This is more my speed - Cintas (CTAS). What a great long term holding. The LT chart is about as great as it gets -


>>> Cintas Corporation (CTAS) provides corporate identity uniforms and related business services primarily in the United States, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Uniform Rental and Facility Services, First Aid and Safety Services, and All Other segments. The company rents and services uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels, and other ancillary items; and provides restroom cleaning services and supplies, as well as sells uniforms. In addition, the company offers first aid and safety services, and fire protection products and services. It provides its products and services through its distribution network and local delivery routes, or local representatives to small service and manufacturing companies, as well as major corporations. Cintas Corporation was founded in 1968 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cintas Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Cintas Corporation.

<<<




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Another microcap on a roll is M-Tron Industries (MPTI), which has tripled since last summer, but market cap still only 110 mil. Looks like it was spun out of LGL Group in Fall 2022, but LGL Group is even smaller, mkt cap only 32 mil, so this would require considerable research. Ah, the allure of microcaps, but a dangerous realm -


>>> M-tron Industries, Inc. (MPTI), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of frequency and spectrum control products. The company's products include radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave filters; cavity, crystal, ceramic, lumped element, and switched filters; high frequency and performance OCXOs, integrated PLL OCXOs, TCXOs, VCXOs, and low jitter and harsh environment oscillators; crystal resonators, integrated microwave assemblies; and solid-state power amplifier products. Its products are used in applications in the commercial and military aerospace, defense, space, and other commercial markets. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida. <<<



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That IS a wild one. I looked more into what they do and it reads like gobbledy gook.
The only thing real I can find it that they continually disappoint with earnings....
that said, IF you are a gambler and flipper, today would be a good day to do so. It may be $38 next week and its $24 today.

Here's a wild one that came up on the radar - Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT). It's up over 10 fold since November, so a 'hot potato', but the market cap is only 345 mil range, so might be one to follow once it consolidates -


>>> Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. (DRCT) operates as an end-to-end full-service programmatic advertising platform. The company's platform primarily focuses on providing advertising technology, data-driven campaign optimization, and other solutions to underserved and less efficient markets on both the buy- and sell-side of the digital advertising ecosystem. It serves various industry verticals, such as travel, healthcare, education, financial services, consumer products, and other sectors with a focus on small and mid-sized businesses. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. <<<


>>> Market Mavericks: 7 Growth Stocks Outshining the Giants <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174009260



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Derf, The system is fairly new, but so far the individual stock portion has outperformed the S+P 500 by a sizable margin. Over time I figure it will even out, but hopefully it will approximate the S+P 500's returns.

The other appeal of all these stocks (over 200) is the collecting aspect. Not sure where that urge comes from, but I collect everything from rocks + minerals, to records, posters, even sea shells. So why should stocks be any different, lol. 'Stock collecting' is an interesting / fun hobby, and something to do in retirement. But.. the danger is veering into active trading, lower quality stocks, etc. Been there, done that (poorly), so will stick with long term / high quality stocks.




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Interesting....and now your returns?

Derf, >> cumbersome to sell AND you can quickly exit <<

The stock allocation is divided into two roughly equal parts -

1) Individual stocks (lots of them) and some sector ETFs

2) S+P 500 ETF


#1 is too cumbersome to sell, while #2 is easy to sell. So if a 2008 or 2020 type market meltdown is looming, you can quickly sell #2, and if necessary can also use the proceeds to hedge your #1 market exposure. So a 25% stock allocation can be instantly reduced in half, and then if desired, reduced to zero via an inverse ETF like SH. Even if you don't actually do it, the fact that it's available provides considerable peace of mind.

As John Bogle said, investors make the bulk of their profits by sitting tight and riding the stock market's long term uptrend. The key is to somehow manage the angst side of 'staying the course'. Buffett said the key to investing success isn't intellect, but temperament, ie managing one's emotional side. So that's what this system tries to do.



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OK, so I'm perusing through old posts by various posters here and come across $NVEI.
I can't recall without researching further whether I thought this stock was a scam or good play, but just yesterday it jumped about 30%+....Still know nothing about them, but it's not a penny stock.....although it may be due to a reverse split or something....dunno.

Hmmmm, It's weird after all these years, but also awesome to forget something exists then be able to look ahead to see if it worked....

https://www.linkedin.com/company/marketocracy

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090154/000089418904001823/marketocracyncsr.htm

In truth, I didn't put all that much effort into my picks and tended to take more risk than I normally would, or sat on too much cash.....or just forgot about managing it.

Well hold on thar......you can't exactly say it's cumbersome to sell AND you can quickly exit.

But the bottom line is, how have you done each year, 5 year rolling, 10 year avg?
Are you outperforming the S&P 500?

Some years back there was a website where, for fun you could create your own mutual fund and it would track it for you....Marketocracy I think???? Something like that. Anyway, they tracked it for you to see how you did. The interesting thing was after a year or so, they approached the best and offered to pay them to be money managers for others on there. Kind'a genius and I didn't see that coming (much like I didn't understand most of where the internet was going).....anyway, they offered me a deal to be one of their managers. I don't even recall how you got paid, but I wasn't interested. Seemed like too much work for too little pay.

