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At least you recognize the true value of the project. What surprises me is that you seem to think Altus is the only smart money paying attention. Don't forget that the secured creditors own a huge number of shares. It seems they would prefer to do business with someone who would make those shares worth something going forward.
Let the bidding war begin.
F18
Here is my pearl before the swine....With a ceiling on the secured creditors now in place for about 1/5 of what they are owed, finding the money to pay them off won't be very hard given the proven reserves and the current value of the metals. The bigger issues are PN, the IRS and any other skeletons in the closet which I expect to be cleaned up via BK.
I've been saying for a long time this project is worth at a min $100 -$200 mil.
"Yes Ray...they will come."
F18
I remember a post of yours a few weeks before the BK announcement that was extremely positive. Perhaps all that insider info you get fed led you to try a pump and dump right before BK.
F18
One downside to copper ETFs are the costs to hold the metal. They mentioned a 2% management fee which they thought was pretty steep.
Anyway, at $4 per pound it takes a much bigger vault than say Silver $30 oz or gold $1400 oz.
F18
I saw a piece on CNBC a week or two ago on that very topic.....Glad I purchased COPX in November. Up 6% so far.
F18
I agree that this is most likely a non-story but people also need to realize that CPRK has insurance coverage.
Just kidding here but maybe we should all hope for a big quake to mess up the mill a bit so the insurance proceeds could be used to make the necessary adjustments.
F18
So if you believe they will go away at some point, when will that be?
F18
PN will go away when A) they get enough cash in a refinancing of the company or b) the BK judge says so. To say they will never go away is foolish.
There should be plenty of value in this project (especially with today's gold, silver and copper prices) to pay off PN, the secured creditors, the unsecured creditors and leave current shares in tact (albeit wounded). The FACT that all sides are negotiating outside the court speaks loudly.
F18
I think we'll stay in the trading range of .0015 to .003 until we get a final determination regarding whether the shares will be canceled.
F18
I just hoped that you would be filled with Christmas spirit and take a break for a few days.
F18
How much did you contribute?
F18
Excellent update Chuck.....sounds like you fellas are working OT for all shareholders. Please relay my thanks to everyone on the ESC.
F18
In your analysis, doubling the profit would indeed be very conservative because the cost to produce the copper isn't much different when copper is $1.60 vs. $3.60. Most if not all of that $1.60 goes towards production costs. Most of the $2 difference would go directly to the bottom line.
F18
And silver at 30 year high and copper pushing $4. Someone is going to make a ton of money on this project someday.
F18
Just can't help myself. Of course in the general usage of the word, creditors and shareholders are different. In BK, there are various classes of creditors and I believe John Bryan said in his conference call a few months ago that shareholders are a class of creditors. I leave open the possibility that I'm wrong. Do you?
F18
No argument there. It might just be that they used the term to include all creditor classes so they wouldn't have to spell them out separately. I do believe the agreement leaves open the possibility that all the debt might not be retired by the initial investment and that some may need to be converted to equity per the MOU. I don't think anyone can predict the final distribution because it involves creditors having to go along.
Anyway, I think I'll go back to lurking...posting is just not worth the aggravation.
F18
That isn't what the guy who negotiated the agreement told me.
F18
Is is my understanding that "creditors" include all classes of creditors which includes shareholders. It is also my understanding that the intent of the offer is to pay off all the debt. If so, then the investor gets 70%, Watley gets 1.5% and the shareholders would get 28.5%.
This may be hard to understand for some but under the terms of the MOU, today's pps is factoring in a total valuation of the company of about $46 million (assuming current shares account for 28.5% of the total).
Everyone can make up their own mind on what the real value of the company is but I have always used a minimum of $100 mil in my analysis.
I hope and expect the terms to get better as new deals come forward. One thing we need to understand is that any new investor will likely be very motivated to increase the total value of the company. They will likely bring in competent management and more funding to invest in drilling, SX/EW, moving to a better exchange, etc. Even though we may have a smaller piece of the company going forward, I will be happy to ride the coattails of someone motivated to make this project everything we all believed it could be.
F18
I suspect there are better deals out there. I accept your point that anyone who gives them a loan of significant size will also want a few shares.
F18
FFF,
I would be generally pleased if someone bought a 75% stake in the company for $80+ million as long as all the debt could be retired and they would have say $20 million left over for working capital to get things going. The simple math would suggest that our 6 bil shares would be worth about $.005 or more which is okay by me considering we're now at .0007.
As I've already said on this board, this would fit with my analysis of what could happen and is why I have tripled my holdings at sub .001 prices.
