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I believe the biggest risk may be a melt up in the markets.
Silver Resistance Fib at 33.05---finally the B/O ???
Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivot--5725----R1--5738----R2--5754-----S1--5709----S2--5696-----SPY--Piovot--570----R1--571----R2--573-----S1-568----S2--567 !
Endless pumping seems relentless. Boring and annoying too.
$NYMO MACD crossed negative for those that celebrate.
U.S. Economic Data Summary
Core Economic Indicators
Core PCE (July): +0.2%, inflation steady. (Neutral) (Low)
Core Inflation Rate (July): +0.2%, stable. (Neutral) (Low)
Inflation YoY (July): +2.9%, moderating. (Bull) (Low)
PPI (July): +0.1%, minor inflation pressure. (Neutral) (Low)
Labor Market Data
Initial Jobless Claims (Sept): 219K, inflationary pressures may persist. (Bear) (Med)
Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug): +142K, slower job growth. (Bear) (Med)
Unemployment Rate (Aug): 4.2%, stable labor market. (Neutral) (Low)
Manufacturing & Economic Indices
NY Empire Index: -4.7, manufacturing contraction. (Bear) (High)
Philly Fed Index: -7.0, economic softness. (Bear) (High)
Industrial Production (July): -0.6%, manufacturing weakness. (Bear) (High)
ISM PMI (Aug): 47.2, contraction. (Bear) (High)
Housing Market Indicators
NAHB Housing Index: 41, worsening conditions. (Neutral) (Med)
Building Permits (Aug): 1.475M, improving future construction. (Bull) (Med)
Existing Home Sales (Aug): 3.86M, below expectations. (Bear) (High)
Consumer Activity
Personal Income (July): +0.3%, higher earnings. (Bull) (Low)
Personal Spending (July): +0.5%, strong demand. (Bull) (Low)
Retail Sales (July): +1%, strong consumer activity. (Bull) (Med)
Retail Sales (Aug): +0.1%, below expectations. (Bear) (Med)
Durable Goods (July): +9.9%, strong demand. (Bull) (High)
Monetary Policy
Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sept): 5.5%, holding, but risks remain. (Neutral) (High)
Broader Economic Risks
Deflation Risks: Lower demand = reduced earnings, higher debt. (Bear) (Med)
Yen Carry Trade: Weakens USD, bearish due to BOJ intervention. (Bear) (Med)
AI Job Cuts: Unemployment could hit market sentiment. (Bear) (Med)
Stronger Dollar: Higher borrowing costs, hurting stocks. (Bear) (High)
TSP Accounts: High risk at market peaks, vulnerable to downturns. (Bear) (High)
All-Time Highs: Markets priced in data, susceptible to shocks. (Bear) (High)
Election Year: Increased volatility likely due to political uncertainty. (Bear) (High)
Global Risks: Potential unexpected world events could shift markets. (Bear) (High)
Gold Market Impact
Gold Sales: Banks selling gold can drive prices down. (Bear) (Med)
Stronger Dollar: Lower gold prices may lead to a stronger dollar (DXY rises).
Higher Borrowing Costs: A stronger dollar increases borrowing costs for companies with international debt.
Stocks Decline: A stronger dollar can hurt U.S. exports and multinational earnings, potentially leading to lower stock prices.
Reduced Consumer Spending: A stronger dollar can also dampen domestic consumer spending by making imports cheaper but potentially raising costs for U.S. goods.
Real Estate Risk
Landlords Overleveraged: Rising mortgage payments may challenge landlords unable to raise rents. (Bear) (High)
Weakening Demand: A weak economy could reduce rental demand, leading to vacancies and falling property values. (Bear) (High)
Foreclosures: Defaults could lead to foreclosures, further lowering prices. (Bear) (High)
Conclusion
Overleveraging and higher rates risk a real estate crash, with economic fallout and potential Fed intervention. (Bear) (High)
Current Real Estate and Banking Landscape
Commercial Loans: Shorter terms (5-10 years), higher interest rates (6%-9%), often require balloon payment/refinancing. (Bear) (High)
Residential Loans: Longer terms (15-30 years), lower interest rates (around 7% for 30-year fixed), predictable payments. (Neutral) (Low)
Cash-to-Debt Ratio: Higher ratio indicates better stability; low ratio signals liquidity issues. (Neutral) (Low)
Bank Health: Poor loan performance can lead to increased loan loss provisions, erosion of investor confidence. (Bear) (High)
Federal Reserve Limitations: The Fed can provide liquidity support but cannot bail out every bank; widespread failures could lead to systemic risk. (Bear) (High)
Investor Concerns: Bad loans can lead to losses for investors; panic can trigger broader market instability. (Bear) (High)
"Pray and Delay" Approach: Postponing actions can create uncertainty and volatility. (Bear) (High)
Final Scores
Bullish Total: 14 points
Bearish Total: 51 points
Neutral Total: 10 points
Overall Sentiment
The economic landscape is primarily bearish, characterized by tightening lending practices, inflationary pressures, and potential risks in both the real estate and banking sectors. Rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties add further complexity, making the outlook cautious.
