We sold about 3 months ago.

You're to late, inflation just peaked, it's rolling over now. Bottle necks are easing, just listen to any earnings call that had bottle necks 6-12 months ago, everyone who was complaining is now mentioning improvement. Commodities also just peaked along with inflation, if you wanted to hedge or just put on a trade for Alpha, should have bought commodities 15 months ago. Anyone putting on commodities right now is likely entering a pain trade, it's costly to ignore rate of change on the inflation numbers.

I hope so for all of us.

I’m here this one is gonna be a great stock!

Time will tell......

I agree, up is the trend and food has long waves.

All very good points. Every year there are problems and setbacks that were unforeseen. I am wondering about the US cotton crop with all of the rain that has been happening in the South East. I am in no way an ag expert, but with increasing input costs for many commodities, and general world wide population growth, I find it hard not to speculate on increasing commodities prices.

Most of money elsewhere. Will it hit $12 as it did in 2011?

1. Higher energy
2. Drought out west
3. Nut cases run countries world wide

Reasons not to
1. Computerized GPS farming most places since 2011
2. Energy saving equipment better than in 2011
3. Vaccines may slow population growth
4. Plant protein does not waste food growing up like farm animals

Your thought bigone?

Is anyone still here? Many commodities have had a good run the past months. Time to revisit RJA?

Goldman's 10 commodity trade ideas for second half

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3454686-goldmans-10-commodity-trade-ideas-second-half

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is closing its top 10 trade ideas from a few months ago based on misplaced macro risk, and has introduced 10 commodities trades for a second half that it thinks will be based on shorter-focus considerations.

"With macro sources of returns diminishing, we believe that micro stories and relative value opportunities will become the most important source of returns going forward,” the firm says in a new note.

Among metals trades it's pushing: Long gold and short silver; long copper and short zinc; long palladium and short platinum; long LME aluminum and short SHFE aluminum; long Dec. '19 aluminum and short Dec. '20 aluminum; and long 62% vs. 58% iron ore premium.

In agriculture, it's urging to go long the S&P GSCI Agriculture and Livestock Index. And in energy, it recommends being long cal20 WTI-Dubai; shorting Q3 2019 TTF (European gas) spread to Nymex (U.S. gas) prices; and long the Q2 2020/Q2 2021 heating oil crack box spread vs. Brent.

Source: Bloomberg

Midwest Apocalypse: Satellite Data Show "At Least 1 Million Acres Of US Farmland" Devastated By Floods

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-30/midwest-apocalypse-satellite-data-show-least-1-million-acres-us-farmland-devastated

We have never seen anything like this before. According to satellite data that was just released by Reuters, “at least 1 million acres of U.S. farmland” were covered by water for at least seven days this month. That is an agricultural disaster without equal in modern American history, and yet the mainstream media is treating this like it is some sort of second class story. It isn’t. This is the biggest news story of 2019 so far, and people want to know what is going on. A few days ago, I posted a story entitled ‘“As Many As A Million Calves Lost In Nebraska” – Beef Prices In The U.S. To Escalate Dramatically In The Coming Months’, and it has already been shared on social media more than 145,000 times. Farming communities all over the central part of the nation now look like war zones as a result of all this flooding, but the media elites on the east and west coasts don’t want to write about it. And with more flooding on the way for the next two months, this crisis is only going to get worse.

This is the time of year when farmers are gearing up to plant wheat, corn and soybeans, and now a substantial portion of our farmland will not be able to be used at all this year. According to Reuters, at least a million acres of farmland were covered by floodwaters for at least seven days this month, and that “will likely reduce corn, wheat and soy production this year”…

At least 1 million acres (405,000 hectares) of U.S. farmland were flooded after the “bomb cyclone” storm left wide swaths of nine major grain producing states under water this month, satellite data analyzed by Gro Intelligence for Reuters showed.

Farms from the Dakotas to Missouri and beyond have been under water for a week or more, possibly impeding planting and damaging soil. The floods, which came just weeks before planting season starts in the Midwest, will likely reduce corn, wheat and soy production this year.

And with “as many as a million calves” lost to the flooding, a lot less food than anticipated is going to be produced in the United States for the foreseeable future.

Between March 8th and March 21st, almost 1.1 million acres of cropland and over 84,000 acres of pastureland were covered by water for at least a week. With more rain on the way, it is essentially going to be impossible for most of those acres to be usable this year.

In Iowa, 474,271 acres were covered by floodwaters for at least seven days in March, and Iowa farmers are facing some very tough deadlines. Corn must be planted by May 31st and soybeans must be planted by June 15th in order to qualify for flood insurance. For most Iowa farms that were covered by floodwaters, that is going to be impossible.

Overall, the recent flooding caused “at least $3 billion” in economic damage according to authorities, but many believe that the final number will be far higher.

Thousands upon thousands of farms have been completely destroyed, and thousands upon thousands of farmers will not plant any crops at all this year.

In addition to the vast agricultural devastation that we have witnessed, thousands upon thousands of homes have been destroyed as well, and now the National Ground Water Association is warning that “the safety of more than a million private water wells” could be compromised…

Record flooding in the Midwest is now threatening the safety of more than a million private water wells. The National Ground Water Association estimates that people living in more than 300 counties across 10 states have their groundwater threatened from bacterial and industrial contamination carried by flood waters.

