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Nope. OSK would have won 10k if funds were available. it's over
I will never post here again if FRPT does not get prime contractor (I'm not saying they will be 100%, but they will be prime, and that is all that matters)
Ok, fair enough. When FRPT wins, please be man enough to take your reputation and not post on this board anymore.
The only reason OSK is green today is because of another unrelated contract and some stupid blogger predicting the Marines would pick their vehicles (over FRPT, yeah right).
June 30 is the award date, 90% confidence.
Don't ask me how I know...
Reuters saying awards next week...
Pentagon nears award on new trucks for Afghanistan
Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:23pm EDT
WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - The Pentagon is nearing a contract award to one of four teams bidding to build thousands of armored off-road vehicles for use in Afghanistan, a program potentially worth billions of dollars to the winner.
An award for the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All Terrain Vehicle (MRAP-ATV) is expected within days, probably early next week, said one industry executive, who asked not to be named because the competition was still ongoing.
U.S. defense officials have already said that the winning bidder should expect to share its design and subcontract with at least one losing bidder to quickly build vehicles for a U.S. military buildup in Afghanistan, said the executive.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates is a big fan of the MRAP armored vehicles, which feature a V-shaped hull to deflect roadside bombs, but the earlier versions are not maneuverable enough to deal with Afghanistan's difficult, mountainous terrain so the Pentagon is racing to buy a lighter version.
BAE Systems (BAES.L), Oshkosh Corp (OSK.N), Navistar International Corp (NAV.N) and Force Dynamics LLC, a joint venture between Force Protection Inc (FRPT.O) and General Dynamics (GD.N), are competing for the lucrative contract.
The Pentagon appears likely to meet its goal of awarding a contract by the end of June, said defense consultant Jim McAleese. He said the Pentagon expected to buy 5,244 vehicles for $12 billion in fiscal 2009 and 2010.
The Pentagon already has $1.7 billion in funding for the program from the fiscal 2009 budget, plus an additional $4.5 billion included in a supplemental war spending budget, which would allow quick orders of a large number of trucks, he said.
McAleese said the Pentagon decided to pick just one winning design to streamline logistics, given difficulties in getting weapons and supplies into Afghanistan, a land-locked country.
He said the Pentagon could stave off potential protests by ordering more trucks up front so that the winner bidder could award a sizable subcontract to one or more of the losing bidders.
The Pentagon's request for proposals said technical factors such as vehicle survivability and mobility would be the most important evaluation criteria in the competition, followed by delivery schedule and production capability, pricing and past performance.
(Reporting by Andrea Shalal-Esa; Editing by Gary Hill)
Award could be delayed until next week now...
Don't be suprised if you don't see it tomorrow afternoon.
You're a schmuck.
Suspension is made by OSK, Tak-4, second to none.
They have GD and Ultra facilities to buid up to 800 per month.
NAV had a breeched hull, OSK V hull is defective (see MRAP I).
1 of BAE's vehicles is out (unofficially).
It's the Cheetah vs. the Caiman.
Now go get your shinebox.
MATV will be a Sole Source Award...
I'm guessing Tuesday we'll see the contract. Look for PPS swings on Monday! This is for all the marbles!!
BROGAN MEETS WITH M-ATV COMPETITORS, STRESSES GOAL OF ONE AWARD
Inside the Army - 6/22/2009
With a contract expected by the end of the month in the fast-paced Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All-Terrain Vehicle effort, a top program official recently met with the competing companies to stress the Army and Marine Corps’ plan to provide a single award.
Testing of vehicles is complete and contract award is still anticipated by the end of the month.
Brogan met with company officials on 6/12/09 to stress a single award contract.
Brogan asked all representatives if they would work with the other manufacturers ‘if selected’ to ensure production levels and delivery requirements are met. Their answer would be requested post award.
It was implied to Inside The Army that Brogan (and those involved in the selection) have already made their choice when the RFP verbiage was discussed regarding how they ‘intend’ to select one manufacturer.
The House Armed Services Committee approval of the fiscal year 2010 defense authorization bill, which “fully funds the administration’s request for $5.5 billion” for MRAPs is accompanied by an expectation that the Secretary of Defense will fully fund any increases to the MRAP All-Terrain Vehicle program.
Additional funding secured by Senator Patrick Leahy and his allies will bring the total amount in the FY 09 bill for all types of MRAPs to $4.5 billion
At a Senate Armed Services Air-land subcommittee last week, Gen. Peter Chiarelli (vice chief of staff of the Army) said the service is “very, very happy with the M-ATV”. “We think that is a great step forward”. He also stated that the Army is also pleased with the work under way to retrofit MRAPs with suspension systems intended to handle the terrain of Afghanistan.