Interesting. I hadn't thought about this in years, but just Googled it and found this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketocracy

Dang it! Found the website but don't recall my password or username then
https://www.marketocracymasters.com/about

It's all coming back to me now.....I think Ken reached out to me and wanted a fee to continue tracking first. I told him my picks were payment and we agreed to disagree.

Derf, Yes, zero commissions make it easy to build your own custom ETF. I figure there are so many great stocks, why limit it to a handful or a few dozen. Some brokerages also have fractional shares with no commission, which comes in handy for buying high priced stocks like AZO, AVGO, etc.

Before the days of zero commissions, there was a site where you could create your own quasi ETFs and buy the entire thing for a single commission. Other investors could also buy your ETF if they liked it, and pay you a modest fee. I built a bunch of custom ETFs over there for several years, but once zero commissions took off, you could do the same thing for no cost at all. So now it's 'hog heaven' for us stock collectors. lol.

In addition to the diversification, part of the rationale for so many positions is that it's just too cumbersome to sell, so you are forced to 'stay the course' and hold long term. With the longer term mentality reinforced, the tendency then is to gravitate toward solid long term stocks, and these are relatively easy to identify based on their 10-15 year charts. So this gets around some basic investing problems - 1) staying the course, 2) having a short term mindset, 3) drifting into crappy stocks, 4) having to accurately micro-analyze individual stocks. None of us are a Buffett or Peter Lynch, but in my system you don't need to be.

The other side of this system is the large S+P 500 allocation. I figure this should be at least as large as the individual stock portion, and if another 2008 debacle or Covid crash is looming, you can quickly exit the S+P 500. Then with this safely in cash, you have reduced your market exposure by half, and also have the ability to hedge the remaining individual stock exposure, up to 100%, by buying an inverse ETF like SH. I've never done it, but the option is available. Anyway, that's the basic system I came up with. But everyone is different, so whatever works :o)



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I sure hope you aren't paying much in commissions because I just can't fathom the way you buy stocks. It's like you own a mutual fund without the fund manager.
Is owning 1 share of 10 companies really better than owning 10 shares of 1?

Derf, >> PANW <<

Yes, a decent pullback, so may be a good entry point. I have a whopping 1 share at 284 (yippee), plus a similar small position in FTNT. Another good one is CYBR, though it looks overbought, as do the broader Cybersecurity ETFs like CIBR. I had a bunch of those during the big 2020-21 runup, but didn't get back into the sector until recently, with PANW, FTNT.

I see some analysts are concerned that PANW's newly announced business model (platformization) may signal that a price war could be brewing in the cybersecurity space, but still early. The firewall makers might also be headed for trouble due to the move to the cloud (article below). It's always something with these tech stocks, so I figure it's probably best to have small positions and spread the risk around -


>>> Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch Amid Shift To AI, Cloud <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174050760




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Looks like a decent entry point now

PANW - >>> 1 Amazing Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Down 29% You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip


by Anthony Di Pizio

Motley Fool

February 26, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-amazing-artificial-intelligence-ai-102900913.html


Cyber threats are a growing concern among the world's top businesses. Technologies like generative artificial intelligence (AI) are helping bad actors craft sophisticated attacks by creating hyper-realistic phishing emails, and voice recordings that can trick employees into handing over sensitive information.

In fact, 64% of the 4,702 CEOs recently surveyed by PwC believe generative AI will increase cybersecurity risk in their organizations over the next 12 months. It was their biggest concern when it comes to AI, outranking the spread of misinformation and potential legal risks.

Advanced cybersecurity tools that use AI to deliver smarter, more automated protection are required to combat these new-age threats -- and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) is a leader in that very field, but the stock has had a rough go of it lately.

The company recently released results for its fiscal 2024's second quarter (ended Jan. 31). That sent the shares plunging 29% as the company announced a shift in its business strategy. However, these new steps could bear fruit over the long term. Here's why investors should consider the stock now.

Palo Alto is a leader in AI-based cybersecurity

Palo Alto's business is split into three platforms: network security, cloud security, and security operations. The company is gradually weaving AI through many of the products under those banners to give businesses the most advanced protection possible.

Here's a notable statistic. Palo Alto says 93% of security operations centers within organizations still rely on human-led processes. Cybersecurity managers are under such a heavy workload that 23% of incidents are left uninvestigated, which creates an unacceptable number of vulnerabilities.

Palo Alto's Cortex XSIAM security operations platform was designed to solve that problem. AI and automation are at its core, and for one large customer, it has reduced the number of incidents that require manual investigation by 75%. Another customer now has 90% of their security incidents solved by automation, up from 10% prior to adopting XSIAM. XSIAM was launched a little over one year ago, and it has already amassed a revenue pipeline worth $1 billion.


But the AI opportunity is just heating up. Organizations and their employees will be using AI an increasing amount in the coming years, and Palo Alto says security isn't yet front and center. They could be accessing AI in an insecure manner that places their critical data at risk, and plugging those vulnerabilities could be a $5 billion opportunity by 2030.

Plus, Palo Alto says the frequency of phishing emails has increased 12-fold over the last year because of AI's ability to generate them instantly. According to CrowdStrike, 90% of successful cyberattacks originate at the endpoint -- the computer or device used by each employee -- making it the most vulnerable part of every company.