If you live in the middle of the country and there is a chance that your well may have been compromised, please don’t take any unnecessary chances. Contaminated water can be really, really bad news.

Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. According to the NOAA, we are entering an “unprecedented flood season” that could potentially “impact an even bigger area of cropland”…

Spring floods could yet impact an even bigger area of cropland. The U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned of what could be an “unprecedented flood season” as it forecasts heavy spring rains. Rivers may swell further as a deep snow pack in northern growing areas melts.

In my previous article entitled ‘”200 Million People At Risk: National Weather Service Warns Apocalyptic Midwest Floods Are “A Preview Of What We Expect Throughout The Rest Of The Spring”’, I included a map from the NOAA which shows which areas of the central part of the country are projected to receive unusually high levels of rainfall over the next few months.

Unfortunately, there is a tremendous amount of overlap with areas that have already been devastated by flooding.

On Friday and Saturday, there will be “more heavy rains” in the Midwest, and Nebraska is in “the direct path” of the center of the storm…

From the Central Plains to the Midwest, it has been a disastrous spring for river flooding. A weather system slated to bring more heavy rains Friday into Saturday could aggravate the situation along and near the Missouri and Mississippi rivers.

It’s a one-two punch that combines additional rainwater with fresh runoff from snowmelt. Perhaps worst off is Nebraska, in the direct path of Friday’s quick burst of moisture. Barely a week has passed since Gov. Pete Ricketts estimated the cost of ongoing flooding in that state at more than $1 billion.

This is it. America is being hammered by one storm after another, and I very much encourage you to get prepared for a very rough ride ahead.

There is going to be a lot more flooding. Prices for beef, dairy, wheat, corn and soy products are going to rise significantly, and just when you think they are way too high they are going to keep on rising.

This is already the worst agricultural disaster in modern American history, and federal authorities are telling us that we should expect things to continue to get worse for at least two more months.

Perhaps the mainstream media will eventually decide to take this story seriously, but until they do those of us in the alternative media will do our best to keep you updated.

The Pessimist's Guide To 2019, Fire Floods and Famine

Rather complicated to cut and paste. I would not bet on this happening unless I got 10 to 1 odds, lol.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/pessimists-guide-to-2019/

Dry weather hampers E.U. crop outlook

Chart at the bottom

2nd link first>>>
http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=1#month=3#year=2018


Should help US exports, as well US food commodities fell artificially from Trump's tariff talk, total world production and consumption adjust automatically to such tariffs, in short order.

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2018/08/Dry_weather_hampers_EU_crop_ou.aspx?ID={ABCEBC52-9F67-4651-89CA-C324CD6439D0}

ONDON, ENGLAND — Dry conditions since April in much of the European Union has reduced grain yields in many of the 28 Member States, especially in spring crops, according to an Aug. 1 Global Agricultural Information Network report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“With mixed fortunes in the fall and over winter, weather has once again proved the biggest challenge for the E.U.-28 grains crop,” the USDA said. “Overall, prospects for yields are down on previous expectations and the view on quality is mixed.”

The total 2018-19 E.U.-28 grain crop is currently forecast to reach 296.5 million tonnes, below expectations earlier in the year and nearly 31 million tonnes lower than the record set in 2014-15, the report said.

“While rain has now arrived in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece, it is too late for most crops, with the exception of corn, and is causing disruption to the harvest,” the USDA said. “With it remaining dry in France and the U.K., the quality outlook in these two countries remains more uncertain but yields are certainly down on previous expectations.

“Spain, once again, appears to be the exception to the rule, having experienced a much wetter growing season than normal, delaying harvest but generally positive for crop development and production.”

Total supply of grain in the E.U.-28 in 2018-19 is forecast at 346.3 million tonnes, down 7.3 million tonnes year on year, while total grain consumption for the region is put at nearly 288 million tonnes, including 115 million for food, seed and industrial use.

“Increased food use of wheat in France in 2017-18 was a factor in the ongoing rise but it is increasing use of corn in the industrial sector in Austria, Spain and Hungary that has been a consistent driver and is forecast to continue to be a significant factor in 2018-19,” the USDA said.

The agency noted a significant expansion in Hungary’s corn processing capacity in recent years, including the construction of a new processing plant in October 201.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40028685756

$RJA -European Drought Threatens Harvests From Sweden to the Czech Republic

World drought Monitor first>>>
http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=1#month=3#year=2018

https://www.ecowatch.com/european-drought-threatens-harvests-2589844659.html

For farmers in central and northern Europe, this summer's unusually high temperatures aren't just uncomfortable, they are putting their harvests at risk, The Guardian reported Friday.

The drought, caused by high temperatures and low rainfall since May 2018, is the worst in recent memory for the region, according to The Guardian.

"Older families around me are comparing this to 1976," 25-year-old Dutch farmer Iris Bouwers told The Guardian. "My dad can't remember any drought like this."

Bouwers said her family stood to lose €100,000, as their potato crop is likely to fall by 30 percent, and their savings won't cover the loss because of an investment made in a pig stable.

