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Amazon $2 Million Call Seller • Strike: 120 • Expiration: 12/15/23
By: Cheddar Flow | September 27, 2023
• $AMZN $2M Call Seller
Strike: 120
Expiration: 12/15/23
*At the Bid*
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$AMZN Massive bear pennant breakdown for Amazon after losing 6 months of trendline support last week
By: TrendSpider | September 26, 2023
• $AMZN Massive bear pennant breakdown for Amazon after losing 6 months of trendline support last week.
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Amazon $AMZN Unusual OTM Put (Opening Order)
By: Cheddar Flow | September 26, 2023
• $AMZN Unusual OTM Put (Opening Order)
Strike: 119
Expiration: 10/06/23
*At the Ask*
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Amazon (AMZN) Put Option Premiums Are Worth Shorting Here for Income
By: Barchart | September 25, 2023
Amazon (AMZN) made positive free cash flow (FCF) in Q2 when it announced its results on Aug. 3. It could also have another positive quarter in Q3. However, AMZN stock has been weak lately, pushing up its put option premiums. That makes it ideal to sell short out-of-the-money (OTM) put options in order to gain income.
I discussed the company's free cash flow developments in my Aug. 4 Barchart article, “Amazon Stock Soars as It Returns to Positive Free Cash Flow, But It's Still Cheap.” As a result, I showed how AMZN stock could be worth as much as $173.00 per share based on its positive FCF.
That would be a potential gain of 33% over its price today of $130 or so.
FCF Estimates And Price Target
For example, the company said its FCF had an inflow of $7.9 billion over the trailing 12 months (TTM). That worked out to 1.46% of its TTM revenue and I forecast that it could reach 3.0% over the next year or so.
Since analysts now project that sales could rise to $637 billion, this means that its projected FCF could reach $19.11 billion. In fact, Amazon made a 5.26% FCF margin in Q4 2020.
Therefore, on a best-case basis, Amazon could potentially make 5% from $640 billion in sales next year. That puts its estimated FCF at $32 billion.
Using a 2% FCF yield metric means its market cap could eventually rise to $1.6 trillion (i.e., $32 billion/0.02). That is 20% over today's market cap of $1.333 trillion.
In other words, AMZN stock could potentially rise 20% from $130 to $156.00 per share. But remember, this is on a best-case basis.
In the meantime, AMZN stock put options have been rising.
Shorting OTM Puts
This means investors expect the stock to fall further. But we can take advantage of that, at least for expiration periods before the next earnings release. To do this we short out-of-the-money strike prices in a near-term expiration period.
For example, for the Oct. 13 expiration period, which is 18 days from now, the $124 strike price puts trade at a premium of $1.34 per contract. This strike price is 5% below today's price.
AMZN Puts - expiring Oct. 13 - Barchart - As of Sept. 25
That means that the investor who sells short these puts can make 1.08% in income over a less-than 3-week period. AMZN stock would have to fall more than 5% before the investor would be required to buy the stock at $124.00 per share.
Here is what that means. If an investor secures $12,400 in cash and/or margin with the brokerage firm, they can enter an order to “Sell to Open” one put contract at the $124 strike price. Then the account will immediately receive $134 from the short sale of the put contract.
That $134 works out to a yield of 1.08% on the $12,400 invested in the trade. If this play is repeated every 3 weeks, the annualized expected return is 18.36%, since there are 17 periods of 3 weeks in a year.
In other words, the investor could make an expected return (a theoretical return) of $2,278 on the $12,400 invested, if this is repeated at this same price over a year.
Moreover, even if the stock falls to $124.00 and the puts are exercised, the investor gets to keep the $134.00. So, the effective breakeven price is actually $124.00 - $1.34, or $122.66. That is over 5.5% below today's price - giving the investor extra room for profitability.
This shows that there is plenty of upside in AMZN stock, especially if it reports stellar positive FCF.
But even if it doesn't investors can make money shorting puts for income for expiration periods before it reports its Q3 FCF numbers.
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Amazon.com Stock Pops on AI Startup Investment
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | September 25, 2023
• The e-commerce firm will invest up to $4 billion in Anthropic
• The company is ramping up competition with Alphabet and Microsoft
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is dipping its toes in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. The e-commerce giant said it will invest up to $4 billion in cash in Anthropic, a prominent startup in the space, as it looks to ramp up competition with both Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
The security is up 0.4% to trade at $129.68 at last check, after taking a breather from its Sept. 14, one-year high of $145.86. The $128 level contained this pullback, after stopping selloffs in August and July as well. AMZN is up more than 53% so far in 2023, with support form its 100-day moving average.
The options pits lean bullish, per Amazon.com stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.21 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) that ranks in the 77th percentile of readings from the past year.
Attractively priced premiums make now an excellent time to gamble on AMZN's next move. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 30% ranks in the 15th percentile of its annual range, suggesting options traders are now pricing in low volatility expectations.