Phishing emails tend to target those employees, and since Palo Alto already protects roughly 100 million individual users, it has a huge opportunity ahead in limiting the damage.

A strong Q2, but reduced full-year forecast

Palo Alto delivered $2 billion of revenue in the second quarter, marking a 19% increase from the year-ago period. It also delivered $1.46 in non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share, which was a 39% increase. Palo Alto was profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, too, although the result benefited from a large one-off income tax benefit.

The point is, this company is delivering revenue growth without substantial losses at the bottom line, unlike many of its competitors, which are still burning through cash each quarter. Palo Alto's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) also soared 22% to $10.8 billion, which typically converts to revenue over time.

However, Palo Alto's management team unexpectedly reduced its forecast for both RPOs and revenue for the fiscal 2024 full year. The company is undergoing a major strategy shift to position itself for accelerated growth in the future.

The shift toward platformization

The cybersecurity industry is fragmented, with companies often piecing products together from different providers based on their needs. Historically, Palo Alto has relied on the quality of its products to attract its customers to use more of them.

I mentioned earlier that Palo Alto's business is split into three platforms. Well, the lifetime value of customers using all three platforms is 40 times greater than those using just one. Therefore, incentivizing large customers to use Palo Alto for all of their needs could drive enormous growth in the long term.

The problem is that large organizations often have existing contracts with their cybersecurity providers and can't simply opt out whenever they please. So, Palo Alto is offering them fee-free periods to capture them while they are still contracted with a competitor. Then, once that contact runs out, they will convert into paying customers for Palo Alto.

It's a great strategy that forgoes short-term revenue (hence the drop in billings and revenue guidance) in exchange for potentially significant growth in the long term. Plus, it squeezes out Palo Alto's competitors in the process.

Why Palo Alto stock is a buy now

Palo Alto believes the accelerated shift to platformization will help the company reach $15 billion in annual revenue by 2030, 90% of which will be recurring revenue, creating a stable and reliable business.

Considering that the company expects to deliver $8 billion in revenue during fiscal 2024, hitting that goal would translate to an 87.5% increase between now and then -- or a compound annual growth rate of 11%.

However, Palo Alto thinks there could be upside to its $15 billion target thanks to AI. That isn't surprising given that so many companies developing AI technologies are delivering explosive growth right now. The truth is, nobody knows exactly how much the threat landscape might be altered by sophisticated AI-based attacks, so the true size of Palo Alto's long-term opportunity is hard to discern.

So, while investors rushed for the exits following the reduction in Palo Alto's guidance, the 29% drop in its stock price presents an opportunity for investors who are willing to hold for the long term. They might be glad they bought in when they look back on this moment in a few years, assuming Palo Alto's vision becomes reality.

<<<



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>>> PTC for the new manufacturing world

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-great-value-stocks-set-172200800.html

This industrial software company's solutions lie at the heart of the digitization of the manufacturing sector. Its computer-aided design (CAD) software helps customers digitally create and modify designs. The products that are designed can be digitally analyzed and tested via simulation before they are built. This interface between the physical and digital worlds continues with PTC's product lifecycle management (PLM) software. Meanwhile, its Internet of Things (IoT) software digitally integrates products and assets.

Digital technology is revolutionizing manufacturing and helping reduce product development times while creating so-called "closed loop" manufacturing, whereby data is being constantly analyzed to improve production iteratively, and can even lead to adjustments to the product design.

These are hot concepts in modern manufacturing plants, and PTC is a leader in the field. The company continues to grow its annual run rate revenue, a figure that represents its recurring revenue, at a mid-teens growth rate, and it's likely to drop down into significantly more free-cash-flow generation in the coming years. Wall Street analysts have PTC growing its free cash flow to around $1 billion in 2026, putting the stock at a ratio of 20 times estimated 2026 free cash flow at the current price. That's a good value for a company growing at a mid-teens rate.

<<<



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>>> Is Prologis Stock a Buy?


by Reuben Brewer

Motley Fool

March 2, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prologis-stock-buy-141800671.html


Prologis (NYSE: PLD) has a market cap of $120 billion, making it one of the largest publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) you can buy. There's a good reason it's so large, but size alone is no reason to buy the stock of a company. In fact, Prologis, despite being a well-run company, may be a less than desirable choice for some investors. Here's what you need to know.

Prologis' business is big, diversified, and attractive

Prologis owns warehouses, which is not unique at all in the REIT sector. What sets it apart from its peers is the size and diversification of its portfolio. Prologis owns 1.2 billion square feet of leasable space spread over 5,500 properties across four continents and 20 countries. No other warehouse REIT comes close to those statistics.

Notably, the properties Prologis owns are mostly located in key global distribution hubs. So not only is its portfolio big, but its properties are located where its over 6,700 customers want to operate. Given its scale, meanwhile, Prologis can actually offer something of a one-stop shop for customers with global operations.

On top of that, the company has been benefiting from leases ending and being resigned at materially higher rates. So there's built-in growth within the active properties it owns. Prologis, however, also owns over 12,000 acres of developable land around the world. That's another $40 billion growth opportunity, by management's estimate.

