Current AIM-CASH weekly values



Large- and mega-cap stocks : 56.8%.


Mid-cap stocks : 60.3%.


Small-cap stocks : 36.9%.


These are all slight increases from last week’s values.

(Links to Clive’s original AIM-CASH message and spreadsheet and a description of what I’ve modified are in post # 47330.)



With kind regards,
MakeItJake

So here's an odd thing about Value Line. JDerb, you probably know I follow your weekly reporting of the VWave pretty closely ; I also check Value Line. I happened to notice this morning that below this week's 3-5 year MAP figure the "Market Low" reference point they show is dated 3-23-20 and given as 145%.

According to your posts, that's not even close.

As I said I follow your weekly updates, so I know how careful you are. I went back through my own data looking for instances of 145%, and it looks like the last time that value was touched was in 2009. Best I can tell they started out 2020 estimating 45% and stayed with that until the end of February, then bumped it up to 50, then 55, then 65 by end of March.

Don't know what to make of this except that it's weird...

With kind regards,
-- MakeItJaie

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 30th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 55% (Up 3 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 37% (Up 2 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 49% (Up 1 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 33% (Up 1 from previous week)
__________________________

Oscillator: 1.97 (Up 1.25 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

A welcome sale in an ETF that's been dormant for a while...........

https://schrts.co/IwpSbUZP

My international portfolio made up of "style" type ETFs has done well in the previous 12 months. It's nice to have something to harvest.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

You have an interesting investment strategy. Thanks for sharing.

Regarding Bitcoin, I also have no desire to invest in Bitcoin directly and have to deal with hot/cold wallets, risk of loss or theft of the hardware, etc. But I would invest in the Bitcoin ETFs that invest directly in Bitcoin or in Bitcoin futures like the BITX 2x ETF in my testing. Either of those I expect would be allowable in tax-deferred accounts in the UK, as you are not investing directly in the cryptocurrency yourself. It's not the crypto itself I want, but the volatility of the underlying fund to drive the AIM investment. I did look at some of the other crypto choices, but didn't see a consistent pattern of volatility, and none have the popularity and acceptance of Bitcoin, so I chose only to focus on Bitcoin.

Hi JoeForkeyBolo

I pretty much exclusively hold leverage nowadays, but de-scale that down to non-leveraged equivalent levels, half as much in a 2x, third in 3x ...etc.

Same/similar risk/reward characteristic but where there's more freed up for other things, i.e. work the other half, two-thirds, whatever to add value/rewards.

For my own purposes 2x can be adequate enough, 50% freed up (other half in the 2x). At 3x (or more) and 66% freed up (or more), the differences in benefits/rewards arising from the freed up capital start to become less significant. For instance if freed-up makes a surplus (additional) 4% the 2x stock and 50% freed up benefit adds 2% additional to the overall total portfolio reward, if a third in 3x, 66% freed-up x 4% made = 2.6% overall total portfolio additional reward (0.66% difference is into the realm of 'just noise').

Fundamentally you might say I work the 'cash' (freed up) side, striving for that to achieve a higher return than what the leverage stock fund pays in carry of carry (interest paid for the leveraged fund to borrow in order to buy (leverage) exposure - typically the ongoing overnight rate).

Bitcoin had some appeal initially as now that's more mainstream it seems to behave similar to a 5x leveraged tech stock type holding, so relatively lightly weighted and a big chunk of freed-up capital. However the trading costs and tax liabilities make it much less appropriate for us here in the UK compared to holding the likes of leveraged stock alternatives, that unlike bitcoin can be held in tax exempt accounts. Let alone the other risks bitcoin involves (loss, theft, regulation etc.). Some however still see bitcoin as part of there is a alternative to TINA, such as a combination of bitcoin, gold, and a mixed bunch of other diversified currencies/assets (so some USD still included as part of that).