Chiarelli told lawmakers the Army is “committed to integrating the MRAPs into our formation”.
Chiarelli also said “MRAPs today represent 8 percent of the total vehicles in the United States Army. They will be integrated into our formations but in places where that vehicle is, in fact, most suited.” It was then noted where noncommissioned officers said this month they “feel vulnerable” in an MRAP as the vehicle’s ramp comes down, which takes nine seconds.
“So it’s those kinds of things that make the MRAPs better suited for certain places in our formation and I know Gen. Dempsey and TRADOC are working to determine that now with our force and vehicle mix” (Chiarelli)
Awards are scheduled BEFORE June 26...
Can come anyday, but my feeling is next Tuesday.
Collins-Stewart upgrade...
Don't worry about the price action, it has to do with option expiration this Friday (and call writers wanting to peg).
All that matters is the news over the next 2 weeks. It's bang or bust.
Collins Stewart upgrades Force Protection Inc. (Nasdaq: FRPT) to Buy with a $10 price target following yesterday's 13.3% pull back.
The firm notes the pull back was likely driven by increased expectations that M-ATV would be sole-sourced, potentially reducing Force's chance in the procurement. The firm said, "In our view, the odds are still good that Force gets something and it still has a chance of winning the entire award."
The firm notes Force's JV with General Dynamics win a sole-source contract, there is 100% upside to the shares into the teens. Should Force Dynamics be shut out completely, they see 30%-35% downside to about $5 per share
Robins Group price target - $11
Thank me later.
"We understand from some sources that Force Dynamics could be a sole vendor award which would double the impact for Force Protection. Beyond FY 2009, there could be additional business with the military as well as in the international markets."
"While the Oshkosh vehicle has met the weight requirements, the cabin could be too small for the troops to operate effectively in the field. The BAE vehicles could have production problems. Last, Force Protection is already producing 50 vehicles for inventory which is a good indication of their confidence in the Cheetah. The bottom line is that the Army is continuing to test all four vehicles. We believe that Force is a likely winner as they’re already passed tests they’ve conducted themselves earlier this year."
General Dynamics to purchase AXYS for $54 in cash/ FRPT could be a target as well AXYS is a provider of high performance electro-optical and infrared sensors/systems and stabilized cameras used in the MRAP program. We believe that General Dynamics’ aggressive acquisition program could make Force Protection a target as well. But Force Protection could also be a target by other major defense companies as well.
http://www.therobinsgroup.biz/files/06_08_09_FRPT_Update.pdf
GD buying FRPT? Seems logical to me...
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/06/05/general-dynamics-commands-and-conquers.aspx
General Dynamics Commands and Conquers
By Rich Smith
And so it begins...
That, in essence is the Wall Street Journal's take on yesterday's long-awaited announcement that Axsys Systems (Nasdaq: AXYS) has found itself a buyer. Three months after the high-tech optics firm first informed investors that it had put itself up for sale, defense stalwart General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) stepped up to the plate and delivered a humdinger of a bid.
$54 going once, $54 going twice, sold!
Multiply General D's per-share offer by the number of Axsys shares floating around out there in the markets, and the General's paying $643 million for its new toy. But if the mere 8% premium to what Axsys shares were fetching Wednesday doesn't wow you, consider that this is nearly twice the price those shares commanded three months ago before the company announced it was exploring "strategic buyers."
But there are even more informative numbers to consider here. For example, based on General Dynamics' sales estimate for Axsys, it's paying 2.5 times sales for the company, which is over three times the valuation the General's own shares fetch. Expensive? Sure, but consider that based on trailing results, Axsys is:
34% more profitable per revenue dollar than its acquirer, and more important still, growing more than twice as fast as General D Add these two numbers into the equation, and the acquisition makes more sense. (Albeit, considering the anemic state of Axsys's free cash flow relative to General Dynamics' own cash profits, I have to say that I'm not a fan of the company, or the acquisition.) My advice to Axsys shareholders asked to approve the deal would therefore be: Take the money and run.
Foolish further thoughts
Of course, that's only half the significance of this week's news. As the Journal opines, the main takeaway here is the valuation that this deal implies for other potential acquisitions in the defense space. General D has effectively set the benchmark by which potential defense contracting targets can value their shares for acquisition, and it's time for the bidding to begin. But where?
Optics rival FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), for example, was recently my top pick in the small defense contractor space. It's growing nearly as fast as Axsys, nearly twice as profitable in terms of net profit, yet commands a sales multiple valuation only about 34% higher than the firm General Dynamics decided to absorb. Seems to me that FLIR could be the next chip to fall, and considering how cheap it is today, remains my top choice for opportunistic defense investors.