They aren't the only ones. The German Association of the Fruit, Vegetable, and Potato Processing Industry announced Tuesday they expected to see a smaller, less quality potato crop that would lead to a 25 percent revenue loss in the agricultural and potato processing sectors, Earther reported.

EU grain growers are also expecting their smallest harvest in six years, Bloomberg reported. Many German farmers could go bankrupt if their crops fail again, and, for some German farmers, things are so bad that they are destroying crops instead of attempting to harvest them.

"It looks like a desert out there," German dairy and grain farmer Thomas Gaebert told Bloomberg of his land.

The Swedish Farmers Association estimated that if rain doesn't fall soon, its members could lose eight billion Swedish kronor and many could go bankrupt.

"This is really serious," Swedish Farmers Association co-chair Lennart Nilsson told The Guardian. "Most of south-west Sweden hasn't had rain since the first days of May. A very early harvest has started but yields seem to be the lowest for 25 years—50% lower, or more in some cases – and it is causing severe losses."

Overall, in its July Analytical Report, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) found there was a "high deficit in soil moisture" in Scandinavia, Latvia, The Netherlands, northern Germany, Scotland and most of Ireland and an "even stronger deficit" complete with "vegetation stress" in western Belarus, western Poland and parts of the Czech Republic.

But once this year passes, climate change predictions for the region suggest that farmers could see many more like it.

A spokesperson for the EU's Joint Research Center, which runs the EDO, told The Guardian that farmers should prepare by moving towards "diversification or change of crop types and varieties, but also a more efficient use of water."

But, for the time being, European Commission relief for farmers facing the current crisis included suspending environmental obligations intended to help halt climate change, The Guardian reported.

SPEI Global Drought Monitor

http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=1#month=3#year=2018

$RJA USDA forecasts smallest U.S. winter wheat crop in 16 years. Also>
USDA predicts lower carryover for corn, wheat and soybeans

This site won't let you post stories, search the site
http://www.world-grain.com/

Record heat has not yet damaged grain crop in Ukraine -forecaster

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-grains-ukraine-weather/record-heat-has-not-yet-damaged-grain-crop-in-ukraine-forecaster-idUSKBN1I40W1

KIEV (Reuters) - Unusually hot and dry weather across almost all Ukrainian regions has not yet damaged grain crops but there is no reason to expect a bumper harvest of early spring grains this year, a senior weather forecaster said on Thursday.

Favorable weather this mild winter and early spring was replaced with excessive heat in April, raising fears in a small crop of spring crops - spring wheat and barley - as farmers had a very limited time frame to complete sowing in the best period.

The agriculture ministry still sees this year’s grain crop at the last year’s level while analysts have already reduced the outlook for barley - Ukraine’s key early spring grain.

UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy has already twice lowered its forecast for the 2018 barley harvest to 7.75 million tonnes as of mid-April from 8.7 million in late March.

“There is no reason to expect a good harvest of early spring crops - barley and spring wheat. Probably there will be a crop at the level of average annual values,” Tetyana Adamenko, a senior official at the state weather forecaster, told Reuters.

“We had one of the most arid Aprils in our history. We expect some weather fronts late this week and next week but they can only mitigate the situation,” she said, adding that drought has already hit some areas in Ukraine’s southern regions.

Snow winter has created significant reserves of moisture in the soil and, Adamenko said, winter cereals and late spring crops were still safe.

Ukraine is likely to harvest around 62 million tonnes of grain this year, UkrAgroConsult said, noting it may increase wheat and maize output, but harvest less barley than a year ago.

The last year’s grain harvest of 61.3 million tonnes included 26.1 million tonnes of wheat, 24.1 million tonnes of maize and 8.3 million tonnes of barley.

Ukraine, the world’s third-largest grain exporter, said the area covered by spring and winter grains would exceed 14 million hectares this year.

Ukrainian farmers have sown 4.4 million hectares of spring grains or 60 percent of the total area as of May 2. The sowing area included 1.4 million hectares of spring barley, 398,000 hectares of peas, 174,000 hectares of oats, 152,000 hectares of spring wheat and 2.27 million hectares of maize.

Russia grain output to fall in 2018-19

MOSCOW, RUSSIA — Russia’s grain production in 2018-19 is forecast to drop by more than 10 million tonnes due to a decline in wheat output, according to an April 26 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Grain production is forecast at 123.7 million tonnes, down from 134 million in 2017-18.

The USDA said the decline in wheat output is “due to decreased sowing area and closer-to-average yield after the 16% spike in 2017. Our wheat production forecast also reflects current estimates for winter kill and slower spring planting campaign than in 2017.”

The agency said growing wheat stocks and commensurate downward pressure on prices in 2017-18 have motivated farmers to decrease wheat acreage in favor of other crops where export demand is strong, such as barley and corn.

Corn is forecast to increase by 20% due to a 10% increase in planting area. As a result, corn output in 2018-19 is forecast to increase to 16.4 million tonnes, the USDA said.

Barley production is forecast to fall by 883,000 tonnes to 19.3 million tonnes despite increase sowing area, the report said. Barley yield is forecast weaker in 2018-19 based on the five-year average after a 23% spike in 2017 due to very good weather conditions.

