Husband, Father, Coach and Philanthropist
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So the additional shares should bring in the neighborhood of $5B. That should pay for deferred maintenance and critical asset upgrades, and still significantly reduce debt. My back of the napkin calculations put a fair diluted share price somewhere around $9. Then assuming box office revenues continue to climb back to 2019 levels, and not carrying the burden of servicing their massive debt, AMC could be on the path to profitability with updated facilities around the 2025/2026 time frame.
I think this makes bankruptcy unlikely, and this may even be a descent investment if an investor can get in around $9-$10 after the hit from dilution. I’ll keep this on my watchlist and might start to build a stake sometime in the future.
The share price does look more realistic, but do you see much upside here? Wall Street is forecasting AMC losses at least through 2024. They will also need to address their debt. The debt/equity numbers I found were dismal even including substantial good will on the equity side. That good will will be considerably less now that the share price is normalized. With losses per share projected to be a bit above $2 for 2014, and an extended writers strike could possibly make that worse. How will they pay down their debt without diluting the hell out of the share count?
I feel like I’m at the Mad Hatter’s tea party. The share price is fake, shares are fake, Shorty wants our shares, AMC is a diamond, up is down, down is up.
Have a very merry un-birthday Prudent Capitalist!!!!!!!
WHAT!!!! A Jr Mining stock that is looking for funding to build a mine is not already in production?????? ALERT THE MEDIA!!!!!! You are so entertaining.
AMC is dead, dead, dead. Massive debt that can’t be serviced. An industry that is as relevant as a blacksmith after the advent of the automobile, and a CEO that is HUGE joke.
You made sooo much…Right, prove it, where is the link???? You apes with diamond hands and free government cash are all alike. Keep hanging in there for the second round of the shorty scam that will NEVER happen. Oh what could have been???? AMC’s game is over, the fat lady has sung.
There is nothing to disclose. I can’t speak for Richard and Chico, but I want to create a place for serious investors to hang out once this stock moves to the adult table.
All social platforms have their target audience and some even assist in helping their target audience. Some platforms attract big money investors, some attract meme stockers and some cater to the shorting crowd.
Tuesday’s move to the Nasdaq changes everything. I suspect without an anchor investor or big bucks in the bank it’ll be bumpy, but I’m hanging on to every share while I ride out the storm. The redemptions were a real kick in the teeth (tip of the hat to Scooter), but the basic reasons to invest still haven’t changed.
Still long and strong. I did buy a LOT of warrants and still hanging on to every one.
I did notice a big uptick in short positions the last couple of days. I wonder why the boo-birds are so loud today.
NioCorp anticipates that, following the Transactions, the NioCorp Assumed Warrants will trade on Nasdaq under the symbol “NIOBW.”
It is directly out of Amendment #4 To form S-4 filed with the SEC Feb 06, 2023.
Page #101:
“To accord with the minimum bid price requirements prescribed by Nasdaq Marketplace Rules, it is expected that the NioCorp Board will approve a reverse stock split of NioCorp Common Shares (the “Reverse Stock Split”) at a ratio of not less than 8-to-1 and not greater than 12-to-1, with the exact ratio to be set within that range at the discretion of the NioCorp Board. The final ratio for the Reverse Stock Split will be determined, and the Reverse Stock Split will be made effective, immediately prior to closing the Transactions.”
From the latest S-4:
To accord with the minimum bid price requirements prescribed by Nasdaq Marketplace Rules, it is expected that the NioCorp Board will approve a reverse stock split of NioCorp Common Shares (the “Reverse Stock Split”) at a ratio of not less than 8-to-1 and not greater than 12-to-1, with the exact ratio to be set within that range at the discretion of the NioCorp Board. The final ratio for the Reverse Stock Split will be determined, and the Reverse Stock Split will be made effective, immediately prior to closing the Transactions.
From the S-4 filing:
NioCorp Common Shares will trade on Nasdaq under the symbol “NB” and will continue to trade on the TSX under the symbol “NB.” In addition, NioCorp anticipates that, following the Transactions, the NioCorp Assumed Warrants will trade on Nasdaq under the symbol “NIOBW.” NioCorp intends to apply for listing of the NioCorp Common Shares and NioCorp Assumed Warrants on Nasdaq and to apply for listing of the NioCorp Common Shares to be issued in connection with the Transactions and the Yorkville Financings on the TSX.
I received the same letter from Fidelity that Woody has. I assume the redemptions will be announced shortly after the vote on the 15th. We should know redemption rate by the 17th if not before, with the up-listing the following week. I expect to see the stock on the NASDAQ as early as the 21st, and as late as the 24th. Likely the 21st.
I’m expecting the up-listing the week of March 20, possibly as early as March 21st.
I’m expecting the up-listing the week of March 20, possibly as early as March 21st.
Do you think it’s safe to say they have likely been prequalified, and now just need to verify and slog through the details?
You are so right. I developed tech of one form or another my whole career, and if you are not fast to market you WILL miss the boat.
Your Beta/VHS/DVD observation literally made me spit coffee out of my nose. Good one!
We’re of the same mindset. The only thing I don’t have a strong feel for is the redemption rate, but I would think that other than the few funds that focus on arbitrage, I think they will participate based on the value of the investment, which as you pointed out has a lot going for it right now. Institutional investors have teams of talented analysts that review their every investment, and I think that should be to NioCorp’s advantage.
LOL! Same here on all yes. I’m also with you on the resistance. I can’t say for certainty what will happen after the up-listing, but I’ve had eight years of where the company is now, and I’m ready to move on to the next phase.
We should know the Niocorp results tomorrow. GXII should be out Wednesday or maybe Thursday. I’m not as confident in the up-listing date, but I am expecting it sometime the week of March 20.