Any other bright ideas?
Actually, yes. I'll sketch out a few for you:
Force Protection (Nasdaq: FRPT), a small but leading player in the armored vehicle space, boasts much lower profit margins than FLIR or Axsys, but its growth rates are up to par and its price is awfully nice -- the P/S ratio here is a mere 0.6.
Like Force, Beltway contracting powerhouse SAIC (NYSE: SAI) sports a low valuation. Unfortunately, its profit margin is even weaker than Force's, its growth rate leaves much to be desired, and its much larger market cap means that it's probably out of reach for many would-be acquirers. I suspect only the top two companies in the space -- Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) or Boeing (NYSE: BA) -- could swing it. On the other hand, both of these defense majors are seeing their revenue streams threatened by Pentagon cuts, and might find the idea of acquiring a big chunk of defense market share in one swell swoop rather attractive.
More easily digestible -- especially if taken a bite at a time -- would be erstwhile defense stalwart Textron (NYSE: TXT). Anemic of profit and slow of foot, the company nonetheless sports a valuation that's almost too low to resist -- just 0.2x sales. Here we're looking at a valuable military helicopter business, a leading force in the transition to unmanned aerial vehicles (Textron makes the Shadow, and is reportedly the subcontractor behind Honeywell's flying coffee can-UAV.) Also, Textron's already been in the acquisition rumor mill. Its shares surged in April after it was reported a UAE-Kuwaiti group was making a bid for the company, its defense assets would likely need to be sold off separately to domestic contractors to pass US regulators.
Foolish takeaway
Not all defense contractors are created equal, and some offer significantly more compelling buy theses -- and prices -- than others. But the real point to remember is that bargains do exist in this space. General Dynamics has sounded the bugle and led the charge, and if the Journal is right, further buyouts could follow.
They are 12.50 calls right? If they win the MATV, those will be WAY in the money.
All depends on how option expirations play out... two scenarios.
Remember, there were a TON of June 10 calls bought, so either:
1. The call writers have to short the hell out of this stock to push it down under $10 to make money.. in which case, the week after expiration, you will see this run HARD.
2. Call writers can't push it down, so they'll accept their losses and this will finish at or above $10 on expiration.
Either way, it will be probably between $10 - $12 near the award.
*** HUGE NEWS *** - 1,000k more vehicles to be ordered
I wouldn't be suprised if it goes up to 8k vehicles before all is said and done.
JROC Dramatically Increases M-ATV Program Requirement to 5,244 Trucks
InsideDefense.com, June 4, 2009 -- With less than a month to go before an expected production award, the powerful Joint Requirements Oversight Council has approved a major expansion of the military’s requirement for Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All-Terrain Vehicles, lighter MRAPs bound for troops in Afghanistan.
This and all the latest TWV news is available to InsideDefense NewsStand users
$30 is a bit high. Remember, it hit $30 based on the projection that FRPT would win 100% of the MRAP program, valued at 10k+ vehicles.
But, I'm guessing $15, and then up to $20 in the long term.
Rumor: BAE/NAV out, FRPT 70% (2k vehicles) OSK - 30% . Plus, OSK has FA on their vehicles.. win win.
Check the $12.50 call options - off the wall.
Oh, and guaranteed this hits $10 by mid June.
Cheetah to be the next JLTV.... $30 stock here again.
By the way, are the Feds raiding this site?
If you took profits, you sold too early. Here is what is in store:
1. Blowout earnings - consensus is .10... more like .25
2. MATV awards earlier than June
3. More Force Armor awards
4. Blast wheel technology patent and awards
5. Buyout most likely in 2009
6. More British awards
Force Armor orders, MATV orders, Cheetah orders, then buyout by either GD or BAE. Low teens.
Mark this post.
The big news hasn't even bubbled up yet...
Forget vehicles and think A R M O R. Huge for FRPT in 2009.
Going to be a bloodbath today - cooked books.
Beacon Equity - T/A Analysis
http://www.beaconequity.com/index.php?op...
Force Protection Inc. (FRPT) Trade Alert –
FRPT Receives $17.9 Million Contract Boost from the Navy
Force Protection Inc. (FRPT) shares closed yesterday at $3.91, up 5.11% from the previous close of $3.72. Force Protection is a leading American designer, developer and manufacturer of life saving survivability equipment, predominantly ballistic- and blast-protected wheeled vehicles currently deployed by the U.S. military and its allies to support armed forces and security personnel in conflict zones.
The company recently received a $17.9 million contract boost from the Navy for logistics support, training equipment and tool sets for mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles, the Pentagon recently said.