Clive

Hi MakeItJake

I seem to recall a extremities test resulted in a condition that warranted adding a 'trap' for that, or it might have been a capture to prevent a negative cash situation ??? Haven't looked but suspect it would be fine without that test/limit (as you may tell from my infrequency of visits and hence apology for a slow/delayed reply, I don't visit IH that often nowadays, more so given that the USD and US stocks are increasingly no longer being seen as the safe go-to choice. TINA is dying - and more a case of suicide (SWIFT/sanctions)).

Current AIM-CASH weekly values all decreased from the previous week.



Large- and mega-cap stocks : 56.7%. Percent rank : 90.7


Mid-cap stocks : 60.1%. Percent rank : 67.3


Small-cap stocks : 36.6%. Percent rank : 40.6


(Links to Clive’s original AIM-CASH message and spreadsheet and a description of what I’ve modified are in post # 47330.)

Changes this week : I’ve condensed the main tables and going forward I will be omitting the graphs, in the interest of time.

With kind regards,
MakeItJake

Good morning JD and Thank You for keeping us up-to-date,

The v-Wave uptick and oscillator are moving in a similar fashion to the SignalPoint MRI again this week.

(Diversified Portf Cash = 32% for the 3-5 Year projection)

SignalPoint's MRI also moved upward in risk this week to 27% suggested cash (up 1 pt) and their MRI Oscillator is again +5 showing stronger upward risk pressure.


Both are reacting to the rapid turn-around in stock fortunes we've seen from the market lows. Different measures, similar results. Looking back to the 2022 swoon, there's visual "dead cat bounce" in both indicators (more so with the v-Wave). Are we being set up for a repeat performance? So far, market risk has only moved a small amount above the Median values in both measures. My guess is it will depend upon how high this cat bounces.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 23rd
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 52% (Up 15 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 35% (Up 10 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 48% (Up 2 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 32% (Up 1 from previous week)
__________________________

Oscillator: .72 (Up 1.34 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

Thought as much.
Thanks Tom!

Hi trade15.
SI was the previous home for this board. Many thousands of posts, both there and here!
We go back a looooong way! ☺️
As for Mr Lichello's infomercial video, the question has come up before, but no real results.
My late father-in-law actually purchased the program off that infomercial which included a huge163 page, hand typed 'booklet' along with cassettes which basically parroted the infomercial. I have a copy of the booklet (pic below), but not the cassettes.

BTW: He never had a website because all of this occurred before the internet existed!

Yes, Portfolio Backtester website is https://testfol.io

I actually signed up for a trial membership at Portfolio Visualizer and updated all of the ETF parameters, simply because it's presented in an easier format and the two sites use different means to measure volatility, as the numbers are different for an ETF over the same period. So I will stick with Std Dev for the measure of volatility as I've done so far.

A couple of the ETFs have historical drawdowns exceeding 90%. This is significantly higher than the 10-year maximum drawdown and was the result of the 2008-2009 financial meltdown resulting from the housing sub-prime lending scandal.

In ETFs impacted so severely by this event, I may opt to use the 10-year maximum drawdown instead. If the drawdown strategy assumes a drawdown >90%, this results in much higher increments to Buy SAFE following each purchase. If such an event does recur that tanks the market so quickly, the strategy would be to halt all additional buying until the market stabilizes, and perhaps resume buying at that point. If cash is depleted then it will be near the bottom. In the meantime I don't unnecessarily hamstring the AIM algorithm with larger increments of Buy SAFE than needed and overly restrict buying on the downtrends.

Hi JFB -- is that testfol.io ? A quick search didn't return results having the URL "portfoliobacktester" dot-com, dot-io, etc., so I was curious.

With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

I just discovered a minor issue with some of the parameters of my leveraged ETF backtesting and wanted to share with the group.

I have been using Portfolio Visualizer to determine the volatility (standard deviation) and risk (maximum drawdown) parameters for each ETF tested. These parameters impact the AIM SAFE and minimum transaction settings I use, as well as the drawdown curve strategy to preserve cash on major drawdowns. I thought Portfolio Visualizer backtested to 1985, but this is only for paid accounts. The free account I was using only looks back 10 years to determine these parameters.

