>>>I am shocked, SHOCKED, that the BtB number was down again and equipment orders are still falling>>>

MLsoft you of all people shouldn't be shocked at all you've been the MOST ardent bear ive seen on this thread. Perhaps a bit of posturing here? I continue to say the news doesnt matter near term during this short covering ramp up. Given the extreme volume and wide range of support I think the 1425 will serve as a strong level on any retest back. I just hope you are navigating with a working compass here <g>

>should we get to 1525 next week will you take some or all chips off the table.
guestion from a curious bear>>>


Steve...yes actually ill take off at least half at that level and reassess. The 960/70 level on the SP 500 is going to be a tough area in terms of resistance and I will probably exit all there and wait to see what sets up. Trust me if we get some type of double top/rolling top i'd get short at those resistance levels quick but I have to see it first. So basically at that level ill give the market some time to see what it wants to do.

Zhina the charts dont say so here. In fact that potent triangle i mentioned last night measures to the 1525 level. I just hope you aren't caught in a bear snare.

>>>A possible ugly Friday followed by a bad Monday???>>>

Really? Based on a $6 BRCD and a $3 NOVL warning? The futures dont indicate such...in fact the SP 500 is above the close here. I say we get a bit of down open which ill be looking to buy into long. This b2b will be forgotten by the afternoon like last month when it came in below expectations. Focusing on the fundamentals here hasn't done any good. This is a Nikkei like short compression move imo...and in time it WILL rollover. Volume was huge to the upside today confirming the breakout...i think we are a magnet here to the 200 days and 960/70 SP 500 the old neckline.

Long OCA...someone mentioned it here a few days ago...getting hit a bit on the PDCO news but a compelling valuation here...and the insiders have been buying HUGE the past 6-8 weeks...

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/o/oca.html

QLGC broke out of a potent looking pennant that measures up to the 50 level...bye bye shorts.

>>>So it is actually quite useful to use this board as well as many heavy traffic boards as a contrarian indicator.>>>

Very well stated imo...

Brightness...very nice call today...fortunately i covered early today and picked up a few longs...we have a very potent triangle that measures up to the 1525 level which should fulfill your objective...the higher low on todays reversal sealed it for me. This type of triangle at consolidation under major resistance if normally a continuation pattern and quite bullish.

mlsoft...I would not want to be short if the Naz takes out 1425 on a close...lets say 1430 for safety's sake. The naz has formed a potent Inverse Head/Shoulders pattern which can take this market much higher than most suspect. A break over 1425 ruins the bearish thesis from a technical perspective. There are simply too many shorts in this market to keep it from going down. Theres a good chance we gap and run tomorrow based on the current look of the technicals. KLAC is a mirror of the Naz and KLAC is breaking out big a.h.

>>>I doubt the market is ready for a headlong dash at 1220 yet. We probably will take out 1426 or even 1500 before we take out 1220, and that will not be just a "retest.">>>

Im not looking for a straight down move to any extent just a slow and steady rollover. We have the objective topping on both the Naz and Dow....double top on the Naz and a head/shoulders top on the Dow...the Naz pattern on b/d measures to 1220 and the Dow h/s measures to the 7600 area. I also am heartened by the fact that there are more bulls on this thread in recent days...

>>Why "ironically"?>>> Well you've been calling for 1220 for some time now and I just found it ironic that the newly formed double top measures to your projection. Perhaps you anticipated it in a way based on your indicators.

Appreciate all of your good work here..!

Zeev ironically we've got a double top in on the Nasdaq and it measures to your projected target of 1220 on breakdown. I exited all longs yesterday and took on a few shorts. Whats your timeframe for this move???

TIA!

Sly joined you short on QLGC today....bearish topping stick yesterday...lower high in place on the daily...POOR volume on that last move up...etc...take a look at the Dow chart...a nice bearish H/S top forming

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=_INDU

>>>A real ugly close...>>>

Agree here especially with the test of 1425...i did close out my qlgc position. I will say the internals and price action is giving off mixed signals here...that being said I'm moving to cash here and will not go long unless we can take out that 1425 level on a close.

Bearish topping stick at major resistance...

Yes and qlgc printing a new HOD...agree with your take!

Yes agree...QLGC and CCMP are monsters here...there are so many shorts in there that its helping to prop up those stocks and many other techs imo...

Agree on KLAC...39.70 would be a big right shoulder breakout....im long from last week and would be a buyer on a high volume breakout. Beautiful inverse head/shoulders on the chart...