The USDA said total grain exports in 2018-19 are expected to remain unchanged from the 48.5-million-tonne estimate in 2017-18 “based on historically high carry-in wheat stocks, stable domestic consumption and improved corn supply.”

Wheat exports in 2018-19 are forecast at 36 million tonnes, barley at 4.5 million, corn at 6.8 million and other grains at 1.25 million.

$RJA The world grain report from The INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL was very bullish for RJA today. Most did not get out til afternoon.>>>

https://igc.int/en/downloads/gmrsummary/gmrsumme.pdf

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19538525420

The last two days, the biggest trades by far have been at the ask.

Fukushima and the problems its still causing 7 years later

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsrbuPH2-Ww

'Day zero' water crises: Spain, Morocco, India and Iraq at risk as reservoirs shrink

4 graphs in the link>>>
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/11/day-zero-water-crises-spain-morocco-india-and-iraq-at-risk-as-dams-shrink

World drought map>>>>>

http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=1#month=2#year=2018

U.S. vows to defend farmers against China retaliation

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3340896-u-s-vows-defend-farmers-china-retaliation?uprof=45&dr=1#email_link

NOAA Spring Outlook: Moderate Flood Risk in Heartland, Southwest Drought May Intensif

Highlight " The fraction of the U.S. covered by severe to exceptional drought (categories D2-D4) has grown from 2.9% in mid-November to 16.3% as of March 13,"

Nice maps in the link>>>>>

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/noaa-spring-outlook-moderate-flood-risk-heartland-southwest-drought-may-intensify

Recent Successes and What’s in Store for Organic Industry in 2018

Good summary about organics. My main point here at this board is it is stated that GMO acreage has no changed in the past 3 years, thus if one expects yields going up because of increased usage, it is not happening, if the article is correct. I will admit Mercola is a bit biased against GMO's, but so am I, lol.

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2018/03/11/organic-sector-is-growing.aspx?utm_source=dnl&utm_medium=email&utm_content=art1&utm_campaign=20180311Z1_UCM&et_cid=DM192411&et_rid=239733924

Story at-a-glance
At present, there are 457 million acres of GMO crops growing around the world. The good news is this GMO acreage has remained largely unchanged for the last three years

This lack of growth is undoubtedly a reflection of growing consumer awareness about GMOs and the toxic chemicals that accompany them

In the U.S., the organic food and products sector has grown to $50 billion a year and the certified non-GMO sector is now at $30 billion annually

We now face a new generation of GMOs, which are likely even more dangerous than the first generation of glyphosate-resistant and Bt-producing crops released in 1996

The organic industry is also slowly introducing the next-gen in organics — regenerative organics, also known as biodynamic farming, which has far stricter rules than USDA organics. New grass fed certification rules are also being implemented

Fantastic article Pro-Life. Will post this on many sites. It's been embarrassing for me to won it, til now

Embarrassing Ag Problem
by Tyler Durden Thu, 03/01/2018 - 19:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-01/emarrassing-ag-problem

Campbell Soup targets wheat as priority ingredient

(wheat is 13.61% of RJA)

This site links terribly, search for the story if you choose here>>
https://www.google.com/search?q=Campbell+Soup+targets+wheat+as+priority+ingredient&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS778US778&oq=Campbell+Soup+targets+wheat+as+priority+ingredient&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60l3.2106j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

The Campbell Soup Co. has identified two commitments of interest to the global grains industry as part of its 2018 corporate responsibility report issued on March 1.
First, Campbell Soup said it plans to enroll 70,000 acres of wheat in a fertilizer optimization plan in the United States by the end of 2020.

“With Goldfish crackers, Milano cookies and many other baked goods in our portfolio, Campbell has identified wheat as a priority ingredient to source more sustainably,” the company said.

Campbell Soup said it has partnered with the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Land O’Lakes’ SUSTAIN program to make fertilizer efficiency and soil health “the norm” in U.S. grain production. The company said doing so provides environmental benefits, but also helps improve farmers’ bottom lines.

According to Campbell Soup, the SUSTAIN program provides practical tools, products and practices that are available to farmers through Land O’Lakes’ network of agricultural retailers. SUSTAIN helps train farmers on ways to improve air, water and soil quality, while increasing yields, improving soil health and building resilience to unpredictable climate conditions. Using the power of this network, SUSTAIN hopes to eventually reach thousands of U.S. farmers working millions of acres of crops, tipping the balance in favor of more sustainable growing practices nationwide.

“Campbell is committed to optimizing fertilizer use on 70,000 acres of wheat and is deploying SUSTAIN in our Pepperidge Farm sourcing regions to help achieve this goal,” the company said.

Globally, Campbell Soup said it has just launched an initiative to source 50% (by volume) of plant-based priority ingredients from suppliers engaged in an approved sustainable agriculture program by fiscal 2025, as compared to fiscal 2017.

