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The 8.25% accruing interest. It is unlikely the common will receive anything unless the preferreds are unimpaired. I own both, and fully expect BBPPQ to go to par.
Did you attend the meeting, or just speculating on Martin Lewis?
The debtors aren't giving up, the 8-K filed yesterday afternoon looks like they are grasping at straws.
Read my post, I said it is not a good deal. Shareholders need an OEC.
The term sheet has been released, the common shares won't be cancelled, but are not getting a good deal. Clearly senior creditors and management are attemting to steal the company. Hopefully, an OEC will be formed and get the shareholders a bigger piece of the pie.
I expect not all brokerages will distribute on the same day.
My ALLCP shares were adjusted yesterday.
Not to sure the Merrill anyalyst has hurt anybody with his call. He had a sell on LCC for years, so the AAL opinion is no surprise, not a lot of credibility here.
The only reason to sell this is to right size the position, but no hurry, the tailwinds are huge for the industry.
Mine came on 12/9, which was the next business day. We should see it tomorrow.
Here are a few links:
http://hiepsfinance.com/2013/12/10/aamrq-aal-final-conversion-formula-and-equity-distribution-plan-explained/
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/files/2013/12/Homer-Parkhill-Rothschild-Nov.-22-2013.pdf
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/we-have-a-lot-of-upset-owners-of-aamrq-stock.html/
There's a lot of moving parts here and we have no liquidity, so it's not worth spending a lot of time on it at this point. Well, I guess it would be fun to speculate on a $14 price or $20.
Today is day 1 and the VWAP price is $25.5185
AALCP. all debt payments are capped.
Agree, that's one of the reasons I sold, there is also no upside.
Still holding the common.
I don't know about the single dip, but the double dip can be tracked by following AALCP. I sold mine, it is trading for more than it's worth. Based on where it's currently at. It is saying AAL will be closer to $27 in 120 days.
Not much of an article. He fails to point out the most obvious reason for the shorting, it's risk arbitrage. This happens with every share for share merger.
A conservative play is to buy the AAMRQ and short LCC and lock in the 22% profit.
Since when are bankrupt companies marginable?
Price target is 9.50.
JP Morgan upgrade to overweight from neutral.
The reason it has spiked is the company last week got approval form the court to terminate and re-write several charters.
It's now one of the lowest cost shippers. There is no DIP fininancing in place. The common is money good.
You need to check your math. If you are calculating the value based on the market price of LCC it's incorrect. Do it on EV.
This merger is a 28/72% split based on equity. It's 38/64% based on EV less the AMR pension. That makes the stock worth around $2.40 based on Q4 numbers.
LOL, I have protection and am tempted to put a short on here.
LOL, I have protection and am tempted to put a short on here.
Based on the current market value of LCC, the new company is valued at around $8 billion.
If the AMR shareholders get 3.5% of the new company, the current value is around 76 cents per share.
What am I missing?
No problem. I sold the last of my stock a few days ago and have a large position in the bonds that will last until exit.
What I posted are current prices. The unsecureds are essentially at par, they will also get credit for accrued interest. Most likely all will all be in stock of the new company.
The value of the preferred is about $28 on exit.
The current common will get thrown a bone, likely to be common and warrants.
Even if you think you can calculate the value of the estate, the big variable is still the claims subject to compromise. IMO this won't be fully resolved prior to exit. That makes holding the common dicy. What can happen is stock will be held back until claims are all resolved which can take years. You won't know until the very end how it turns out.
Wrong!, that is a $25 preferred trading at $23.05 and that is the bid, there are no offers on it. Therefore, way undervalued at 92%
Furthermore, the preferred is a trust preferred backed by a debenture making it unsecured debt.
The AMR debt is rather complex, you need to read the prospectus to fully understand what backs each issue.
His math is certainly flawed, otoh, your bond prices were off, here is the current market on the bonds, we are at par plus. I've only included the one's that have traded today. The common is in the money, but too early to say what they will end up with.
Symbol CUSIP Type Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Moody's S&P Fitch Last $ Change Yield Last Sale Date & Time Remove
AAMR3676351 001765BC9 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 6.25 10/15/2014 NR NR WD 100.000 -0.625 - 02/13/2013 13:04:54
AAMR3678718 001765866 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 7.88 07/13/2039 WR - - 23.050 -0.575 - 02/13/2013 13:51:55
AAMR3705059 001765BB1 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 4.50 02/15/2024 NR NR WD 86.000 9.000 - 01/14/2013 15:28:44
AAMR3706334 001765AC0 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 9.00 09/15/2016 WR NR WD 100.250 0.250 - 02/13/2013 13:44:22
AAMR3706336 001765AE6 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 10.20 03/15/2020 WR NR WD 99.000 2.090 - 02/13/2013 13:56:00
AAMR3706340 001765AP1 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 9.75 08/15/2021 WR NR WD 100.250 2.250 - 02/13/2013 13:47:47
AAMR3706341 001765AQ9 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 9.80 10/01/2021 WR NR WD 98.280 4.790 - 02/13/2013 12:27:37
AAMR3706342 001765AU0 Corporate AMR CORP DEL 9.00 08/01/2012 WR NR NR 100.250 2.125 - 02/13/2013 13:47:11
AAMR3706363 00176LCU3 Corporate AMR CORP DEL MEDTERM NTS BE 10.15 05/15/2020 WR NR WD 98.750 8.750 - 02/13/2013 12:39:06
AAMR3706366 00176LDN8 Corporate AMR CORP DEL MEDTERM NTS BE 9.20 01/30/2012 WR NR NR 98.750 1.200 - 02/13/2013 13:15:51
Where did you get the borrow for your short?
liabilities subject to compromise way more than cover that.
Those prices are way better than what you've been stating. The stock is money good.
Where do you get that from? Unsecureds are trading in the high 90's. the common is now the fulcrum security.
Correct, if you were short the puts, you could buy to close the position. Follow the open interest on the options, you will see it decline with every trade.
Right, it's a mock trade. You can't initiate opening option positions on bankrupt stocks.