Of course is someone does get a 75% stake for $80 mil, they would only do it believing they were getting a bargain which would logically make the upside to our 6 bil shares much higher than .005.
F18
You really think 6 billion shares transferred from big money pockets to someone else in the few days before and after BK? I don't think so. I doubt MS and EB sold any of their 600 mil shares. I suspect that a very small percentage of the 6 billion shares o/s have traded hands over the past 6 months. I know of about 200 mil shares in my circle of family and friends that have not been sold.
F18
The key question is to ask why did the 25% not get cancelled and does our situation fit more closely with the 25% or the 75%?
I suspect a thorough study of previous BKs would indicate that shareholders most often survive only when there are undervalued assets AND a willingness on the part of the creditors to take less than a full loaf. I believe both to be the case with cprkq.
F18
If I had a dollar for every time MD promised financing by "next week" I could fund the LTF. MD wrote the book on over promising and under delivering.
F18
CK,
I think you will need to add a zero to the 5. I would be pleased to get out of this with 50% dilution. Of course, 50% of a tasty pie is better than 100% of a toxic one.
I have factored in a 50% dilution to my model, which is why I doubled down after the BK news. The long and short of it is, I have double the shares I did before for about 1/2 the avg cost. If we need to issue 6 billion new shares, I will own the same % of the new company as I did the old one.
Of course, this only works if the common shares are not canceled.
F18
Good advice.
If I understand it, NS was set to make a maximum of $10 million from their original deal. In my valuation estimates, I have allowed settlement payments of $15 mil for all lawsuits. Could they settle for less? Likely. But I prefer to be conservative.
F18
DIP financing = 2nd chance.
F18
Can you see a better position to evaluate the potential of a company than the CEO chair?
F18
We just got news.....lender secured and will be detailed in filing today.
F18
Fee now....huge windfall from potential investment later. Also, I don't suspect any turnaround firm would take on a client that they felt would tarnish the resume.
F18
I would be very worried if we received any promises from these guys because they are in no position to make them. The courts will determine the winners and losers....not these guys. The promise we got is that they will do all they can to protect us.
F18
Written down from what? So what if we don't get multi billion valuations on the ore as long as we get $75 mil of value for the whole pie, my investment will payoff handsomely.
F18
Nobody has said the ore is not worth what MD said. It has only been said the the drill results have not conformed to international mining standards which lessens the reliability of what MD says. It is very different to say the ore isn't worth as much vs. the financing would be easier to obtain with more confirmation via drilling to international standards.
F18
Not that it matters much, but I don't expect any news todays. I'm not even sure we will be allowed to ask any questions. I'm expecting it to clarify what will happen next and to confirm that they are talking to a number of different groups (including the Chinese).
F18
I'm 99% certain it is not toll free.
F18
I don't know if he is the same man today as he was back then. I know I sure am different than I was 10-15 years ago. Regardless, his firm seems to be well connected and I don't think he will be involved with this project much longer.
If we get enough people looking at the potential of this project, I'm confident there will be enough money to pay off the debt and keep our shares alive.
F18
One would hope that nobody would risk their home and all their money on a single investment. It doesn't take a genius to know not to do that even if someone were telling them it is a sure thing. I guess there are some born every minute however.
I have lost a lot of money on this but none of it will cause me to lose my existing lifestyle. I am frustrated with the poor management of the company but I knew who MD was within 5 minutes of talking to him. I understood his strengths and weakness but I chose to put more faith in his strengths. I don't blame him for my decision. I do blame him for some for what I perceive to be gross misstatements after I had made my decision.
If this goes to zero, I will just retire a year or two later instead of able to retire many years sooner. A risk I understood going in. Of course I don't think the final chapter is written and hold out some hope for a deal to be cut that will keep our shares alive. I still believe firmly that CPRKs assets are what I invested in and that those assets are worth much more then their reasonable debt payoffs. This is why I believe it a reasonable gamble that our shares will not canceled.
Good luck to all longs.
F18
I don't think so. CPRK's power poles and power lines are worth 10x that number.
F18
Not always true.....I got most of my stuff yesterday at the bid. I have also sold at the ask. All depends on demand.
F18
20% on this stock is one tick.
F18
Good luck to you also Aly! Reward is usually commensurate with Risk. I agree it could go to zero but it could also go to a penny. I'll take that wager when I know the infrastructure of the mill is worth something, the drill results are worth something and the ore in the ground could be worth a whole lot. I don't think MS would sell out the shareholders. This will finally force the creditors to the terms we need to move forward.
F18