However, another site I've used and others have recommended is Portfolio Backtester, which backtests as far back as desired. Because of this discrepancy, I will be adjusting all volatility and drawdown parameters and you may notice these values changing on the next backtest update. It won't affect the testing already done, but may impact the strategy going forward, and the updated parameters will be used for all new backtesting done. I am currently adding a few additional 2x ETFs to complement the 3x ETFs in some indexes or sectors where 2x was not represented.

If you're using the Portfolio Visualizer site as a free user, just be aware of the limitations of the analysis. You might want to visit Portfolio Backtester instead.

Wow! That was quite the Monday today!

I had quite a few 4% and 5% upticks on my screen by day's end.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

v-Wave and MRI Risk Histograms...............................


The v-Wave is now a point above its 3-5 Year Median value, moving upward in risk profile rather quickly. It suggests 31% Cash Reserve for diversified portfolios overall.


SignalPoint's Market Risk Indicator (MRI) moved upward this week and back to its Median value. The MRI suggests 26% Cash Reserve for longer term diversified portfolios overall.

So, while these independent evaluations of market risk react at slightly different rates, they both evaluate market risk in a similar fashion and to nearly the same levels. With the amount of Business Media noise and worry, these two indicators seem to be able to filter the background to a whisper. In both cases there is significantly less market risk now than at the start of the New Year.

AIM High and Keep Some Powder Dry,
OAG Tom

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Small-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Mid-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Large-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values – summary

S&P 500 : 57.7% – A proxy for large- and mega-cap stocks
Percent rank : 92.1

S&P 400 : 61.0% – A proxy for mid-cap stocks
Percent rank : 74.3

Russell 2000 : 37.5% – A proxy for small-cap stocks
Percent rank : 43.8

These all represent decreases from the previous week’s values.

The tables in the following posts summarize the 60 weeks in which the AIM-CASH values were at or nearest to these levels, looking back over historical data from 1947 to 2024 (for the S&P 500), from 1981 to 2024 (for the S&P 400), or from 1987 to 2024 (for the Russell 2000).

(Links to Clive’s original AIM-CASH message and spreadsheet and a description of what I’ve modified are in post # 47330.)



With kind regards,
MakeItJake

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 16th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 37% (Up 5 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 25% (Up 3 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 46% (Up 1 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 31% (Up 1 from previous week)
__________________________

Oscillator: -.62 (Up 1.44 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

Question for Clive regarding the AIM-SP500-real-price-since-1871 spreadsheet

Hi Clive - I was going back over your spreadsheet. In the version that set a toggle for allowing cash to fall below zero, I found something puzzling in the column that calculates New Cash $$$.

The formula includes an if-test which checks whether the starting cash minus the dollar value to buy or sell is less than 9. I couldn't seem to figure out what significance 9 has, and I began to wonder whether it could be a typo for 0.

If you happen to see this, can I ask you to take a look and clarify the reasoning for that ... ?

Many thanks, either way.



With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

There are a number of 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs I considered as part of my backtesting, but ultimately chose not to test those as I wouldn't be using them in my AIM investing. I'd rather invest in a leveraged index or sector ETF because the investment isn't tied up in the destiny of a single company. But for those who do use AIM for the single stock leveraged ETFs, I would expect the increased volatility to outperform AIM investing directly in the single stocks.

However, QQQU (Direxion Daily Magnificent 7 Bull 2X Shares) is one that does interest me and is part of my backtesting, covering Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla. Even though it is only a bit over 1 year old, as of 3/31/25 the backtest had AIM return of 32% vs Buy/Hold return of 24%. I will continue to update results of backtesting QQQU on a regular basis.

Which single stock 2X leveraged ETFs interest you?

Is anyone using the new single stock 2X leveraged ETFs to AIM ?

Any thoughts so far ?

With Bitcoin up I placed a trade to sell some OBTC.

I hope I get the sale before Bitcoin pulls back again.

Toofuzzy

Hi Tom
I brought the warehouse crew in for their one day of monthly work today.