Sly well understood...you've made some great trades...i'd be careful on qlgc short if 1425 goes...there are just an incredible amount of shorts in that issue which keeps it going up imo. But i do understand shorting right here sub 1425 with a tight stop

Good trading...!

>>>Sly you're on...i say QLGC see's 42 before 34...thats what makes a market.>>>

Bingo there's your 42 and higher imo....hope you're not still short on QLGC waiting for 34...

Bill the action looks very bullish to me...but to be honest I really want to see 1425 taken out on the CLOSE...personally a close over 1430 would seal it....but the action here looks positive. Very little down volume here.

Milton if you look at the UP day volume its stronger than the down day volume the past couple of weeks overall...looks like accumulation to me.

>>>Seeing decreasing volume for the last three days>>>

Im not sure I agree Joe...take a look at the volume on the pullback...contracted nicely day by day...and the last 3 days on the Nasdaq its been steadily improving with the positive price action.

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=_COMPX

>>>Plexus: Care to elaborate what are your "objective topping" #s? VIX, NAZ, P/C etc? Does your "200 day" mean NAZ 200 day MA or others? Thanks.>>>

lostalot...it comforts me to see so many bearish posts and outlooks on this and other threads. Regarding objective topping I say there's no reason to short this market until we get some type of double top...rolling top...head/shoulders top, etc. The key is this...every one of these short covering Nikkei like moves with any sustainability has given us very good objective topping. Take a look at the post 9/11/01 move for example. It exhausted itself around 2100 after moving up from 1350. When it topped out it gave an objective double topping sell signal from which told one to get short. These short covering ramps come from no meaningful consolidation thus they are impossible to know how far they will run. But look for signs of topping...once its in then start shorting imo. We are at a key level/pivot point here at 1425...should 1425 fail we could set up a small double top that would measure down to Zeev's 1220 target. Personally I wont short until I see 1425 fail because theres a good chance that 1425 gets taken out. Watch the Naz here lostalot...its been a leader due to the heavy short interest imo...if it takes out 1430 on the close I think you'll see the Dow and SP 500 follow it up to the 200 day MA's...

Looking back it was the positive divergence on the SP 500/NAZ/DOW on the MACD that gave me caution and led me to cover all shorts close to the bottom....

Leon wise move imo...the powers that be are not shorting this market...bad news is being bought along with good. Its as if the hedge funds winked at one another and are only buying the dips and not shorting here. Personally as Ive been saying for many weeks I wont short until I see objective topping. The VIX took out an uptrend line and looks like its in jeopardy of a major move down here soon. One more leg up to say the 200 day would totally unwind things and set us up for some nice short side entries. But again wait for objective topping in the indices imo. P/C is unwinding some here down to .57 now. The test of 1425 should be quite telling next week.

Best to you!

WAHZ anything's possible...personally the fundamentals really have no meaning in the midst of a short compression Nikkei like move...and yes if they dont improve after this thrust is complete we will roll back over. I agree with your take on the 200 day....im looking for an objective between the 200 day and the 50% retrace level at 1600 should 1425 get taken out. Today was impressive indeed. I bought some more KLAC on the morning discount. Got to like that once again bad econ news was completely ignored...tells me there are still too many shorts in this market to let it go down and tells me theres a better chance of 1425 going next week. QLGC shorts keep chasing the issue but it keeps going up...if somehow it clears 45 that would take out a long term downtrend and really get that issue moving. Reminds me of the post 9/11/01 move where QLGC went from 17 to 56 in just 2 months.

Cheers....!

This doesnt look bearish to me here...if fact the longer we hang around this level the more bullish imo. I exited 2/3rds of positions yesterday as i posted but will be back heavy long with a close over 1425.

>>>I have been pretty quick to cover shorts each time they ramp, but darned if I can get up the nerve to be long here, since I think the risk is heavily weighted to the downside.>>>

MLSOFT...enjoy your posts...as I posted earlier I exited 2/3rds of my longs today given the critical nature of 1425...im more than willing to buy on a close over 1430 if necessary. I think we are heading back to test the 200 day MA in time here...its quite possible we pullback some from the 1425 level tomorrow and depending on the severity of the dip that will determine whether or not I jump back in long.