ES--SPX & SPY all near or above their Pivots--- trend remains Bullish !
Vix & SPX close to their 5 min Red Lines---not a great close for a Put Flipper! --- Maybe da boys run in and run it Up??
Mkt opened down---lets see if closes same direction?? Before all this Mony printing that was common occurance !
SPX 30 min Red Line at 5636--that would be floor for Bulls !--( Mother of all charts)-----However 2 Hr CCI indicating sell Sig Divergence ! Maybe back down to Da 30 min Red Line !
For now SPX Ridin Da 5 min Red Line Intraday Bullish !!
SPX Support Fib at 5703---2 Tests so far--Sooner or later rule of 3 will take hold !!
SPX Trading Brackets---5675--5725-----5725--5775 !
Vix Fib 15.57--Line in Da Sand Today! Vix S1 15.26 !
Nice Chart!---Every Bull Mkt has 3 Phases Up--( Rule of 3 )---I see 2 on U chart ---3 commin Up !!
this entire market hinges on NVDA being green or red, that is very bad
NVDA trading with $3 trillion valuation bc 4 companies buy 50% of their products is a disaster waiting to happen
So basically, What your saying is as gov't causes inflation, the stock market will inflate with money, worth less. I can see that .
WHO TOLD YOU THE TARGET IS 6000........NO BUDDY.....FOR ALL I KNOW IT COULD BE 7000.
THE AMOUNT OF TRILLIONS PRINTED IS ENORMOUS....HECK MAYBE EVEN 7000 IS CONSERVATIVE;
ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU HAVE A FED WILLING TO PRINT 2-3 TRILLION IN YEARLY FEDERAL DEFICIT.
THINK OF IT THIS WAY : FED TAX REVENUE 5 TRILLION AT BEST
1 TRILLION INTEREST
3.5 TRILLION IN SOC SECURITY AND MEDICARE
1 TRILLION IN DEFENSE
SO YOU SEE WHERE I'M GOING....2-3 TRILLION YEARLY OF PURE MONEY PRINTING IS NEEDED AND GUESS
WHERE ALL THAT MONEY IS GONNA GO TO ::: THE STOCK MARKET !!!!!
ALL OF THAT MAYBE TRUE, BUT WHAT YOU NEED TO UBDERSTAND IS THAT THE FED CANN'T AND WILL
NOT ALLOW THIS MARKET TO GO DOWN UNDER ANY AND I REPEAT ANY CIRCUMSTANCE. THE REASON
FOR THAT IS OUR HIGLY LEVARAGED FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE HIGH NATIONAL DEBT.
THEY WILL SIMPLY PRINT AND KEEP PRINTING AND KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD.
Technical patterns: Some say that technical patterns, a supply shortage, and geopolitical tensions indicate that silver could reach $50 per ounce. $SPY $SPX
$Dxy is having a fire sale
U.S. Economic Data Summary
• Core PCE (July): +0.2%, inflation steady. (Neutral) (Low)
• Core Inflation Rate (July): +0.2%, stable. (Neutral) (Low)
• Inflation YoY (July): +2.9%, moderating. (Bull) (Low)
• PPI (July): +0.1%, minor inflation pressure. (Neutral) (Low)
• Initial Jobless Claims (Sept) : 219K, inflationary pressures may persist. (Bear) (Med)
• Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug): +142K, slower job growth. (Bear) (Med)
• Unemployment Rate (Aug): 4.2%, stable labor market. (Neutral) (Low)
• NY Empire Index: -4.7, manufacturing contraction. (Bear) (High)
• Philly Fed Index: -7.0, economic softness. (Bear) (High)
• Industrial Production (July): -0.6%, manufacturing weakness. (Bear) (High)
• ISM PMI (Aug): 47.2, contraction. (Bear) (High)
• NAHB Housing Index: 41, worsening conditions. (Neutral) (Med)
• Building Permits (Aug): 1.475M, improving future construction. (Bull) (Med)
• Personal Income (July): +0.3%, higher earnings. (Bull) (Low)
• Personal Spending (July): +0.5%, strong demand. (Bull) (Low)
• Retail Sales (July): +1%, strong consumer activity. (Bull) (Med)
• Retail Sales (Aug): +0.1%, below expectations, weak consumer spending. (Bear) (Med)
• Durable Goods (July): +9.9%, strong demand. (Bull) (High)
• Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep): 5.5%, holding, but risks remain. (Neutral) (High)
• Deflation Risks: Lower demand = reduced earnings, higher debt. (Bear) (Med)
• Yen Carry Trade: Weakens USD, bullish for stocks. (Bull) (Med)
• AI Job Cuts: Unemployment could hit market sentiment. (Bear) (Med)
• Stronger Dollar: Higher borrowing costs, hurting stocks. (Bear) (High)
• TSP Accounts: High risk at market peaks, vulnerable to downturns. (Bear) (High)
• All-Time Highs: Markets priced in data, susceptible to shocks. (Bear) (High)
• Election Year: Increased volatility likely due to political uncertainty. (Bear) (High)
• Global Risks: Potential unexpected world events could shift markets. (Bear) (High)
Scoring Method:
• Low Impact = 1 point
• Medium Impact = 2 points
• High Impact = 3 points
Final Score:
• Bullish Total: 12 points
• Bearish Total: 37 points
• Neutral Total: 9 points
Good point
Rate of inflation
Like going from 0%-5% is 500% or 5 fold. Say a house goes for $300k and during the same time frame it cost $500k now to build the same one.