Force Protection also announced it has received a new contract modification for the service and support, including spare parts, of its Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles. This order modifies the M67854-07-D-5031 MRAP contract with Marine Corps Systems command to enable the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) to place orders under that contract. With this modification, deliverables totaling $69.5 million are expected to run through 2009.
Force Protection’s specialty vehicles, the Cougar, the Buffalo and the Cheetah, are designed specifically for reconnaissance, forward command and control, and urban operations and to protect their occupants from land mines, hostile fire and improvised explosive devices (IEDs, commonly referred to as roadside bombs).
The company is one of the original developers and primary providers of vehicles for the U.S. military’s Mine Resistant Ambush Protected, or MRAP, vehicle program.
In today's daily chart, almost all technical indicators of FRPT are in the positive territory. RSI indicator with a reading so far of 55.89% is in the bullish near neutral zone with the line almost horizontally-oriented and no indication of an exhausted condition. MACD indicator reflects a strong bullish signal with the histogram reading above the 0 level at 0.005 and the 12-day and 26-day EMAs also above 0 at 0.074 and 0.068, respectively, indicating an increase in moving averages. Slow Stochastic indicator with readings so far of 63.27 %K and 59.05 %D is in the bullish zone with the lines slightly directed upward and no indication of an exhausted condition. With share prices hitting the stock's 52-week low of $1.03 March 17, a significant support level or buying entry point was established, pushing up prices 280% to their present level.
4 Interested Parties for RFI...
https://www.fbo.gov/index?tab=ivl&s=opportunity&mode=form&id=1128c5f921058a2b08bffde5721cdc11
Keep an eye on this link...
Right now, there are 4, and FRPT isn't one of them yet.
1. PVI (clowns)
2. HODGES TRANSPORTATION INC
No idea what they do but here is a recent DoD award they won:
Hodges Transportation Inc., Silver Springs, Nev., was awarded on Jul. 28, 2008, a $5,822,596 Cost-plus Fixed Fee contract for designing, fabricating and testing multiple Technology Demonstration Integration Test Beds with TRL 7 or higher Technology and delivering a detailed final report of the results and findings. Work will be performed in Silver Springs, Nev., and is expected to be completed by Dec. 30, 2009. Contract funds will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. There was one bid solicited on Jun. 6, 2008 and one bid was received. TACOM-LCMC, Warren, Mich., is the contracting activity (W56HZV-08-F-0102).
3. MISTRAL INC
Home page: http://www.mistralgroup.com/IND_armor.asp
Looks like they supply armor and may be representing another competitor.
4. SHIPLEY BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT SERVICES, INC.
Home page - http://www.shipleywins.com/consulting-proposal.php
Pure consultants.. probably representing a competitor.
James P, FRPT IR, speaks.
Called James P Friday morning. I asked why FPI was interested in buying PVI? He said we were interested in some of the technology PVI had. I said I didn't think they had anything they didn't steal from us and certainly not anything worth $5.2 million. He seemed unsure, but repeated they had technology we were interested in obtaining.
I asked about the interest in the Cheetah. In my last conversation with James, over a month ago, he said there was a very positive incident at the EruoSatory show. I didn't ask what it was at the time, but I have been wondering about it since. He said the comment was meant to mean that they got a lot of positive interest from a number of countries about the Cheetah. One of which is the UAE! I replied, "Who is the UAE worried about?" and he said "Everybody!"
I then asked a number of questions in rapid succession which I didn't really expect answers to, but which I hoped would draw some insight into his thinking.
1. What is our current backlogue. Answer Wait for the announcement in 2 weeks. Since this was the answer to most of these questions I will abreviate it as W2W (wait 2 wks)
2. Iraqi orders for ILAV's? Do we split these with our "partner" BAE systems? Answer "yes" w2w for details.
3. Cheetah? Articles about smaller vehicles needed for Afghanistan, and army not really wanting to buy RG 31's, but having to do so anyway, because there is NOTHING ELSE? What about the Cheetah???? !!! Answer. We are working on the issue. W2W
4. EFP and BMT? Are we working on making these technologies available for installation on other MRAPS besides out own? Answer "YES"
5. Cheetah Demo vehciles? How many have we built? We were supposed to build between 70 and 100 by March. How many did we build? Answer: We built some. That number was a missunderstanding passed around on the board. What we said was that we had the parts to build between 70 and 100 vehicles.
6. Who is testing the demo vehicles we built? Answer: I can not divulge that information.
7. MRAP II? Recent articles say the program is pretty much dead. What about the funding, some of which would have applied to Cheetahs? Answer: It is as you have said, funding is undecided. W2W.
