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Our patience will pay off... eom
Long TVIX and doubled-down in the high 5's.
I'm thinking we'll see a good dead cat bounce somewhere
around last October's precipitous drop; may take some profits then
and wait to re-load. Been waiting a long time for this opportunity
and my thanks for your daily insight.
Have been reading your posts gldtimer since July, when you began posting on the TVIX board. I started building my position on 7/18 and am content to hold while we all watch the dominoes fall...been lurking but am now follower #18. Thanks for sharing your expertise which I enjoy soaking up on a daily basis...best to you going forward!
Not so sure I have a great handle on this one or I'd be a rich man by now; although this is a long-term play for me. I think of LODE as a Barrick or Newmont when they were just starting out.
Currently I believe the key lies in the daily volume; which is paltry compared to McEwen.
Also, McEwen has a much greater short interest than LODE, so some of their
rise may have been short covering. Rob McEwen has also been in the gold community for a much longer time and has had many proven successes.
It wouldn't be too difficult for any one of our institutional investors, to keep
LODE in this tight and depressed trading range given our recent volume numbers. Why would they want to do that?
To get a larger piece of the pie at the lowest possible price. LODE never seems to have trouble
with their public offerings, closing quickly and using the over-allotment each and every time.
Is there manipulation to get the big guys in at a lower and lower price? You decide.
Winfield's ongoing conversion may also have something to do with price, but I quit trying to follow that.
Comstock really isn't helping with any of their PR's, you don't going buying a stock based on safety awards or reclamation goals. You buy on drilling milestones, added reserves and positive increasing cash flow. We haven't had any meaty press releases in a very long time. The POG hasn't helped at all to create any interest until recently.
I'd venture to say that this is a strong bottom we're bouncing along and when our drill program results start coming in, that should be a catalyst for a rise in price. I'm sure there will be some sort of bounce and sell event on the horizon with the upcoming 2nd quarter numbers, if you're playing the short term.
I think the junior miners will be coming back into favor with the investment community over the next few months. Comstock has a strong narrative and really a huge project which will serve this company well into the future.
Puts us in good company with Barrick/Newmont...
This award will help to negate future banter from the CRA or NIMBY crowd.
Kudos to the Comstock team!
Got it...they'll frustrate you out of your shares.
I agree, that is a great sign!
Big money funds as well as big money individuals don't appear to have an issue
with LODE's common stock.
Bottom line: LODE never seems to have a problem attracting big money...
I guess I really misjudged their willingness to throw the
common shareholder under the bus.
Seems as if they're going to ramp-up full tilt, full steam ahead;
cost and shareholder be damned!
Good call!
All miners took a drubbing yesterday along with the POG.
I wouldn't conclude that there's a pending offering just based on yesterday's waning down volume.
If we get more follow-thru in larger volume to the down, then maybe something's up.
There's a gap that needs filling back from 4/14, down to 1.56.
If I were a betting man, I'd place my buys right above that gap.
20K ounces is merely the beginning my friend...
Let's look at the POG and silver 18 months ago...
Gold was trading well above the $1700 range and silver was over $32. That may have given them a fundamental confidence (it did me) that Comstock would be profitable at the 20k ounces per annum run rate. Had metal prices stayed at those levels, their bottom line would have increased by another third or more. Unfortunately, metal prices spiked down and have stayed in the lower range, thus hurting profitability at the 20k run rate.
We now find ourselves building up to the 40k annual run rate by the end of this year. What was stopping them from producing the 40k ounces from day one? It's called a permit with very specific limitations on what their circuit could produce.
As you may remember, a major modification to the company’s Water Pollution Control Permit was approved at the end of October; this allowed them to increase the amount of processed mineralized material by FOUR TIMES. This was then achieved in part, by building additional heap leach pads and loading them with higher-grade ore, which has been their stated goal for quite some time.
From a planning perspective, this all seems quite logical and realistic to me.
The signs I'm seeing today all point to great success...
I guess time will tell the tale on this one.
I don't share your belief that cash flow will be so anemic, it will cause an eventual capital raise in the coming quarter(s). This outfit does a great deal of planning and has delivered thus far in a
very difficult precious metals climate; not to mention their NIMBY issues.
I think that they're well aware of cash flow and have aligned their commitments with the ramp-up in production. The latest credit facility's repayments don't begin until third quarter, which is when I believe Corrado implied in the Call today, production rates would increase significantly.
If the POG drops much further though, all bets are off...
They DON'T clearly need to raise cash or to do an equity sale.
Did you read today's press release? Did you read that they are ramping up to 40k ounce run rate this year? Once at this rate, the estimated cost per ounce is $750; not too shabby! That is where their cash is coming from. Higher grades and lower strip ratios are currently on the leach pads. Lack of transparency? Really? Not from what I see or hear when speaking with Comstock. Looking forward to hearing the progress on today's conference call...