Now add in a decade of dividend growth at a compound annual rate of around 11%. That's an attractive track record for any company, but particularly impressive for a REIT. The most recent annual increase was 10%, so the company is still going strong on this measure. Given the business backdrop, meanwhile, there's good reason to think the dividend growth story will continue. If you are a dividend growth investor, Prologis could be a very attractive choice.

Prologis' yield is both good and bad

Prologis is currently offering investors a 2.8% dividend yield. If you're looking to live off of the income your portfolio generates, that probably won't be the least bit exciting to you. The average REIT, using Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSEMKT: VNQ) as a proxy, is offering a yield of over 4.1%. This is a dividend growth stock, not a high-yield stock.

That said, the dividend yield is around the middle of the road if you look at the REIT's yield range over the past decade. So while it would be hard to suggest the stock is cheap right now, it also doesn't look expensive, using yield as a rough proxy for valuation. If you're a growth-and-income or dividend growth-focused investor, a fair price for a well-positioned industry giant like Prologis is a pretty attractive proposition.

But the stock isn't trading at depressed levels, so value investors will probably also want to take a pass here. A yield above 3% would be a far more compelling entry point if you're value conscious. However, even that might not be enough to entice a yield-focused investor.

A fair price for a great company

Prologis is not a value stock, and it's not a high yield stock. It will probably never be either of those things, given its strong industry position. But it is a solid option for dividend growth and growth-and-income investors. While it looks fully priced today, it's not a bad thing to pay a fair price for a well-run company if you have a long investment horizon.

<<<



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2 year play
CEO buyout in two years

X 1. Cash Flow Positive Status - 5 years
X 2. Purchase main building housing their cGMP registered facility for research, development, manufacturing and packaging of pharmaceutical products.
X 3. Adderall IR $335 Million Approved and Launched
X 4. Adderall XR $1.56 Billion Approved and Launched
X 5. Double digit quarterly revenues in millions
X 6. In house marketing and distribution: Kirkov
X 7. Prasco/Burel Adderall agreement starting January 1st 2024
X 8. First shipment Adderall XR to PRASCO Dec 2023
X 9. DEA increases manufacturing quotas for Adderall & Vyvance
X 10. Generic Vyvanse - $5.1 BILLION - FDA submission Dec 2023
X 11. FDA Acceptance of Generic OxyContin Sept 2023
__12. $50 million in yearly revenues
__13. Generate revenues over $20 million/quarter
__14. Generic OxyContin Approval -;FIRST TO FILE Aug 17, 2023 $720 Million
__15. Prevail over Purdue in Generic OxyContin infringement suit - 6 month stay
X 16. Lease additional manufacturing space and storage vault for new Needle Mover ANDAs Jan 2024
__17. European distribution - Dexcel partnership approval by Israeli Health
__18. Full ownership of Adderall IR $ 335 Million
__19. Full ownership of Adderall XR $ 1.56 Billion
__20. Generic Concerta- $1.2 BILLION FDA submission
__21. Vigabatrin - VigPoder approved Pyros $233 Million trade mark challenge
__22. $100 million in yearly revenues
__23. Dopamine Agonist (probably Requip XL or Mirapex ER). $12 Million
__24. Patented Unique ADF (w/o naltrexone)-- NDA
__25. Mikah ANDA (s)
__26. Undisclosed ANDAs/NDAs
__27. Antimetabolite ANDA- Methotrexate -$600 Million - unconfirmed
__28. Undisclosed Antimetabolite ANDA- $42 Million
__29. Generic Vyvanse Approval
__30. DollarLand PPS
__31. Uplist to the NASDAQ Exchange
__32. ELTP Elite Pharmaceutical Buyout - less than 2 1/2 years from Feb 2024
__33. Vegas Baby !!!!!!!

What would Mr. Hakim say is the likelihood that Elite will get bought out by a large rival within the next five years?

Ya had to know SMCI would respond like "tulipmania". Like I told you before it got there....$1000 was going to be a trigger point and it just depended on who'd be first to sell. I guess the stock needed a "roaring kitty" to calm the masses, but that money was so fast and easy, people weren't going to wait to find out its true worth. After all, I'd bet more than half the people who bought it, didn't have a clue what the company did.
My guess is $555 is a support level, but you really can't tell since it went up so quickly. The fact that my selling too soon cost me a new Volvo kind of ticks me off.
The spousal_unit keeps reminding me how much I made on it though.....who wants calm and reasoning at a time like this?!!

edit: just looked it up. Current support is at $300...THREE HUNDRED!!! But that's gonna rise quickly over the days. I'll stick with the $555 guess only because it's somewhere in the middle of reality.
Meanwhile, I don't know why I never jumped into NVDA...other than I guess I didn't understand it.
What is $AI doing wrong?

Derf, With SMCI, I figure it had to have a correction / pullback eventually, and as you predicted, 1000 was a logical near term top. But interest in Ai is going to continue for some time, so these Ai stocks should have continued interest from investors.

Other Ai related stocks like NVDA and PLTR are still remaining buoyant today, so we'll see where SMCI goes from here. Chart-wise it's tough to say since the move up was so large and fast. The only real point of reference support-wise would be the rising 50 MA at 438, but it was 'left in the dust' by the big move, so it's anyone's guess where support areas will be right now. Possibly around the 600-700 area, but just a guess, and more likely it might only retrace to 800, or 700 - 800 (?) I'm just going to hang with it since AI isn't going away, and the remaining shares are essentially 'free' after the double.

