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This is what I expected to start hearing based on my post yesterday, but just not this quickly... But if companies can reduce taxes, they would free up money for acquisitions. Nice to see at least one thinking along those lines to confirm that thinking. Whether SHWZ will get swept up in this next wave of big fish eating little fish we will need to wait and see. https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/investment-news/202405020703RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_TUA1NHYNT_1
In the long list of "came and went" runs in the MJ space, this may be the camiest and wentiest of all of them. I suppose now we wait to see if congress will only dangle the carrot of safe banking past the November elections, and then fall back on their usual inaction more resolutely. My one speculative hope in the interim is that if the schedule 3 move becomes more assured as to when (hopefully also not past November), the bigger fish, once getting their taxes in order, may get ripe for takeovers and buyouts of the smaller fish again. Of which I hope SHWZ ends up being one.
Yep, SHWZ gets tax advantages with this change (IRS related write downs, no small thing), but we still need to recover the onside kick of Safe banking and then score with recreational legalization at the federal level. But all that is struggling against a reactionary wave in many states (states gaining more power in the current Fed vs State historical struggle in the US), in places like Florida where Desantis is speaking out against MJ rec use, and others. Shwz moved a whopping 11 cents yesterday on volume over 6 times its daily average, trailing greatly other MJ stocks in terms of yesterday's bump. So we remain a lagger, struggling even to get back to a dollar after this news. So giddy excitement is not really warranted. And I agree with StevenRisk that management should have addressed the settlement the other day, as well as the DEA move, even if it was just a simple, boilerplate statement of what the rescheduling means to them in clear operational benefits. But management seems almost afraid to let anyone know they even exist.
In older days, I would be thinking, man, safe banking is a slam dunk after the DEA announcement. But nothing is a slam dunk for that dysfunctional band of fools in congress. So I remain merely cautiously optimistic they will get their heads out of their behinds during an election year and finally pass something.
Well, I was just wondering if this sector was totally dead at this point and then lo and behold a hail mary pass and MJ is back in the ballgame.
One onside kick from here and super bowl bound
I agree that the CEO search is a formality, they have their man, and this was probably that last test before making the formal announcement. They really can't do more than smaller targeted expansions, a dispensary here and there (and I'm not sure one per quarter is likely). They have optimism, if muted, about the fed making a move in the next two months, I wish I could share in that enthusiasm but I can't. I think the best hope is a small bone thrown to the electorate a little closer to November, and that's assuming a congress currently imploding under its own imbecility will be able to muster a bill to move forward. But with the way this sector is, even a small bone is something. I doubt we see the 1.30s again for quite some time. And even over a 2 month timeframe, I don't see a reason why we won't see low volume and drifting back down into the 50s. People won't be rushing in to buy a stock whose best reason to crow is holding their own in a competitive market, making less but not doing as bad as others.
Damacon did a great summary. Ugly ER, only saved by the fact that yes, it could have even been uglier. Certainly the ER was a poster child for why executive compensation does not generally lead to stellar stock performance, at least not in proportion to the compensation. Without a fed Hail Mary in the next few months, SHWZ and most MJ plays will be struggling. Perhaps that is what the big fish want, swoop in and buy these companies up for pennies on the dollar just before the feds make their move, benefit from all the previous licensing agreements, branding at bargain rates. Hard not to believe the game is crooked at this stage in terms of MJ legalization, rescheduling, safe banking delays.
no vote of confidence shown in the trading today for tomorrow's earnings call.
one of the Canadian pot companies turned in a respectable "turn around" story ER the other day. A sign of what good management can accomplish. Hope to hear a similar story on the 27th here.
The number of posts here is in strict alignment to the volume of shares traded on any given day... Seven more days before earnings and any potential meaningful news.
In case no one saw this - earnings call.
DENVER, March 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Medicine Man Technologies, Inc. (SHWZ), operating as Schwazze, ("Schwazze" or the "Company"), will host a conference call on Wednesday, March 27, 2024 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time to discuss its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2023. The Company's results will be reported in a press release prior to the call.
The Schwazze management team will host the conference call, followed by a question-and-answer period. Interested parties may submit questions to the Company prior to the call by emailing ir@schwazze.com.
Date: Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Time: 5:00 p.m. Eastern time
Toll-free dial-in: (888) 664-6383
International dial-in: (416) 764-8650
Conference ID: 38840334
Webcast: SHWZ Q4 & FY 2023 Earnings Call
Thanks IPS - I definitely think we will see SHWZ at 1%, love the optimism of perhaps 3%. The amount of volume required for SHWZ to get there alone can push this stock up to $3 - $4 and I'd say that's a conservative guess with the number of shares available.