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Amazon.com, Inc. $AMZN big gap above now, 100D held on Friday... 126 next support if we go lower..
By: Options Mike | September 24, 2023
• $AMZN big gap above now, 100D held on Friday...
126 next support if we go lower...
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Amazon $AMZN posts worst weekly performance since October 2022 after printing an inverted hammer candle into 52-week highs.
By: TrendSpider | September 23, 2023
• $AMZN Amazon posts worst weekly performance since October 2022 after printing an inverted hammer candle into 52-week highs.
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https://zoox.com/
Zoox, Inc. is a subsidiary of Amazon developing autonomous vehicles that provide mobility as a service. It is headquartered in Foster City, California and has offices of operations in the San Francisco Bay Area and Seattle, Washington. Wikipedia
Parent organization: Amazon.com
CEO: Aicha Evans (Feb 2019–)
Founders: Jesse Levinson, Tim Kentley-Klay
Headquarters: Foster City, CA
Founded: 2014
Subsidiary: Strio.AI, Inc.
Ownership: Amazon
Call Selling is considered bearish since a trader believes the stock’s price is likely to fall.
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Amazon $2.2 Million Call Seller • Strike: 120 • Expiration: 12/15/23
By: Cheddar Flow | September 22, 2023
• $AMZN $2.2M Call Seller
Strike: 120
Expiration: 12/15/23
*At the Bid*
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Amazon Starting to break trend, currently testing a key moving average. If that doesn't hold look out below.
By: TrendSpider | September 20, 2023
• $AMZN Starting to break trend, currently testing a key moving average. If that doesn't hold look out below.
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Nice chart Amzn for last year
Amazon Insider Trading Alert...
By: Barchart | September 19, 2023
• Amazon Insider Trading Alert
General Counsel for Amazon sells 40% of his $AMZN shares worth approximately $6.2 million.
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Amazon $AMZN Whale looking for a short-term bounce
By: Cheddar Flow | September 19, 2023
• $AMZN Whale looking for a short-term bounce
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Amazon $2.1 Million Call • Strike: 130 • Expiration: 12/15/23
By: Cheddar Flow | September 18, 2023
• $AMZN $2.1M Call (Unusual)
Strike: 130
Expiration: 12/15/23
*At the Ask*
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Amazon $AMZN Inverted hammer candle into 52-week highs isn't the way Amazon bulls wanted to close out the week
By: TrendSpider | September 17, 2023
• $AMZN Inverted hammer candle into 52-week highs isn't the way Amazon bulls wanted to close out the week.
Highest volume since April.
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AMZN new 52 week high
Amazon.com (AMZN) Boasts Technical Support
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | September 13, 2023
• AMZN has several layers of support on the charts
• AMZN is seeing attractively priced premiums at the moment, too
The shares of Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) recently formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, as well as a large cup pattern on the weekly chart. The equity also held its 50-day moving average with a break above the 20-day trendline and maintained support at its $135 level despite recent volatility, which had it oscillating between its January and March 2022 lows and July peak.
chart
Amazon.com stock’s 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) has rolled over near year-to-date highs, with a sustained move lower producing a nice rally earlier this year. It’s also worth noting that large open interest (OI) at the 135-strike could be supportive of any pullbacks.
Now looks like a good time to weigh in with options. The equity’s Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 25% sits higher than just 5% of readings in its annual range, meaning options players are currently pricing in low volatility expectations. Our recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 7.0, and will double on an 18.7% pop in the underlying shares.
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Amazon $AMZN just announced "Supply Chain by Amazon"
By: Evan | September 12, 2023
• Amazon $AMZN just announced "Supply Chain by Amazon"
"an end-to-end, fully automated set of supply chain services that will provide sellers with a complete solution to quickly and reliably move products directly from their manufacturers to customers around the world."
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Amazon (AMZN): One Chart Explains the Surge This Year
By: Lucas Downey | September 12, 2023
• Amazon.com (AMZN) shares are cruising higher in 2023, up 70%. Relentless unusual demand for the stock is powering this uptrend.
Amazon Shares Attract Big Money Inflows
Want an edge in trading? Follow the Big Money.
What’s Big Money? Said simply, it’s when a stock rises due to institutional demand. Top stocks tend to attract savvy investors.
You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outperforming stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.
The YTD action tells the story. Each green bar signals unusual increasing volumes in AMZN shares, pushing the stock higher. We believe this to be institutional demand:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Few stocks have charts this strong. Recent green bars suggest healthy demand. But, what about the fundamental story?
Amazon Fundamental Analysis
Next, I want to make sure the fundamental story is healthy too. As you can see, AMZN has had positive sales and EPS growth in recent years:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+22.9%)
• 3-year EPS growth rate (+9.4%)
Source: FactSet
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary Big Money software has found some big winning stocks over the long-term.