The PLTR chart is still suggesting another leg up to 30. It has that 'pregnant pause' look to it, so might have another near term blast (to 30), though after that who knows. I'm not that enamored with PLTR, but figure a small position makes sense.




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SMCI may fall faster than GME.....People late to the game will be pissed today as they realize they were both too late to buy and too late to sell.
Any predictions how far it falls today before a dead cat bounce?

I guess I hit that one right. Up about 40% in it.

Looks like PLTR could be poised for another up leg? That's how the current chart looks anyway. I have a tiny position, but am not a huge fan of the company.



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Nice job. I kept forgetting to buy AVGO on several occasions.

Derf, In addition to Ai, the semiconductor related stocks in general have been doing well. I have some AVGO, KLAC, MPWR, which have great long term charts. Munger said he never liked the semi sector because it's so capital intensive, and the companies have to continually spend to upgrade their equipment, which hurts profitability. But in recent years the sector has been going gangbusters. 10 years ago Broadcom was already a fairly big player, but the stock is up 50 fold in a decade, so pretty amazing.



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Good job. I do see it has hit $999 today. Considering I had bought at $37, it may well be one of those once in a lifetimes, but sure wouldn't want to end up like the GME people who have kept their shares.
For some dumb reason, I'm currently buying conservative stocks, when AI does seem like the play. Picking the right one is the tricky part.

Again, there was a time when all managers strived to beat the index. The only fund family I see doing it with any consistency now is American Funds.....which is who I use mostly.

Derf, I took your advice with SMCI and took some profits today. It had doubled in 3 weeks, so I sold half and will keep the other 'free' half for the longer term. Looks like it should reach 1000 soon, but I figure no sense getting too greedy. A double in 3 weeks was pretty exciting, albeit only a small position.

Looks like the Ai space is entering bubble territory, but conceivably may keep elevating way beyond the point of reason. So a sign of a frothy market, but what will end the party? Lots of geopolitical landmines out there right now, which the market has so far been ignoring. Also, I figure the election uncertainty and angst will become more of an issue by summer. But hopefully there's a 'window' of months before Wall Street's party runs into trouble.




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Derf, >> S&P index fund. It is the only fund guaranteed to underperform the index <<

It will only underperform by the fund's expense ratio, which is negligible (0.02%, 0.03%, or for the SPY 0.09%)

The problem with stock picking is that hardly anybody can beat the S+P 500's return over time. Active managers might get lucky for a few years, but then they underperform for the next period of years. Even a whiz like Buffett or Peter Lynch owe most of their overperformance to the early years when they had much less $$ to deploy, and could thus have concentrated positions. Unfortunately as stock pickers, none of us are in their league, or even close.

So might as well face it, Jack Bogle was right ---> use a low cost index fund for the bulk of one's stock allocation. I add in a bunch of individual stocks, but these are just minor add-ons to help keep it fun / interesting. The unfortunate reality seems to be that -- 'the more you trade, the more you lose' / underperform. That's been my experience anyway.




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Hey, I love Warren as much as the next guy (provided the next guy isn't bar1080), but no one ever talks about his ability to get inside information AND not have to report his sales like a mutual fund would.
I am NOT a fan of buying an S&P index fund. It is the only fund guaranteed to underperform the index. Of course almost all mutual fund managers have become panty wastes and more afraid of risk than they are overperforming the market. There was a time the Index was far below average. If ya gotta buy the S&P, I prefer $RSP where at least you're getting an equal weighting. The time WILL come when the big 6 stocks don't carry the market. Although I read now that all the cool kids have left the FAANG and moved on to the MAMAA. 26% of the S&P right there!

Anywho, my only point with your stocks posted is, at they are typically at their all time high. Not a place I like to start out....unless its SCMI.

Derf, >> find a way to spot these breakout stocks a week earlier <<

That would help for trading, but my strategy has evolved into mainly buy / hold. Trading can be fun, but I figure that buy / hold should produce the best results by simply riding the stock market's historical long term uptrend, and using a broad index like the S+P 500 to eliminate the vagaries of picking stocks and sectors.

But I figure that also having a group of individual stocks makes sense. It's not only a fun and interesting hobby, but having a group of individual stocks also makes it too cumbersome to sell, so that forces you to 'stay the course' with at least something. Meanwhile, since the S+P 500 ETF component can be sold off quickly, this reduces the angst of feeling trapped in a deteriorating market.

Anyway, Buffett says the #1 challenge we have as investors is controlling our temperament / emotions, so the idea is to minimize the angst aspects down to a manageable level. Anyway, still a 'work in progress', but it seems to be producing much better results than my earlier forays into active trading. So, boring but better results, and the individual stock side is still fun to follow even though the positions are relatively small. Everyone is different, but for nervous nellies like me, I figure the key is getting the right balance.



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Well, it certainly poisoned my board. We went from a fun loving and informative sharing of thoughts, to some people demanding I boot others, and others too angry to think objectively.
On the positive side, an ineffective government is good for the economy and Wall Street. Let 'em argue amongst themselves, it keeps them from finding a reason to tax me further.
There is no right any more from either side of the aisle. I'd root for a good clear thinking third party if one could be created. However, as I've always said, no intelligent person suited to be President would ever want to BE President.