$RJA Another big volume day for RJA. Just the beginning IMO

Chart>>>
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49560099375

Companion story, if the dollar falls for six more years, great for RJA since food exports become cheaper for foreign countries with a stronger currency>>>

https://www.nadex.com/market-news/2018/02/26/trend-could-point-six-more-years-bearish-dollar

$RJA IGC lowers grains production outlook

This is the same folks who raised estimates on November 28, 2017. Argentina, Brazil and South Africa must have got dryer than they knew then.

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2018/02/IGC_lowers_grains_production_o.aspx?ID=%7BBD634DB6-1AB5-43C6-93E1-673A25EF0A49%7D&cck=1

LONDON, ENGLAND — The International Grains Council (IGC) on Feb. 22 lowered its estimate for total grains production in 2017-18 to 2.094 billion tonnes, down from 2.1 billion tonnes in January and down from 2.14 billion estimated for 2016-17. Total consumption held steady at 2.104 billion tonnes.
The IGC said the decline in production primarily reflected poorer maize output prospects in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.

The IGC estimated world wheat production in 2017-18 at 757 million tonnes, unchanged from January and up from 754 million tonnes estimated in 2016-17. World wheat ending stocks were estimated at 254 million tonnes, unchanged from January and up from 240 million tonnes in 2016-17.

“The projection for wheat points to a tighter market, as a drop in output and solid demand may result in the first reduction in stocks in six seasons,” the IGC said. “Global wheat trade could be a record, including bigger purchases by India and Iran.”

The IGC estimated 2017-18 maize production at 1.048 billion tonnes, down from 1.054 billion tonnes in January and compared with 1.088 billion tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection was flat at 1.068 billion tonnes.

Soybean production for 2017-18 was estimated at 347 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from 349 million tonnes in January, and down from 350 million tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection also was lowered, to 349 million tonnes from 352 million tonnes. The IGC said global trade is expected to total 153 million tonnes, the same as forecast in January.

The 2017-18 world outturn for rice is expected to total 484 million tonnes, unchanged from January. Consumption is expected to increase, to 486 million tonnes from 485 million tonnes.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased 5%, the IGC said.

“The IGC GOI gained by a net 5% since the January GMR, reaching a seven-month peak,” the IGC said. “Apart from rice, which weakened after an earlier sharp rally, all of the components of the index moved higher. Advances were mainly linked to expanding droughts in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains, but with robust export demand also contributing to gains in some countries.”

$RJA 4 Reasons Why Commodities Will Attract Lots Of Interest

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4149152-4-reasons-commodities-will-attract-lots-interest

Summary
Commodities prices impact our lives and our investments.

Reason 1: The dollar is a buy signal.

Reason 2: Inflation is the best friend of the asset class.

Reason 3: Divergence is a potent bullish cocktail.

Reason 4: Demographic trends and economic growth.

Volatility is picking up in markets across all asset classes. At the end of January, the stock market began to move lower as interest rates across the yield curve began to rise. The long bond broke down through an area of technical support and the rise in rates has threatened the bull market in bonds that had been in place for three decades. When rates rise, fixed income securities become more attractive when compared to stocks which had been on a one-way path higher since the last significant correction in the equities market in early 2016.

In markets, capital tends to flow to asset classes that offer the best opportunities for both yield and capital appreciation. Over recent years, stocks have been the place to be, but that could be changing. When it comes to bonds, if rates are rising because the "real" rate of interest is moving higher, these instruments are likely to pull capital away from the stock market. However, if the rise in rates is due to an increase in inflationary pressures in the economy, both stocks and bonds could suffer an outflow of assets. Inflation eats away at the value of money, and it tends to be an economic condition that causes the prices of raw materials to move higher, and in some cases to skyrocket.

Commodities prices impact our lives and our investments
The production of commodities is a local affair as they come from areas of the world where they exist in the crust of the earth or where climate and weather support crop output. Chile is the world's leading producer of copper, while more than half the world's crude oil reserves are located in the Middle East. The U.S. is the largest producer of corn and soybeans, while Brazil is a leader when it comes to sugar, coffee, and orange production. Meanwhile, most people on the earth are consumers of commodities. We use energy to power our daily lives when we fill up our cars with gasoline, a processed product of oil. When we heat or cool our homes, we consume heating oil, natural gas, and electricity, all commodities. The food we eat are commodities whether we are carnivores, vegetarians, or vegans. Our homes are made of construction materials, which are industrial commodities. Think about it, when we turn the faucet on for a drink of water or to take a shower or bath, the water flows through pipes that are often made of copper. There are so many other examples of how the commodities that trade each day on futures exchanges touch our daily existence.

$RJA SPEI Global Drought Monitor. From what I see in other sites, they exaggerate the reds quite a bit, but accurate about the dry areas.

http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=1#month=0#year=2018

$RJA Australia’s wheat crop forecast falls to 20.3 million tonnes(38%)

https://www.producer.com/2017/12/australias-wheat-crop-forecast-falls-20-3-million-tonnes/

SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Australia’s 2017-18 wheat crop forecast has been lowered, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said, after recent storms damaged the crop and following a severe drought earlier in the season that reduced yields.

The world’s fourth largest wheat exporter is forecast to produce 20.3 million tonnes of wheat this year, the agency said, down more than six percent from its September forecast of 21.64 million and 42 percent below last year’s record crop of more than 35 million.