Check this out. Amazon has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has had buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report numerous times. The blue bars below shows when AMZN was a top pick:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of the MAPsignals process.
Don’t fight the Big Money!
Amazon Price Prediction
The Amazon rally has been in place all year. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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Bull of the Day: Amazon (AMZN)
By: Zacks Investment Research | September 12, 2023
Amazon (AMZN), the world's leading ecommerce and cloud services provider, is benefiting from strong growth across its business segments, boosting analysts’ expectations for the stock and giving it a Zacks Ranks #1 (Strong Buy) rating.
Notable developments at Amazon include continued growth in Amazon Prime users, a reacceleration of cloud service sales growth as businesses shift their focus from cost-cutting to workload expansion, and huge advances in its burgeoning advertising business.
In addition to the multitude of business progresses at Amazon, the stock is also breaking out from a compelling technical chart pattern. These bullish catalysts make Amazon one of the most appealing stocks in the market today.
Earnings Climb Aggressively Higher
At its most recent quarterly earnings report, Amazon crushed analysts’ estimates. Earnings of $0.65 per share were 89.5% above expectations of $0.34 per share, while sales of $134.4 billion surprised to the upside by 2.3% and showed an 11% YoY increase.
North America revenues (61% of sales) rose 11% YoY, International revenues (22% of sales) increased 10%, and Amazon Web Services revenues (17% of sales) rose 12% YoY.
Amazon is having incredible success with its newer Advertising business, which is suddenly bringing in $10 billion a quarter. The margins for this business are very high and it is growing 22% annually. Even more impressive is that the advertising business is growing rapidly while incumbent advertising businesses like Meta Platforms and Alphabet deal with slowdowns.
Following such stellar quarterly results and strong business momentum, analysts have unanimously upgraded Amazon’s earnings expectations. Current quarter earnings estimates have been revised higher by 49% and are projected to climb 190% YoY to $0.58 per share. FY23 earnings estimates have been lifted by 43% and are forecast to grow 214% YoY to $2.23 per share.
EPS are expected to grow at nearly 34% annually over the next 3-5 years, while sales are expected to grow more than 10% annually over the next two years.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Technical Setup
Amazon stock has been trading sideways and building out a convincing bull flag over the last 6 weeks. On Monday, the stock broke out above the upper bound of the range, signaling a breakout. So long as the stock doesn’t trade back into the trading range, AMZN should continue higher into the year end.
Image Source: TradingView
Valuation
Amazon has been one of the best performing stocks ever, compounding at 32% annually since its IPO. Additionally, it has always carried a very high, and somewhat confusing earnings multiple, because of the slim margins in e-commerce and huge reinvestment opportunities.
However, now that the company has matured significantly, it is a bit easier to understand the business model, and it now boasts one of the most reasonable earnings multiples in the company’s history.
Today, Amazon is trading at a one year forward earnings multiple of 62x which is above the industry average of 33x but is well below its 20-year median of 80x.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
Amazon remains one of the market’s preeminent technology stocks. It continues to dominate both the e-commerce and cloud services industries, which are some of the fastest growing industries in the world and is innovating new businesses such as advertising like it is in start up mode.
Furthermore, it is likely to be a major beneficiary of the Artificial Intelligence revolution. As companies realize the power this new technology offers, they are forced to dramatically increase their computing abilities. Amazon Web Services is going to be a direct recipient of this new demand for processing power.
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Amazon.com, Inc. $AMZN Thursday's bounce off the 50D and engulfing candle was huge. 140 clear then 52W high back in play
By: Options Mike | September 9, 2023
• $AMZN Thursday's bounce off the 50D and engulfing candle was huge.
140 clear then 52W high back in play
r/s name.
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Amazon $AMZN Tight symmetrical triangle taking form + the TTM Squeeze is on, keep this setup on your list!
By: TrendSpider | September 10, 2023
• $AMZN Tight symmetrical triangle taking form + the TTM Squeeze is on, keep this setup on your list!
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Amazon $1.1 Million Call • Strike: 140 • Expiration: 2/16/24
By: Cheddar Flow | September 8, 2023
• $AMZN $1.1M OTM Call
Strike: 140
Expiration: 2/16/24
*At the Ask*
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Amazon $AMZN Bulls Buying the 50 SMA
By: TrendSpider | September 7, 2023
• $AMZN Amazon Bulls Buying the 50 SMA.
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$AMZN Larger size for a weely expiration ~ 09/08 $138 CALLS
By: FLOWrensics | September 7, 2023
• $AMZN Larger size for a weely expiration ~ 09/08 $138 CALLS
Also had larger DP last night.
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Amazon 2.21 million shares at $135.36 ~ 5% of 30D Avg Vol. So far respecting key moving averages on pull backs
By: FLOWrensics | September 6, 2023
• $AMZN 2.21 million shares at $135.36 ~ 5% of 30D Avg Vol
So far respecting key moving averages on pull backs.
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