So, first off....the media is calling for $1000 for this stock, so expect people thinking that's an exit point. Better to be a bit early than a bit late (although not in my case).....Personally, if I were you, I'd be happy over $950. Its like earnings reports, everyone now wants to sell in advance.

BTW, just noticed how many different boards you moderate! Geez! How have I never run across you before?
You need to find a way to spot these breakout stocks a week earlier than you do. I'm guessing, you have a computer setting to spot stocks moving up a certain percent, or maybe based on volume. If you can hone a better criteria, you'll be onto something. I'd suggest a sector tracker.
If you are unaware of Tommy Dorsey and his point and figure system, it may be just the thing for you.

Derf, >> no benefit of arguing politics <<

Yes, it's an area where people's objectivity has largely been switched off. The political landscape can play a role in the stock markets, ie whether the oil/gas sector is in vogue, or the dog house, etc. But US politics has become so divisive that it can easily 'poison the well' on I-Hub boards.



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I've never seen that guy's posts before, but doing a quick reading through the years, I like his thought process.
Although, he does waste a bit too much time trying to argue politics around here.
Funny, I'll argue all day over the lack of value of a penny stock, but see no benefit of arguing politics with people who aren't in my voting area anyway.

Derf, Btw, looks like SMCI is likely heading for the 1000 level, which is where I'll probably take some profits. It's a miniscule position, but nice to see it zooming. But the 'Ai mania' may indicate the market is getting over-frothy.

Fwiw, I'm figuring the stock and bond markets could have a tailwind over the next several years, thanks to falling % rates, lower inflation, and a resilient economy. But also lots of landmines out there -- geopolitical, war, election angst, regional bank problems, etc. 30% is about all I'm willing to risk on the stock allocation side, and will 'hope for the best'.

On the positive side (for the US / West), it looks like BRICS expansion has been blunted, with Argentina deciding to not join BRICS, and Saudi Arabia also putting its BRICS plans on hold. So a reprieve for the US and the Petrodollar system, at least for now.


The BRICS Juggernaut -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/The-BRICS-Juggernaut-30100



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Derf, >> Lithium <<

It turns out there's a glut of lithium supply, which has tanked the price and most of the lithium plays -


Battery metals glut - >>> Base Metals Up, Gold Edged Higher, Battery Metals Glut <<<

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173718639


A good source of info on this area is the poster n4807g (link below). I've re-posted some of his posts on my 'Energy Storage' board.
It's been a frustrating area for investors, along with the rare earths and strategic metals in general. I only follow them very loosely -


Re-post - >>> With price of Spodumene continuing to slide have decided to sell most of my remaining PILBF. I expect the 1st half of 2024 (and maybe beyond) to be a difficult year for battery minerals. Better to lock in profits today and look for lower prices in the 2nd half of 2024. <<<

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173546830


Energy Storage Sector -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Energy-Storage-38181

Strategic Materials -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Strategic-Materials-37554



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Every one of these sucks....

A while back I went searching for a trustworthy lithium stock to buy. I didn't find one so settled on the ETF, $LIT. It did not work and I don't understand why?
I do know of several Chinese and Russian companies that have made deals to buy up rare earth mines in California. Not even sure why our government allows this. IF, the government truly sees this as the future, why are we not mining and hoarding??

>>> Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Reports Robust Revenue Growth and Solid Earnings in Q4 and Full ...


GuruFocus Research

Feb 12, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medpace-holdings-inc-medp-reports-213433201.html


Revenue Growth: Q4 revenue increased by 26.5% to $498.4 million, and full-year revenue jumped by 29.2% to $1.885.8 million.

Net Income: Q4 GAAP net income rose to $78.3 million, with a net income margin of 15.7%. Full-year net income reached $282.8 million.

Earnings Per Share: Diluted EPS for Q4 was $2.46, up from $2.12 in the prior-year period. Full-year diluted EPS increased to $8.88.

EBITDA: Q4 EBITDA grew by 19.2% to $95.8 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 19.2%. Full-year EBITDA was $362.5 million.

Backlog and Book-to-Bill Ratio: Backlog as of December 31, 2023, increased by 20.2% to $2.813.0 million, with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x for Q4.

2024 Financial Guidance: Medpace forecasts 2024 revenue in the range of $2.150 billion to $2.200 billion, with GAAP net income expected between $326.0 million and $348.0 million.

Liquidity and Share Repurchase: Cash and cash equivalents stood at $245.4 million, and the company repurchased 781,068 shares for $144.0 million in 2023.

On February 12, 2024, Medpace Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MEDP) released its 8-K filing, announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2023. The late-stage contract research organization, known for its full-service drug development and clinical trial services, reported significant revenue growth and an increase in net income, reflecting a strong performance in a competitive industry.

Financial Performance Highlights

Medpace's revenue for Q4 2023 reached $498.4 million, a 26.5% increase from the $394.1 million reported in the same period last year. This growth was attributed to a backlog conversion rate of 18.5%. The full-year revenue also saw a substantial rise, with a 29.2% increase to $1.885.8 million compared to the previous year. The company's net new business awards for Q4 were $614.7 million, marking a 26.7% increase from the prior-year period and resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x.