“Favourable seasonal conditions during spring have boosted crop prospects in Western Australia, but unfavourable conditions across New South Wales have adversely affected yield prospects,” ABARES executive director Steve Hatfield-Dodds said in statement.

“Yield prospects have also substantially declined in Queensland over spring.”

Australian farmers have had a tough wheat growing season.

Australia’s past winter, which runs from June to September, was the warmest since records began more than a century ago. It was also among the nation’s 10 driest seasons ever.

However, heavy rains have arrived as the crop is being harvested, causing further concerns and downgrading.

“While harvest is underway in most regions, progress has been slowed by rainfall throughout November with December also forecast to bring more inclement weather than average for this time of year,” he said.

For canola, production is forecast at 2.9 million tonnes, up 5.5 percent from the September forecast but 31 percent lower than last year’s output.

$RJA It looks like blast off day to me,.

https://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49560099375

$RJA Drought monitor is a little bit worse. California and SW in general 10 day forecast still dry.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ca/redding?cm_ven=localwx_10day

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ut/salt-lake-city/84138?cm_ven=localwx_10day

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49560099375

Brazil wheat output to fall in 2017-18

http://www.world-grain.com/

Brazil’s 2017-18 wheat production is forecast at 4.3 million tonnes, down sharply from the previous estimate due to larger-than-expected losses from drought and frost conditions during critical development stages of the crop, according to a Jan. 30 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
If realized, it will be a 36% decline from the country’s 2016-17 wheat output of 6.73 million tonnes, the report said.

Wheat imports for 2017-18 are forecast at an increased level of 8 million tonnes, reflecting the decrease in domestic production.

“Brazil generally imports at least half of its domestic wheat demand, with most imports being duty-free purchases from Mercosul-partner Argentina,” the GAIN report said. “However, in December 2017, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture published a new set of regulations to allow the importation of Russian wheat for the first time. Russia wheat had been banned for phytosanitary reasons, but the new regulation allows imports into Brazil’s northeast region for mills located close to ports (in an effort to limit the spread of any potential disease risk).”

The report said that despite the comparatively higher transportation costs, Russian wheat might be competitive in Brazil due to the large supplies pouring into the international market. It noted that Brazilian government trade statistics don’t yet show any wheat imports from Russia.

Brazil’s 2017-18 wheat exports are lowered slightly to 600,000 tonnes to reflect tighter domestic supplies, the report said.

USA droughts not getting better, worse far west.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

More California fire danger? It is a given that chemicals exist for weather modification. Here in Minnesota last week Sunday I saw the widest "jet trail" I have ever seen. Next day, next day we had the biggest snow of the year here in the Minneapolis area, probably coincidence, but the trail was so prominent I pointed it out to another.

The 2 California fires are very suspicious, we have never seen such heat melting appliances, glass, etc, both late at night. And we got people like Jerry Brown saying "Southern California's fire devastation is 'the new normal," Gov. Brown says, climate change the blame.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gov-jerry-brown-blames-climate-change-for-california-wildfires-as-he-jet-sets-to-paris/article/2643221

I follow weather daily since food commodity stocks are one of my favorite investing areas. It sure looks like the entire state of California is headed for another drought. I use Redding California as my example since the 3 biggest reservoirs are near there.

October rainfall deficit 1.77" normal 2.1"
November rain surplus .75" normal 4.48"
December rain deficit 6.16" normal 6.27"
January rain deficit 1.11" Normal 5.96"
February first 10 days
forecast >>>>>>>>>>>>>2.00" Normal 2.00" ( for 10 days in February)

Total deficit = 10.20" Normal = 20.81" or a deficit of 49.4 inches.
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KRDD/2018/2/1/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

My thoughts, average rainfall from here to the end of May is 12.24". Even with normal rainfall in the coming months Cal will have a deficit of about 30%. Yes, it can change, and rain, but also get dryer. But what if weather can be modified to keep California dry as an example of so called "Global Warming" to get legislation passed.

And remember the 2011-2017 drought, it spread into the plains affecting corn, wheat and soy. Now watch the comiong rains prove me wrong, lol.

" Meanwhile, more people with more money require more food each year."


With Planting Season Coming Many Farmers Are Faced With A Choice

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4140602-planting-season-coming-many-farmers-faced-choice

Summary
Each year is a new adventure in agricultural markets.

Five straight years of bumper crops but the dollar is helping.

The planting decision- The corn-soybean ratio.

What to watch for in the weeks and months ahead.

Right now, look for more bean planting, but that could change.

Those who read my pieces on Seeking Alpha know that a recurring theme in my analysis of commodities markets is how I define the terms cheap and expensive. I believe that the determination of whether a raw material price is under or over values has little to do with its nominal price.

To me, these terms can only be applied to a commodity when one compares the price over a period of history with another raw material that can serve as a substitute for consumers or when a producer has a choice when it comes to output.

