''gold etf assets'' by Tom McClellan. Thank you both for the input.
Yes; GDX, GDXJ, and GLD have already turned up for about a week and a half now in anticipation of an $SPX top/ correction soon. IMHO. I think.
'Chi2'Much Thanks!!!. Will wait; no problem/ eom
***'CHI2;' Maybe it's time for a refresh on your charts on this page that i'm answering you on.??? Have they bottomed and turned ??? Sure starting to look that way to me but you're the expert on these ones.!!!
Yes 'Chi2;' I see your nervousness now. This post of yours from May 2009 shows the monthlies now above the i-clouds. As bullish that i guess that is, one look at the monthlies makes me just want to get out and give it a rest for a while. I already killed off margin a month ago and am already half cash with the rest in a variety of long-dated calls. Thinking of going 100% cash (or GDXJ ????)
LOL Chi2; Copper and oil are fine by me.!!! (See return post.)EOM.
Long CPG(Toronto;) CNQ; SU; TCK; Oil and met-coal;-copper EOM.
HMMMMMM; Correction over ?? THIRD year of prez cycle; my vote iS EMPHATICALLY YES. block out ALL ''noise'' and go with almost infalable history.!!!!!! BUY-BUY-BUY.!!!!! I'LL be back into both CNQ and TCK BIGTIME with ''at-money'' call options only. August should be more than long enough.
Now out of everything and FURIOUSLY chewing my nails,/EOM
Out of half of both CNQ and TCK.(for now,) BUT still keeping 'Full-Load' with GTE-amex, and CPG Toronto.
CNQ riding the 50-day; TCK just beginning to./ EOM.
**$SPX OBV (On Balance Volume)== 3-year high?? EOM.
Yes and TCK and CNQ too. TCK is mainly copper and met-coal and is now Canada's biggest mining company; and CNQ is number 3 big Canada oil.
MUCH THANKS Chi2; SPX charts and most importantly your interpretation. Looks like i'm stuck for a while as i never even lightened up yet. CNQ; TCK; hurting me the most. Bah, Humbug.
Maybe no more China inflation worries. (thus no more China rate hikes ??) "Chinese manufacturing slows; may tame inflation." says a bigcharts/marketwatch headline.
!! T/Y Chi2 for including TCK !!!...EOM.
$$$==HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL !!!!!..EOM.
T/Y Chi2 !!! *** TCK is met coal; copper; moly; base mets as well as prec mets and oil sands. It's now Canada's biggest mining co. Long and selling calls against. (gulp.) The chart breakout is a work of art; lol.
MUCH T/Y Chi2.!!! What about copper which is setting all-time new highs every day now and making stocks like TCK break out ???
T/Y GEORGE. Yet another 5-wave that looks topped out. Like the post that i just asked Chi2 about. NOW i'm a very nervous long. Happy New Year to you too.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chi2; (Re the bottom link not the video.) His very last (in a box) comment on the 10-year treasury (right at the bottom of page-1) said ''an 8-month 'decay' in the dollar.'' On stocks he's pretty bearish right now and his 5-wave upcount looks like we've topped out. Your concern about s/p 1257 fits right in there too. Should we be out altogether ??? or just switch to GDX/ GDXJ ??????... T.I.A. !!! (i'm too chicken and too old to be a short.)
Not so wild. If 'retail' is only playing the small-cap & naz games, then the 'big-money' (mutuals and pensions,) goes to the stuff that makes up the s/p 500 IMO; and 'they' have control (by default) to make themselves look good, so as to sell their products (and get big bonuses by doing so.)
(Off Topic) Youtube: = ''Akiko Tsuruga-Funky Mama''... WOW !!! What a talent for a 30-ish Japanese girl playing a Hammond B3 in her own jazz quartet. LIFT YOUR SPIRITS !!!!!!!!!!!
George; A BIG T/Y for those weekly technical oil reports. I hope (pray ?? lol,) that the latest one plays out.
Chi2; Looks like i was too nervous. These markets (overnights) are just shrugging off the China rate increase like it's nothing. I now must agree with you on ''buy-the-dips.'' This is a very impressive comeback after a lousy start.
China UNEXPECTEDLY raised interest rates for the second time in 5-months. This (IMHO,) is what's driving the futures/commods/currencies etc etc right NOW. China was NOT expected to do this until sometime in the first Q of 2011. I had a buy order in on SWIR but chickened out and just cancelled it. I'll probably regret that. But for right now == ?????
Chi2; THAT one's my 'money-post' ==Thank You GREATLY for posting it.!!!
Chichi2; MUCH THANKS; i'm greatly humbled by that quick response that i missed while in hospital drinking (GASP) radioactive iodine. (ack-ack-ack.) I've been in the markets since '69; that's A LOT of bull/bear cycles. It's second nature to me now. I've been an R/R; private-partner with former co-workers; and then in the mid-90's 100% nasdaq daytrading on my own, a little past (SHUDDER) the end of that party; (gulp.) When i felt convinced of my latest call and wrote that post; within days after; i sold all of our stocks and bought tons of 'in-the-money' long-dated calls (but not LEAPS,) on 10-majors mostly energy and mining stocks.== (TSX; Canada eh ?? Merry Christmas to me; LOL.) That's what i'm doing for the next 2-years, but always with my finger on the trigger. HAPPY HOLIDAYS to you & yours and by giving me that recognition was the best Christmas present so far. Bob-1942;,,,,,,,,,,XOXOXOXOXOXO.......
OY; thanks !!....music to mine ears !!!,,,EOM.
Yes Chi2. Look at the very bottom chart; the 10-year monthly. Compare from the low in 2003 to the end of 2004; with the 2009 low to the end of 2010. They are the same except the latest is more exagerated (the upside down V,) because we've had such a volotile bear followed be an equally volotile recovery. I then look at your 2004-2007 trin/sp and, (like a broken record, sorry,lol,) i STILL see the bull continuing from now to 2012.
YES 'Chi2;'!!! MAJOR cup-and-handle breakout on XLE.!!! Me being in Canada and trading puts-and-calls continuously on TMX oils on every zig-and-zag, (Toronto-Montreal-Xchange, thus TMX,) TXE at 13,163 is less than 2000 points away from an all-time high of 15,000 because of major oil/gold/copper/ag, stocks (CNQ-CPG-PBG POT etc,etc,) (Pbg was just in Barrons a few weeks ago,) has been and continues to be a goldmine for me. GO U.S.!!!!! == HAL has moved into North Dakota in a big way. My Canadian oils are all into the N.D./' Saskatchewan/ Alberta ''Bakken field. That's why Hal just popped (thanks to CNN coverage of the hottest area for land-based light-sweet-crude.) BUY 6-MONTH CALLS ON HAL !!!
LARGE 2-YEAR WAVE-3 Now underway in earnest. Look at 2005 and 2006 for the example. This is ''the second leg up'' out of 3 total uplegs in a bull mkt. Zigs and zags yes; but nevertheless the longest and stongest uptrend of the 3 bull uplegs noted as Large waves 1, 3, and 5. The large wave 2 corrective is now behind us and the wave-4 corrective won't be probably for 2 years from now. Again i urge you all to study the 2003-2007 bull mkt for both example and inspiration. That's been MY guide all along and so far perfect, Just click on the message up above that i'm answering to; (one of chichi's VERY BEST,) and scroll down to the first chart (10-year S/P monthly) and it will all be laid out in front of you for comparison. b42 (bob 1942.)