GAAP net income for Q4 was $78.3 million, or $2.46 per diluted share, compared to $68.7 million, or $2.12 per diluted share, for the same quarter in the previous year. The net income margin slightly decreased to 15.7% from 17.4% in Q4 2022. For the full year, GAAP net income was $282.8 million, or $8.88 per diluted share, up from $245.4 million, or $7.28 per diluted share, in 2022.

EBITDA for Q4 2023 increased by 19.2% to $95.8 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 19.2%. The full-year EBITDA also grew by 17.7% to $362.5 million. These financial achievements underscore Medpace's ability to efficiently manage its operations and maintain profitability in the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry.

Operational and Strategic Developments

Medpace's operational efficiency is reflected in its direct costs and SG&A expenses. For Q4 2023, total direct costs were $361.6 million, and SG&A expenses were $42.5 million. The company's balance sheet remains strong, with cash and cash equivalents of $245.4 million as of December 31, 2023. Medpace generated $156.4 million in cash flow from operating activities during Q4 2023 and repurchased 781,068 shares for $144.0 million throughout the year.

Looking ahead, Medpace provided its 2024 financial guidance, forecasting revenue in the range of $2.150 billion to $2.200 billion, which would represent a growth of 14.0% to 16.7% over 2023 revenue. The company also anticipates GAAP net income for the full year 2024 to be between $326.0 million and $348.0 million, with EBITDA expected in the range of $400.0 million to $430.0 million.

Medpace's continued investment in its global infrastructure and its disciplined approach to clinical development have positioned the company for sustained growth. With a strong financial foundation and a clear strategic direction, Medpace is well-equipped to navigate the dynamic landscape of the biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device industries.

For more detailed information on Medpace Holdings Inc's financial results, investors and interested parties are encouraged to review the full 8-K filing.

Explore the complete 8-K earnings release (here) from Medpace Holdings Inc for further details.

<<<



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When I was a younger trader, my strategy was always....
sell if I have a 30% profit....or a 15% loss. I only had to be right half as often this way.
However, as I got older and also, the changing of the stock market (I think things started changing when companies quit doing stock splits), my strategy changed with it, and I sell off my cost basis on the winners and let them ride...or sell them in thirds.
I did this with $SMCI until I really believed it was due for a pullback. The stock of the decade and I sold all of it too soon. I really have to take that stock off my screen. Driving me nuts.
Anyway, I've never been a bottom fisher and try not to ever buy at a top. I look to buy just as stocks break through a major resistance, and go for the meaty middle of the stock cycle. In my situation, I really don't need the home runs any more. More important to avoid any major mistakes. That's the problem with having a lot of money in the market. A correction gets magnified, which is why I keep leaking money over to annuities. Lock in those gains.
Although, if you read those prospectuses. They leave themselves a lot of outs in things go south.
There are insurance companies I see teetering on the edge of implosion, and only this ridiculous printing of money non stop from our government has saved them.
Not nearly enough people consider what inflation does to their nest egg.
I like to refer people back to the Milton Bradley game, The Game of Life. See what they considered to be wealthy in 1970.

Derf, >> all time highs <<

Yes, it seems like a lot of stocks are now at / near their all time highs. But for stocks like AAON, the long term trajectory has been well established over many years, so I see it as a long term buy / hold. It has reached the upper boundary of its long term channel, so one trading strategy might be to take profits and then try to re-enter later once it returns to the lower channel line area. But you would have to be right twice -- at the exit point, and again at the re-entry point, so getting both right would be a tall order. So with these I figure long term buy / hold makes the most sense.

For active trading strategies, I tried different approaches over the years, but never found one that worked consistently. I tried biotech stocks (big mistake), and also did a few 'pincher plays', which were fun to analyze on the charts, but are treacherous. A conservative trading approach would be to channel trade a stock during an extended uptrend or downtrend. This should be a high percentage strategy since the odds are that an established trend will continue / resume. Covered call options is another conservative idea, as a way to enhance the yield on a stock you already own, though I haven't tried it,

Lots of ways to make or lose money in the market. I figure buying quality and holding long term has its advantages :o)



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Not knocking your picks, but you're finding them at all time highs.
AAON up 15% last week. Their earning projections are very high, if it misses the next few quarters that's gonna hurt. They've also cut the dividend recently.
Same industry as LEN and WIRE.
$WIRE probably the most steady.
Had totally forgotten about that stock. Owned it many years ago. I think I sold it at $24. Now $245. Although that was probably 20 years ago.

>>> What Makes AAON (AAON) a Lucrative Investment?


Insider Monkey

by Soumya Eswaran

February 7, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/makes-aaon-aaon-lucrative-investment-112143112.html


Baron Funds, an investment management company, released its “Baron Discovery Fund” fourth quarter 2023 investor letter. A copy of the same can be downloaded here. In 2023, the fund (Institutional Shares) returned 22.58% outperforming the 18.66% return for the Russell 2000 Growth Index. In Q4, the fund returned 12.44% compared to a 12.75% return for the index. Since its inception, investors in the fund have earned an annualized return of 12.42%, resulting in a more than tripled investment. In addition, please check the fund’s top five holdings to know its best picks in 2023.