History tends to repeat itself in markets, and consumers and producers are economic animals. Shoppers tend to make wise economic decisions choosing products that cost less than alternatives. On the other hand, producers tend to concentrate their efforts on products that offer better returns. In the world of agricultural commodities, we are coming to a critical time of year when farmers will decide which crops will optimize the return on their acreage. In many parts of the United States, agricultural producers are now watching price action like hawks as they have a choice of planting corn or soybeans on their land. The United States is the world’s leading producer of both crops, and it is the price relationship between the grain and oilseed that determines many farmer’s behavior each year.

Each year is a new adventure in agricultural markets
Since 1960 when there were approximately three billion inhabitants of our planet, the population has more than doubled. Most recently 7.449 billion people live on the earth. At the same time, standards of living have improved dramatically. In the world’s most populous nation China, President Xi recently told his party congress last October that the country will expand the size of the middle class over coming decades. Meanwhile, more people with more money require more food each year.

$RJA Another big green bar, 2nd biggest this month on a day most food futures were slightly down. Looks like 2 - 80,000 share trades. Some big money moving in all month. Drought forming, dollar going to fall more, Korea crisis? Just maybe somebody knows something I don't. Volume was like 20,000 shares daily most of last year, 201,000 today and 1,300,000 January 17th.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p12888518579

https://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

Closed above a resistance line of $6.15

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62835065198

Dry, dry, dry, but I doubt big money is buying because of drought unless there is something to climate change and chem trails, and I don't think this is the case, but current dryness is a plus, for now.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ca/redding?cm_ven=localwx_10day

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ne/north-platte?cm_ven=localwx_10day

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ne/omaha/68102?cm_ven=localwx_10day

Drought conditions worsening a bit. But, wih spring coming, that can change in a hurry.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Big Changes Underfoot In Commodities ETF And ETNs

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139563-big-changes-underfoot-commodities-etf-etns?sht=p32hm7&shu=448cd#comment-77464097

Summary
The appetite for commodities products rises with prices.

GLD is the gold standard; USO has been problematic.

Contango and backwardation are issues.

Attention to the forward curve - the Teucrium example.

Lots of changes in the weeks ahead - get educated!

Since reaching bottoms in late 2015 and early 2016, the prices of many commodities have come storming back. Economic growth around the world and optimism about the future have supported the raw material prices, particularly in the industrial sector. Metals, minerals, and the price of crude oil have moved appreciably higher over the past two years, and many remain close to recent highs. Two industrial commodities, palladium and lumber, recently posted new record-highs.

At the same time, favorable weather conditions around the world have kept a lid on the prices of many agricultural commodities, which have not participated in the latest commodities boom. However, with few exceptions over the past two decades, the prices of most agricultural products have exhibited a pattern of higher lows which is a reflection of rising demand for food around the world because of demographics.

With the stock market roaring and posting new highs on almost a daily basis, some investors are looking to diversify their portfolios. After nearly a decade of accommodative monetary policy and with an unprecedented amount of liquidity floating around the system, the fear of increasing inflationary pressures is causing many investors to turn towards the commodities market. Commodities became more mainstream instruments since the introduction of ETF and ETN products that seek to replicate the price action in the volatile and highly leveraged futures markets. ETF and ETNs have brought the opportunity for investors to participate directly in their standard investment accounts as they trade on stock exchanges. At the beginning of 2018, those companies offering these vehicles appear to be refining their offerings to prepare for more activity in the sector as demand for commodity-based investments is on the rise.

$RJA, Nice gain with the falling dollar. Lower dollar makes it cheaper for other countries to buy our food commodities and makes it more costly to import from countries with stronger currencies. Thus higher commodity prices.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=DX

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49560099375

Monopolies lead to higher prices, same as Obamacare>>>>>>>>

ADM pursues big ag merger with grain trader Bunge: source

Charts at the bottom, bot BG and ADM went up Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bunge-m-a-archer-daniels/adm-pursues-big-ag-merger-with-grain-trader-bunge-source-idUSKBN1F82N4

CHICAGO/CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - Top U.S. grain merchant Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM.N) has proposed a takeover of Bunge Ltd (BG.N), according to a person familiar with the approach, which could set up a bidding war with Swiss-based rival Glencore Plc (GLEN.L).

Large grain traders that make money by buying, selling, storing and shipping crops have struggled in recent years with global oversupplies. Thin margins have squeezed core commodity trading operations, including those of ADM, Bunge, Cargill Inc [CARG.UL] and Louis Dreyfus Co [AKIRAU.UL], which together are known as the “ABCDs” and dominate the industry.

Consolidation is seen as one remedy. Glencore last year sought a tie-up with Bunge in what was viewed as a start of a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the industry.

Bunge, which rebuffed an acquisition offer from Glencore last year, might not follow up on ADM’s proposal, the source said, requesting anonymity because the approach is confidential. A standstill agreement prevents Glencore from making a new offer until next month, and Bunge is keeping its options open for now, the source added.

White Plains, New York-based Bunge operates in more than 40 countries and is Brazil’s largest exporter of agricultural products, while Chicago-based ADM says it has customers in 160 countries.

Bunge, which has a market capitalization of $9.79 billion, closed up 11.4 percent at $77.56 on Friday. ADM has a market cap of $22.64 billion.