Bought and added 7% more URTY after a 33% addition last month. I am surprised I will still have a residual buy unless it is up next month.

Sold shares of AM, about 20% of shares. I manage this by selling $2,000 at $12,000 and buying $2,000 at $8,000 value. Since I started I have only had sales.

I also own IBIT and OBTC and am looking at selling 1/4 to 1/3 of the combined value by selling shares of OBTC.

Toofuzzy

Good morning JD, Re: v-Wave and MRI for this week................................





The v-Wave looks to be a bit more "reactive" than the MRI. The MRI remained steady this week at 25% suggested cash (one point below its Median) where the v-Wave rose to just above its median at 30%.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Small-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Mid-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Large-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values – summary

All three values decreased from the previous week's values.

Large- and mega-cap stocks : 58.0% Percent rank : 92.7

Mid-cap stocks : 61.5% Percent rank : 78.1

Small-cap stocks : 37.9% Percent rank : 45.1

The tables in the following posts summarize the 60 weeks in which the AIM-CASH values were at or nearest to these levels, looking back over historical data from 1947 to 2024 (for the S&P 500), from 1981 to 2024 (for the S&P 400), or from 1987 to 2024 (for the Russell 2000).

(Links to Clive’s original AIM-CASH message and spreadsheet and a description of what I’ve modified are in post # 47330.)



With kind regards,
MakeItJake

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 9th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 32% (Up 22 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 22% (Up 15 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 45% (Up 3 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 30% (Up 2 from previous week)
__________________________

Oscillator: -2.06 (Up 2.97 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

Some interesting things about this month's update.............................

International ETF portfolio:
- Up 6.5%, Cash up 49.6%; Year over Year
- Up 59.9% from Covid Low
-----------------------------------------------------------
US Sector ETF Composite portfolio:
- Up 3.6%, Cash up 12.2%; Year over Year
- Up 88% from Covid Low
-----------------------------------------------------------
Simple Contrib. IRA :
- Up 5.4%, Cash DOWN 38.3%; Year over Year
- Down 5.1%, Cash DOWN 50.3%; Year over Year

The nature of the IRA being invested in Vanguard's Growth ETF, VUG, makes it more volatile than some of my other portfolios. That's been driving AIM to accumulate shares of VUG rapidly in the last month or so.

The U.S. ETF portfolio and the International both have done well from the Covid lows with the US out pacing Intl. But, over the previous 12 months International built up a nice cash cushion. Both are still positioned to survive and thrive going forward.

Best wishes,
OAG

Re: My AIM portfolios through April:

Former Twinvest contributory IRA converted 14 months ago to AIM

(12% Cash Reserve)


10 Common Stock Portfolio

(20% Cash Reserve)

U. S. Sector Composite ETF portfolio (each sector is its own AIM engine)

(16% Cash Reserve)

Composite International ETF Portfolio

(26% Cash Reserve)

End of Month recovery helped ease the pain of the early drops in AIM accounts' under management. Cash held up reasonably well so far.

Best regards,
OAG Tom

The view of Market Risk shifted to a place a little less 'breathless' with last week's trading. If Al Roker gave us the Market Risk Report instead of AM Weather on NBC, how would he present it? Would he report "26 Million Investors could be affected by growing concerns!!!" This week's view with the v-Wave and the SignalPoint MRI show the storm clouds thinning and blue skies reappearing. It's a welcome break in the investment weather.

Both the MRI and the v-Wave dropped in risk profile this week. The MRI is down another point to 25% suggested reserve cash with the v-Wave at 28%. Both are below their median values now. Looking at these histograms we see that it's been over a year since they were as favorable.