Baron Discovery Fund featured stocks such as AAAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) in the fourth quarter 2023 investor letter. Headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) is an air conditioning and heating equipment manufacturer. On February 6, 2024, AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) stock closed at $72.07 per share. One-month return of AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) was 0.31%, and its shares gained 40.29% of their value over the last 52 weeks. AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) has a market capitalization of $5.855 billion.

Baron Discovery Fund stated the following regarding AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:

"AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) is a high-quality manufacturer of HVAC equipment based in Tulsa, OK. It is a leader in providing premium, semi-custom HVAC equipment to the non-residential market with products that are more energy efficient, have longer life spans, and overall are better customized than peers to fit customers’ needs. This has driven significant outperformance over the past decade with organic growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit range compared to a low to mid-single-digit range for its peers.

Strong secular growth driven by decarbonization and broader ESG trends/ regulations is leading to greater demand for the types of products AAON specializes in such as energy efficient HVAC equipment that provides better air quality. To satisfy incoming regulations, peers have been forced to update their offerings and raise prices, while AAON today has ready-to-ship products satisfying all regulations. This dynamic is reducing the price premium between AAON’s products and the industry standards from 15% to 20% historically to a high single-digit level today. This price gap reduction is accelerating volume growth and enabling the company to take share. With the acquisition of BasX Solutions, a leader in data center, cleanroom systems, and custom HVAC units in December 2021, AAON expanded its addressable market by around 50% to over $30 billion in segments of the market where its focus on energy efficient units is extremely valuable. BasX’s adjusted cash flow (EBITDA) has roughly doubled over the past two years under AAON’s ownership. Lastly, CEO Gary Fields has undertaken a multi-year reorganization of the company’s management team and invigoration of company culture with a greater focus on selling and pushing the AAON solution from niche to mainstream. A simple illustration of the change brought by Gary is the opening of the exploration center this past April. This is a 28,000 square foot facility with over 10,000 square feet of exhibits and AAON products. We toured this facility at the company’s Analyst Day this past May where AAON units were placed next to competitor solutions. By purchasing and deconstructing competitors solutions, the team clearly highlighted the value of AAON’s superior products. They are more durable and have higher levels of efficiency. The team hoped that they would bring one to two potential customers a week to the center, but the demand has been so strong that one to two customers a day are visiting with a strong conversion from visits to eventual orders.

Going forward, with run-rate revenue at a little over $1 billion in a $30 billion market, there is ample opportunity ahead for AAON to grow and take market share. We expect mid-single-digit price increases across its product set along with mid-single-digit volume growth. The business is about 65% replacement/35% new construction with a mix of end-markets and limited exposure to new office construction. Given the growth opportunity ahead, the company is continuing to invest aggressively but at the same time has taken steps to maximize its physical footprint and, over time, will achieve greater levels of operating leverage. We believe the company will drive gross margins from the low 30% to the mid-high 30% levels with EBITDA margins expanding from the low to high 20% levels over our five year investment horizon. We calculate this combination of above market growth combined with significant margin expansion will allow us to double our investment over the next five years."

AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 20 hedge fund portfolios held AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) at the end of third quarter which was 19 in the previous quarter.

We discussed AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) in another article and shared the list of best growth stocks to buy according to billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q4 2023 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

<<<



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I thought the same thing........

I think Latoria might be an 'Ai Bot', based on the content and writing style. No real person writes like that, with the possible exception of a professional financial writer. Anyway, nice to have another poster on the board, even if she's a computerized 'bot' :o)



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Welcome to the board Latoria, nice posts.

Winmark's impressive performance, both in terms of stock price and dividend payouts, underscores its resilience and potential for growth in the retail sector. The company's focus on franchise-based retail businesses specializing in secondhand goods has proven to be a lucrative model, attracting investors with its consistent returns.

The surge in Winmark's stock price, particularly over the past year, highlights the market's recognition of its value and growth prospects. While its current valuation may seem expensive compared to historical averages, the company's strong financial performance and expansion opportunities justify investor confidence.

The prospect of another special dividend announcement, typically made in October, further adds to Winmark's appeal for income-oriented investors. Additionally, CEO Brett Heffes' optimistic outlook on the company's growth potential, with thousands of open territories for franchises, signals a promising future for Winmark.

The rise of fractional shares trading is certainly an intriguing development, especially in the current market climate where accessibility and flexibility are key. The ability to invest in fractions of shares opens up opportunities for a wider range of investors to participate in the stock market, even with limited funds.

What's particularly fascinating is how this trend has gained momentum alongside the recent market rally. With major players like Fidelity and Schwab joining the fray, fractional shares are becoming increasingly mainstream, reflecting a growing demand for more inclusive investment options.

It's noteworthy to see the significant uptake in fractional trading, with platforms like SoFi reporting that a substantial portion of trades are now conducted in fractional shares. This shift indicates a shift in investor behavior towards smaller, more accessible investments, which could have broader implications for the investment landscape.

Furthermore, the surge in fractional trading during the pandemic, particularly with the arrival of stimulus checks, highlights the role of technology in democratizing investing. Platforms like CashApp have witnessed record-high brokerage volumes, underscoring the appetite among retail investors to engage with the market, even during times of economic uncertainty.