I wouldn't fret too much.
They went thru a section of lower-grade ore and production was down a small amount from previous quarters.
It's my understanding that we are still ramping up production with higher grade ore being loaded on the pads as well as additional pads coming on line (last fall/winter's expansion). They have till the end of the year to fully ramp to the 40K; it's not as simple as dividing it into four equal quarters (maybe that might apply to 2015 once they're at their full run-rate). If similar lower production numbers come in for Q2, could then be cause for concern. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised...
You're not alone...
Bought more the other day and have another
good size order placed if they take it down much further.
This worked really well the last time we were at these levels...
I did see that all the expenses associated with the loan were paid by shares.
It seems a little honkey-tonk to do it that way but I'm sure there will be a "reason" why this
was advantageous; just not advantageous to us shareholders.
Seems expenses are tight as they prepare to yet again, ramp up.
Payments don't start until early August of 2014 so it looks like all income
will be devoted to operations until they achieve doubling of production by this summer.
Lot of churn in the last few days but not a huge price swing...yet.
Last time I checked, the county commissioners vote trumps a planning board.
As always, the CRA makes these huge claims against LODE which they can't back up.
I think it's time the CRA is sued for libel and/or slander.
What a bunch of nuts!
The important takeaway: they DIDN'T issue shares
When looking at all LODE has planned in the coming quarter(s) along
with the fact that they are probably still in ramp-up mode, I think it
was prudent to use the facility.
It's immediate ramp-up money which can be written off against
profits.
We'll all be very happy as the new drilling results start to come in
given their previous track record and then of course, there is the
doubling of production...
I think that LODE just started earlier than the others. We're up over 15% from the lows.
Making a nice base here and when the 50 day crosses the 200, we just might see the 2.20 range
again.
The fat short cows will cover. Just look at the other day, something spooked them...
Now it seems they gradually shorted it back to this level on much lighter volume.
When you look at all the institutional names involved, that should give you some security.
They didn't park their money here on a whim and have stayed the course.
I'm still invested here and glad I was able to add more at these bargain prices.
I find it odd that we still get people posting here who sold at the highs or don't own the stock,
yet are the first to post press releases...or to tell the board what a crummy investment this is...
Somewhat suspect me thinks.
Really? This is all very old news...
Comstock Mining is working closely with the state to resolve the issue.
Are you a member of the CRA?
I agree with you about the low price...
Many of the funds which own LODE bought in at a much higher price
and they seem to holding tough. If you look at the chart, this level
is toward the low end of the range.
I don't believe there are many shares available at these levels but the average
retail investor isn't thinking about junior, soon to be major gold producer stocks
right now.
So I think the day to day activity on LODE is churn, mm's selling back/forth to
one another to create interest, an algo perhaps, especially when we have a day of
trades that go into decimal points.
When this gold thing turns, it will be quickly and you'll be glad you added at these prices.
LOL-- A whopping 400 share trade dropped it!
Was set to close at 1.87 before that trade. Couldn't have LODE close up so
they painted the tape. I still say it's a good buy at these levels...
This will be a non-event just like last time.
Share price will rise accordingly post meeting and really, this is a great
buy-in point for those looking to take a position. IMHO
I think we'll be in a trading range here until NDEP's NIMBY meeting, comments closing on 10/17.
As before, the administrator has given a tentative approval of the permit modification but must
sit and listen to all those CRA nuts for two hours before giving the final approval. I'm sure too that
the positive comments will far outweigh the negative again.
What a waste...seems these misguided people have all the time in the world
and yet cannot stop to comprehend just how much a responsible mining company could better the surrounding communities.
I heartily agree. We've all come a long way over quite a few years.
I was very proud of the entire group. Who are the guys in the black hats?
In it to win it!
Do you have any other conjecture than to vilify John Winfield?
I can get that from the junky board over at Yahoo.
If it weren't for him, there would be no Comstock Mining.
As for the same ole story, really it's not the same at all. They now have a profitable, producing mine
which is scheduled to ramp up production rates in the near term along with adding a second mine.
This is a long term investment which requires patience.
Regarding the B word, it's only a matter of time.
If you look at the indices, LODE started earlier and ended up beating the GDXJ (and the HUI) for the week:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1367098050227&chddm=1955&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEAMEX:LODE;INDEXNYSEGIS:HUI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSEARCA:GDXJ&ntsp=0&ei=nkJ8UcCiM-Gy0QGVJQE
LODE, although down, has been beating both indices this year by over 20%:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1367097848986&chddm=31280&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEAMEX:LODE;INDEXNYSEGIS:HUI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSEARCA:GDXJ&ntsp=0&ei=D0F8UbiWKpjSlgP51AE
It most closely follows GLD:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1367100006947&chddm=31280&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEAMEX:LODE;INDEXNYSEGIS:HUI;NYSEARCA:GLD&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:GDXJ&ntsp=0&ei=YUp8UaDjE5Tq0QHy7gE
If there wasn't such an aggressive short position, we might be positive on the year...