Another way to look at the fund buying is who among their higher percentage holdings have the funds grown disenchanted with? Say that stock is 1% of the funds holdings at the start of the year (and other funds view the stock in the same way - no longer worth a larger % of their fund). That rebalancing to SHWZ could go on for some time as they try to hit the other stock's prior percentage of 1% of the fund - so continued purchases over time to get there, consistently driving the stock up. I haven't taken the time yet to see which of the cannabis stocks are declining in terms of percentage holdings this year in the funds, but if I did, that might indicate when the buying stops for a stock like SHWZ. Say Planet 13 were 1.4% of a fund at the start of the year, this year the fund soured on it, started selling it, and buying SHWZ to get SHWZ closer to Planet 13's former holding of 1.4%. Knowing which stocks are out of favor and being sold and what % was held at the start of the year could be the best way of seeing where this fund buying could end, and based on the volume to get there, what that could mean for the stock price based upon the rise we've seen so far, and extrapolate that out. Maybe too much math for my fuzzy brain, but I'm wondering if that's a potential scenario to calculate among the more elite traders here?
I'm not as big a shareholder as you, but have now about what I want in SHWZ after paring a little more at the 1.50 mark today. Nice to see that volume explosion. The question remains, how long does this keep happening? If this were due to potential rescheduling why aren't more stocks moving in this space, especially among the best in class? Or is this really just the funds deciding to go much heavier on SHWZ and it's as simple as that?
And just like that we're green...
Yes, aren't many days with MJ investing recently that I've felt good about a move...
Unfortunately no. It seems irrational to me for the MSOs to purchase shares as they have, and for SHWZ, usually the red-headed step-child, to be one of the few heading north. That indicates someone is privy to information or a solid rumor we don't have as my only possible rationale for the continued buying below 1.50. Will be interesting to see what happens if we cross that. Nevertheless, I've been selling into some of these pushes higher since I was over-weight here, to get to a more reasonable core position - first time ever selling SHWZ. If I can't explain why it's going up and whether that can be sustained, I don't want to watch this fall all the way back down again when the buying pressure eases, without taking some shares off the table. I want to get to a significant but less over-blown position here.
Thanks - I think $2 a reasonable prediction with Safe Banking. Perhaps $3 if giddy enthusiasm that rescheduling will shortly follow makes it pop a bit higher. The real change comes with rescheduling and the infusion there of more investment buying by the various investment companies, retirement plans, etc. With minimal share liquidity, that could prove initially interesting in terms of where the share price goes. But if rescheduling drags on as some here are suggesting will occur, $2 or so may be the cap for quite some time barring any major changes the company itself may do (sell, merge, large expansion).
Any guess on what SHWZ runs to if banking does indeed finally pass? Interested in people's thoughts as to what that potential upside might be.
Those results are ugly. Not all of it falls on management though. New Mexico is doing a great job of ensuring the black market remains strong, and over saturating the state with dispensaries. The fed foot dragging on banking, rescheduling, makes the current situation even more of a struggle. Good management though should take these scenarios into account and finds a way of gaining market share, not offering excuses, not saying that things are great when they are not, and certainly not over-compensating management for not performing. It amazes me that it has been years of inactivity in banking reform, taxation reform, scheduling, inter-state commerce for MJ with such a huge potential in jobs, state and federal tax, banks getting a new line of loan opportunities (especially with commercial real estate tanking), and on and on. It defies logic.
Right, we have volume, but its punctuated buying by the MSOS. That stops, yes, back down we go. If rescheduling occurs, we still aren't on most people's radar to enjoy the run-up, sure, rising tides floats all boats, but without being on the larger radar to draw a larger investor pool in retail we won't have as good of a run as we should. I think we're all holding for that news, and I hope we run with the bulls when it happens, but tempering my optimism.
at .22% of their holdings, MSOS could continue buying until it's at .25% or higher. Perhaps a compelling ER might help shortly. Glad to see some regular punches of volume as a result of their buying.
the senators recently crowing for rescheduling:
https://www.padilla.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/padilla-urges-biden-administration-to-swiftly-deschedule-marijuana/
Volume back down again today. Waiting for the days of consistent volume at a higher level, not these one off rise and falls.
Quiet remains the problem. Both with the Fed and the Company. If earnings are flat or middling, that's not good. Even if they're really good, there's not enough eyes on the stock for that to matter. If there's no safe banking there's no restructured debt. If there's no rescheduling there's no enthusiasm in the sector. So they may be quietly plugging along but none of that will move the stock. As we've seen, our ERs are largely immaterial to the stock price, except for momentary blips. So its tread water until the fed makes a move in my opinion, or does a better job at pretending to make a move again that stirs some interest.
Perhaps one of the MJ funds hopping into SHWZ a bit more forcefully?
Well, there's some volume finally...
I don't subscribe to Punchbowl, but this has a bit more of a write up on it.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-tells-congress-it-has-final-authority-on-marijuana-regardless-of-health-agencys-schedule-iii-recommendation/
Scheduling change is not assured. Logically it's a no brainer, but the no brainers running the show, including congressional leaders and even ex-DEA staff are arguing against that move. A more interesting article would be one on what the true motivations are for their position of being against.