Silver and copper/alum want to inflate like a mother today lol. Watching NBR* right now. Interesting chart.
Good luck all
Bitcoin and others. BTC has some catch-up to highs. Mining cost per bit is 72k,
Nations, country's and governments buying. 7 billion people, 340,000,000 companies
3,600 billionaires, 58,000,000 millionaires, banks, endowments, trusts, tons of unions, life insurance and pention funds all buying. With 12 trillion entering.
When did inflation bottom?
with stocks at record highs, a big chunk of that money goes to taxes
even if the market wants 6000 on SP 500, then what?
market is already expensive at 5700, the risk is to the downside, the tough sledding is now to the upside, there is zero room for errors or misses, just ask FDX
inflation bottomed, therefore, the amount of and speed of rate cuts will be greatly diminished
market trading very similar to last spike in 2008 before all hell broke lose, however, i dont see another 2007-2008 housing crash, but i do see an actual recession coming, 10-15% correction in the stock market would be very healthy from current levels
as for the market rebound, um, CAT is responsible for 100 DOW points
CRM DOW and a few others masking things
CAT wont and cant go up $15 to $17 every day from here
the MATH says its time to start selling rallies
IT DOES MATTER WHO WINS, THERE ARE BOTH THA SAME IN REALITY.
THE FED RUNS THE SHOW AND THE BANKS ARE THE FED. THEY ARE LEVERAGED TO THE HILL
AND SIMPLY PUT THEY WILL NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BREAK. THEY WILL PRINT AND KEEP
PRINTING TO PROP UP THE MARKET AND KEEP ON KIKKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD.
ALL THAT PRINTING WILL END UP PROPPING THE STOCK MARKET. THAT'S THE GAME AND THERE IS
NO OTHER GAME.
DID YOU WATCH THIS MARKET COME BACK FROM THE EARLIER SELL.
THIS MARKET WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO CORRECT.
Problem is where does big money go if not to Stock Market?
Certainly not to bond market
Trump Tax cuts will expire and if Kamal Harris wins the election, i expect a big drop in stock prices
not to mention a lot more geopolitical risk within 3-6 months after the election
it wont be hard for smart money to sell stocks at record highs
BARRONS talking about DOW 50,000, that's definitely a SELL SIGNAL if i ever saw one
CUTS ARE SIMPLY NOISE !! IT IS THE FED'S POLICY TO KEEP THIS MARKET UP FOR MANY
REASONS. CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM !!! THEY CANN'T AFFORD A 20 OR 30% DROP IN THIS MARKET.
THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WHOLE HIGLY LEVERAGED FINACIAL MARKET AND THE TRILLIONS
IN DERIVATIVES THAT NOBODY TALKS ABOUT.
there will be only one more cut in 2024 at most and it wont be 50
Key Points
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate reduction.
The jumbo cut “could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate,” she said in remarks to a bankers’ group in Kentucky.
a ton of inflation is hiding in the US STOCK MARKET
cutting rates at ATH in the stock market is very bad for inflation going forward
valuations are peaking and the stock market has already priced in 200 bips worth of cuts through 2025
rates are never going under 3% again
you'll see
ALL IN.....HAVE NO FEAR.....THE FED IS HERE AND THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM IS ALWAYS
READY TO RESCUE THE MARKET. THE FED SIMPLY WILL NOT ALLOW THIS MARKET TO GO DOWN !!!
AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK
I was more poking fun at the choice of words.
Ending the endless.
Did you see the consumer confidence number? Inflation and employment are mandates for the fed. CPI was down almost 31% yoy at the end of August 2024. Fed royalty has come out in numbers saying more cuts on the way. FOMC median Dots is at 3.375 at the end of 2025 and 4.375 at the end of 2024. Target is 5.0 today which is about average (4.94) going back to the 70's. Lots of wiggle room.
U-3 unemployment rate was 4.2 at the end of August up from 3.7 at the beginning of the year. If the revision is anything like last month, who knows?
There's double digit trillions buying and ready to buy more. China is starting to unleash a huge amount of funds. China is going to run up, and us is going to play catch up. Despite the ban, they have 55% mining hashrate. Think the US should start chomping on that, support run, and help to become #1.
Higher inflation I agree with pool. Stagflation is the mortal enemy of the federal reserve, can’t print or QE or whatever this dilution is….
Hyperinflation. What's gonna happen to prices when China unleashes their massive stimulus. Prices are already going back up.
STAGFLATION is coming
oil rising in september is bad for the Fed's inflation goals
if OIL has bottomed and many other commodities priced in US dollars are rising,
then rate cuts are already close to being over
CAT up $16 distorting the DOW
HD up $5
always pay attention to outsized moves
this rally is about to die
WAR in middle east is inflationary
the endless pump will end one day and people will have no clue that it was the top
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