I prefer coffee futures, KC

I've traded coffee futures since the mid 90s, but these ETFs offer exposure to those who prefer something other than futures.

JO has better depth & liquidity, so I'd recommend it over JJOFF, but that's just an off-hand opinion - they track each other closely, so performance should be similar.

Also, as I posted on the other board - options may enable you to add some juice to the trade, and while options on both are super-thin, JO possibly offers tradable-depth, whereas JJOFF really doesn't.

Fwiw.

I care. Thanks for posting. Do you prefer trading JO to JJOFF?

There's a new board for this here:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/iPath-DJ-AIG-Coffee-TR-Sub-Idx-JO-20466/

Not that anyone cares...

Sold my repurchased shares last week for about a 14% gain. I'm not as interested in these coffee trades after learning futures are not as depressed as I thought. Sure they were once $3usd but that is largely in part because the Brazilian Real used to be more than twice as strong. Buying coffee futures is an interesting way to play the Real currency in a somewhat short term with less downside if you believe it will strengthen.

Typically, October-December is a strong time for coffee bean futures. Farmers are not making money with prices under $100. Unsustainable. With all these newer boutique coffee companies forming, like BRCC etc, should be strong buying coming into the Holidays

Last major run was because of a surprise frost in Brazil. Seasons are opposite the U.S.

Back in again today at $8.72

Still looking to repurchase shares at a lower price, hoping for low $9 range.

This provided a quick 33% return for me. I am looking to rebuy my traded shares this month. After July, prices should start to gradually increase.

Coffee? Why?

Getting back into buy range after a strong run.

Accumulated in the $8.50 range. I might be early. This is such a poorly followed market, not much reading material out there. Seems like expectations are prices will turn in July

Prices could rebound to $1.20 over the course of the year ‘without breaking a sweat’: analyst

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coffee-futures-may-jump-over-20-by-year-end-with-global-surplus-expected-to-turn-into-a-deficit-2019-03-08

AFP/Getty Images
Coffee futures may see a significant rise this year with a potential deficit in global coffee supplies
Author photo
By

MYRA
P. SAEFONG
MARKETS/COMMODITIES REPORTER
Coffee has fallen below a dollar a pound to trade close to its lowest level in more than a decade, but a global glut that pushed prices down for the past two years may finally come to an end in 2019.

“The coffee market is fighting a war on a few different fronts at the moment,” says John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Brazil’s 2018 bumper crop, which produced a record 62 million 60 kilogram bags of Arabica and Robusta coffee, has pushed prices to multiyear lows—well below the cost of production for most farmers, he says.

Futures prices US:KCK9 settled at 96.80 cents a pound on Feb. 26 on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. That was the lowest finish for a most-active contract since September, when prices hit a daily settlement of 95.85 cents—the lowest since late July 2006. Prices ended the past two years with a loss and, at 98.50 cents on Thursday, were nearly 4% lower year to date.

For now, “favorable near-term weather for what is expected to be an ‘off year’ for coffee production has put a damper on prices to start out 2019,” says Caruso. After a big production year, coffee trees produce a bit less the following year as they recover. “The slump in the Brazilian real versus the [U.S. dollar] has also put pressure on the market, as the two are highly correlated,” he says. Coffee is globally priced in dollars. When the real weakens against the dollar, that encourages Brazilian farmers to export more coffee to the world market, he says. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer.

Global commodities brokerage Marex Spectron estimates total global coffee supplies at 172.3 million bags for the 2018-19 marketing year, with demand estimated at 164.4 million. That points to a surplus of 7.9 million bags. An early global output estimate from Marex shows a decline to 166.9 million bags and a rise in demand to 168.1 million for 2019-20—a supply deficit of 1.2 million bags. Marex Spectron analysts also point out that “underlying demand remains healthy, growing at 2% to 2.5% per annum.” Current prices are below the cost of production for many growers “washed,” or wet processed, Arabica coffee, which will “have an impact on production levels.”

Caruso says the cost of production for most farmers stands at $1.20 to $1.50, so with prices at sub-$1 levels, he also sees a possible supply deficit on deck. “I love coffee from a value standpoint,” he says. “We think that any little catalyst—whether it be weather related, currency related, or even short covering from its massive net speculative short position of 63,000 contracts, could create a buying spree for value hunters.” Prices could rebound to $1.20 over the course of the year “without breaking a sweat,” he says.

Prices may still have room to drop further, however, notes Jack Scoville, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. He see prices possibly falling to lower-90-cent or upper-80-cent levels by midsummer. “But then we should start to recover” with the threat of reduced production creating at least a short covering rally. Price increases are likely to “eventually” be passed on to consumers, though they “rarely have an immediate effect,” says Caruso. Worldwide coffee consumption is rising, and there’s potential for a supply deficit by year-end, so a “price bump in your $3 morning coffee would be on the way.”

For investors, Caruso says he likes the ICE traded futures contract, the world benchmark for Arabica coffee. Investors may also consider the iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return exchange-traded note JO, +3.77% and the iPath Pure Beta Coffee ETN.

I am gradually building a position in JJOFF. If anyone comes in here please reply to one of my posts so I get an alert.

It's difficult to find useful information so any input on staying a step agead is appreciated.