This rapid decline in measured market risk since the year's start hasn't been without some discomfort. If this were one's last day of work before retiring, it might be stressful. The broad sweep of share price discounts across so many investment classes left very little choice as safe havens. As mentioned in recent weeks, Gold and other precious metals along with the companies producing them have taken up 25% of Value LIne's "Best Performers - Latest 13 Weeks" list again this week. That's 10 of the top 40 stocks in Value LIne's 1700 stock universe! It's too bad data on Pawn Shops isn't available! I imagine some are doing big business these days. So, while gold was appreciating, reserved cash was earning some interest as a haven and portfolio insurance. Will we get to deploy more of the cash held in reserve during this market cycle? At this point my own accounts have barely tapped the Cash Register even though buy target prices are far closer than they were at the start of 2025.

Value LIne dropped Bank of America (BAC, yield 2.6%) from their "Above Average Dividend model this week. It's being replaced with Amgen (AMGN, 3.2% yield). See Value LIne's "Selection and Opinion" section for the full story. No changes were made in their Long Term Price Appreciation model this week.

Best wishes,
Tom Veale

Bank of America
https://schrts.co/shtEsmui

Amgen
https://schrts.co/xujnmutI

Hi T15,
There had been the original TV ad for AIM on Youtube for a long time, but it's no longer there.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Small-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Mid-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values -- Large-cap











With kind regards,
-- MakeItJake

Current AIM-CASH weekly values – summary

Large- and mega-cap stocks : 59.0%
This is unchanged from last week’s value. Percent rank : 94.6

Mid-cap stocks : 62.2%
This is a decrease from last week’s value. Percent rank : 82.6

Small-cap stocks : 38.6%
This is a decrease from last week’s value. Percent rank : 47.1

The tables in the following posts summarize the 60 weeks in which the AIM-CASH values were at or nearest to these levels, looking back over historical data from 1947 to 2024 (for the S&P 500), from 1981 to 2024 (for the S&P 400), or from 1987 to 2024 (for the Russell 2000).

(Links to Clive’s original AIM-CASH message and spreadsheet and a description of what I’ve modified are in post # 47330.)



With kind regards,
MakeItJake

On Silicon Investor there's an AIM forum were the infomercial was mentioned being available as a YouTube video. The link provided directs to YouTube but shows the video is no longer available. I tried to find mention of a website for Robert Lichello but it looks like he never had one.
Trade15

I asked the Grok3 AI if the informercial exists online. Here is the response. 😎

I couldn’t find the original Robert Lichello AIM infomercial video online based on the available information. There’s a mention on the InvestorsHub A I M Users Bulletin Board where a user, Trade15, asked if such a video exists, but no clear confirmation or link to the infomercial was provided in the discussion. A 1985 video of Robert Lichello discussing the AIM method is referenced on JJJ Investing’s website, but it’s not explicitly described as the infomercial, and no direct link to the video is given.

Is there a video of the original infomercial for Robert Lichello system located somewhere ?
Thanks
Trade15

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 2nd
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 10% (Down 10 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 7% (Down 6 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 42% (Down 1 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 28% (Down 1 from previous week)
__________________________

Oscillator: -5.03 (Down 1.00 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

Yes it was Orcroft not Don Carlson. We had lots of discussion of whether to delay buys until some indicator told us the downslide is over. It's controversial because you end up missing buying on dips and also can end up buying at elevated prices while the stock price continues to tumble.

Thanks A1979,
I'm always pleased with how much ground we've covered here on the AIM board over the years. I appreciate you digging into this topic. As a group, the different backgrounds and experiences in investing and business have been of benefit to the group. When I look back the years we've maintained the AIM board I have to smile at our overall success.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom

delay all AIM trades until a 13 day moving average crosses a 30 day moving average.

Orcroft did quite a bit of posting on MACD crossovers in 2017/2018. I bookmarked a few in case anyone wants to look back.

Stock Selection and Timing
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128072330

Back to the future
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140700926

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140728630

Hi Steve, Re: vertical dash marks..................

Yes, I believe they all are vealies. They're interspersed with sales, so probably all of them. I'd have to check the trade history to be certain.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Hiya Toof.
delay all AIM trades until a 13 day moving average crosses a 30 day moving average.

Wasn't me. I've never done any crossover analysis.
I have used W%-R however. But not recently.