Per the internals the VIX is still in the low 30's thus it still can unwind quite further over time. The P/C closed at .65 today which I find neutral...also the bull/bear sentiment is about average for the past year (in a mostly downtrending market)...a reading over 55% bulls would get my attention yes. The internals are unwinding here but given the compression on the short side I think we've got a good shot of taking out 1425 and another leg up before this is over. Trust me another leg up to 1500/1600 and the obvious unwinding of the internals at that point with some objective topping would get me VERY bearish...! The fundamentals will come into play after the short compression is unwound further imo. If we do fail here at 1425 the last 1/3rd of my longs will be history quick and ill switch over to the short side...it is tempting to fade the 1425 level but im going to give this some time.

Stay tuned...

Ham good point...take a look at the KLAC chart...if thats not a symmetrical inverse head/shoulders chart I dont know what is...yes i know the fundamentals are horrible but the chart says otherwise. If KLAC were to fail at the right shoulder peak then I'd consider shorting it...however I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls on that issue...a break over the right shoulder highs would have that issue surging.

>>>So... do you want to be caught long if 1425 ISN'T taken out?>>>

Given the proximity of 1425 I exited about 2/3rds of my longs today but will go long once again if we clear 1430 on a closing basis. Very little resistance from that level up to the 200 day at 1510.

>>>the answer is relatively simple; because we've made a small fortune doing so for the past 2 1/2 yrs>>>

Leon congrats you nailed it to the month. I will be the first to admit 2000 was a tough year for me after the gains of the long term bull. But I started shorting and did quite well thank you on the dark side in 2001 and most of this year. However, how could you stay short in the face of a 50 vix...28% bulls 36% bears in terms of sentiment...massive short interest...a positive divergence between the July and October lows...to stay short and KEEP shorting with those internals makes no sense imo.

Trust me ill be back to shorting as soon as I see some type of objective topping. Im more than willing to play both sides...and i say this is nothing more than a Nikkei like straight up short compression move. And when people stop shorting every bounce it will ultimately run its course.

Syl why fight the flow? Trust me when I see objective topping in the indices im on your side quick. But trust me if 1425 gets taken out you dont want to be caught short...we are very close to that level here so caution is advised but I'd be very watchful of that level. Good luck in your trades...

>>>I don't think AMAT news will be taken lightly for too long. This is VERY BAD NEWS and impacts the industry.

Also, being a slave to the futures is dangerous. They can be manipulated fairly easily between trading sessions just to lure in a few more unsuspecting J6Ps only to change rapidly during the day.

Maybe a small GAP and big CRAP tomorrow.>>>

Punkle this was your response to me last night....any more insights? So much for manipulation and CRAP...!

Sly "No signs of a rebound" is much more bullish than what AMAT was saying last night. There are simply TOO MANY shorts in the techs thus they will continue to go up until the short interest is exhausted period. The Nikkei had many impressive rallies of up to 50% such as we may be in the middle of...in fact 1600 is the 50% retrace level of the move from 2100 to 1100 on the Nasdaq and seems a reasonable target if the 200 day is taken out at 1510 to the upside. You DONT want to be caught short if 1425 is taken out on a closing basis. I just dont understand why for the life of me people keep shorting all the way up!!!

If we take out 1425 look out above....we'll have a major ramp up and another short covering stealth move imo...!

Too many shorts in the semi's period and in most of the techs...thats whats keeping the techs so bouyant...once some of the short interest gets exhausted I expect them to fall back to earth and reality.

QLGC runnnning again right on cue. Still say this hits the low to mid 40's on a retest before rolling over...

Zeev looks like a trend day up....what makes you think we see a late day dump?

AMAT is old news already....futures improving nice here and now 3 pts over fair value. Im expecting a nice ramp into the DELL report tomorrow night and expect covering during the day.

Ham...ill be a buyer tomorrow into any a.m. weakness...i'd set a stop at/just below yesterdays low at 1319...i would want to see that level hold along with the 8290 level...if they go you may consider stopping out of positions. I think we are going to see a bit of a weak open as you have to expect semi downgrades (same song and dance...geez this is getting old now) and then a move up later in the day into the DELL report. If the DELL chart is any indication that report should be positive. The chart shows the stock on the cusp of a breakout. I dont own DELL but dont want to be short in front of the report either.

Bottom line for me here is the bullish look of the Nasdaq chart...

Sly you're on...i say QLGC see's 42 before 34...thats what makes a market. Also the range is narrowing here...im expecting a major break soon. Ive got SP 500 futures up 2 pts over Fair Value or today's close currently. Doesn't seem like AMAT is going to have much effect. Too many shorts in the semi's for them to tank here. This market has a way of fooling the maximum and a break over 1425 would do it imo...