I ended the call saying, "You have mentioned the information I have asked for, will be available in 2 weeks several times. Does that mean we will have the earnings report and a CC in two weeks? Answer: YES!
I commented "I hope it is good news, I am really sick of this share price!" He said "I think it will take us out of the basement!"
Competitors to the Cheetah as mentioned in Suntrust Article
Oshkosh Sandcat:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Oshkosh_SandCat_side.jpg
MaxxPro Dash:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/4076675/Shorter-Lighter-MRAPs
AM General ECV2:
http://www.serious4x4.com/ECV2/
Suntrust Analysis on RFP
SunTrust Analysis on the RFP
Summary.
Last week, the U.S. Army and Marine Corps issued a joint Request for Information (RFI) to interested parties seeking information on industry’s ability to provide a lighter, more agile and maneuverable vehicle with MRAP-like protection capabilities. We believe this RFI was driven by a Joint Urgent Operational Needs Statement (JUONS) from commanders in the field; and according to our sources, the military aims to order a minimum of 372 vehicles with a potential maximum of 1,968. Considering the key performance criteria in the RFI versus the specs of FRPT’s Cheetah, FRPT’s ability to ramp Cheetah production, and FRPT’s now more established history of providing vehicles to the U.S. military, this could be the first significant opportunity for the Cheetah, in our opinion.
Competition:
We believe the original JUONS mentions two vehicles by name: FRPT’s Cheetah and the Oshkosh Sandcat. The Navistar MaxxPro Dash and the AM General ECV2, a Humvee derivative, will also likely be considered. However, we believe the competitive vehicles are at an earlier stage of development than the Cheetah which has had a prototype vehicle for over a year, already been tested under MRAP II, and could enter production within weeks. With replies to the RFI due by Sept 15th, we believe FRPT may have a slight edge over its competition due to product maturity and expect the receipt of an order of any magnitude for Cheetah to be a significant potential catalyst for the stock.
Potential Impact on JLTV Program.
Last week we attended a Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment seminar that discussed future defense budgets. The consensus view is that the military will have to make tradeoffs in the future between programs – the Army’s FCS program and JLTV may be two such programs. Furthermore, a recently published
briefing on the military’s tactical wheeled vehicle strategy suggested that at the currently anticipated JLTV price of about $420,000 each, the JLTV may be unaffordable. Thus, we expect top line budget pressure to force the Army to choose FCS over JLTV, presenting a substantial, likely multi-billion dollar, opportunity for winners in this MRAP “Light” competition to offer a less expensive JLTV-like alternative (despite potential JLTV prototype awards in October).
Valuation
FRPT currently trades at 5.0x our 2008 EPS estimate of $0.76 and 4.9x our 2009 EPS estimate of $0.78. Clearly, a considerable amount of skepticism exists in this stock today. However, as better visibility develops into FRPT’s
support and sustainment business, the outlook for the Cheetah, and international market, we expect the multiple to gradually expand. That said, we believe the stock could achieve a multiple of 15x our 2009 EPS estimate with only moderate visibility in the items mentioned above. Our price target of $14 is based on applying a 15x multiple to our 2009 EPS estimate of $0.78. Risks to achieving our price target include the potential for further uncertainty to develop in the US MRAP program, lack of success in the foreign market, and worse-than-expected adoption of the Cheetah.
FRPT / DRS made the cut for JLTV... that's what I heard.
Not many people know about this gem for now...
Anyone else buy FPP at $1.55?
And if you think I'm full of it, look at my post on the FPP board.
Probably Cougars! 4x4s
Cheetah in Afghanistan?
From: ben.lev...@us.army.mil - view profile
Date: Mon, May 12 2008 2:48 pm
Email: ben.lev...@us.army.mil
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I have been deployed to Afghanistan for 14 months, in an area with a high population of Special Operations soldiers. I am familiar with BAE and Force Protection models, at least enough to be able to immediately recognize them. Only in the last two months, I have twice spotted the Cheetah in Bagram, though not traveling as part of a convoy. In my opinion, use of the Cheetah makes sense in Afghanistan because of its range and superior maneuverability. I suspect that Afghanistan was chosen as the best location for testing its capabilities. I'm not sure that a Cheetah sighting in an operational environment is news to anyone, but thought it was worth mentioning anyway.
Rumor from Italy order for 400 coming...
Guys, I present you a gift.. FPP. That is all.
In on Friday, 10K shares. Average 1.55.
Have to see how the whole patent approval plays out... could be the grand slam FRPT was looking for, bigger than the Cougar and Cheetah manufacturing combinded.
Order coming I think.... Cheetahs?