Seems like the hedge fund short sellers have demoralized many of the long time holders.
That's their intention...
You can try and blame the company or its greatest benefactor but the truth of the matter
is that LODE's share price is no different than many of the other juniors out there; beaten down
and held there as if by a glass ceiling.
Look at what they've done with the Comex. It's a total joke.
The time will come, in the not too distant future, when these funds will be on the other side of the
trade. Hang in there if you can...
The value is here in spades.
I couldn't be more thrilled with the progress after listening to the conference call and after hearing the Roth presentation; it's clear to me that this is the time to get the ball rolling on the second mine. It's capital intensive to start the process and will take well over eighteen months to get everything in place. In one simple, small offering they have the capital to get the second mine underway. Then all we have to do is to watch the production rate double again.
I can see if you bought the stock at $3.50, you might be a bit miffed at this point in time. Sorry if this happened to you. I'm afraid you may be victim to the short-sellers here. I wouldn't worry about them though, they're fighting a losing battle against some very strong hands.
You seem to have the impression that the company is losing money, which it's not. They are producing gold and silver daily at a rate of nearly 400 ounces per week. You also make it sound like they are in an endless cycle of loss which couldn't be further from the truth:
they are ramping up production and their bottom line in the process.
Regarding compensation, this was the scheduled stock award for Mr. DeGasperis upon hitting certain production and drilling goals. You make it sound like the CEO gets extravagant, unlimited bonuses. That's just not the case. This "bonus" is nothing new and was part of his compensation package when hired. It's vested in fifths with 3/5's still remaining to vest according to where we're at with yearly production goals.
You can split hairs and try and paint a terrible picture but the fact of the matter is that
there are billions of $$ in metals in the ground (here in the US), much of it near surface. They
have only explored about 10% of their land holdings and have already identified a bonanza grade
structure; the potential here is just enormous.
This company will make buckets of money for patient shareholders and I intend to be one of them.
GLTY
Step back and look at the bigger picture...
I'll take two mines and increased production any day over meager yearly returns.
Also, you might educate yourself about the reclamation bonds that Comstock has posted.
Whatever "gutting" takes place will be rectified with the bond.
Gold Hill/Virginia City residents should consider themselves lucky that such a responsible
corporate citizen is operating and creating good jobs in their area, thus bringing up the quality of life
for everyone.
(Except of course for the nimby's, nothing will make them happy.)
Also, where are you getting the 5 mil annual bonus figure? I don't believe that's correct.
Meant to say run-up on light volume...
I'm taking my profits before this falls again
Looks to be overbought as it is. RSI approaching 80...
good run while it lasted!
What a sad, poor, misguided soul. She has nothing better to do than
to waste people's time and money.
Her reactionary, ill-informed actions are doing nothing but hurting her
community. People are losing patience with her and the CRA.
When she's had her day in court, I hope someone drags her back in with a nuisance lawsuit!
LOL-- Thanks for the "warning" eom
Appreciate your report...
Did you happen to ask about the timing of the capital raise?
i.e. raising $$ when the stock was at its recent lows as opposed to when
it was over three bucks?
If you look at the last time (Feb 2012),
they did it for a cool 15mil at a price quite near the 50 day moving average ($1.90). Share price was $1.84 back then. We got a similar red candle a few days before, then a slight drop & then it looks as if the shorts covered with a big white candle, taking us back up over the 50 day.
If they base it on the current 50 day, we're in good shape and indeed, you & I got some cheap shares!
Question remains, what kind of bankroll do they need? Looks like they really want to ramp this thing up quickly. Those last set of drill results were no less than outstanding.
Remember when Knight's algo's went crazy and LODE went up?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/what-happens-when-hft-algo-goes-totally-berserk-and-serves-knight-capital-bill
LODE was one of the 134 stocks that went crazy that morning (8/1/12).
Knight appears to be offline this morning:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/dark-knight-capital-again
LODE trends up again...
Never said anything about shorting,
funny you should mention that.
Look, Winfield owns the company. We're along for the multi-billion dollar ride.
Scared money never wins.
Unlikely this stock will sit at three bucks or even four-fifty once they've doubled their
resources (new 43-101 due out in Dec) and banked some production profits.
According to the slide presentation in Boston, they're planning to ramp up to 200,000 oz. per annum
in a couple of years.
You can't cap the price with those kind of numbers. Everybody knows what's coming...
Good thing you never shorted a single share.
GLTY