The DEA reviewing is nice to know, but the review needs to end positively by aligning to the HHS recommendation at the least, but as the DEA strongly states, it's the DEA's call. What that will be no one knows, and all guesses are meaningless. I think MJ remains with little interest until that review is done, and hopefully, when it is done, it's not a kiss of death for the sector.
If today's volume is an indication, after year-end tax selling, there isn't much interest in SHWZ unless some meaningful news comes out. 2500 shares so far, none on the NEO.
Not at 53
Yep, coal again for the sector. Those polls are even grimmer than I suspected. Next year will be taken up with impeachment, trying to run interference on the various Trump legal implications his candidacy is creating - there's fallout whether he wins or loses those cases for America, and general politicking and fund raising for the 2024 election. Throw in the mideast, Ukraine, and it's highly unlikely a thought will turn to cannabis legislation, maybe any legislation, until after the election - just in time for the Christmas break and the regrouping of congress in 2025. So yeah, neither this nor next Christmas does it appear likely any news from the fed will be coming. Rumors, promises, yes. Action, no. I just hope they send out some rumors to clear the table higher than where we're sitting now sometime before 2025...
The sideways shuffle on low volume until the new year from here. GLTA, enjoy the holidays. Maybe we'll get a present on three king's day, if only there were any wise men in congress...
Lot of congestion going around this time of year. close at .61
not sure I'd read it that way. The point they were making was that SHWZ benefited little on the announcement originally, so has less downside on negative HHS news. If positive news were to come on scheduling who is to say SHWZ wouldn't fail to participate in any rally like it did in the past, or rally less aggressively? For it to do that requires both interest and volume which it historically lacks. I would argue that is one of the reasons SHWZ leadership should have been out stumping for the stock, at least occasionally, otherwise they are following everyone else's rally and trying to ride on the coat tails of the other stocks heading north, hoping for ancillary investment crumbs to fall their way.
Right. the pop to 1.00 was done on rescheduling enthusiasm. I don't expect a similar pop that high if such talk were to begin again, you can only do so many head fakes before stocks realize due to congress' continued inaction that the latest rumors may fade like before, so the pop doesn't go as high each successive time. If congress does something material and actually passes legislation, yes, we could see a dollar again from where we're sitting. Most of the investor dollars will go to the other stocks you note, and even the usual big named dogs of the industry first, the question would be how long it would take for investors to see a convincing argument in investing in SHWZ after that. Would it actually get on the radar - my sense is it will lag the other stocks for a while on any move north as it has in the past.
Sitting at these lows chart-wise we're primed for a move but I don't see in the short term before the holidays and perhaps into February even credible rumors of legislative action beginning again to set that move in motion like before. The question remains for me how far we slide in the interim with the expected inaction by congress. For that reason I don't think we're at the bottom yet. And if we do slide as I expect, another ten to 15 cents a share, the next pop may only get us back to around .75 if we're lucky. Again, I hope I'm proven wrong, but I don't expect to be. Good luck.
Of these two, I would prefer and expect a greater possibility in the first regarding interest rates, and highly doubt the second, safe passage etc but would love to be surprised.
"With the likelihood of interest rate declines in 2024, due to it being an election year, it may allow the debts to be extended and refinance6d at more favorable rates. Also, with the upcoming elections, both parties may want to finally do something to help decriminalize cannabis, and get the Safe Banking passed, and the tax code changed to mirror other businesses."
Nice current state write up on the company, and yet again, in comparison to other players in MJ, like you note, no love here, not as much interest, and decidedly less movement than the other stocks off the lows - we could actually continue to trend lower. SHWZ needs to address their lack of investor exposure at some point, since regardless of what the company does, no one is paying attention sufficiently to move the stock up.
Doc, I'd be interested in what would be a price target you'd be looking at to get out on any new purchases. Think it could hit .75 in the near future? Think this will hit a buck in the next six months? My sense is in the next 6 months, .75 may be tops unless feds do some steps on safe banking, and if not, risk is we're even lower than .50.
Someone with deep pockets and a significant lack of acumen. The debt is a barrier to adding shareholder value, and a barrier to buy-out to a point. For both reasons I'd like them to at least address it without just an unspoken hope that SAFE will magically appear and permit restructuring it. I want to see some sign that they are considering options. If it can't be restructured, they either need to greatly increase revenue to get the debt to equity ratio better, or begin reducing it. The current incremental moves are achieving neither at the moment, despite it's good to see them holding ground in the absolute crater of the sector..
as far as the stock is concerned, it's like yesterday never happened and the inexorable slide lower continues. I'd love to see some news matter to SHWZ, except to push it lower. The only thing that could put it on the radar is if someone offered to buy it - nothing else thus far has been helpful to the share price.