ADM said it does not comment on “rumors or speculation,” while Bunge did not respond to requests for comment. Glencore was not immediately available for comment. The Wall Street Journal first reported on ADM’s interest in Bunge.

STRATEGY SHIFT?
Grain companies in recent years have expanded into higher-margin sectors, such as food ingredients and aquaculture, to offset weak results and wild swings in their traditional business of handling crops.

In 2014, ADM bought natural ingredient company Wild Flavors for about $3 billion in its biggest deal ever. The company has also expanded into handling healthy ingredients such as fruits, nuts and “ancient grains.”

“News of the ADM bid is a bit surprising given that ADM had been indicating the company’s strategic direction was more towards value-added rather the traditional commodities,” said Stephens Inc analyst Farha Aslam.

ADM is the most U.S.-focused of the major grain companies and a takeover would help it grow in South America, where Bunge is a major agricultural force.

ADM, which dates back to 1902, has tried to expand its international operations, in part to take advantage of growing demand from China. In 2013, Australia rejected its attempted $2.55 billion takeover of Sydney-based grain handler GrainCorp Ltd (GNC.AX) on concerns it could reduce competition.

Bunge was founded in Amsterdam 200 years ago. It moved its headquarters to South America as its operations grew in the region and relocated to New York ahead of an initial public offering in 2001.

HURDLES LOOM
Aslam estimated that fair value for Bunge in a takeover would be $90 to $95 per share, but Morningstar said the price could exceed $100.

Any tie-up would probably face stiff scrutiny from regulators and opposition from farmers who fear handing more market control to ADM could hurt wheat, corn and soybean prices.

The biggest overlap between ADM and Bunge in the United States is in grain origination and oilseeds processing, Aslam said. The companies would probably need to divest facilities in North America and also possibly in Europe, she added.

Aslam raised the possibility that ADM and Glencore could partner in a bid for Bunge to split up its operations.

“ADM would take the more value-added downstream businesses, and Glencore would own the more ag commodity businesses,” she said.

FARMERS’ WORRIES

An ADM-Bunge merger would also face opposition from farmer groups in key agricultural markets, including the United States, European Union, China, India and Brazil, said Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.

The companies’ relatively late move into the big-agriculture merger game, behind DowDuPont (DWDP.N), Nutrien Ltd (NTR.TO) and others, would make gaining regulators’ approval even tougher, Gordon said.

“When you’re the first one, there’s still more competition,” he said. “Once they’ve let a few through, they may have second thoughts.”

Grain farmers need five or six active buyers to get fair prices for their goods, but there are already only a handful, said Peter Carstensen, who teaches law at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

“This is the kind of transaction that will screw farmers,” he said.

Illinois farmer Dan Henebry, who delivers corn and soybeans to ADM’s North American headquarters in Decatur, Illinois, said he was worried a takeover of Bunge could lead grain handlers to pay farmers less for their crops.

“We’ve had so many mergers,” Henebry said. “Less competition is not good.”

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ADM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79113050913

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66919932470

Yep, that was a months worth of volume in one day and way above yesterday too. If Horseman Global, the worlds most bearish hedge fund is right, accelerating decline in the dollar and inflation.

As it is, why is RJA lower than 1 year ago when gasoline is 12% higher than last year and farming is somewhat energy intensive as well as shipping to the mills. Plus the dollar is already 10% lower than last year. A lower dollar makes it cheaper for countries with stronger currencies to buy our grains, etc.
I feel RJA is manipulated down. I have no way of checking this out on RJA, but stocks funds at the bottom of bear markets can be undervalued buy 5% or more. At the top's, overvalued. I suspect RJA is undervalued compared to the value of it's holdings. AND prices for the food commodities are reported to be at or below cost for farmers as well. The new US Drought Monitor looks drier than the one you post of last weeks, that you posted a few days ago at Water.

Horseman Global Hedge Fund story>>>
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/worlds-most-bearish-hedge-fund-has-stunning-theory-what-happens-next-dollar

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=RB

The spike here in volume 2 days ago indicates a move upcoming... looking into calls this morning...

Dryness this time of the year does not mean too much, little precip in most states in January, but..........

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

$RJA Huge volume, nice gain, so far.

Dollar falling makes it cheaper to export our food to countries with a stronger currency. Second,gasoline is 12% higher than a year ago, farming is energy intensive.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49560099375

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=RB

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=DX

$RJA - Grains: New Year = New Adventure

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4135648-grains-new-year-new-adventure?auth_param=1dl5n4:1d56jpm:12671f3eb9ef88a40ca5ea2d4027c2b4&dr=1&uprof=45&utoken=33e800b1fbf919a2efb9f584a604740d703c47cc

Snippets:

The fifth year of bumper crops.

The world depends on ever-increasing production.

Demographic trends show up in long-term charts.

Mother Nature will dictate prices.

ETFs that replicate action in grain futures.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Hecht Commodity Report.

Booming Indian food service sector to grow by $30b over five years
20-Dec-2017 By RJ Whitehead

Snippet:
India’s food service industry will increase in value to Rs5.5tr (US$84.5b) in the next five years, representing an annual growth rate of 10%.

https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2017/12/20/Booming-Indian-food-service-sector-to-grow-by-30b-over-five-years