The rest of this month is going to be interesting. Anticipation is killing me.
I don’t see it as anything to do with whales vs minnows. I think the vast majority of investors see this as the best way to get the mine construction kicked off as soon as possible. There is a red hot critical minerals market and you gotta make hay while the sun shines.
I will bet the no votes are minimal. We will know for sure tomorrow afternoon.
Same here. I’d be shocked if it’s not a landslide for yes votes.
Not to mention that per regulations the results will require immediate disclosure.
Test
Ideally after they turn profitable and grow the business a bit. I still think this company will make a great value add to Niocorp. After achieving profitability and some descent growth, selling to NioCorp could be a simple as finding a multiple that both boards and sets of investors can live with. I would hope due diligence should be fairly straight forward.
Until then, I’m just waiting patiently.
Good morning Jan, As the critical mineral focus shifts away from China, and the green movement accelerates there will be an expanded need for master alloys. It also makes sense that as the Scandium market grows, someone will need to made SC/AL alloys. What better partner than the worlds largest producer of Scandium. I am confident it will get above $1, it’ll just take some time.
Mark has a responsibility to the investors of both companies, so the aquisition price will need to be justifiable. A rule of thumb for a buyout is 8x EDITDA. Using 2022 financials that would be about $0.18/share. It makes better sense to continue to turn the company around and get the EDITDA numbers up before entertaining a buyout.
JMHO
The only timing I care about is the Niocorp vote this Friday, GXII vote the 15th, and the NASDAQ up-listing the following week.
Entering the Nasdaq with a healthy percentage of institutional investors, cash on hand, government interest in a low interest loan for the majority of debt funding, and REE results pending could not sound more promising. Other institutions WILL jump in once this is no longer a penny stock.
I love it when a plan comes together.
Let the good times roll!!!!!
I totally agree PC. I see the merger as an enabler to qualify for the EXIM finance package. $200-$300M cash on hand goes a long way to build government confidence to loan the money.
This could certainly be a HUGE game changer. Now I’m wondering how this will affect if/when/how the company will call the warrants. If/when/how will all come down to, do they need the money (call warrants ASAP), do they want less dilution (offer cashless conversion).
It certainly feels like the rocket boosters are ignited.
Exactly. Reading the EXIM terms, the amount NioCorp will qualify for depends on the companies financial resources. The funding from the SPAC likely will increase the amount of funding they qualify for.
This could make the debt portion of the funding a total no-brainer. Imagine if they can land 2/3 of the project funding through a low interest government loan with favorable terms. They now have the potential of $300M from the SPAC and $800M from EXIM.
JUST WOW!!!!
I don’t see it affecting the merger other than potentially lowering the ratio of the reveres split.
Great timing leading up to the up-listing.
Nice DD Wagner,
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lynas-faces-part-closure-malaysian-rare-earths-plant-by-july-2023-02-13/
“The decision raises the prospect of an interruption to supply of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) which are used in magnets as crucial components of everything from iPhones to weapons systems, later this year.”
I have been in this for almost eight years, so I understand your wanting to cash in on this investment. This investment is now at least three years behind where I thought it would be when I started to invest, but the last three years have been tough for a lot of pre-revenue companies needing capital. We've seen a few nice bumps over the previous eight years, only to see them bleed back down over the following weeks or months after the initial move. If I have learned anything during the last eight years, the share price will not have significant, sustained gains until substantial funding is secured.
I don't see any way this can hit $7/share without securing significant funding. Even after the REEs have been validated and announced, they will not be a game changer regarding share price. What will REEs add, maybe 20%, to the projected revenue? Assuming there is no big hit to CapEx or OpEx, the additional 20% will be an excellent kicker to the bottom line, but this will never be a REE play.
Lack of funding has held the share price back. The SPAC is a pathway to financing and an uplisting to open up additional funding and should drive a significant share price increase. It's been a long wait, and it appears the stars are finally aligning for these guys.
Returning to your original question, "Why would anyone buy large amounts with a reverse split on the horizon?" The split didn't factor into the decision to add to my share count. I had not added shares for at least two years, waiting for something concrete concerning funding. Since the announcement, I have added a significant number of shares because I think this investment is finally ready to move forward. I don't care if my assets come in the form of 1,000,000 shares at $10 or 100,000 shares at $100. The "run" will return the same value if it's 100,000 shares going from $10 to $100 as 1,000,000 shares going from $1 to $10. If I own an ounce of gold, I don't care if it's in the form of one one-ounce coin or the form of four 1/4-ounce coins. As the price of gold goes up, so will the value of my coin(s).
I don’t have any idea how long it will take to see your 700% return. I think we’ll see it, but I won’t attempt to predict when. I am confident it won’t happen without financing.
I look forward to the next few weeks to see what transpires regarding news releases and how much of the equity funding will come from GX.
The reverse split will have no affect on dilution or the value of anyone’s investment. The only thing the split will do is allow the company to uplist to the Nasdaq. Many of us are anticipation a jump in share price after the uplisting.
Bottom line the split should not prevent anyone from buying shares.
750,000 total shares traded and green across the board. Not bad on the worst trading day of the year for the overall market.
GXII shares are a good deal right now. For $10.12, you get $12 of NIoCorp stock and it can help reduce redemptions and bring money directly into the Project. Buy GX and you get shares, the Project gets cash, and the GX guys get less of the company.
I’m pretty sure it would. From everything I’ve read about the up-listing and what makes sense, $10/share is the target price to enter the Nasdaq. I would absolutely love to see the price rise to $10/share organically, but I don’t see it happening, until construction is funded and underway, even with the great news in the pipeline.
I hope I’m wrong, and we see a big jump, but until I see it just call me Max The Skeptic.